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Foresight at EASST-4S 2024 Conference in Amsterdam

Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S).

Posted on: 30/09/2024

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First Pilot on Fashion Futuring in the works!

As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its first pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion.

Posted on: 30/09/2024

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Futures of Natural Resources

The 24th edition of the International Futures Research Conference was not short of insightful keynotes, newly published studies, and constructive exchanges in the field of foresight for the sustainable management of natural resources.

Posted on: 29/09/2024

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Embedding Foresight in Next-Generation Transformative Innovation Policies

The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies.

Posted on: 29/09/2024

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Eye of Europe Topics for Pilot Workshops defined

Eleven exciting topics have been selected by the Eye of Europe Consortium for Foresight Workshops to take place in the next year and a half.

Posted on: 27/09/2024

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Join the Nordic Foresight Network Initiative

This is a call for professionals working in foresight in the Nordic countries to join the discussion and to contribute and influence the development and formation of the Nordic Foresight Network.

Posted on: 04/09/2024

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ESPAS Global trends report 2024: The trends, the uncertainties and challenges for choosing Europe’s future

Following the publishing of the Fourth Global Trends ESPAS report in April 2024, Futures4Europe had the pleasure of interviewing the editor and two co-authors of the report about their reflections and key trend insights throughout the foresight research and writing process. ESPAS, or the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, unites nine EU institutions and bodies to collaboratively identify and analyze medium- and long-term trends affecting the EU, informing policy-makers about their implications.

Posted on: 03/06/2024

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Navigating the Future: The Power of Tri-Scope Synthesis

In a world where change is the only constant, strategic foresight is more critical than ever. The Tri-Scope Synthesis method offers a robust framework combining critical, futures and exponential thinking, equipping leaders and organizations with the tools to anticipate and influence their futures effectively.

Posted on: 01/06/2024

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Shaping futures, story by story

Posted on: 30/05/2024

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Portugal’s path forward: Key insights from recent foresight publications

The following recently published and upcoming reports and books shed light on future-oriented insights with a special focus on Portugal. These materials explore a range of topics, from economic development and technological innovation to environmental sustainability and social trends specific to the region. By delving into these resources, readers can gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that Portugal may face in the coming years.

Posted on: 02/05/2024

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An Interview with Eye of Europe's Project Coordinator

Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them.

Posted on: 04/03/2024

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ORION: Meet Your Co-Pilot in Horizon Scanning

Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices.

Posted on: 29/02/2024

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Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This post builds on the brief resulting from one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the autumn of 2023, the core group identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business, and public administration around Europe. We aimed to assist policy-makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today.

Posted on: 25/01/2024

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Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy.

Posted on: 15/12/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 8: The Futures of Civic Resilience

The 8th Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop, which took place on 22 November 2023, served as a platform for insightful discussions centred around the topic of the future of civic resilience.

Posted on: 05/12/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 6: The Futures of Big Tech in Europe

The sixth Horizon Futures Watch Dissemination Workshop explored futures of Big Tech in Europe. Contemporary societies increasingly rely on Big Tech for different functions, such as work, communication, consumption, and self-expression.

Posted on: 05/12/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 7: Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation

The seventh Horizon Futures Watch online dissemination workshop explored possible futures of innovation and IP regulation. The topic proved rich in discussion points, challenges, and questions related to the future.

Posted on: 05/12/2023

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How to be good in a crisis: future labs that turn research into resilience

The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to adapt and respond quickly to future crises. To reach this goal, the project sees Research and Innovation (R&I) playing a key role in building the capacity to anticipate, better prepare and be more flexible in crisis periods.

Posted on: 05/12/2023

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FORESIGHT IN THE FIELD - Initiatives covering the Future of IPR

In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights

Posted on: 04/12/2023

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Prompting the Future of IP Regulation & Innovation Management

Anselm Kamperman Sanders and Anke Moerland, Professors of Intellectual Property Law at Maastricht University, share their ‘expert-generated’ responses to prompts concerning the outlook of intellectual property regulation. The two coordinators of the Horizon 2020 European IP Institutes Network Innovation Society project (EIPIN-Innovation Society), completed in 2021, point to global trends and highlight how emerging challenges for IP regulation and innovation management are already on the table.

