Context of the study
The European Framework Programme (FP) for Research and Innovation is pivotal in addressing the goals of the European Union, by providing essential funding to drive forward the EU’s research and innovation agenda, aligning with the broader policy objectives of sustainability and climate neutrality. The discussion concerning the development of FP10 revolve around the need to either incrementally refine its existing structure, or to fundamentally transform the framework programme structure in order to make a more impactful FP. Advocates for a major overhaul argue for comprehensive changes to address new global challenges, a declining competitiveness, and the need to align with Europe's strategic goals. On the other hand, proponents of gradual improvement suggest building upon the current system, emphasising continuity and simplification to enhance effectiveness without causing significant disruption. The goal of this study is to develop and assess high-level designs for the EU’s next FP (Hypothetical Programme Structures, HPS), considering the identified geo-political, societal, and economic challenges as well as expected impacts of major technological developments.

Study approach
The study undertakes a forward-looking analysis, based on alternative scenarios for Europe and its R&I landscape and exploring the structural adaptations that may be required to ensure the programme remains responsive, effective, and aligned with the EU’s strategic priorities. The figure below provides an overview of the key components of the foresight process.

A key component of the methodology is the series of three foresight workshops with more than 35 stakeholders representing EU R&I stakeholders (university networks, RTOs, private sector companies, NCPs, policymakers, civil society representatives etc.). During the workshops, the participants discussed the main challenges of the FP and identified solutions. Moreover, they made use of the future scenarios developed by the study team, to reflect upon potential implications societal, economic, and environmental trends these scenarios might have on the focus and structure of FP10. Based on this input and an analysis of relevant reports (e.g. FP evaluations and studies, high level reports from Draghi, Letta, Heitor and Niinistö, stakeholder position papers, case studies on selected national R&I programmes) pros and cons of both the evolutionary and disruptive approaches in selected scenarios and their impact on the EU’s R&I landscape and FP structure were formulated.
The study presents a set of hypothetical programme structures (HPS) that meet the different scenario settings. Each HPS “tells a different story” about the objectives and means of intervening in the EU R&I landscape. In the context of this study, we understand the HPS as a narrative description as comprising two main elements: 

• The overarching objectives of the programme – defining its fundamental purpose and strategic intent.
• The main components of the programme – outlining the broad pillars or themes that guide research investments.

Based on the workshop discussions, available policy reports and examples of different programme structures at national level, a range of policy options were developed. Policy options include suggestions spanning from the management of the FP to prioritisation and thematical focus, instrument design, improved coordination within the FP, or governance mechanisms to ensure that the FP remains effective under different conditions.

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH is a leading service provider for issues related to innovation and technology. We support and advise during the analysis of complex projects or market situations, during the promotion of research programmes from the German federal government, the German state governments and the EU and organise branch offices or contact offices for research and business. As the project sponsor, we offer the suitable solution for every step of the innovation process.

We work both domestically and abroad for our customers from politics, research, industry and finance. 1,000 employees cooperate in multi-national and interdisciplinary teams. With a total of 10 divisions and nine cross-sectional divisions, we cover a broad-based content spectrum and have at our disposal highly-qualified experts from the natural sciences, engineering, social sciences and business management.

We are located in seven cities: Berlin, Munich, Dresden, Bonn, Hannover, Erfurt and Stuttgart. We are thus in close proximity to the customer.

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

Transportes, Inovação e Sistemas (TIS) is an independent Portuguese consultancy (SME) with over 30 years of experience in the market. With offices in Lisbon and Porto (Portugal) and Fortaleza and São Paulo (Brazil), TIS provides expertise and decision-making support on policies, planning, economic evaluations, and operations across all transport sectors. This includes transport infrastructure, policies, economics, modeling, and market studies.

TIS has extensive experience working with the European Commission, the European Parliament, EU agencies (e.g., EMSA and EUSPA), and multilateral organisations such as the EIB, UNDP, UNECE, and the World Bank, both as a sole contractor and as the leader of large consortia. Additionally, TIS has in-depth knowledge of TEN-T policy and has coordinated the TEN-T Atlantic corridor since 2014, actively contributing to transport infrastructure and mobility planning at the European level.

The company has significant expertise in conducting fact-finding studies, fitness checks, evaluations and impact assessments for various EC Directorates-General, incorporating foresight methodologies to ensure that EU legislative work remains future-proof. This forward-looking approach to policy objectives and regulatory developments is also applied in research and innovation projects.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

