This report presents the outcomes of the Geopolitical Industrial Decarbonisation Scenarios workshop, convened on behalf of the Eye of Europe Horizon Europe project by the Insight Foresight Institute. Bringing together 30 participants from across the European Union—including policymakers at EU, national, and regional levels, industry leaders, energy and climate specialists, and foresight and forecasting experts—the workshop explored how the EU can navigate mounting geopolitical uncertainty while accelerating industrial decarbonization on a 2050 horizon.

The discussion was structured around two core aims. First, participants examined a suite of forward-looking geopolitical scenarios, assessing how divergent power dynamics, energy trade patterns, and technological trajectories could either hinder or catalyse the transition to a net-zero industrial base in the EU countries. Particular attention was paid to supply-chain resilience, strategic autonomy in critical materials, and the interplay between carbon border adjustments and global climate diplomacy. Second, the workshop sought to surface emergent research and innovation (R&I) needs and opportunities that would equip EU actors to thrive across the scenarios. Priorities highlighted include advanced electrification processes for hard-to-abate sectors, low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic-fuel value chains, circular-economy business models, and data-driven tools for real-time decarbonisation monitoring.

Outputs from the session feed directly into the Eye of Europe project’s multi-workshop learning cycle. Immediate products comprise this extended report for attendees; aggregated insights captured in the public Pilot Logbook Part I – What we did and Part II – What we learned; and distilled policy recommendations to be released in the Eye of Europe Policy Brief: Foresight Perspectives on Key R&I Topics. Beyond documentation, the Insight Foresight Institute will leverage the findings to stimulate agenda-setting dialogues with EU bodies and industrial stakeholders, ensuring that identified R&I pathways inform Horizon Europe programming and other EU-level funding instruments. Workshop materials and presentations are retrievable via the futures4europe.eu knowledge-sharing portal, reinforcing the project’s commitment to an open foresight community.

Our societies are facing increasingly complex sets of risks, and the rapid pace of change is challenging existing governance systems. There is a growing acknowledgement of the need to transform current approaches to policymaking and decision-making to become more futureoriented in support of anticipatory action and building long-term resilience.

The UN Summit of the Future, held in September 2024, marked a pivotal moment in global governance. The Pact for the Future, including its annexes on a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations, was adopted by the UN General Assembly by consensus and committed to a broad range of priorities to ensure that the multilateral system is better able to
address the realities of today and prepare for the challenges of tomorrow.

To contribute to fostering a culture of anticipation and preparedness, and to building a multilateral system that remains relevant for current and future generations, the UN Futures Lab/Global Hub and the International Science Council (ISC) have collaborated to better understand the concrete and transformational role of futures thinking and strategic foresight in informing decision-making and action. Futures thinking and strategic foresight are key to helping us address complex issues and deal with significant uncertainty – and to embedding long-term perspectives that consider policy implications on future generations.

Drawing on case studies from the Global South , this joint paper demonstrates the versatility of foresight practices with a focus on tangible actions for decision-makers and policymakers. It also illustrates how these approaches can support anticipatory governance and resilience building, offering lessons learned and practical recommendations.

The selection of 14 case studies presented in this report reflect balance across geographies, themes, sectors, stakeholders, and foresight tools. The case studies illustrate a range of impacts, primarily through a typology of approaches by desired outcomes as outlined below:

📌Local and Indigenous Knowledge, Sources, and Practices

        📌Building Local Capacities and Durable Solutions from Community-Led Initiatives

        📌Multistakeholder Partnerships and Collaborations

        📌Organizational Development

        📌Sector-Wide Policy Development and Innovation

        📌Futures Empowered by Technological Advancements and Innovation

        📌Improved Social Outcomes/Social Well-Being for Marginalized Communities

        📌Rebuilding Narratives

🔗Source: UN Futures Lab/Global Hub and the International Science Council (2025). Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Action: Insights from the Global South, New York. unfutureslab.org/project/futures-thinking-and-strategic-foresight-in-action-insights-from-the-global-south

The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.


We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.

How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/ 

What was the challenge?

The Research Council of Norway (RCN) identified five strategic areas in pursuit of ground-breaking research, radical innovation and sustainable development. RCN required a robust evidence base to help develop long-term, priority missions to help solve one or more societal challenges, as well as underpinning structural measures of the research environment in Norway. The five strategic areas include: Oceans; Green transition; Health and welfare; Cohesion and globalisation; and Technology and digitalisation.

How did we approach it?

We adopted a mixed method, participatory approach involving a variety of research tools such as trend analyses, literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, crowdsourcing ideas from experts, a survey of the public, future scenario analyses and workshops.

