Summary

Core Themes
The book reimagines humanity’s future through planetary foresight, blending historical wisdom with planetary stewardship. It critiques linear Western progress narratives and advocates for a hybrid, cyclical vision of history, emphasizing pluralistic identities and reverence for life.

Structural Framework
Organized into thematic sections, the work begins with “The Mysterious Lord of Time,” challenging linear temporality and introducing non-linear, culturally diverse historical perspectives. “Evolving Belief Systems” contrasts Indo-Iranic, Mesopotamian, and Hellenic thought with Abrahamic traditions, highlighting ancient influences on modern pluralism.

Imagination and Futures
The “Histories of Imagination” section explores myth and storytelling as drivers of civilization, while “Scenarios of Future Worlds” applies foresight methodologies to geopolitical and technological evolution, emphasizing ecological consciousness. The final chapters expand to cosmic intelligence and ethics, framing humanity’s role within universal interconnectedness.

Ethical Vision
Central to the thesis is a call for planetary identity and stewardship, merging forgotten wisdom traditions with modern foresight to navigate ecological and technological uncertainties. The book positions itself as both a philosophical guide and practical framework for ethical transformation in an era of global crises.

Key Argument
Motti asserts that humanity is transitioning from a “Second Nomad Age” (characterized by fragmentation) toward a “Second Settlement Age” marked by planetary consciousness, requiring creative complexity and ethical vigilance.

📣 YouthDecide 2040 is looking for participants to join our regional workshops and co-create the future of European democracy!

Be part of a one-and-a-half-day immersive workshop where diverse voices come together to imagine and shape resilient, thriving European democracies.

🗣️💬 Through creative, participatory foresight activities, we will explore different visions of democracy in 2040—your perspective matters!

🧭 The wider, the better
Are you a European resident over 18? This call is for you!
We're fostering intergenerational discussions on the future of European democracy, centring youth voices (18-34).

🔓 The call for applications will remain open through May 2025. 

The consortium of LifeFactFuture (LFF) gathered for a successful event on 12 March 2025 at Nokia in Espoo. Nokia provided an exceptional venue for the event, showcasing their advanced facilities and ongoing development efforts.

Our host, Veli-Pekka Luoma, who opened the event, introduced the magnificent facilities of the Executive Experience Center in Espoo.

Nokia shared valuable insights into their LifeFactFuture activities. Tomi Lahti presented the new Nokia factory campus in Oulu and discussed Nokia’s initiatives in MTP and Modular Automation within the Biopharmaceutical Industry. His presentation emphasised Nokia’s cutting-edge capabilities, the significance of data architecture and common reference models (OPC UA), and the benefits of Edge computing over Cloud solutions for latency-critical operations, especially in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

Perry Suojoki supplemented the discussion with a fascinating view on how RXRM (Real-time eXtended Reality Multimedia) can enhance industrial productivity, particularly in the life science sector.

See the presentations from Nokia:

Veli-Pekka Luoma: LifeFactFuture at Nokia Espoo Campus
Nokia Oulu New Campus
Tomi Lahti: MTP and Modular Automation in the Biopharmaceutical Industry
Perry Suojoki: Nokia RXRM for Pharmaceutical Industry
After the introduction to Nokia and their ongoing projects, each university-based Work Package presented the state of their research. Finally, each company partner briefly introduced where they are with their internal projects. All consortium partners demonstrated progress in their projects and showed strong commitment to the LifeFactFuture initiative. Several companies already reported demonstrable results, for example a solution that after successful deployment in Finland is now already being rolled out to company locations elsewhere.

Key Takeaways:

Excellent facilities and development work at Nokia
Insights into Nokia’s LifeFactFuture activities, including MTP and Modular Automation
The importance of data architecture, common reference models, and Edge computing
The potential of RXRM to boost industrial productivity
The importance of joint ecosystem cooperation
Strong progress and commitment from all partners
Veli-Pekka Luoma has also already summed up in LinkedIn the event with additional photos from the day.

As he writes beautifully in the comments:

“We may see that ‘everything’ circulates around the Data, and AI as a toolkit consuming, processing, assessing, operationalising it. Data is the new Soil.”  

With a fresh look and enhanced features, the newly upgraded Futures4Europe is stepping into spring—and inviting you along. Enjoy a sleek interface, a smoother user experience, and an intuitive search powered by a rich set of tags for effortless navigation.

As a user-generated content platform, it thrives on the input of its contributors: We're excited that over 250 registered members have already generated over 370 content pages featuring insightful foresight projects, in-depth studies and results, futures-related events, and thought-provoking posts.

Let me ask you: Is your foresight work showing up when users search for your domain of expertise (e.g. energy, mobility, agriculture) or the foresight methods you've applied and have hands-on experience with (e.g. scenarios, visioning, roadmapping)? Futures4Europe is now ready to amplify your impact within the foresight community.

Why promote your work here—on “yet another” platform?