Posted on: 02/12/2023

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Copyright Harmony to Unite in Diversity

ReCreating Europe re-thinks copyright codes and the management of creativity in the digital era by looking at the interplay between copyright, access to culture, and fair representation of creators and users.

Posted on: 02/12/2023

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From Sewing Machines to Fashion NFTs: Time Traveling through IPR in Creative Industries

CREATIVE IPR traces the history of intellectual property rights in Europe to investigate how past battles and future challenges in IPR management for creative industries impact creators, businesses and consumers

Posted on: 02/12/2023

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Reclaiming spatial justice in the quest for a resilient future

In a world where the future often seems uncertain, how do local communities navigate the complexities of European policies to build a more resilient and equitable tomorrow? This is the intriguing question at the heart of RELOCAL, an EU-funded Horizon 2020 research project that ran between 2016 - 2021.

Posted on: 01/12/2023

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On a quest for a better informed society in the age of misinformation

How can individuals practice critical thinking and effectively evaluate the credibility of sources in an age where information abounds but is not always accurate or truthful? Project CO-INFORM applied co-creation methods to develop verification tools with and for stakeholders such as journalists, policymak-ers, and citizens, to better prepare for situations in which the distinction between fact and fiction is not always evident.

Posted on: 01/12/2023

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The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities: scenarios & policy implications

A recent policy brief, ‘Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy Implications’, explores the regulatory, economic, and technological opportunities and ‘incentives’ for various types of criminal actors to penetrate the legal economy and derives policy implications for the EU and its member states.

Posted on: 30/11/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 5: The Future of Green Skills and Jobs

The fifth online event in the series of Horizon Futures Watch dissemination workshops delved into the theme of the future of green skills and jobs. The importance of this topic and its relevance for the green transition was underlined by its many interpretations. Its definition is often difficult to grasp, as the meaning of ‘green’ is comparative and constantly reconfigured. The urgency of meeting the need for green skills, through workforce up-skilling and reskilling, in order to thrive in greener jobs in the future guided the workshop. A broad definition of green jobs was shared early on, taking into account (i) new and emerging green occupations; (ii) green and enhanced skills and knowledge occupations and (iii) green increased-demand occupations.

Posted on: 28/11/2023

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The Word on The Tweet: Social Media Signals on The Future of Democracy

Social media provides a window into current debates, social issues and topics that are relevant to communities. This blog post summarises EUARENAS future-thinking work that used social media signals as its starting point to explore the future of democracy.

Posted on: 17/11/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 4: Future of Interpenetration of Criminal and Lawful Economic Activities

The interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities is a pressing concern for policymakers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). This intricate issue was the topic of the workshop that took place on Wednesday, 11 October 2023, as part of the series of online workshops hosted by the Horizon Futures Watch activities.

Posted on: 30/10/2023

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Risks and merits of Decolonising futures

Part of “decolonising” is to question one's own assumptions and asking questions to the ones in power. The term has a historical background that is broader than its metaphorical use. Futures Studies has been dealing with this topic in one form or another for over 50 years. This has brought about a rich body of work, including some thought-provoking and stimulating approaches and methods.

Posted on: 24/10/2023

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Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications

In the recently published brief ‘Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications’, we explore practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. We can see an increasing prominence of science in many public debates and the increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific and other advice mechanisms in the context of public debate.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Curbing the Elusive Force of 'Modern Bigness'

MOBI stretches the legal dimension, searching for normative responses to Big Tech’s composite power threats to free market competition and European democratic values.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Connecting… Futures: The Road to 6G and the Right to Connectivity

Hexa-X’s 6G flagship research is shaping the design of European wireless technologies to be environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable, while ensuring competitiveness in the global market.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Shaping the Skills Needed for the Future of Automated Mobility

In the fast-moving realm of mobility, one fact stands out: the road to success requires new skills. To meet evolving customer needs, embrace cutting-edge technologies, and fulfil environmental commit-ments, the transport sector is turning to automation for sustainable, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility solutions. However, the interplay between automation, reskilling, and sustainability is more complex than meets the eye.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Connected Factories and their pathways for a circular economy

A successful shift to a circular economy requires multidisciplinary skillsets that integrate both business and technology aspects. However, circular economy or sustainability practices are not often seen as competitive advantages for companies. The ConnectedFactories project focussed on devising potential pathways to digital manufacturing, including circular economy from a broader perspective.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility

In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Now Hiring: Low-Carbon Specialists for a Sustainable Europe

Project INNOPATHS explores different forward-looking scenarios leading to a completely decarbonised Europe by 2050. How attainable are these pathways and what are the skills in demand?