The core foresight work allowed us to examine what might happen in the next ten years in the different strategic areas and wider R&I system in Norway. Scenarios of future states were used as the basis for workshop discussions to stress test potential missions and structural measures that the RCN could consider developing and implementing in the future.

What was the outcome or impact of the work?

Extensive findings from this research were published in a series of nine reports. The research was cited as evidence in the RCN’s input to the 2022 revision of the Long-Term Plan for Research and Higher Education 2019–2028, which specifies the Norwegian government’s ambitions, key objectives and priority areas for research and higher education.

The study also helped inform the RCN’s internal decision making, strategies and organisational activities. In addition, a summary of the findings and proposals was presented to the relevant Norwegian minister.

Project webpage: https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/2021/future-research-innovation-norway.html 

Research outputs:

• Summary report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-1.pdf 
• Addressing future societal challenges in Norway: Detailed methodology report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-2.pdf
• A summary of potential cross-cutting missions to address future societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-3.pdf
  
  Structural measures to develop a resilient research and innovation environment in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-4.pdf
  
  Health and welfare: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-5.pdf
  
  Oceans: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-6.pdf
  
  Technology and digitalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-7.pdf
  
  Cohesion and globalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-8.pdf
  
  Green transition: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-9.pdf

We empower you to work with the future. Our ideas show organizations how to deal with terms like weak signals, trends or white spots, and at the same time energizing to position themselves. We like discussing new developments and trends, with their respective effects on the organization, in order to design frameworks for actions and strenghten the matching future-attitude and accompanying measures.Schaltzeit has successfully provided consulting and operational services within the areas of foresight, ideation, experiences, software and design, to organizations in sectors such as telecommunication, automotive, biotechnology, software development, medicine, cosmetics and others.
We ignite and accompany you on your way to success.
Schaltzeit fills gaps, optimizes processes and forms the link between actors and processes in order to make results transparent and usable and sustainably establishes future-oriented thinking and acting.

WE HAVE A SOCIAL MISSION: TO STIMULATE CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES.
We focus on Futures & Foresight (Futures Thinking / Futures Studies & Strategic Foresight), with a specialization in Technology Foresight and ETS, Emerging Technologies Scanning. We are also dedicated to Futures Literacy, which involves the theoretical and practical literacy of Futures Studies and Futures Thinking. Through a Slow Journalism model, we disseminate and promote knowledge of emerging technologies, analyzing their potential impacts on our possible and alternative futures.

6th SCAR Foresight

Summary

Core Themes
The book reimagines humanity’s future through planetary foresight, blending historical wisdom with planetary stewardship. It critiques linear Western progress narratives and advocates for a hybrid, cyclical vision of history, emphasizing pluralistic identities and reverence for life.

Structural Framework
Organized into thematic sections, the work begins with “The Mysterious Lord of Time,” challenging linear temporality and introducing non-linear, culturally diverse historical perspectives. “Evolving Belief Systems” contrasts Indo-Iranic, Mesopotamian, and Hellenic thought with Abrahamic traditions, highlighting ancient influences on modern pluralism.

Imagination and Futures
The “Histories of Imagination” section explores myth and storytelling as drivers of civilization, while “Scenarios of Future Worlds” applies foresight methodologies to geopolitical and technological evolution, emphasizing ecological consciousness. The final chapters expand to cosmic intelligence and ethics, framing humanity’s role within universal interconnectedness.

Ethical Vision
Central to the thesis is a call for planetary identity and stewardship, merging forgotten wisdom traditions with modern foresight to navigate ecological and technological uncertainties. The book positions itself as both a philosophical guide and practical framework for ethical transformation in an era of global crises.

Key Argument
Motti asserts that humanity is transitioning from a “Second Nomad Age” (characterized by fragmentation) toward a “Second Settlement Age” marked by planetary consciousness, requiring creative complexity and ethical vigilance.

Foresight seems to be on everyone’s lips these days – but what is it really and, more importantly, how can you use it in your own work? This “menu” is designed to help policymakers understand and leverage foresight for more effective strategy- building and decision-making.

Foresight is about thinking long-term to make smarter choices now. It is a collective effort to look beyond the present and consider what could happen in the future. Foresight isn’t about gazing into a crystal ball, but a way to methodically broaden our perspective and prepare for different possible futures scenarios.

There are many reasons and ways to engage in long-term thinking for policymaking. This menu showcases the various goals and approaches of foresight in policy contexts, featuring tools and processes that the EU Policy Lab can offer. 