You're probably already active on LinkedIn and maintain your own—or your organization’s—website. You likely follow other foresight professionals and futures practitioners, and perhaps you’re subscribed to a few future-focused newsletters.
But wouldn’t it be great to have one dedicated space that brings all-things-futures together in one place?
Supported by the European Commission through the Coordination and Support Action “Eye of Europe,” Futures4Europe.eu is the portal for foresight activities in Europe and beyond:

• It's tailored to foresight and futures-oriented work
• You only share what’s relevant to foresight—no need to upload your full CV
• (Some of) your work might already be showcased on the platform! Projects and results added by colleagues and tagged with your name will automatically appear in your profile
• Each time you contribute—or are acknowledged by others, you gain recognition. Watch your name tag reflect your growing presence through the mention count in the top corner
• It makes it easy for you to tap into the forward-looking collective intelligence - ongoing and recent foresight projects, a wealth of studies and detailed project results, events all over Europe, opinion-pieces and interviews.
  

Spring into action—join Futures4Europe now!
Whether you step in softly or leap in boldly, you’re welcome on the platform:

1. Register
It takes under a minute to join.

2. Create a personal page with basic details like your name, affiliation, and relevant tags covering domains and foresight methods. You can customize your profile by adding a picture, a short bio, and the names of your projects. You might even find that others have already tagged you in various projects, results, or events—this content will automatically appear on your profile.

3. Promote your organization
Create a public organization page, easy steps: add name, logo, website link, and relevant tags. There’s no need to go into too much detail, as info from projects, results and event pages tagging your organization will become automatically visible here also.

4. Add projects or results
This is where you’ll gain the most visibility. Creating a project or result page is simple, and when you tag your team and consortium partners, you help increase the visibility for all people involved.  

5. Promote your upcoming event(s)
Easily share events by adding the event name, date, location, a short description, and a registration link. Most events are also promoted on our Futures4Europe LinkedIn page for extra visibility. After the event has taken place, you can re-edit the event page in order to promote its key outcomes.

6. Write a post
You can share about bespoke foresight methods, lessons learned from a specific project, its policy impacts, your reflections on foresight practices - do your thing.

Whether you're a seasoned foresight expert or just getting started, Futures4Europe is your space to connect, collaborate, and showcase your work to a growing community shaping the future.

In the small seaside township of Diano Marina, Liguria Region, Italy, the local community has been organising frequent meetings to help people overcome growing fears of an increasingly uncertain future. This initiative, called ‘Fridays of Knowledge’, aims to equip the local community with scientific tools and knowledge to understand the risks and implications of new technologies in a dialogue together with students, academics, and journalists. Communication Manager for Fridays of Knowledge, Damiana Biga, tells Futures4Europe how this initiative sparks debates across different generations and backgrounds, fostering a sense of shared responsibility and curiosity.

At Futures4Europe, we had the pleasure of chatting with Petranka Malcheva, Policy Lead for Health, Long Term Thinking and Prevention at the Office of the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales. Her mission is to reduce health inequalities in Wales and to shift the focus from treatment to prevention guided by Wales’ pioneering Futures Generations Act. Petranka also leads the work on long-term thinking, supporting Wales’ public sector organisations to increase capabilities, skills and balancing short-term urgent issues without compromising the well-being of people living in the future.

Petranka will address the role of “Collective Intelligence” in Foresight for Research and Innovation Policy at the upcoming Futures4Europe Conference 2025, held in Vienna on the 15-16 May 2025.

Have you ever wondered how you will (still) be conducting research or teaching in 2050? 

The Foresight on Demand consortium (FOD2) invites you to participate in a survey in context to “Demographic change: implications and opportunities for Europe’s R&I system by 2050”.

Your input will help identify weak signals, early trends, and unexpected ideas that could shape research careers, higher education, and innovation systems in Europe by 2050.

Whether you are noticing shifts in work culture, research or teaching models, funding landscapes, please take 10-15 minutes and share your thoughts ! The survey is open until April 18.

For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.

With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.

GIZ’ foresight report 2024

Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.

In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.

The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.

Foresight, it seems to be on everyone’s lips these days. But what is it exactly? And more importantly, how can policymakers use it in their daily work? These are the kinds of questions we at the EU Policy Lab (a unit of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre) often receive from people who are interested in foresight but are not exactly sure what it is and what it can do for them. 

Where to start
To help them out, we have developed a ‘foresight menu’, for policymakers to understand and leverage foresight for more effective strategy building and decision-making. The menu describes various reasons why you would use foresight and guides the reader towards some of the tools/processes they can use. It will help policymakers clarify their starting point, their goals, and help them make the right choice about which foresight activities and processes are best suited to them.

How does it work?
Foresight - the discipline of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future in a participatory way – can provide insights for future-oriented decision-making in many different sectors and for many different actors, not only policymakers. It seeks to navigate uncertainty and explore possible and preferable futures, not with the purpose of predicting the future, but with the intent to generate a wide variety of views on the future and understand emerging change and future possibilities.

To help anyone starting off with foresight, we first outlined the types of goals for which foresight can be used along with their corresponding foresight tools. These goals range from mapping drivers of change, understanding possible developments and changes over time to creating and exploring alternative or preferred futures and developing actions to get closer to those futures. All these foresight 'pillars' represent different steps that can be individual activities or can be part of a comprehensive foresight process.  

