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Deep Dive: Geopolitical Reconfiguration: The EU in a volatile new World: the challenge of global leadership
This deep dive is part of the Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe project.
An increasingly volatile global geopolitical context is emerging with growing threats not only to global security and governance but also to the EU and neighbourhood countries. These conflicts, which can escalate and spread quickly across national borders, highlight the fact that the EU is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to its dependence on a volatile transatlantic relationship. No global institution or authority guarantees stable relationships as the United Nations is often in the position of a toothless tiger. Instead, there is a vacuum in global governance.
About this topic
The EU’s dependence on the transatlantic partnership and NATO is both a source of strength and weakness; the recent legislation period has shown an un-cooperative US President, an ambivalent US-China relationship, and the US in a position to dictate terms to the EU. All this takes place in an environment of major geopolitical upheaval and reconfigurations, with the rise of new regional powers, and the emergence of new actors, creating uncertainty about future coalitions. Growing political instability in the EU’s neighbourhood was made worse by the pandemic, and its economic and social effects represent another challenge to the EU’s global standing and security.
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MEET THE EXPERTS
Susanne Giesecke
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An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator
Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them.
Laura Galante
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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation
The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future.
Laura Galante
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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe
The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression.
Laura Galante
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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 8: The Futures of Civic Resilience
The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.
Emma Coroler
4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth
4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market.
This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026.
Consortium members:
1 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator)
2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers)
3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece
4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece
5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland
6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany
7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain
8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium
9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain
10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France
11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland
12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania
13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece
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Reference Foresight Scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040
The Reference Foresight Scenarios report summarizes the results of a foresight process that started at the end of 2020 with the goal to develop a set of reference foresight scenarios to support policymakers. Foresight scenarios are a tool to improve strategy development and decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decision makers to increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.
The scenarios are four plausible versions of how the world may look like in 2040 and what this would mean for Europe’s global standing. They are called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. They do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, ambiguity and novelty. These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘Reference’ Foresight Scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.
Read the report
Read the blog and learn more about the process and how these scenarios can be used in future oriented policy making.
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ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation
"Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation” (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches.Learn more about the project from its's 3 different barnches. Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. Read the report See the lessons learned from the blog post Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. Read the report Learn more about the process from a blog post Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop. Read the report
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Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries
The foresight exercise listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases. Read the report
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