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Addressing underlying assumptions: Tips and Tricks on Horizon Scanning

The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks.' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so.

Posted on: 06/10/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 3: Future of Science for Policy in Europe

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of Science for Policy in Europe ' project.

Posted on: 06/09/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 2: Future of Land and Sea Use

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050' project.

Posted on: 01/09/2023

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Horizon Futures Watch Workshop 1: Future of Social Confrontations

This blog post summarizes the dissemination event held for the 'Future of Social Confrontations' project.

Posted on: 01/09/2023

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Design Futures Art-Driven Methodology: Shaping the Future of Innovation

Merging Design Futures and Art Thinking approaches for responsible, sustainable and future-proof innovation.

Posted on: 30/08/2023

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Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Scenarios

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here the four scenarios developed.

Posted on: 14/08/2023

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Futures of using nature in rural and marine Europe in 2050: Policy implications

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed.

Posted on: 14/08/2023

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The Future of Social Confrontations – the Scenarios

Social confrontations signify the struggle about how we want to shape our futures. Rooted in different narratives represented by different social groups they are often competing for the sovereignty of interpretation of what a particular future may look like and how we are to achieve it. Social confrontations are not a singular phenomenon; instead, we live in a world of multiple social confrontations, and they co-exist, overlap, and compete. The divides social confrontations create can go across all spheres of life: education, care, health, nutrition, energy, mobility, communication, race, gender, political power, migration, etc. This blog post explores how these developments are likely to impact the futures of democracy in Europe. To this end, we present four scenarios that chart diverging pathways on how social confrontations could evolve in the next 15 years under various drivers and trends and what role they could play for the democratic development in the EU. The four scenarios discuss various development paths - they are intended to explore diver-gent possibilities and do not always depict a preferable future.

Posted on: 03/08/2023

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The Future of Social confrontations – Policy implications

Posted on: 03/08/2023

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Nature's Barcode: The Exciting Frontier of Plant Tracking

Under Pl@ntNet’s polar star, GUARDEN brings citizen science and predictive machine learning together to support decision-making in biodiversity conservation.

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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Futureproofing Public Health Systems by Teaching Foresight

Future thinking capacity-building initiatives like PHIRI (https://www.phiri.eu/) invite policymakers to lend their ears to extreme and value-driven scenarios in post-pandemic population health.

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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INTERVIEW: Putting Cities at the Centre

SPROUT empowers cities to face urban transformation and disruptive innovation in sustainable mobility through the co-creation of resilient mobility policies.

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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Foresight in the Field: How Europol uses foresight to anticipate the criminals of the future

With the rise of new digital technologies, crime is evolving in new and unpredictable directions. To re-duce their impact, it is becoming increasingly vital to anticipate their course.

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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Shaping the Future of AI in Policing: ALIGNER's Pragmatic Approach

ALIGNER aspires to rally European stakeholders anxious about AI's role in law enforcement. The project's goal is to create a unified front to identify strategies that will not only bolster the strength of law enforcement agencies through AI but also ensure public benefit. But how far into the future is it useful to look?

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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Tackling Security Concerns

The world of hybrid threats presents a complex and ever-evolving landscape where traditional and non-tradi-tional methods intertwine. With the rise of these multifaceted challenges, safeguarding the integrity of European democracies has become an urgent imperative. Initiatives like EU-HYBNET (https://euhybnet.eu/) aim to enhance preparedness and to establish a European network to counter hybrid threats.

Posted on: 11/07/2023

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Présentation intermédiaire publique de la vision stratégique pour l'économie luxembourgeoise en 2050

I very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event on 5 June 2023 presenting its draft vision for the Economy in 2050. Here is a country leading the way by setting out how to reach a zero-carbon future.