Source: European Commission - Knowledge for policy  

Die gegenwärtige Zeit ist geprägt von rasanten und oft gleichzeitig stattfindenden Veränderungen und
Entwicklungen: Technologien wie Künstliche Intelligenz (KI), neue regulative Anforderungen wie die CSRD
oder der EU AI Act sowie gesellschaftliche und politische Herausforderungen sorgen für dynamische und
disruptive Zukunftsperspektiven mit spezifischen Anforderungen an die Resilienz und das
Innovationsmanagement. Die strategische Vorausschau (Foresight) gewinnt aus diesem Grund sowohl in
Unternehmen als auch in der Forschung zunehmend an Bedeutung.

Der Workshop „Foresight in Theorie und Praxis“ dient daher als Forum, um Akteure aus Unternehmen und
wissenschaftlichen Einrichtungen zusammenzubringen und Erfahrungswerte sowie Kooperationspotenziale
der strategischen Vorausschau zu diskutieren. Insbesondere soll dabei auch die Bedeutung der Informatik
für den Aufbau und die Weiterentwicklung eines Foresight-Prozesses berücksichtigt werden. 

Folgende Fragestellungen bieten eine Orientierung über die thematischen Schwerpunkte des Workshops:

1. Welche Forschungsansätze im Bereich Foresight existieren bereits? Wo gibt es weiteren
   Forschungsbedarf?
2. Wie werden Forschungsansätze derzeit bereits in der Praxis angewandt? Wodurch zeichnen sich
   diese aus und wo liegen die Grenzen?
3. Wie gestaltet sich strategische Vorausschau in Unternehmen? Wie unterscheidet sich diese in
   Großunternehmen und KMU?
4. Wie kann strategische Vorausschau in wissenschaftlichen Einrichtungen umgesetzt werden? Wo
   liegen Unterschiede zur unternehmerischen Herangehensweise, wo gibt es Gemeinsamkeiten?
5. Wie können digitale Technologien (z. B. IT-Anwendungen, KI) die strategische Vorausschau
   unterstützen und verbessern? Welche Ressourcen und Kompetenzen sind hierfür erforderlich?

Die Beiträge zum Workshop können verschiedene Aspekte von Foresight bzw. strategischer Vorausschau
behandeln. Mögliche Themen sind (nicht abschließend):

• Methoden der strategischen Vorausschau
• Anwendung von Foresight in Unternehmen
• Anwendung von Foresight in wissenschaftlichen Einrichtung
• Digitale Technologien zur Unterstützung von Foresight (z. B. KI, Big Data, Simulationen)
• KI und Foresight
• Simulationstechniken
• Datenanalysen/Datenmangement
• Szenariotechniken
• Trendanalysen
• Horizon Scanning
• Innovationsmanagement
• Organisatorische und kulturelle Herausforderungen der strategischen Vorausschau
• Regulatorische und ethische Aspekte von Foresight
• Unternehmensstrategie und Foresight
• Risikomanagement mit Foresight
• Best Practices und Praxisberichte

Zielgruppe des Workshops sind Forschende und Anwendende aus dem Bereich strategische Vorausschau
bzw. Foresight sowie:

• Fach- und Führungskräfte aus Unternehmen, die strategische Vorausschau in ihre Planung
  integrieren
• Beratende im Bereich Zukunftsforschung und Trendanalyse
• Verantwortliche für Innovations- und Technologiemanagement
• Entscheidungsträger*innen in Politik und Verwaltung, die zukunftsorientierte Strategien entwickeln
• IT-Experten*innen und Entwickler*innen von digitalen Foresight-Tools
• Wissenschaftler*innen und Studierende mit Interesse an Foresight-Methoden

HINWEISE ZUR EINREICHUNG

Einreichungsfrist für Workshop-Beiträge: 04.05.2025
Benachrichtigung der Autoren: 02.06.2025
Einreichungsfrist für LNI-Beiträge: 11.06.2025
Workshop: 19.09.2025

Die Einreichung der Beiträge erfolgt als PDF über EasyChair.

Für die Beiträge sind die LNI-Vorlagen zu verwenden.

Beiträge können in deutscher oder englischer Sprache verfasst werden und sollten folgenden Umfang nicht überschreiten:

Full Paper: 10-12 Seiten

Short Paper: 6 Seiten

Work-In-Progress-Paper: 3-5 Seiten

Praxisbeiträge aus der Industrie: 3-5 Seiten

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

OECD has released the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, designed to help policymakers anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.

By exploring 25 potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Toolkit equips governments with a practical, five-step foresight methodology to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop future-ready policies. It includes facilitation guides, case studies, and actionable insights to support resilience in an uncertain world.