Help shape Europe’s future! 🛡️ 

To build the smart policies of tomorrow, we are counting on your insights for the 2025 Strategic Foresight Report. Together we can build a strong and resilient Europe that is fit for future challenges.
This goes beyond security - it’s about democracy, well-being, the economy, climate, competitiveness, sustainability, fairness between generations, and more.
We need your expertise now! The call for evidence is open for feedback on the citizens engagement platform until March 19th. 

👉 2025 Strategic Foresight Report 

This report explores the transformative potential of Key Enabling Technologies in addressing
emerging security challenges within the European Union. By conducting foresight analysis, the report
evaluates technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced sensing, blockchain, and drones,
highlighting their ability to enhance law enforcement and critical infrastructure resilience, and fighting
crime and terrorism, while exposing vulnerabilities, such as misuse by criminal actors or regulatory
gaps.
The findings emphasise the need for proactive EU policies to both support technology transformation
and mitigate risks, including strategic investments in secure innovation, legal harmonisation, and
addressing societal resilience. This report aligns with the Commission’s 2024–2029 priorities,
supporting a prosperous, secure, and resilient Europe through actionable insights into emerging
security challenges. The recommendations aim to foster effective public-private collaborations,
ensure regulatory coherence across Member States, and promote technological solutions that balance
security needs with ethical and societal values, reinforcing the EU’s position as a leader in sustainable,
innovation-driven policy-making in internal security. 

💫 Got thoughts on Intergenerational Fairness? 💫

We’re in the process of shaping the EU Intergenerational Fairness Strategy, and we love YOUR input. Our Citizens' Engagement Platform is live and ready to hear from anyone who’s passionate about this critical issue.

Your voice matters—let’s make sure it’s heard! 💥
Join the conversation today: https://citizens.ec.europa.eu/intergenerational-fairness_en

Want to learn more about this project, the background and process, check out this blogpost  

The University of Turku opened the call for applications to the Pentti Malaska Futures Award on 27 January 2025. We are looking for bold, research-based, visionary, and boundary-crossing solutions supporting the building of a more sustainable global future.

What if education wasn’t controlled by institutions but shaped by learners, communities, and technology? Using backcasting, I explored a future where learning is decentralized, open, and driven by collaboration—and mapped the steps to get there.

This vision is inspired by discussions between Sara Skvirsky (IFTF Research Director) and Katherine Prince (VP of Foresight & Strategy, KnowledgeWorks), as well as the 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning - a report that, even today, feels like a glimpse into what’s coming.

🔹 How do we get there?

- From institutional control to collective intelligence
- From passive learning to a culture of creation
- From centralized credentials to peer-validated knowledge
- From rigid curriculums to dynamic, adaptive education

🎥 Watch the short film exploring this future!

This movie is a way of connecting three domains that bring me joy currently:
- Strategic Foresight
- Spirituality
- AI
One of the goals is to draw attention to Foresight as one of the Top 5 cutting-edge skills identified in the UN 2.0 agenda, a plan that helps organizations prepare for the future.

I adapted the Scenario Planning method to explore three possible futures and bring them to life through cinematic storytelling.
The film also introduces two trained characters, Lina and Arun, within each scenario, making the movie less formal and more engaging.

I also wanted to show how AI can:
- Serve as a bridge between ideas and skills from different fields.
- Help us discover new aspects of human potential.

This movie isn’t flawless or complete - I’m not a filmmaker, and that’s okay. Its beauty lies in its imperfection, reminding us that sometimes, taking the step to create is more important than getting it perfect. 

Later Edit: The film EXPLORING FUTURES: SCENARIO PLANNING IN COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS was included in the non-competition program of the International "Cartoons about the Future Festival," dedicated to films created with the help of AI. It was screened five times during the event, held on March 28-30, 2025, at the Atom Pavilion at VDNkH, Moscow. The festival, organized by the ATOM Foundation for the Promotion of Scientific, Educational, and Communication Initiatives in collaboration with the Big Cartoon Festival team, featured free screenings of short and full-length animated films over three days, offering audiences a diverse selection of forward-thinking works.

The present paper proposes a conceptual framework for elaborating and improving the application of foresight methods for policy making at multi-country level. Multi-country foresight (McF) shall be designed and used to analyse future-oriented common issues and goals, detect opportunities for cooperation and eventual conflicts of interest, identify complementary attributes, and promote supra-national or global facilities, infrastructures and services. Attention is given to participation mechanisms, allowing the implementation of common visions of the future by joining efforts, knowledge stocks, economic and political strengths, and improving international collaboration, strategic alliances and networking. The concept addresses two main development vectors: science, technology and innovation (STI) systems and productive chains. The core idea here is to use the foresight process as a tool for establishing multi-country STI policies and programs as well as policies and strategies for promoting global productive chains. The paper is particularly dedicated to developing countries and economies in transition.

OECD has released the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, designed to help policymakers anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.

By exploring 25 potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Toolkit equips governments with a practical, five-step foresight methodology to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop future-ready policies. It includes facilitation guides, case studies, and actionable insights to support resilience in an uncertain world.

I had the privilege to participate in a democracy conference and hackathon in Moldova in October, just days before the country’s pivotal EU referendum and presidential elections. Organized by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation in collaboration with local partner Yep Moldova and supported by USAID and the New Democracy Fund, the event was a hub of creativity, democratic innovation and a dose of foresight.