Posted on: 30/06/2023

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INSPIRE 2023: Art and Futures

The Inspire project has been running at MOMus since 2012. In a fascinating anarchic creative environment, young artists are invited to create original artworks in one week under the guidance of an established artist. At the same time, curators are invited to set up the exhibition just hours before the official opening.

Posted on: 23/05/2023

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INTERVIEW: The Changing Face of Public Protest

Street protests are just one aspect of social conflict, but often one of the first that come to mind. Despite the growth of online activism, street demonstrations are as significant as ever.

Posted on: 14/05/2023

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Exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments relevant for EU R&I policies

The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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The Elephant in the Room Is Getting Old

Nobody wants to die early. The desire to stay healthy and to have a long-lasting life is enormous. At first glance, it seems as if the increasing number of older people in the EU is in accordance with that. When having a closer look at that trend, three main factors seem to contribute to an overall older population: a generally increased life expectancy, a modern, readily accessible medical system, healthier lifestyles, and low birth rates. Migration is a counter-trend to the ageing society, as the majority of migrants to the EU are young families. This fact, however, does not substantially diminish the absolute number of older people in the EU. The potential consequences are diverse. Although people get older while being healthier, it is likely that the cost of health care will rise, putting an extra burden on the health insurance system. Hence, we might have to expect a clear social divide: Will only rich people be able to afford to get old? Or are the additional health-related costs going to be shifted to younger generations? Will the state have to step in?

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Developing Context Scenarios for Future EU R&I policies

What types of EU R&I policies would be effective in the years to come? How shall these policies help us explore and respond to the uncertainties of the future?
Finding answers to these questions requires first of all imagining the context, in which future EU R&I policies might be situated. For doing this, we need to explore developments both at global level and within the European Union.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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How scenarios could support the orientation of R&I agendas

Making use of the four “Imaginaries for a Sustainable Europe[1] in 2050”presented by the European Environment Agency and the Eionet[2]

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Czech Priorities: Megatrends and Grand Societal Challenges Summary

A proposal for a methodology to identify Megatrends and Grand societal challenges with a significance for Research and Innovation in the Czech Republic

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Global race on hydrogen

After its hydrogen strategy in 2020, the EU has recognize d hydrogen as a key technology for achieving policy goals such as the European Green Deal. Its strategy is heavily focused on emissions-free green hydrogen, with a target to install 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyser capacity by 2030. How Europe is positioned against other global players in the race on hydrogen?

In 2019, around 120 million tonnes of hydrogen were produced globally, two-thirds of which is pure hydrogen and one-third of which is a mixture with other gases. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, followed by the US and India (Figure 1). 

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Emerging challenges for global commons

The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the global commons concept has become more complex.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Hydrogen Economy in "Europe 2040"

Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Technological Fix

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, Prof. Benjamin Sovacool, together with the other members of the expert team, are developing, among others, this 'technological fix' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Green Dream

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Coalition of Sustainable communities

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'coalition of sustainable communities' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Scenarios of a Hydrogen Economy 2040

In this blog post (https://www.futures4europe.eu/post/hydrogen-economy-in-europe-2040), I raised the first set of questions relevant to our scenario process. Meanwhile, we had a series of interviews with our experts, drafted a list of influencing factors and defined the scope of the scenarios.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Alternative Climate Scenarios 2040: Deepening Divisions

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Global Commons: Definitions, concepts and perspectives – Towards a Taxonomy

Global commons have been traditionally defined as those parts of the planet that fall outside national jurisdictions and to which all nations have access. International law identifies four global commons, namely the High Seas, the Atmosphere, the Antarctica and the Outer Space (1). These resource domains are guided by the principle of the common heritage of mankind. Resources of interest or value to the welfare of the community of nations – such as tropical rain forests and biodiversity - have lately been included among the traditional set of global commons as well, while some define the global commons even more broadly, including science, education, information and peace. To incorporate the potential for overuse by some at the expense of others, they can also include the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice sheets, a stable climate and biodiversity (2).

