To discern the trends that will influence space exploration in the long term, the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) and the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (CIFS) collaboratively conducted a foresight analysis on the Future of Space Exploration in Europe between 2040-2060.

The study delineates four scenarios for the long-term future of space exploration, emphasizing the critical uncertainties and forces that will shape its trajectory and underscore its significance. As the future of European space exploration is anticipated to incorporate elements from each of these scenarios, strategic foresight is essential for current decision-making that aspires to be alert, enduring and forward-thinking.

Source: ESPI - Home- Reports

This is the fourth ESPAS (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) global trends report since the establishment of this inter-institutional EU foresight process in the early 2010s. As on previous occasions, it is being published in a year when the European Union embarks on a new five-year institutional cycle. The report analyses the key global trends towards the year 2040 and their possible impact on the Union, and sets out some strategic choices and questions that Europe's leaders may need to address in the coming five years and beyond. The report is the product of a unique collaborative process over the past year involving officials from across the nine ESPAS institutions and bodies.

The report sets the centrality of geopolitics as a transversal trend, given the on-going shift from an era of cooperation to an era of competition as well as the deepening fragmentation of the international system and the acceleration of major global transitions. The Report highlights how the borders between EU internal policy and external policy are blurring nowadays and will probably blur even more in the future. The primacy of geopolitics is outlined across the various trends identified in the report: from the economic challenges to demography, from the environmental and climate crisis to the energy transition, from the quest for equality to the technological acceleration, and including health, democracy and the broader changes on how we live.

The publication concludes by outlining the strategic imperatives for the incoming EU leadership. It calls for a multifaceted approach to establish the EU as a smart global power, ensure a socially equitable green transition, navigate economic risks, update the economic model, innovate within a balanced regulatory framework, and strengthen social cohesion.

Between now and 2040, Europe and the world will undergo profound geopolitical, economic, technological and social change. The generation now growing up will live in a world that we can only imagine. However, integrating long-term goals into short to medium-term decision-making can boost our chances of leaving a world that is in better shape to the next generation. The more we understand the challenges ahead, the better we can anticipate and prepare for the changes to come. There are grounds for optimism. The EU has arguably been able to make progress in the past precisely when the challenges seemed overwhelming. When pressed, it can marshal reserves of determination and ingenuity. The next EU leadership will need to draw deeply on these reserves in the years ahead.

Source: EEAS Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future

The latest report of the ESPAS network, Choosing Europe’s Future, analyses global trends in order to identify key strategic challenges for the EU as the next legislative cycle begins. It is the fruit of collaboration between nine EU institutions and bodies. Key takeaways include the importance of being able to act quickly, given that game-changing developments can happen suddenly. It notes the risk of false economies; in areas such as defence and security, for example, efforts to avoid costs now can mean far greater costs in the future. The report points to the importance of threat multipliers and gain multipliers. Action to mitigate social fragmentation can prevent knock-on effects in other domains; the development of effective clean technologies can bring dividends across the board.

Think Tank European Parliament - Research - Advanced search - Choosing Europe's future: The 2024 ESPAS report

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

The study concerns the development of 4 Scenarios for 2040, for 5 Balkan cities: Thessaloniki, Nicosia, Skopje, Sofia, Tirana.

The research team identifies the factors that influence the development of these cities and highlights those that shape the urban future, identifying both the key challenges that cities will have to face and the forces they can proactively harness and build their desired future.

All scenarios present plausible future images of the above cities including references to their environmental status for 2040, as well as information on the specific air quality challenges.

The development of the scenarios took place in the framework of the European project AIRTHINGS (funded by the Interreg programme). It was implemented by a project team involving Helenos Consulting and the UNESCO Chair on Futures Research (ITE/PRAXI).

This document provides guidance on how to conduct a structured horizon scanning process to identify emerging developments that could have potential impact in the future, and in particular on the environment. It starts with an overview of the guide (Chapter 1) and an introduction to horizon scanning (Chapter 2) in connection with the concept of futures literacy. It then provides a step-by-step approach for conducting a structured horizon scanning process (Chapter 3), including a variety
of diverse sources for spotting signals, different frameworks for signal scanning and several options to unpack and analyse the collected signals and patterns of change through creative methods and exercises. It also proposes a few different and complementary ways of communicating the findings to relevant stakeholders, networks and communities. Lastly, it suggests some tools (Chapter 4) that can be used to strengthen the scanning process. The annexes offer a detailed comparison of such tools and a glossary of terms related to futures literacy.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology.

This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

OECD has released the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, designed to help policymakers anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.

By exploring 25 potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Toolkit equips governments with a practical, five-step foresight methodology to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop future-ready policies. It includes facilitation guides, case studies, and actionable insights to support resilience in an uncertain world.