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    Last Edited: 6 days ago

    Elena Aminova1

    I will know how

    Posted on: 09/05/2025

    Last Edited: 15 days ago

    Foresight and Policy: Future-Proofing the Assumptions Behind Policies for a Greener EuropeFebruary 2025

    Insights into Circular Economy, Clean Air, Transport and Bioeconomy Policies

    This report offers an in-depth foresight assessment that critically evaluates and questions the foundational assumptions of European environmental policies related to the Green Deal. To enhance the resilience of these frameworks, the two-year study utilises a comprehensive set of methods, including impact wheel analysis, Ishikawa diagrams, cross-impact analysis, semi-structured interviews, and causal layered analysis. This approach reveals the cascading effects, entrenched cognitive biases, and intricate interdependencies present in policy design. These techniques facilitate a detailed examination of specific policy areas while providing a systemic perspective on how the connections among circular economy, bioeconomy, clean air and health, and the decarbonisation of transport impact overall sustainability results. By harnessing these diverse foresight techniques, the assessment reveals that conventional policy narratives are often oversimplified, obscuring risks and trade-offs that, if unchallenged, may impede a successful transition to a sustainable Europe. The impact wheel and Ishikawa diagrams facilitate the structured identification of primary and secondary effects, while the cross-impact analysis maps the interactive dynamics between assumptions. Semi-structured interviews provide nuanced stakeholder perspectives that uncover underlying worldviews and metaphors shaping policy discourse when synthesised via causal layered analysis. The study offers actionable recommendations for enhancing policy resilience, promoting integrated governance, and fostering adaptive strategies capable of addressing the multipronged challenges posed by environmental uncertainty.

    Source: Eionet - ETCs- ETC Sustainability transitions (ETC ST) - Products  

    Posted on: 30/04/2025

    Last Edited: a month ago

    Holger Glockner1

    Posted on: 18/04/2025

    Last Edited: a month ago

    Pedro de Senna1

    Performance for Futures

    Posted on: 16/04/2025

    Last Edited: a month ago

    Foresight MenuJanuary 2025

    Foresight Processes for Policymaking

    Foresight seems to be on everyone’s lips these days – but what is it really and, more importantly, how can you use it in your own work? This “menu” is designed to help policymakers understand and leverage foresight for more effective strategy- building and decision-making.

    Foresight is about thinking long-term to make smarter choices now. It is a collective effort to look beyond the present and consider what could happen in the future. Foresight isn’t about gazing into a crystal ball, but a way to methodically broaden our perspective and prepare for different possible futures scenarios.

    There are many reasons and ways to engage in long-term thinking for policymaking. This menu showcases the various goals and approaches of foresight in policy contexts, featuring tools and processes that the EU Policy Lab can offer. 

    Source: European Commission - Knowledge for policy  

    Posted on: 15/04/2025

    Last Edited: a month ago

    Samira Yaghouti1

    Posted on: 13/04/2025

    Last Edited: 3 months ago

    Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH1

    We work to shape a future worth living around the world.

    GIZ Profile: sustainable development for a liveable future

    As a service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work, we are dedicated to shaping a future worth living around the world. We have over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas, including economic development and employment promotion, energy and the environment, and peace and security. The diverse expertise of our federal enterprise is in demand around the globe – from the German Government, European Union institutions, the United Nations, the private sector, and governments of other countries. We work with businesses, civil society actors and research institutions, fostering successful interaction between development policy and other policy fields and areas of activity. Our main commissioning party is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

    How GIZ uses Foresight Methods: As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is greatly affected by the business environment in which it operates and by trends in Germany, Europe and the world. Dealing with the resulting uncertainty, complexity and fast-paced change is often very challenging. This makes it important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and for the crises it will have to address, ultimately making the company and its staff more resilient.  

    Posted on: 06/02/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Wenzel Mehnert1

    The future ain't what it used to be.

    Posted on: 29/01/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Joe Ravetz1

    Posted on: 27/01/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Amos Taylor1

    Futures Researcher

    Posted on: 23/01/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Simon Önnered1

    Posted on: 20/01/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Patricia Lustig1

    Posted on: 03/01/2025

    Last Edited: 4 months ago

    Amos Taylor1

    Posted on: 03/01/2025

    Last Edited: 5 months ago

    EU Policy Lab1

    The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.

