Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.

With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.

GIZ’ foresight report 2024

Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.

In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.

The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.

Join industry leaders, sustainability experts, and educational innovators in a dynamic online conference organized by the EU Project SF4S to address the critical skills and capabilities needed to drive Europe’s green growth agenda. Gain actionable insights on overcoming sustainability challenges and explore cutting-edge training modules designed for a green growth future.

AGENDA (CET)

12:00-12:05 Welcome & Overview of SF4S project
Moderator: Amos Taylor

12:05-12:20 Challenges: What do industries need to lead green growth?
Speakers: Toni Ahlqvist (U of Turku) & Johanna Vallistu (Taltech )

12:20-12:45 Practices & Methods: What are the lessons learned from industry foresight projects?
Speakers: Henning Breuer (Media University Berlin) & Pierre Plouzennec (Michelin)

12:45-13:10 Training for the Future: How can curricula be adapted for vocational and higher education?
Speakers: Rene Rohrbeck (EDHEC) & Theresa Hanning (author of Pantopia and socially critical science fiction)

13:10-13:15 Closing

As a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, Helenos will implement its second pilot on Fashion Futuring, investigating potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion.

Date: 14/04/2025
Time: TBA
Location: MOMus- Museum of Modern Art, Thessaloniki, Greece
Format: In-person
Audience: Domain Experts


Context
Have you ever wondered why people in Ancient Egypt (3100-30 BCE) wore hair wigs? Or why samurai have been associated with kimonos, while feminine full skirts are linked with the post-war America of the ‘50s? There are numerous examples of fashion items that represent specific periods and places. But what does that signify? In ancient Egypt, men wearing hair wigs was considered an honor and a symbol of equalization to women, as women were regarded as wise and sacred.

Similarly, in Tokugawa Japan (1603 – 1868), when samurai lived, clothing indicated one’s rank and role within the highly structured feudal society, while in post-war America, fashion was influenced by the idealized image of the suburban family, emphasizing domesticity and traditional gender roles. The common space of all three examples is that - throughout the centuries - fashion has served people and societies as a way of self-expression, a sign of social status, also revealing the prevailing social norms and beliefs.

Today, our highly complex and uncertain world requires strategic tools that will help us create new sustainable development trajectories. Fashion not only reveals unique and collective identities, norms, and ethics but is also associated with environmental issues. It is one of the largest pollutant industries, prompting a shift in the way we produce and consume fashion items. How might the climate crisis change our attitudes, and how does this impact the fashion industry?


What is Fashion Futuring?
Fashion Futuring is an innovative approach that investigates potential links among objects, fiction, culture, and systems to understand how the values of the systems/societies can shape the future of fashion. It suggests a significant shift in the future of fashion approach, moving away from short-term trends and financial forecasting as primary factors for fashion production, towards sustainable, more humane means of fashion producing and consuming.


The pilot
The upcoming pilot in April is targeted towards domain experts in fashion & foresight. The workshop consists of a 7-stage methodology based on Garcia (2023), where participants will be encouraged to share their personal experiences and values, co-create a fictional future, and work together to design a fictional fashion item based on this future. The workshop will utilize various foresight methods, primarily core design, what-if scenario development, and strategic thinking.

That will be the second pilot in Fashion Futuring implemented by Helenos. The first pilot was held in January 2025 in Thessaloniki, involving local citizens. This upcoming workshop aims to contribute to a collective knowledge pool, helping to create a comprehensive understanding of the future of fashion and sustainability.

This workshop will be implemented in English.

For more information, please contact the following emails: 

stavros.mantzanakis@helenosconsulting.eu (Stavros Mantzanakis)

eliza.savvopoulou@helenosconsulting.eu (Eliza Savvopoulou)

GIZ Profile: sustainable development for a liveable future

As a service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work, we are dedicated to shaping a future worth living around the world. We have over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas, including economic development and employment promotion, energy and the environment, and peace and security. The diverse expertise of our federal enterprise is in demand around the globe – from the German Government, European Union institutions, the United Nations, the private sector, and governments of other countries. We work with businesses, civil society actors and research institutions, fostering successful interaction between development policy and other policy fields and areas of activity. Our main commissioning party is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

How GIZ uses Foresight Methods: As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is greatly affected by the business environment in which it operates and by trends in Germany, Europe and the world. Dealing with the resulting uncertainty, complexity and fast-paced change is often very challenging. This makes it important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and for the crises it will have to address, ultimately making the company and its staff more resilient.  

The aim of the contract was to produce guidance on how to plan, run, analyse and communicate the results of a systematic horizon scan on emerging issues with relevance to the environment with limited resources. The process was intended to be feasible for a small group of horizon scanners with different backgrounds and levels of experience in horizon scanning processes.

This project aimed at exploring non-conventional, if not radical, but nevertheless credible futures at a time horizon 2050. This was achieved by a combination of desk research of scientific and grey literature as well as social media scanning, including more unique information resources such as reaching out to activist communities, popular journals and other materials outside the conventional radar on topics relating toward the Green Deal and how to establish a sustainable future. Further, the service developed challenging, emotional and provoking scenarios in the form of stories that contain a “what-if” point of view. Therefore, the narratives include drivers of change, future challenges, possible tensions, consequences of failure and unlikely high-impact "wild card" events.

