Scenarios of a Hydrogen Economy 2040
Ulli Lorenz
Aug 31, 2022
In this blog post (https://www.futures4europe.eu/post/hydrogen-economy-in-europe-2040), I raised the first set of questions relevant to our scenario process. Meanwhile, we had a series of interviews with our experts, drafted a list of influencing factors and defined the scope of the scenarios.
Title of the Scenarios | Hydrogen Economy in Europe 2040 |
Geographical Scope | Europe 27—Embedded in a global context |
Time Frame | 2040 |
Purpose of the scenarios | The aim is to develop positive Scenarios: How does Europe look like, when there is abundant fuel (H2) available? The exercise is exploratory and open; in the first stage. How can and must European R&I policy support the transition? Where are the obstacles, drivers and barriers? Are we in the risk to run in lock-in-effects? How to prepare the context for the energy transition? Which developments support and hinder the transition? |
What's in? | The socio-economic, sociotechnical and socio-environmental developments inside and outside Europe that are influenced by a Hydrogen economy and that influence themselves the transition towards the Hydrogen economy. |
What's out? |
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We collected the following list of factors:
Global
Global power constellation
Access to raw materials and other resources
Global consumption patterns
Global economic growth
Role of the global south
Impacts of climate change
Global migration flows
Openness and volume of global trade
Geopolitical stability / Conflict and war
Global Communication and Mobility Patterns
European Context & Policy
European cohesion and role of European Commission
Degree of autonomy & self-sufficiency of Europe
Industrial and R&I policy
Economy
Industrial production and energy demand
Implementation of Circular Economy
Emission Trading (EU ETS)
Economic orientation and development
Regionalisation of the economy
Society
Values and sustainability of lifestyle
Level of integration and inclusion; social equity/justice
Degree of public engagement
Technology (except Hydrogen technology)
Innovativeness and experimentation (from precautionary risk averse to risk-taking)
Electrification of sectors / dependence on fuels
The organisation of the energy systems (central vs regional)
Role and advances of digital transformation
Which factors do you think are the most important for building the scenarios?
Take part in our small survey and learn more about the influencing factors:
https://cloud.foresight-cockpit.de/#/survey/anonymous/Yn6LNdxPQLmw9shbIxzJxA?lang=EN
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EXTERNAL LINKS
Eliza Savvopoulou
609
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Iva Vancurova
816
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Renata Mandzhieva
639
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Dana Wasserbacher
185
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