An important part of probabilistic forecasting is that it is... probabilistic. Newsweek reports that in Hungary, top weather forecasters were fired after forecasting storm that missed Budapest Hungary Fires Top Weather Officials Over Wrong Forecast (newsweek.com) - an interesting sequel to the story of Italian seismologists who were jailed for failing to predict a deadly earthquake in L' Aquila in 2009 (who were subsequently cleared by a court of appeal in 2014 - Italian seismologists cleared of manslaughter | Nature). Misunderstandings about science, certainty and risk of "natural catastrophes" (in "" because catastrophes predicted can be mitigated and sometimes avoided altogether) can radically alter the discourse around climate change - a quality that has been massively exploited. See
Oil firms’ climate claims are greenwashing, study concludes | Oil | The Guardian;
Big oil’s ‘wokewashing’ is the new climate science denialism | ExxonMobil | The Guardian
