Futures of civic resilience in Europe

Large R&D-based companies (Big Tech) have risen as major institutions driving technology, defining networks, shaping markets and influencing the ways we live. These companies are heavily concen-trated in some parts of the world, most of them within the West Coast of the United States, with a few emerging challengers in Mainland China, Taiwan and elsewhere. Other continents, including Europe, participate marginally in the development of the knowledge-bases which, apparently, may well come to dominate the future. Societies have come to rely on Big Tech from how we do business to how we consume and connect with others. And decision-makers, regulators and stakeholders grapple with breakthrough innovations, enhanced connectivity, lopsided competition and a number of ethical and political implications for how societies govern themselves. Organised societies face difficult choices. Should Big Tech be let free to carry on unimpeded? Should government break them up or try to tame them by imposing detailed standards of conduct? Should national and supra-national authorities aim at giving rise to new and alternative undertakings able to develop at far-reaching scale and scope? Or should policy actors give priority to an economic fabric full of smaller-sized enterprises that are alive and adaptive at the local level? As with many times in the past, the configuration of the present seems stiff and self-reinforcing. But a foresight perspective invites an awareness of the possibility of disruptions or genuine novelty in things to come. It is uncertain if current trends will be sustained over time or how they will be accommodated. Probing into the unknown can be inspiring and increase panoramic awareness. It also sets a base for being pro-active about destiny. Thus, studying the future(s) is a deliberation to be already being on the move. That is a productive, non-neutral and liberating attitude. A chance for aligning the possible with the desirable. This policy brief addresses the challenge of anticipating of what “Big Tech” will imply for the future of Europe. In our deep dive we project towards 2040 and explore the implications to Europe empha-sising research and innovation policy.  The scenario work, that comprises the bulk of this report, frames debates about industrial change and international political economy with the overarching vector of high-tech activities and offers a balanc-ing, hopefully also piercing, view. We derive policy options for each scenario but also draw cross-cut-ting implications. Could tech-driven large companies be instruments for the European Union (EU) to respond effectively to the challenges of the future economy? Is this a viable, feasible option? Con-versely, have foreign-owned Big Tech already won and will the EU be hostage to the tentacles of such sprawling giants? Can it adapt through bottom-up economic action? For all this, it was about time to tackle these pressing issues. The project is one of eight foresight deep dives of the project 'European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe' carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium.

Innovation is changing in several dimensions. First, the initially closed innovation processes are complemented by various forms of open innovation. Second, consequently, innovation is not only performed by companies, but other actors, like users or non-governmental organisations get involved. Third, the dominance of product innovation based on hardware components is not only complemented but also partly substituted by digital components including software. Finally, the initially envisaged impact of innovation on firms and countries; economic success has been significantly widened in its contribution to sustainable development. Consequently, the existing IP regime is challenged by both its processes and its products, the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). We explore how these changes in several dimensions of innovation might influence the IP regimes, its processes, and products, including their implementation and impacts in the future. The project is one of eight foresight deep dives of the project 'European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe' carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium.

OrganicTargets4EU supports the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in achieving the targets of at least 25% of the EU's agricultural land under organic farming and a significant increase in organic aquaculture by 2030.   Activities OrganicTargets4EU for reaching these targets and identifies key drivers and lock-ins affecting the development of organic agriculture and aquaculture in 29 countries (EU-27+CH+NO).   Production and Market analysis of the identified scenarios to provide a picture of: · Where increases in organic farmland can be achieved · The socio-economic impacts of these increases at the level of primary production, value chains, and markets · The mechanisms that can drive demand for organic food   Knowledge & Innovation actions to: · Identify opportunities to strengthen organic advisory services · Stimulate the exchange of scientific and practical knowledge · Increase and coordinate R&I investments in the organic sector   Policy work facilitating a multi-actor policy dialogue to: · Assess the feasibility of the organic Farm-to-Fork targets · Supports the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), EU Organic Regulation, Organic Action Plan · Provide short-term policy options (policy framework up to 2027) and policy recommendations in the next policy reform (from 2028 onwards).

Created in 2005, the PROSPER Network is the structure of encounter, dialogue and action for the foresight officers community of the French public research. Working both on technical and managerial levels of foresight, it develops an expertise extending from operating methods to scientific relevance and social impacts of forward looking activities.