Foresight and societal resilience are intimately linked. Foresight processes generate insights and relationships that help communities in dealing with uncertainty. Through Foresight – so scholars argue – communities gain a richer understanding of the potential of the present and strengthen the social fabric in its ability to act upon these insights, from coping and adaptation to transformation.
So far goes the theory …
The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out on a jour ney exploring foresight’s contribution to societal resilience in practice.
Ten “FUTURESILIENCE Labs ” located in ten different regions across Europe have embarked on a scenario process to strengthen resilience in the face of very different challenges. In the meantime, the ten Labs are in the middle of their journey - here is a sneak preview into two of the Labs:
The IMMER Lab aims at strengthening the local resilience of mobility and energy-related activities in the cross-border Strasbourg-Kehl region. To this end, the Lab is using a science fiction-based Futures Café approach where actors from municipalities co-develop and discuss a range of science-fiction based crisis scenarios such as e.g. a Tsunami in the Rhine River Valley. In its recent Futures Café workshop , after exploring a range of different scenarios, the group discovered seven actions that were useful across scenarios and therefore highly likely to underpin crisis resilience.
The COSIGHT Lab is located in the German city of Hamburg. It aims to mitigate societal polarization and enhance societal resilience by increasing conflict resolution and problem-solving skills. This involves developing resilience-promoting citizen processes. To this end it is complementing an existing participatory process, the “CoSaturday”, with the FUTURESILIENCE scenario approach. The first COSIGHT workshop focused on the integration of migrant populations – a much-contested issue in Hamburg. The first workshop gathered more than 35 integration stakeholders from a wide range of backgrounds. Participants identified key influencing factors of integration, barriers for successful integration and tools to address these barriers. COSIGHT is now looking to transfer these findings to local policy makers.
Experience from these Labs seems to confirm the theoretical argument. A particular strength lies in the rich diversity of approaches. Even though the FUTURESILIENCE project provided an overarching guideline for a scenario process, each Lab interpreted this process according to the local specific requirements and capacities as IMMER and COSIGHT illustrate. As FUTURESILIENCE evolves, we will highlight further glimpses into the manifold discoveries made during the Labs’ foresight journey.

Imagine a virtual hub where you can explore the futures in your field of interest, whether it’s Food, Emerging Technologies, Democracy, or beyond.

Picture an inclusive agora where forward-looking practitioners come together to showcase their projects, results, and promote events. A place where individuals and organizations collaborate and inspire, inviting the entire Europe and the planet to witness this collective exhibition of future possibilities.

This is the vision behind futures4europe.eu!

Who’s behind it?
Supported by the European Commission, futures4europe.eu is entering its maturity phase: a major upgrade has been launched in November, in order to facilitate its role as the home of the European foresight community. 

This is a user generated content platform, meaning it’s up to the future oriented community, among which foresight practitioners and organizations, foresight beneficiaries, future sensitive artists to present their projects, results, and events. 

By design an inclusive space, futures4europe does not position itself as a competitor to other platforms, but as an integrator of various networks and associations of foresight and forward looking professionals and organisations

Currently the platform is managed under the Coordination and Support Action EYE OF EUROPE, but ultimately this is a public good, a socio-technical infrastructure that we nurture together to advance meaningful conversations on the futures of our society. 

What’s new?

The upgraded Futures4Europe platform offers an enhanced user experience, featuring multiple new improvements:

For Platform Visitors:

• Faster Navigation: Significantly improved speed for seamless browsing. 
• Intuitive Navigation: Introduction of hypertags—tags with an associated frequency of mentions for easier discovery of content.
• Streamlined Content Categories: Clearer classification of content, each with its own dedicated page (e.g., projects, results, events).
• Video Materials: Video integration for richer engagement.
  

For Platform Members:

• Instant Registration Confirmation: Quick and hassle-free registration process.
• Profile Creation: Ability to create both organizational and individual profiles, resembling social network functionality.
• User-Friendly Forms: Intuitive forms for adding new items, such as projects, results, events, and posts.
• Interconnected Information Flow: Automatic propagation of data between related pages (e.g., from a project page to the corresponding organization and person profiles).

With its new features, futures4europe.eu empowers users to build a vibrant, inclusive community shaping Europe's collective vision for the future.

Make this your New Year’s resolution! Register now and build your profile, then add your projects, results and events to the platform, and help shape the conversation about the futures we want to create together!

The online workshop on October 18–19, 2021, was the first in a series of interactive encounters involving foresight experts and practitioners from both EU services and the Member States. It focussed on exploring future dimensions and elements of contextual developments that may have important repercussions for EU R&I policies in general, and the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe in particular. An overarching goal of the workshop, as well as the series of interactive meetings, was to provide initial impetus for a broad and in-depth discussion on the big picture and framework conditions for EU R&I policymaking.