The project website can be accessed here 

The foresight project “Adaptation to Climate Change including Societal Transformation” (Framework Contract 2018/RTD/A2/OP/PP-07001-2018-LOT1) was meant to complement the Mission Boards’ deep and wide-ranging expertise by exploring longer-term time horizons, up to and beyond the year 2050. Building on existing future-oriented work, the project employed dedicated foresight methods, in particular workshops and a Delphi survey, to explore this time horizon in a systematic manner, and involving experts and stakeholders as appropriate.

Climate Adaptation refers to anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well-planned, early adaptation action later saves money, lives, livelihoods, and biodiversity.

The foresight was based on the European Commission (EC) White Paper “Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action” of 2009, and on the EU climate adaptation strategy adopted in 2013. At the time of the formulation of this strategy, the economic, environmental, and social costs of not adapting to climate change were estimated to range from 100 billion € a year in 2020 to 250 billion € a year in 2050, for the EU as a whole. Meanwhile, the EC in February 2021 elaborated and adopted a new climate adaptation strategy, which focuses on developing solutions and implementation of adaptation measures.

Research directions: Climate change adaptation (CCA) including societal transformation covers a broad range of areas, such as agriculture, dealing with water resources, disaster prevention, migration flows, security issues, behaviour changes, urban areas, industry and trade relations, transforming the energy system and transportation. The thematic scope of the foresight exercise was defined in close collaboration with the Mission Board (MB) through the Mission Board Secretariat. Consequently, the Delphi survey implemented in summer 2020 was used to assess elements of the interim MB report, in particular items around risk management, financial risk protection, social infrastructure, health, water, food/agriculture, and ecosystems. All the work fed into the final report of the Mission Board “A Climate Resilient Europe - Prepare Europe for climate disruptions and accelerate the transformation to a climate resilient and just Europe by 2030” (2020).

This is a synthesis report based on 130+ interviews conducted as part of the Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S). The synthesis report concludes the project’s Work Package 2, led by Finland Futures Research Centre, which had as a central objective to identify “key skills and good practices on the basis of interviews with the key community actors”.

Nine SF4S consortium partners – DKSD, EDC, EDHEC, FFRC, GEA, HMKW, ISPIM, IZT, and TalTech - carr ied out 91 interviews in situ or via digital communication channels from September 2022 to March 2023. In addition, 47 interviewees or discussants participated via focus group discussions (November 2022) and a public webinar (January 2023). 

The interviews map out sustainability, digitalisation, and foresight skills and practices in organisations around Europe with an emphasis on the project’s three target clusters: Agri-food, Health, and Mobility. In addition to industry representatives, experts in foresight, policy, consulting, and education have contributed their views to the project. 

For more information on the report, see the project website.   

In the fast-evolving landscape of Manufacturing-as-a-Service (MaaS), the EU faces the crucial challenge of navigating the uncertainties of emerging changes, disruptions, and opportunities in the sector. This uncertainty demands a strategic approach to guide decision-making in the European manufacturing industry up to 2040. In this context, the MASTT2040 project uses inclusive foresight methods to build a shared understanding, engage key stakeholders, and craft a strategic roadmap, addressing short, medium, and long-term goals. The project’s overall goal is to make MaaS a catalyst for circularity, embed sustainability in industrial approaches, enhance supply resilience, and propel Europe to the forefront of MaaS expertise.

Find more information here.
 

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

Arctik is a Brussels-based communications agency recognised for its strategic and creative communication capacity in the field of sustainability. Arctik develops tailored public relations and communication strategies that take both objectives and resulting impact into account. We facilitate the creation of communities and networks that contribute towards circulating content, whilst cultivating meaningful dialogues and synergies between influencers and decision-makers.

Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence.
Our team has a strong commitment to sustainability. We incorporate sustainable values into operations Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence. and consider environmental and social factors in every business decision, while encouraging our partners and clients to think circular! Arctik is also registered to obtain the Brussels ‘Enterprise ecodynamique’ label. 

Arctik, as part of Technopolis Group is present in more than 10 countries with 300 consultants originating from +45 countries and speaking +30 languages. This diversity offers a unique perspective on what local-level stakeholders are receptive to. 

Our offices are located in : • Austria • Belgium • Colombia • France • Germany • Ivory Coast • Netherlands • Greece • Portugal • Sweden • Ivory Cost • Colombia • United Kingdom.

Our solutions: Strategy • Messaging and copywriting • Online and offline engagement • Thought-provoking design • Web services • Project Management • Video and animation • Data-driven communication • Events • Social media campaigns & monitoring • Knowledge management and Capitalisation • Media and visibility.

Our expertise: Regional Policy, Circular Economy, Climate Services, Education, Entrepreneurship, Science & Innovation.