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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S&T&I for 2050 Project Approach and Methodology

The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks:

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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S&T&I for 2050 Perspectives on Ecosystem Performance

“S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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S&T&I for 2050: deep-sea mining and ecosystem performance

There are an estimated billions of tonnes of strategic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, lying on the ocean’s floor. Technological advance, financial viability, and regulatory frameworks are slowly aligning to permit deep-sea mining (DSM). While many rejoice in these developments, a variety of actors are calling for a moratorium on the nascent industry. Most notably, the European Commission released a Joint Communication stating that not enough knowledge about the risks of DSM is available and that more research is to be conducted to make DSM sustainable[i]. With deep-sea mining closer than ever to becoming a reality on the one hand, and calls for a moratorium on the other hand, it is important to discuss future directions of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) for a flourishing deep-sea ecosystem.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Global Hydrogen Justice: How can green hydrogen contribute to a just energy transition for all?

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Since hydrogen energy, in particular green hydrogen, is increasingly regarded as an important energy carrier in the EU's transition strategies towards a carbon-neutral future, questions concerning both the shape and size of a hydrogen economy need to be asked now. Green hydrogen, it is assumed, can play a significant role in the de-carbonization of high-energy-intensive industries and (some means of) transport as it can both deliver and store a tremendous amount of energy. For hydrogen energy to be sustainable - in other words, for it to be "green" - it must be produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar. However, since at least in some EU countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, the potential of renewable energy production is limited in the sense that it won't be able to meet projected green hydrogen demands, policymakers are increasingly looking to establish international partnerships to produce green hydrogen outside the EU and import it for national use - with a particular focus on countries in the Global South.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Socioeconomic and socio-political Scenarios shaping the European Hydrogen Economy of 2040

What could a European energy system that includes hydrogen look like in 2040 in the context of different global, political, economic and social constellations in and around the continent?

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Discussing future hydrogen geographies in Europe: a conversation that is overdue

The transition to renewable energy in Europe has evolved dynamically since the turn of the century. The share of renewable energy in the European Union more than doubled between 2004 and 2022. Nevertheless, renewable energy represents only 22 percent of overall energy consumption and 37 percent of electricity generation in the EU. In other words, Europe still has a long way to go, even when it comes to the relatively easy task of converting its electricity production to renewables.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

Scale matters in green-hydrogen

To be of relevance to energy, green hydrogen and related technologies need to be scaled up hugely. To reach such a mass market, a low-cost clean-hydrogen supply must be available. However, to lower the price of hydrogen, much larger H2-markets and volumes are needed. The scale and the cost (of green hydrogen) go hand in hand. But they also form a classical Chicken and Egg problem, which many now successful clean energy technologies have likewise faced in the past and managed to overcome.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

The EU in a Volatile New World: Challenge of Global Leadership

by AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Innovation Systems and Policy The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned the post-cold war world order upside down, and we are witnessing new global power constellations, block-building, and uncertainties that affect not only issues of military, deterrence, and defense but also the global economy, prosperity, and the social situation of the people. In the midst of this turmoil, the EU is confronted with finding a proper position and redefining its policies, its foreign, as well as internal relations. There is a chance for a proactive new neighborhood policy. Will the EU seize the momentum?

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

Is Hydrogen That Good for the Climate?

The answer is probably, a classic: "it depends". Hydrogen is the smallest and lightest molecule in the world. It is about eight times lighter than methane. There's a lot of methane leakage around the world. And by "a lot", I really mean a lot. Satellite imagery by the European Space Agency collected data that proves there is significantly more leakage in the atmosphere than official estimates. And methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere (Source: Environmental Defense Fund - EDF). Some of this methane leakage is due to sheer industry negligence (oil and gas companies have been proven to do routine gas flaring), but also to bad casings, old pipes, and all sorts of infrastructure mishaps that are bound to happen in any industry. Now imagine how much easier is for hydrogen - a much lighter molecule than methane - to escape and leak, particularly when we blend it with natural gas in existing pipelines, as is the case in the plans of many countries in Europe - including Romania, my home country.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