Nobody wants to die early. The desire to stay healthy and to have a long-lasting life is enormous. At first glance, it seems as if the increasing number of older people in the EU is in accordance with that. When having a closer look at that trend, three main factors seem to contribute to an overall older population: a generally increased life expectancy, a modern, readily accessible medical system, healthier lifestyles, and low birth rates. Migration is a counter-trend to the ageing society, as the majority of migrants to the EU are young families. This fact, however, does not substantially diminish the absolute number of older people in the EU. The potential consequences are diverse. Although people get older while being healthier, it is likely that the cost of health care will rise, putting an extra burden on the health insurance system. Hence, we might have to expect a clear social divide: Will only rich people be able to afford to get old? Or are the additional health-related costs going to be shifted to younger generations? Will the state have to step in?

What types of EU R&I policies would be effective in the years to come? How shall these policies help us explore and respond to the uncertainties of the future? 

Finding answers to these questions requires first of all imagining the context, in which future EU R&I policies might be situated. For doing this, we need to explore developments both at global level and within the European Union.

Making use of the four “Imaginaries for a Sustainable Europe* in 2050” presented by the European Environment Agency and the Eionet**

A proposal for a methodology to identify Megatrends and Grand societal challenges with a significance for Research and Innovation in the Czech Republic

After its hydrogen strategy in 2020, the EU has recognize d hydrogen as a key technology for achieving policy goals such as the European Green Deal. Its strategy is heavily focused on emissions-free green hydrogen, with a target to install 40 gigawatts of renewable hydrogen electrolyser capacity by 2030. How Europe is positioned against other global players in the race on hydrogen?

In 2019, around 120 million tonnes of hydrogen were produced globally, two-thirds of which is pure hydrogen and one-third of which is a mixture with other gases. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, followed by the US and India (Figure 1). 

The concept of the global commons refers to resource domains that fall outside national jurisdiction, to which all have access, including high seas, airspace, outer space and cyberspace. Given the growing significance of these domains and related resources for states and other global and local players across a range of purposes, defining the global commons concept has become more complex.

Hydrogen is „just“ an elementary molecule consisting of two hydrogen-atoms. Why is there so much fuss about this simple molecule that even a whole economy should or could be built upon it? The reaction of hydrogen (H2) with oxygen releases a lot of energy while forming pure water. In the other direction, water can be divided into hydrogen (H2) and oxygen with the help of electricity (there are of cause also other hydrogen building reactions mostly built on fossil fuels/biomass); this is simple chemistry. Compared to fossil fuels, water is nearly unlimited on the planet.

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, Prof. Benjamin Sovacool, together with the other members of the expert team, are developing, among others, this 'technological fix' scenario.

Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!   

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'green dream' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

This autumn, experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'coalition of sustainable communities' scenario. Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!

In this blog post - Hydrogen Economy in "Europe 2040", I raised the first set of questions relevant to our scenario process. Meanwhile, we had a series of interviews with our experts, drafted a list of influencing factors and defined the scope of the scenarios.

This autumn experts are developing alternative climate scenarios as part of a foresight project that helps prepare the 2nd Strategic Plan 2024-2027 of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for R&I. The project is conducted by the “Foresight on Demand” Consortium on behalf of the European Commission, DG RTD. In a Deep Dive area “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering”, together with the other members of the expert team, I am developing, among others, this 'deepening divisions' scenario.

Get involved, comment on the scenario and relate the scenario to recent developments!   

Global commons have been traditionally defined as those parts of the planet that fall outside national jurisdictions and to which all nations have access. International law identifies four global commons, namely the High Seas, the Atmosphere, the Antarctica and the Outer Space. These resource domains are guided by the principle of the common heritage of mankind. Resources of interest or value to the welfare of the community of nations – such as tropical rain forests and biodiversity - have lately been included among the traditional set of global commons as well, while some define the global commons even more broadly, including science, education, information and peace. To incorporate the potential for overuse by some at the expense of others, they can also include the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice sheets, a stable climate and biodiversity. 

The project “S&T&I for 2050” is structured around five intertwined tasks:

“S&T&I for 2050” aims at broadening the focus of STI to encompass multiple conceptualisations of human-nature relations. To do this, a framework was constructed around the concept of ecosystem performance as driver of STI, instead of human performance. This places the attention on the flourishing of ecosystems that is deeply connected to human needs and wellbeing.

There are an estimated billions of tonnes of strategic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, lying on the ocean’s floor. Technological advance, financial viability, and regulatory frameworks are slowly aligning to permit deep-sea mining (DSM). While many rejoice in these developments, a variety of actors are calling for a moratorium on the nascent industry. Most notably, the European Commission released a Joint Communication stating that not enough knowledge about the risks of DSM is available and that more research is to be conducted to make DSM sustainable. With deep-sea mining closer than ever to becoming a reality on the one hand, and calls for a moratorium on the other hand, it is important to discuss future directions of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) for a flourishing deep-sea ecosystem. 

Since hydrogen energy, in particular green hydrogen, is increasingly regarded as an important energy carrier in the EU's transition strategies towards a carbon-neutral future, questions concerning both the shape and size of a hydrogen economy need to be asked now. Green hydrogen, it is assumed, can play a significant role in the de-carbonization of high-energy-intensive industries and (some means of) transport as it can both deliver and store a tremendous amount of energy. For hydrogen energy to be sustainable - in other words, for it to be "green" - it must be produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar. However, since at least in some EU countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, the potential of renewable energy production is limited in the sense that it won't be able to meet projected green hydrogen demands, policymakers are increasingly looking to establish international partnerships to produce green hydrogen outside the EU and import it for national use - with a particular focus on countries in the Global South. 

