Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

Project Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This project from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) EU Policy Lab starting 2023 presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments. An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them.The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans. The project started in 2023 and will run until 2024. Next in the development is an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later in autumn 2024! Download the Risks on the horizon report Read the blog post from the authors  UN Summit of the Future: Risks on the horizon JRC hosted a panel discussion at the UN Summit of the Future on September 21st 2024 on how foresight can complement classical risk assessment methods. The United Nations will publish its first Global Risk Report in Autumn 2024. This follows the UNDRR UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2023. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission published in June 2024 its report "Risks on the Horizon". In addition, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risk Report in January 2024. The panel gathers together experts behind these reports and speakers highlight how existing foresight methods can help to identify future risks, many of which are inter-generational, by using methods which do not rely on a risk already being known. PanellistsAyaka Suzuki, Director, Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations (UN)Lori Moore Merrell, U.S Fire Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)Thomas Hemmelgarn, Head of Unit, EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (EC)Bryonie Guthrie, Foresight and Organizational Transformation, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum (WEF)Timo Harakka, Member of Parliament, Vice Chairperson of the Committee for the Future, FinlandModeratorsTommi Asikainen, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionAnne-Katrin Bock, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Watch the recording of the event UN Web TV Read the insights from the blog

Luxembourg Strategy, the Directorate for Strategic Economic Foresight was part of the Luxembourg Ministry of the Economy from 2021 to 2023. Luxembourg Strategy's core accomplishment is ‘ECO2050’ – a strategic economic vision for Luxembourg by 2050, published in Sept. 2023 and funded by the Ministry of the Economy. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections and to other similar countries than Luxembourg. It prioritises a balance between technological, natural and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment. This vision anticipates three possible future scenarios – Socio-economic Sleepwalking, Bio-regional Circularity and Techno-digital Optimism – alongside a potential disruptive wildcard, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. At the core, it argues in favour of a human-centered, nature-positive economy, with business-led clean technologies and climate adapted infrastructures and carbon services. The Foresight Vision ECO2050 is structured in 10 building blocks:1. Strategic autonomy since boosting domestic production reduces dependence on imports and decouples the economy from shocks on international markets 2. Circularity and sufficiency since saving energy and raw materials makes it easier to keep with environmental and financial constraints 3. Focusing on people, knowledge and wellbeing since societal and organisational innovation creates new businesses, attracts talent and preserves a high quality of life 4. Reconciling the digital, ecological and social transitions since building a competitive economy that manages the environmental and social footprint of new technologies facilitates social and ecological progress 5. Critical redundancy and strategic storage capacity since duplicating solutions and building up reserves of essential goods and services ensures greater resilience and adaptability for the economy 6. Administrative simplification since improving the environment for entrepreneurs, investors and researchers by streamlining procedures boosts the economy by making it more agile 7. Economic diversification since adapting key sectors to new challenges in the name of the general interest strengthens the preservation of common goods and the capacity of the existing economic system to turn transitions into business opportunities 8. Sustainable economic diplomacy since forging close diplomatic and commercial ties with partners who share the same ecological and social values creates synergies of strengths and assets, while cementing the global governance of resources 9. Sustainable and solid public finances since guarding against budget imbalances will help financing transitions and efforts towards greater sustainability 10. Anticipation and speed since planning for the long term, constantly adapting to increasingly rapid change and keeping an eye on developments gives a comparative economic advantage by defusing threats and reinforcing opportunities. The governance of the ECO2050 foresight process was as diverse and rich as was possible with the means at the disposal of Luxembourg Strategy and concerned 1300 persons, encompassing public administrations, national thematic observatories, research, business, federations, municipalities, citizens, youth organisations, foresight experts... Luxembourg Stratégie greatly benefited from international support from the EU Commission Vice-President for Foresight Maroš Šefčovič's team and the SG Foresight Unit, the OECD SG Foresight Unit, as well as from France Stratégie and Futuribles. Please read the full report and the condensed brochure ECO2050 here: https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/publicationsbis/rapport-vision-eco2050.html

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. The study was conducted during 2024 by European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). Read the report

Commissioned by the RCC, the DLR-PT study "Unleashing the Potential for Competitiveness: Trends in the Western Balkans". It presents trends that are likely to shape the region's competitiveness until 2035. It examines the potential impact on inclusive growth and provides examples that could be useful for the economies of the Western Balkans (WB). Based on desk research, expert interviews and an online trends workshop, the DLR-PT's Foresight team prepared the study in March and April 2023. It provides stakeholders with evidence-based insights to prepare for future developments and help formulate effective policy options and strategies. The study focuses on four key areas defined by the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2020: the enabling environment, human capital, markets and the innovation ecosystem. Through desk research, qualitative interviews and expert workshops, it identifies trends that provide a comprehensive view of the likely evolution of competitiveness over the next 12 years, enabling policymakers to anticipate future challenges.   The study provides a methodological overview of Strategic Foresight and delves into the trends within the identified pillars, providing a summary of findings and recommendations for future action. By highlighting the trajectory of competitiveness and its implications, the study provides policymakers with valuable insights to effectively navigate the evolving landscape and foster sustainable growth in the Western Balkans.