Artificial General Intelligence Issues and Opportunities

National governments and multi-lateral organizations like the European Union, OECD, and UNESCO have identified values and principles for artificial narrow intelligence and national strategies for its development. But little attention has been given to identifying the beneficial initial conditions for future Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The initial conditions for AGI will determine if Artificial Super Intelligence will evolve to benefit humanity or not. Even if international agreements are reached on the beneficial initial conditions for AGI, a global governance system will still be needed to enforce them and oversee the development and management of AGI. Since it may take ten, twenty, or more years to create and ratify an international AGI treaty and establish a global AGI governance system, and since some experts believe it is possible to have AGI within ten to twenty years, it is therefore important to work on these issues as soon as possible. The most critical AGI issues are its initial conditions and global governance. These issues are important for governments to get right from the outset. The Millennium Project is currently exploring these issues. https://www.millennium-project.org/transition-from-artificial-narrow-to-artificial-general-intelligence-governance/

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

FORESIGHT IN THE FIELD - The Mutual Learning Exercise

Sharing lessons learned in foresight practices and experiences is important for the exchange for an impactful foresight community. The Mutual Learning Exercise can help foster community building and foresight capacities in different member states.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

From Reactive to Proactive: Cultivating a Culture of Foresight for Post-Pandemic Governance

Proposed scenarios about the future should come with a pinch of salt. Without being perfectly accurate, they help prepare policymakers for better or worse. The REGROUP project funded under the Horizon Europe programme aims to advise the EU on how to address post-pandemic policy and institutional challenges by analysing the societal and political consequences of COVID-19 and considering the normative implications of the pandemic.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

‘Going rural’ - Managing Land Access (and Use) to support rural futures

Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

Harvesting Hope: Future-Proofing Plants for Bountiful 2050 Crop Yields

Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

FORESIGHT ON LAND AND SEA USE - Addressing the degradation of ecosystems through scenario-making

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 2 years ago

How Combining Participatory Democracy and Foresight Practices Can Foster Political Innovation

A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches.

Posted on: 12/05/2023

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Last Edited: 11 hours ago

Eye of Europe Mutual Learning Event: Policy Oriented Communication of Foresight Results

The report provides a brief overview of the insights captured during the second Mutual Learning Event (MLE2) which was held online on September 26, 2024.
The MLE2 addressed topic of policy oriented communication of foresight results.
The topic brought information on:
• The strategies for effective communication of foresight results to policymakers and gaining stakeholders buy-in,
• The role of clear communication in translating foresight into actionable policies,
• Fostering foresight in R&I policy making process,
• Translating of complex foresight results into clear, concise and policy relevant messages,
• The identification of key stakeholders in policy making process,
• Tailoring engagement strategies.
The format of the Mutual Learning Events is designed with an emphasis on the interactive sessions where all participants can share their experience, ideas and questions. As part of the last event, group and plenary discussions in three interactive sessions were framed by five keynotes.
The following MLE2 highlights emerged from the discussion:
• Forward-looking activities face a range of challenges in communication,
• Presenting data only seems to be insufficient for the modern communication of foresight results,
• The rapid evolution of digital technology including generative AI and social media offer for foresight practitioners new approaches to communicate,
• Different media can be used for targeting different groups of audience,
• Tailoring forward-looking messages for different audiences is an approach to avoiding misunderstanding or misinterpretation,
• Uncertainty may also depend whether the forward-looking activities can predict future risk and benefits., therefore is always necessary to rely on evidence-based materials.
Five MLEs are planned in the Eye of Europe project, a Horizon Europe project which aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research & Innovation policy-making across Europe and to foster a vibrant, cohesive R&I foresight community that contribute significantly, as a collective intelligence to shaping and guiding policy decisions. The third Mutual Learning Event “Integration of Foresight into the Research & Innovation Policy Cycle will be held on January 21st, 2025 also in an online format. The event will open a discussion on the need for adaptive and flexible policy frameworks to respond to rapidly changing technological, economic and societal landscapes.

All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by the Technology Centre Prague (TC), Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and participatory as well as expert based foresight activities.

Posted on: 10/12/2024

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Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions

❓ Why hasn't the government gotten back to us about this great foresight study we did? 


If you are involved in #PolicyOrientedForesight, #AnticipatoryGovernance and #StrategicIntelligence, you may have questioned the fit and impact of your work on policy. In our new publication, Philine Warnke, Sylvia Veit and I problematize these complicated foresight-policy interactions.

