Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040

4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece

FAO’s Office of Innovation worked with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim was to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making.   The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking.   The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts.   Alexandrova-Stefanova, N., Nosarzewski, K., Mroczek, Z.K., Audouin, S., Djamen, P., Kolos, N. & Wan, J. 2023. Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation – Global foresight synthesis report. Rome. FAO and Cirad.

Project   Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet the digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long-term implications.   The foresight project coordinated by EU Policy Lab together with the European Commission’s Department for Agriculture and Rural Development aimed to explore the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes.   The digital transition will occur in a rapidly changing world faced with climate change, environmental degradation, geopolitical instability, shifting supply networks, and evolving consumer demand. This study's foresight scenarios suggest that digitalisation can catalyse transformation, aiding in coping with shocks, knowledge acquisition, community building, and system-related thinking. But at the same time, it can also reinforce inequalities and introduce rigidities. Therefore, digitalisation support should aim to create sustainable food systems and robust, connected, and prosperous rural areas and communities.   A sound digital transition strategy should promote agricultural and rural resilience, green transition, digital citizenship for farmers and communities, and overall well-being. Digitalisation should uphold values like trust, equality, power, sovereignty, and care. Its execution should prioritise collaboration, accessibility, people-centric design, and circularity. Key enablers for a successful digital transition include capacity building for digital skills, fostering a robust digital ecosystem, investing in infrastructure and connectivity, and securing sufficient funding.   Read the blog post to learn more about the project. Science for Policy Report   Based on a participatory foresight process, the Digital transitio: Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communitis -report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit.   Toolkit   The toolkit can help decision makers engage in strategic conversations about the implications of digital transition for farmers and rural communities. The tookit includes questions and activities to inform a digital strategy for agriculture and rural areas. The toolkit can help to: Uncover key issues to reflect on when building a digitalisation vision and strategy. Engage stakeholders to develop or improve the existing digital strategy. Increase your anticipatory capacity and future-proof your digital transition strategy. Learn more and download the toolkit.

Resilience and preparedness relate both to coping with the immediate and gradually developing threats, hence contributing also to the transition towards ecological and resilient deliberative communities and society. For instance, we consider personal and community survival skills (both mental and physical wellbeing), deliberative policy and civic skills to avoid polarization and confrontations and sustainable lifestyles based on self-reliance and autonomy. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially from the European research and innovation policy perspective. This project targets toward 2040 exploring the civic (both individual and community level) resilience and preparedness in Europe. We develop scenarios to consider alternative plausible futures characterized by societal uncertainties caused by major disruptions (wars, upheavals, wildfires, floods, etc.) in different hypothetical contexts of reference (where possible changes induced by trends and weak signals are also considered) and try to imagine how Europeans could be prepared at the individual and community level, especially from the perspective of relying less on the external services provided by the public and private sectors. This deep dive is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project which aims to help valorise foresight elements from R&I projects of Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe by increasing their visibility and the potential uptake of their results in EC R&I policy planning.