Foresight and societal resilience are intimately linked. Foresight processes generate insights and relationships that help communities in dealing with uncertainty. Through Foresight – so scholars argue – communities gain a richer understanding of the potential of the present and strengthen the social fabric in its ability to act upon these insights, from coping and adaptation to transformation.
So far goes the theory …
The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out on a jour ney exploring foresight’s contribution to societal resilience in practice.
Ten “FUTURESILIENCE Labs ” located in ten different regions across Europe have embarked on a scenario process to strengthen resilience in the face of very different challenges. In the meantime, the ten Labs are in the middle of their journey - here is a sneak preview into two of the Labs:
The IMMER Lab aims at strengthening the local resilience of mobility and energy-related activities in the cross-border Strasbourg-Kehl region. To this end, the Lab is using a science fiction-based Futures Café approach where actors from municipalities co-develop and discuss a range of science-fiction based crisis scenarios such as e.g. a Tsunami in the Rhine River Valley. In its recent Futures Café workshop , after exploring a range of different scenarios, the group discovered seven actions that were useful across scenarios and therefore highly likely to underpin crisis resilience.
The COSIGHT Lab is located in the German city of Hamburg. It aims to mitigate societal polarization and enhance societal resilience by increasing conflict resolution and problem-solving skills. This involves developing resilience-promoting citizen processes. To this end it is complementing an existing participatory process, the “CoSaturday”, with the FUTURESILIENCE scenario approach. The first COSIGHT workshop focused on the integration of migrant populations – a much-contested issue in Hamburg. The first workshop gathered more than 35 integration stakeholders from a wide range of backgrounds. Participants identified key influencing factors of integration, barriers for successful integration and tools to address these barriers. COSIGHT is now looking to transfer these findings to local policy makers.
Experience from these Labs seems to confirm the theoretical argument. A particular strength lies in the rich diversity of approaches. Even though the FUTURESILIENCE project provided an overarching guideline for a scenario process, each Lab interpreted this process according to the local specific requirements and capacities as IMMER and COSIGHT illustrate. As FUTURESILIENCE evolves, we will highlight further glimpses into the manifold discoveries made during the Labs’ foresight journey.

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications.

Alongside digitalisation and automation trends, the shift towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in EU labour markets. Grounded in long-term transformative trends spanning several decades, the green transitions are picking up speed. The resulting changes in skill needs will have impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. An important challenge for the coming years is accelerating up- and reskilling so that people have the green skills to thrive in greener jobs.

In this workshop, we seek to develop scenarios for the future of green skills and jobs. The series is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project. It supports the work of the Horizon Europe Foresight Network and provides intelligence and supports the development of a European R&I foresight community.

We organise a series of three workshops: the first two are devoted to devise scenarios, while the third one will derive policy implications.

Alongside digitalisation and automation trends, the shift towards greener and more sustainable economies is a game changer in EU labour markets. Grounded in long-term transformative trends spanning several decades, the green transitions are picking up speed. The resulting changes in skill1 needs will have impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. An important challenge for the coming years is accelerating up- and reskilling so that people have the green skills to thrive in greener jobs.
In this workshop, we seek to develop scenarios for the future of green skills and jobs. The series is part of the "European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe" project. It supports the work of the Horizon Europe Foresight Network and provides intelligence and supports the development of a European R&I foresight community.

The evolving complexity of global challenges is increasingly affecting the steering of European Research and Innovation which aims at addressing important present and future societal concerns. The idea of ‘watching futures’ to anticipate future possibilities and analyse the consequences of current choices to inform and shape a forward-looking EU R&I policy is continuously gaining ground. 

In this light, as part of the ‘European R&I foresight and public engagement for Horizon Europe’ study launched by the European Commission in connection to the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a second series of online workshops will take place during October – November 2023.

The workshops, which will run for two hours each, will discuss insights stemming from thematic policy briefs compiled by expert panels, addressing possible future scenarios for critical issues (i.e., Interpretation of Criminal and Lawful Activities, Green Skills and Jobs, Big Tech, etc.). Following the presentation of each policy brief, each workshop will feature two focus groups: one involving the group of experts from the panel who developed the policy brief and one including representatives from topic-relevant EU-funded R&I projects. All events will foster extensive engagement with participants, including policymakers.

Wondering about the European Union's future role on the world stage? 🇪🇺 On behalf of the Federal Foreign Service of Germany, the DLR-PT conducted a Strategic Foresight Workshop including a Futures Literacy Lab on the topic 'The European Union as a global actor in 2040?'! Together with experts and Federal Foreign Office staff, the DLR-PT explored innovative ways of thinking about the futures. 

Booklet on the Strategic Foresight Workshop

As a result of the recent pandemic, global value chains have completely transformed. This has raised concerns over the ensuing social, economic and environmental trends and related impact on the way supply chains are organised. In this context, the EU-funded ReSChape project will analyse social, economic and environmental changes and disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and evaluate their impact on supply chains. New supply chain models will be proposed, aiming towards a more streamlined supply chain process to assure humans (workers, consumers and in general citizens) to be at the center of the business also thanks to new digital technologies. It will be studied how to assure a positive social impact and innovative policy scenarios will be developed with recommendations to support the future supply chains.

The aims of this proposal are:
• To analyse social, economic and environmental changes and disruptions (including covid) and evaluate their impact on SCs, identifying related challenges in terms of relationship between countries, configuration of the network, impact on employment.

• To study and propose a set of SC models for the evolution of global SC integrating strategies like resource efficient, closed-loop and humanitarian as a way to increase EU resilience and sustainability. Particular attention will be given to the role of digitalization as a way to establish new paths for social inclusion taking into consideration the needs of urban and rural areas. Some important European sectors like fashion, automotive, medical and machine tools will be analysed with case studies and survey.

• To develop Innovative tools for monitoring and assessing sectoral trade patterns and defining mechanisms to evaluate relationship of disruptions like pandemic and global value chains taking into consideration impact on employment, economic growth, incomes etc also in the long term. Moreover, it will be analysed the impact of different trade patterns, on the EU value added of sectoral and countries with a specific focus on analyzing income inequalities and proposition of decent work and social cohesion. Particular attention will be gives to gender issues and social disparities.

• To develop innovative policy scenarios with recommendations for future global value chains: policy scenarios will be based on Key horizontal issues impacting on several sectors and will provide recommendations for EU, national and sectoral strategies, policy measures and targeted actions aimed at shaping fair, inclusive and sustainable trade patterns, value and supply chains as well as production networks.