    We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.

    The EU Policy Lab is also a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.

    The Competence Centre on Foresight is part of the EU Policy Lab and supports EU policy making by providing strategic and future-oriented input, developing an anticipatory culture inside the European Commission, and continuously experimenting and developing different methods and tools to make foresight useful for decision making processes. 

    Posted on: 16/12/2024

    Last Edited: 6 months ago

    Insight Foresight Institute1

    IF-Institute

    Posted on: 25/11/2024

    Last Edited: 6 months ago

    DLR Project Management Agency (DLR-PT)1

    German service provider for the management of research, education and innovation

    Posted on: 25/11/2024

    Last Edited: 7 months ago

    Digital TransitionJune 2023

    Long-Term Implications of the Digital Transition for Farmers and Rural Communities

    Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long term implications.


    This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. The report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit

    The blog post reveals the goals and steps of the foresight process and explains how visioning can support transitions. 

    Posted on: 28/10/2024

    Last Edited: 7 months ago

    Digital Transition1

    Long-Term Implications of the Digital Transition for Farmers and Rural Communities

    Project

    Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet the digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long-term implications. 

    European Commission’s foresight project coordinated by EU Policy Lab together with the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI) in 2023-2024 explored the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. 

    The digital transition will occur in a rapidly changing world faced with climate change, environmental degradation, geopolitical instability, shifting supply networks, and evolving consumer demand. This study's foresight scenarios suggest that digitalisation can catalyse transformation, aiding in coping with shocks, knowledge acquisition, community building, and system-related thinking. But at the same time, it can also reinforce inequalities and introduce rigidities. Therefore, digitalisation support should aim to create sustainable food systems and robust, connected, and prosperous rural areas and communities. 

    A sound digital transition strategy should promote agricultural and rural resilience, green transition, digital citizenship for farmers and communities, and overall well-being. Digitalisation should uphold values like trust, equality, power, sovereignty, and care. Its execution should prioritise collaboration, accessibility, people-centric design, and circularity. Key enablers for a successful digital transition include capacity building for digital skills, fostering a robust digital ecosystem, investing in infrastructure and connectivity, and securing sufficient funding. 

    Read the blog post to learn more about the project.

    Science for Policy Report

    Based on a participatory foresight process, the Digital transition: Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communities - report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit.

    Toolkit

    The toolkit can help decision makers engage in strategic conversations about the implications of digital transition for farmers and rural communities. The tookit includes questions and activities to inform a digital strategy for agriculture and rural areas.The toolkit can help to:
    Uncover key issues to reflect on when building a digitalisation vision and strategy.
    Engage stakeholders to develop or improve the existing digital strategy.
    Increase your anticipatory capacity and future-proof your digital transition strategy.
    Learn more and download the toolkit.  

    Interactive Vision Framework

    The vision framework outlines the key elements that can support the digital transition of agriculture and rural areas.What is the purpose of digital transition from the perspectives of farmers and rural communities? Which values and principles should guide it? What are the enablers for the adoption and use of digital technologies? Explore the interactive Vision Framework 

    Lead

    Posted on: 22/10/2024

    Last Edited: 7 months ago

    Prospectiva1

    Institutul de Prospectiva

    Institutul de Prospectiva is a research organisation (NGO) with the mission to stimulate future-awareness aimed at addressing the challenges of contemporary societies. To this end, we implement tailored foresight exercises supporting strategic orientation in the public sector, with a focus on foresight for R&I policy at European and national level.

    Prospectiva is part of the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) consortium, tasked with advising the European Commission and fourteen other EU organisations on science and technology policy programming for a period of four years (April 2024 – March 2028).
    This is an extension of the previous successful cooperation within the Foresight on Demand framework contract (2019-2023); during this period Prospectiva has contributed to numerous projects, on components related to horizon scanning, large scale Delphi consultations, scenario building, co-creation workshops, speculative design, and the elaboration of various briefs, in-depth case studies and reports. These projects addressed a range of themes, among which the future of food, of retail, of ecosystems’ flourishing, and even of the human condition.

    Posted on: 14/10/2024