What could a European energy system that includes hydrogen look like in 2040 in the context of different global, political, economic and social constellations in and around the continent?

The transition to renewable energy in Europe has evolved dynamically since the turn of the century. The share of renewable energy in the European Union more than doubled between 2004 and 2022. Nevertheless, renewable energy represents only 22 percent of overall energy consumption and 37 percent of electricity generation in the EU. In other words, Europe still has a long way to go, even when it comes to the relatively easy task of converting its electricity production to renewables.

To be of relevance to energy, green hydrogen and related technologies need to be scaled up hugely. To reach such a mass market, a low-cost clean-hydrogen supply must be available. However, to lower the price of hydrogen, much larger H2-markets and volumes are needed. The scale and the cost (of green hydrogen) go hand in hand. But they also form a classical Chicken and Egg problem, which many now successful clean energy technologies have likewise faced in the past and managed to overcome.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned the post-cold war world order upside down, and we are witnessing new global power constellations, block-building, and uncertainties that affect not only issues of military, deterrence, and defense but also the global economy, prosperity, and the social situation of the people. In the midst of this turmoil, the EU is confronted with finding a proper position and redefining its policies, its foreign, as well as internal relations. There is a chance for a proactive new neighborhood policy. Will the EU seize the momentum?  

The answer is probably, a classic: "it depends". Hydrogen is the smallest and lightest molecule in the world. It is about eight times lighter than methane. There's a lot of methane leakage around the world. And by "a lot", I really mean a lot. Satellite imagery by the European Space Agency collected data that proves there is significantly more leakage in the atmosphere than official estimates. And methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere (Source: Environmental Defense Fund - EDF). Some of this methane leakage is due to sheer industry negligence (oil and gas companies have been proven to do routine gas flaring), but also to bad casings, old pipes, and all sorts of infrastructure mishaps that are bound to happen in any industry. Now imagine how much easier is for hydrogen - a much lighter molecule than methane - to escape and leak, particularly when we blend it with natural gas in existing pipelines, as is the case in the plans of many countries in Europe - including Romania, my home country.  

National governments and multi-lateral organizations like the European Union, OECD, and UNESCO have identified values and principles for artificial narrow intelligence and national strategies for its development. But little attention has been given to identifying the beneficial initial conditions for future Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The initial conditions for AGI will determine if Artificial Super Intelligence will evolve to benefit humanity or not. Even if international agreements are reached on the beneficial initial conditions for AGI, a global governance system will still be needed to enforce them and oversee the development and management of AGI. Since it may take ten, twenty, or more years to create and ratify an international AGI treaty and establish a global AGI governance system, and since some experts believe it is possible to have AGI within ten to twenty years, it is therefore important to work on these issues as soon as possible. The most critical AGI issues are its initial conditions and global governance. These issues are important for governments to get right from the outset. The Millennium Project is currently exploring these issues.

Sharing lessons learned in foresight practices and experiences is important for the exchange for an impactful foresight community. The Mutual Learning Exercise can help foster community building and foresight capacities in different member states.

Proposed scenarios about the future should come with a pinch of salt. Without being perfectly accurate, they help prepare policymakers for better or worse. The REGROUP project funded under the Horizon Europe programme aims to advise the EU on how to address post-pandemic policy and institutional challenges by analysing the societal and political consequences of COVID-19 and considering the normative implications of the pandemic.

Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures.

Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality.

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

A journey in participatory democracy through challenges (and opportunities) of future-thinking approaches.

Street protests are just one aspect of social conflict, but often one of the first that come to mind. Despite the growth of online activism, street demonstrations are as significant as ever.

The Inspire project has been running at MOMus since 2012. In a fascinating anarchic creative environment, young artists are invited to create original artworks in one week under the guidance of an established artist. At the same time, curators are invited to set up the exhibition just hours before the official opening.

I very much enjoyed the Luxembourg Strategy event on 5 June 2023 presenting its draft vision for the Economy in 2050. Here is a country leading the way by setting out how to reach a zero-carbon future.

Under Pl@ntNet’s polar star, GUARDEN brings citizen science and predictive machine learning together to support decision-making in biodiversity conservation.

Future thinking capacity-building initiatives like PHIRI (https://www.phiri.eu/) invite policymakers to lend their ears to extreme and value-driven scenarios in post-pandemic population health.

SPROUT empowers cities to face urban transformation and disruptive innovation in sustainable mobility through the co-creation of resilient mobility policies.

With the rise of new digital technologies, crime is evolving in new and unpredictable directions. To re-duce their impact, it is becoming increasingly vital to anticipate their course.

ALIGNER aspires to rally European stakeholders anxious about AI's role in law enforcement. The project's goal is to create a unified front to identify strategies that will not only bolster the strength of law enforcement agencies through AI but also ensure public benefit. But how far into the future is it useful to look?

The world of hybrid threats presents a complex and ever-evolving landscape where traditional and non-traditional methods intertwine. With the rise of these multifaceted challenges, safeguarding the integrity of European democracies has become an urgent imperative. Initiatives like EU-HYBNET aim to enhance preparedness and to establish a European network to counter hybrid threats.