Arctik is part of Technopolis |group|
Website www.arctik.eu
LinkedIn linkedin.com/company/arctik/
Bluesky bsky.app/profile/arctik.eu 

Making use of the four “Imaginaries for a Sustainable Europe* in 2050” presented by the European Environment Agency and the Eionet**

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'coalition of sustainable communities' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

Travelling into the [future] (spanish: Viajando al [futuro]) is a long-term project aimed at developing desirable future scenarios for sustainable tourism in Spain together with local stakeholders and experts in the field. The project is funded by the European Climate Foundation and implemented in a collaboration between Futures Probes and Tipi. 

Process & Methodology

The project was structured into three main phases: Research, Crowdsourcing, Storytelling.

• In the research phase, a PESTLE analysis and the elaboration of local stakeholder maps identified environmental key factors and networks.
• In the crowdsourcing phase, participatory workshops with local stakeholders and a Delphi survey with tourism experts were run in parallel, built upon and at the same time challenging the knowledge gathered in the previous phase. 
• In the Storytelling phase, the results were used as the fundament for building six future scenarios, visualised as a written narrative accompanied by an illustration. 

Outcome

• Building up and strengthening local stakeholder networks and generating ideas for future sustainable tourism(s). Gathering of key insights on desirable, possible and likely future developments of tourism in Spain. 
• Identification and discussion of needs, desires, worries and attitudes of tourism stakeholders – in its complexity and diversity. 
• Six future scenarios to inspire can activate communities, organisations and citizens to define measures that accelerate the transformation towards a better, more sustainable tourism.
  

Next steps

• Developing indicators to measure the performance of (future) touristic activities in terms of their sustainability.
  
• Creating a network of change agents within the tourism sector to exchange experiences, needs, knowledge and to collectively identify possible synergies and action steps to be taken.
  
• Designing experimental pilot projects focusing on solving some of the concrete challenges identified as common to one or all of the regions observed.

SF4S is a collaborative action with partners from Higher Education institutions (HEIs), Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, innovation networks and business entities from the Agri-food, Health and the Mobility sectors.

Carried out between July 2022 - June 2025, SF4S supports our transition to a more sustainable European economy by helping to address the lack of green, digital and future (i.e. sustainability foresight) skills among students and professionals and by connecting knowledge flows between HEI, VET and industry actors that are necessary for Europe to develop cooperative solutions on a large-scale and support the recommendations for action in the major reports and initiatives: Green Deal, NextGenerationEU, European Skills Agenda and OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030.

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction.

The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.
Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives.

The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC.

Smart Futures Tunisia aims to explore what Tunisia and its digital economy could and should look like in 2035. For this purpose, normative future scenarios were created from which inspiring future job profiles could be derived. In a final step, recommendations identify options for action through which the envisioned future can be approximated.

The results are based on a three-stage methodology approach:

• First, key thematic areas were outlined through baseline research and expert interviews.
• Second, a foresight workshop was conducted to create a room to elaborate on different future scenarios and job profiles while also developing a digital skills map and initially discuss recommendations. 
• Third, the results were refined through expert validation loops and expert interviews.

The future scenarios were created to explore what urban areas, smaller cities and rural areas might look like in 2035. A future is drawn in which Tunisia is characterized by smart and self-powered buildings, increasing e-mobility, and public services delivered digitally. Apart from that, digital progress offers the opportunity to provide more equitable education, to conduct various types of commercial activities via e-commerce, and to improve access to health. Such a future in its variety of facets has been visually depicted in the graphic above.

Furthermore, future job profiles are derived on this basis. In a desirable Tunisian development, these will be found primarily in the areas of food production, fintech, e-commerce, health tech, mobility, ed-, gov-, and green tech. Specific job profiles range from farm drone operators, who operate and maintain drones that monitor, measure and analyze crop growth and health, to cybersecurity experts, who protect government data from digital attacks. To be prepared for the changing profiles, digital competencies need to be developed, which can be categorized into the following four pillars: digital literacy and data literacy, technology-specific skills, digital product literacy, and digital transformation literacy.

After developing future scenarios and outlining future job profiles, recommendations were finally drawn up that will enable Tunisia to proactively strive for the future outlined. General recommendations manifest themselves, for example, in the promotion of a "digital culture" that includes all strata of the population in order to make appropriate use of the potential of digitization. A specific example of a topic area recommendation is to strive for leadership in green tech solutions. Here, it is recommended to promote green tech culture, for example by including environmental sustainability and green tech solutions in education and public campaigns. In addition to content recommendations, Foresight Journey recommendations aim to improve and deepen the methodological applications of foresight for potential future ventures in this thematic field.

Smart Futures Tunisia is part of the Special Initiative “Decent Work for a Just Transition” Invest for Jobs of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and implemented by the Digital Transformation Programme Tunisia of the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. Invest for Jobs aims to team up with companies to create good jobs in eight African partner countries and to improve local working conditions.

Anticipatin and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. 

Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post :Everybody is looking into the future: a technology foresight perspective 

Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post: Technology foresight: anticipating the innovations of tomorrow 

Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

 In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning. Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.