📖 "Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions" --> https://lnkd.in/eUrjFE9M

We propose "institutionalization" as a process that shapes the formation of working practices and routines along four dimensions. Rather than trying to measure how foresight affects policy decisions, we are looking at how institutionalization affects the government's ability to absorb, interpret, and adopt anticipatory practices.

Our findings
-Decades of research on policy advice have taught us that simply providing 'better' methods does not necessarily result in 'greater' impact.
- We argue that one conducive factor for avoiding loose ends in foresight-policy interactions and facilitating absorption of results consists in its institutionalization along all dimensions (organizational, regulative, normative, and cognitive-cultural).
- foresight does not align well with the existing structures and procedures of the federal ministerial bureaucracy in Germany which are characterized by a strong departmental principle, resulting in ‘turf wars’ and ‘negative coordination’.
- The findings of our research suggest that a purely rationalist approach to the adaptation of foresight is inadequate.

This work represents the academic spin-off for an international readership of a study commissioned by the German Federal Chancellery and published in 2022.
--> https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/studie-strategische-vorausschau-2059782 

Posted on: 05/11/2024

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Last Edited: a month ago

Shaping futures, story by story

Posted on: 31/10/2024

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Last Edited: 2 months ago

The future of Europe: futures imagined by Greek citizens

What will Europe look like in 2040? How will we travel, how will our society be organised, how will our schools function and what kind of jobs will people have? These are just some of the questions we have been asking Europeans to reflect on as part of the #OurFutures project launched by the EU Policy Lab. Through it, we collect EU citizens' images through a narrative inquiry method.

We recently did this in Greece, in close collaboration with foresight experts in the Greek government by reaching out to Greek citizens to gain insights into how people in this part of Europe would like the future to look like.

We have spoken to Epaminondas Christophilopoulos (UNESCO chair on Futures research at the Foundation for Research and Technology) and Vivian Efthimiopoulou (communication expert), focusing on some of their findings which demonstrate the value of citizen-generated future images for developing people-centric policies at both national and EU level.

Posted on: 24/10/2024

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The future of Europe: what do you imagine it will look like?

We invited people across the EU to share their imagined futures. For this collection we, the European Commission’s Competence Centre on Foresight, used a narrative inquiry method. Instead of asking opinions about the future, we asked participants to share a story about their desirable future, followed by a few questions about that story, in order to more fully comprehend their thinking. In this process we were guided by Voices That Count.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the first 591 stories of people that participated so far, mostly from Greece and Slovenia, followed by Germany, Spain and Italy. Approximately half of them are students, and the other half mainly consists of employed people. 

  

Posted on: 18/10/2024

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Last Edited: 5 days ago

Foresight kit for entrepreneurial minds

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Posted on: 05/12/2024

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Last Edited: 5 days ago

Knowledge Sharing | Future(s) of Foresight in Czechia

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Posted on: 05/12/2024

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Last Edited: 7 days ago

EU Missions – Responsibility, Co-Creation and Design Thinking

FREE Webinar and Networking Event
EU Missions provide new funding opportunities for impact oriented research and innovation projects in Horizon Europe, the world’s largest research and innovation programme.

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Posted on: 04/12/2024

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Last Edited: 7 days ago

Futures4Europe Gathering & Networking

During this event, we will shortly introduce new platform features and how to participate before we open the conversation and provide the opportunity for 1:1 networking. We believe that in current times of social distancing and uncertainty, these human connections inspire our thinking.

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Posted on: 04/12/2024

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Last Edited: 7 days ago

Futures of using nature: land and sea (1st scenario workshop)

Posted on: 04/12/2024

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Last Edited: 7 days ago

Futures of using nature: land and sea (1st scenario workshop)

We focus on alternative futures of Europe, on regimes of stewardship of land and sea and address the role of ownership, access and use rights in rural areas (cities excluded), multiple uses of spaces (both land and sea), biodiversity, food (both aquaculture, fisheries and agriculture), energy (use of renewables), raw materials (mining etc.), carbon removal and storage, adaptation to climate change. While the challenges are global, they are addressed especially from the European research and innovation policy perspective.

Posted on: 04/12/2024

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Last Edited: 7 days ago

Posted on: 03/12/2024