Social confrontations signify the struggle about how we want to shape our futures. Rooted in different narratives represented by different social groups they are often competing for the sovereignty of interpretation of what a particular future may look like and how we are to achieve it. Social confrontations are not a singular phenomenon; instead, we live in a world of multiple social confrontations, and they co-exist, overlap, and compete. The divides social confrontations create can go across all spheres of life: education, care, health, nutrition, energy, mobility, communication, race, gender, political power, migration, etc. This blog post explores how these developments are likely to impact the futures of democracy in Europe. To this end, we present four scenarios that chart diverging pathways on how social confrontations could evolve in the next 15 years under various drivers and trends and what role they could play for the democratic development in the EU. The four scenarios discuss various development paths - they are intended to explore diver-gent possibilities and do not always depict a preferable future.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here the four scenarios developed.

The immense social and technological evolution of the Anthropocene continues transforming the Earth’s surface and its dynamics through extensive (mis-)use of its resources, both on the land and in the sea. These challenges were addressed in the Deep Dive on rural and marine areas in Europe in 2050. We present here policy implications drafted based on the four scenarios developed.

Merging Design Futures and Art Thinking approaches for responsible, sustainable and future-proof innovation.

In the recently published brief ‘Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications’, we explore practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. We can see an increasing prominence of science in many public debates and the increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific and other advice mechanisms in the context of public debate. 

MOBI stretches the legal dimension, searching for normative responses to Big Tech’s composite power threats to free market competition and European democratic values.

Hexa-X’s 6G flagship research is shaping the design of European wireless technologies to be environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable, while ensuring competitiveness in the global market.

In the fast-moving realm of mobility, one fact stands out: the road to success requires new skills. To meet evolving customer needs, embrace cutting-edge technologies, and fulfil environmental commit-ments, the transport sector is turning to automation for sustainable, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility solutions. However, the interplay between automation, reskilling, and sustainability is more complex than meets the eye.

A successful shift to a circular economy requires multidisciplinary skillsets that integrate both business and technology aspects. However, circular economy or sustainability practices are not often seen as competitive advantages for companies. The ConnectedFactories project focussed on devising potential pathways to digital manufacturing, including circular economy from a broader perspective.

In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facilitate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and development of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process.

Project INNOPATHS explores different forward-looking scenarios leading to a completely decarbonised Europe by 2050. How attainable are these pathways and what are the skills in demand?

The 'Horizon Scanning – Tips and Tricks' publication provides an insightful step-by-step support on how to run an effective horizon scan - and how to address underlying biases while doing so.

Part of “decolonising” is to question one's own assumptions and asking questions to the ones in power. The term has a historical background that is broader than its metaphorical use. Futures Studies has been dealing with this topic in one form or another for over 50 years. This has brought about a rich body of work, including some thought-provoking and stimulating approaches and methods.

Social media provides a window into current debates, social issues and topics that are relevant to communities. This blog post summarises EUARENAS future-thinking work that used social media signals as its starting point to explore the future of democracy.

A recent policy brief, ‘Futures of the interpenetration of criminal and lawful economic activities in the European Union in 2035: Scenarios and policy Implications’, explores the regulatory, economic, and technological opportunities and ‘incentives’ for various types of criminal actors to penetrate the legal economy and derives policy implications for the EU and its member states.

In a world where the future often seems uncertain, how do local communities navigate the complexities of European policies to build a more resilient and equitable tomorrow? This is the intriguing question at the heart of RELOCAL, an EU -funded Horizon 2020 research project that ran between 2016 - 2021.

How can individuals practice critical thinking and effectively evaluate the credibility of sources in an age where information abounds but is not always accurate or truthful? Project CO-INFORM applied co-creation methods to develop verification tools with and for stakeholders such as journalists, policymak-ers, and citizens, to better prepare for situations in which the distinction between fact and fiction is not always evident.

Anselm Kamperman Sanders and Anke Moerland, Professors of Intellectual Property Law at Maastricht University, share their ‘expert-generated’ responses to prompts concerning the outlook of intellectual property regulation. The two coordinators of the Horizon 2020 European IP Institutes Network Innovation Society project (EIPIN-Innovation Society), completed in 2021, point to global trends and highlight how emerging challenges for IP regulation and innovation management are already on the table.

ReCreating Europe re-thinks copyri ght codes and the management of creativity in the digital era by looking at the interplay between copyright, access to culture, and fair representation of creators and users.

CREATIVE IPR traces the history of intellectual property rights in Europe to investigate how past battles and future challenges in IPR management for creative industries impact creators, businesses and consumers

In the ever-evolving landscape of intellectual property rights (IPR), the intersection with cutting-edge technologies and global challenges has become a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars alike. This article provides a comprehensive exploration of past, current, and upcoming efforts to shape the future of Intellectual Property Rights

The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out to strengthen European economic and social resilience through an enhanced ability to adapt and respond quickly to future crises. To reach this goal, the project sees Research and Innovation (R&I) playing a key role in building the capacity to anticipate, better prepare and be more flexible in crisis periods.

