Deep Dive: Geopolitical Reconfiguration: The EU in a volatile new World: the challenge of global leadership

Airborne transmission is considered one of the most common ways of transmitting respiratory viruses. The reach of airborne pathogens and persistence of aerosolized particles suspended in the air are a significant concern for the spread of pandemic and seasonal respiratory diseases. This is particularly relevant in indoor spaces where most respiratory infections occur. Controlling the transmission of airborne pathogens is therefore a cornerstone of public health efforts to manage and prevent the spread of infectious diseases, ensuring safety and health for individuals and communities. Technologies that allow such control are essential to address the challenge. This report is the output of a comprehensive study which evaluates the potential of the current technology landscape for suppressing indoor airborne pathogen transmission. The analysis outlines two main technology groups: those for detecting airborne pathogens and those for decontaminating air and surfaces. It identifies several key technologies in each group, and assesses their maturity, impact, and potential priority for funding. It outlines the drivers, enablers, and barriers for the development and adoption of these technologies, providing insights into factors that may influence their future implementation. It also explores forward-looking perspectives with scenarios for future health crises and offers recommendations for policy and research to address the challenges and leverage the opportunities in the field of indoor air quality. Read the report

The report outlines three scenarios on the possible futures of Research and Innovation (R&I) policies in the Western Balkans in 2035. Using a Strategic Foresight approach, the report supports policy-makers in creating an enabling environment for R&I policies to thrive and decide on priorities for strategic investments for the future. The scenarios in the report are rooted in an extensive co-creation process with more than 700 experts on R&I from the Western Balkans, who represent academia, civil society, the private sector, international organisations as well as central and subnational governments. In order to provide inspiration to implement future-proof policies on R&I, the report moreover entails initial roadmaps. These seek to inspire decision makers by pinpointing goals and their required actions to further develop their R&I systems for the benefits of all citizens in the Western Balkans.

The digital brochure "Megatrends 2050, Changing World: Impacts on Portugal - a Brief Introduction" is now available. This is a publication by the Planning and Foresight Services Network of the Public Administration (RePLAN), as part of the activities carried out by the Multisectoral Foresight Team. RePLAN is chaired by the Public Administration Planning, Policy and Foresight Competence Center (PlanAPP), in which the FCT participates. Duration of the study: The project was launched in June 2023 and will be concluded with the launch of the final report in April 2025. The document, available on the PlanAPP website, is a brief introduction to the 2050 Megatrends Report for Portugal, to be published by the end of year 2024. It presents, in a brief and preliminary way, the nine megatrends that are likely to shape the future of our country, with a general description and a list of the most relevant potential impacts: Worsening climate change; Growing pressure on natural resources; Diversifying and changing economic models; Diverging demographic trends; A more urban world; A more digital world; Accelerating technological development; A multipolar world and New challenges to democracy. The identification and description of megatrends for Portugal is a work in progress, based on a collaborative, systematic and open process. During this year, with the aim of producing a report and supporting the formulation of public policies, this process will be deepened with workshops, expert consultation and citizen participation. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. The list of partner institutions may still be extended until the end of the process and does not include the experts from academia and civil society who have been taking part in the workshops and interviews. Complete list of the partner institutions: Coordinator: Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública (PlanAPP) Co-coordinators: Direção-Geral de Política de Defesa Nacional (DGPDN) Secretaria-Geral do Ambiente (SGA) · Contributors: · Instituto Nacional de Administração I. P. (INA) · Direção-Geral da Política de Justiça (DGPJ) · Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais (GPEARI) · Instituto Português do Desporto e Juventude, I.P. (IPDJ) · Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género (CIG) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE) · Direção-Geral de Política do Mar (DGPM)  · Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência (DGEEC) · Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) · LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia e do Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana. I.P. (IHRU). · Instituto da defesa Nacional (IDN) · Gabinete de Estratégia e Planeamento (GEP) do Ministério do Trabalho, Solidariedade e Segurança Social (MTSSS)

This foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027), by providing early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. The study, which was launched in mid-2021 and lasted almost two years, has been the most widely engaging foresight exercise yet aiming to support EU R&I policy. Through this broad engagement, the study did not only develop intelligence for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe but also contributed to the development of an EU R&I foresight community hosted by futures4europe.eu, one that is an asset for future R&I policies across Europe. The detailed description of the foresight work and the resulting outputs are available in the final report of the project.  The foresight process in support of the 2nd Strategic Plan comprised a wide spectrum of activities: As a reference point for the exploratory work, the explicit and implicit impact assumptions of the 1st Strategic Plan were identified and visualised with the help of a qualitative system analysis and modelling tool for causal loop analysis. An exploratory analysis of forward-looking sources (e.g. foresight reports, web-based horizon scanning) was conducted to identify relevant trends and signals of unexpected developments. These were discussed in online workshops and on the online platform www.futures4europe.eu. An outlook on emerging developments in the global and European context of EU R&I policy was developed drawing on a major online workshop in autumn 2021 with some 60 participants, experts and policy makers, who worked with multi-level context scenarios and specific context narratives about emerging disruptions. On that basis and in close consultation with the European Commission involving another major workshop in February 2022 which brought together 80 participants, Expert Teams were set up to develop disruptive scenarios in five areas of major interest. Each team ran several internal workshops but also involved further experts and Commission staff in their work, both through the online platform and through a final policy-oriented workshop. The foresight work within the five areas of interest resulted in deep dives on the following topics:                                               > Climate change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering                       > Hydrogen Economy – A radical alternative                       > The EU in a Volatile New World - The challenge of global leadership                         > Global Commons                         > Transhumanist Revolutions Further areas of interest identified were explored through review papers aiming to capture major trends, developments and scenario sketches in relation to further disruptive developments:                       > Social Confrontations                         > Artificial General Intelligence: Issues and Opportunities                       > The Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities                       > The Future of Health A third major workshop took place in October 2022 bringing together all the thematic strands of work and addressing possible R&I policy implications from this work. Participation in this workshop reached 250 individuals over 2 days. Building on the workshop, the online Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey Research4Futures collected suggestions from almost 950 contributors from Europe and beyond about the implications of this foresight work for the priorities of EU R&I policy. This foresight study has been implemented through the Foresight on Demand framework contract, by a team of 40 experts. Partner organizations: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) Institutul de Prospectiva (IP) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISINNOVA) Technopolis Group 4strat   Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Arctik Fraunhofer ISI  About 300 additional experts contributed to the project through its numerous workshops that helped shape the scenarios and their policy implications.