A new policy brief explores alternative future outcomes for green skills and jobs in Europe 2050. Based on participatory workshops and a foresight deep dive, the policy brief presents four alternative scenarios and their implications for R&I policy.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This post builds on the brief resulting from one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ conducted by the Foresight on Demand’ consortium for the European Commission. During the autumn of 2023, the core group identified factors of change and organised two scenario and one policy implications workshops also engaging experts from academia, business, and public administration around Europe. We aimed to assist policy-makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today.

Paulo Carvalho has been working in the field of futures and foresight for more than 25 years. On one hand, he is a professor in foresight, strategy and innovation at the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Lisbon. On the other hand, he founded a foresight company five years ago, IF Insight Foresight, focussing on consulting, horizon scanning and strategic intelligence, as well as other strategy and innovation projects. He talked to Futures4Europe about Insight Foresight’s recently developed tool ORION and how it could revolutionise foresight practices.

Futures4Europe interviewed Eye of Europe’s Coordinator, Radu Gheorghiu, foresight expert at UEFISCDI, the Romanian Research & Innovation funding agency. What does the future look like for R&I in Europe? How does foresight play a role? Radu provides a glimpse into these questions and Eye of Europe’s central role in them.

The following recently published and upcoming reports and books shed light on future-oriented insights with a special focus on Portugal. These materials explore a range of topics, from economic development and technological innovation to environmental sustainability and social trends specific to the region. By delving into these resources, readers can gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that Portugal may face in the coming years.

In a world where change is the only constant, strategic foresight is more critical than ever. The Tri-Scope Synthesis method offers a robust framework combining critical, futures and exponential thinking, equipping leaders and organizations with the tools to anticipate and influence their futures effectively.

Following the publishing of the Fourth Global Trends ESPAS report in April 2024, Futures4Europe had the pleasure of interviewing the editor and two co-authors of the report about their reflections and key trend insights throughout the foresight research and writing process. ESPAS, or the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, unites nine EU institutions and bodies to collaboratively identify and analyze medium- and long-term trends affecting the EU, informing policy-makers about their implications.

This is a call for professionals working in foresight in the Nordic countries to join the discussion and to contribute and influence the development and formation of the Nordic Foresight Network.

The 24th edition of the International Futures Research Conference was not short of insightful keynotes, newly published studies, and constructive exchanges in the field of foresight for the sustainable management of natural resources.

The conference took place from 5-7 June 2024, and aimed to explore what conceptions of “better worlds” are being pursued by STI policies.

Between 16th - 19th of July, Eye of Europe consortium partners AIT and Fraunhofer ISI attended the 2024 conference by the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) and the Society for Social Studies of Science (4S).

❓ Why hasn't the government gotten back to us about this great foresight study we did? 

If you are involved in #PolicyOrientedForesight, #AnticipatoryGovernance and #StrategicIntelligence, you may have questioned the fit and impact of your work on policy. In our new publication, Philine Warnke, Sylvia Veit and I problematize these complicated foresight-policy interactions.

📖 "Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions"

We propos e "institutionalization" as a process that shapes the formation of working practices and routines along four dimensions. Rather than trying to measure how foresight affects policy decisions, we are looking at how institutionalization affects the government's ability to absorb, interpret, and adopt anticipatory practices.

Our findings
-Decades of research on policy advice have taught us that simply providing 'better' methods does not necessarily result in 'greater' impact.
- We argue that one conducive factor for avoiding loose ends in foresight-policy interactions and facilitating absorption of results consists in its institutionalization along all dimensions (organizational, regulative, normative, and cognitive-cultural).
- foresight does not align well with the existing structures and procedures of the federal ministerial bureaucracy in Germany which are characterized by a strong departmental principle, resulting in ‘turf wars’ and ‘negative coordination’.
- The findings of our research suggest that a purely rationalist approach to the adaptation of foresight is inadequate.

This work represents the academic spin-off for an international readership of a study commissioned by the German Federal Chancellery and published in 2022.
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What will Europe look like in 2040? How will we travel, how will our society be organised, how will our schools function and what kind of jobs will people have? These are just some of the questions we have been asking Europeans to reflect on as part of the #OurFutures project launched by the EU Policy Lab. Through it, we collect EU citizens' images through a narrative inquiry method.

We recently did this in Greece, in close collaboration with foresight experts in the Greek government by reaching out to Greek citizens to gain insights into how people in this part of Europe would like the future to look like.

We have spoken to Epaminondas Christophilopoulos (UNESCO chair on Futures research at the Foundation for Research and Technology) and Vivian Efthimiopoulou (communication expert), focusing on some of their findings which demonstrate the value of citizen-generated future images for developing people-centric policies at both national and EU level.

We invited people across the EU to share their imagined futures. For this collection we, the European Commission’s Competence Centre on Foresight, used a narrative inquiry method. Instead of asking opinions about the future, we asked participants to share a story about their desirable future, followed by a few questions about that story, in order to more fully comprehend their thinking. In this process we were guided by Voices That Count.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the first 591 stories of people that participated so far, mostly from Greece and Slovenia, followed by Germany, Spain and Italy. Approximately half of them are students, and the other half mainly consists of employed people.