6th SCAR Foresight

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

The stages of the implemented process were as follows:

1. Shared understanding of the current situation in the mountain areas
The discussions within the working groups started from a set of summarized information from the extensive analyses previously conducted, structured by strengths and weaknesses, along with additional synthetic data on the tourism, agriculture, forestry, and wood industry sectors.

2. Selection of the drivers of change
The working groups explored and enriched a list of factors/trends that influence the contextual change toward the 2035 horizon, across various dimensions: social, technological, economic, ecological, geopolitical, and values-based factors.

3. Scenario projection for 2035
Based on thematically grouped change drivers, the working groups envisioned and described the state of mountain areas in 2035 under the influence of these drivers, in the absence of strategic corrective interventions.

4. Identification of aspirations – key values, opportunities, best practices
The groups proposed and debated a series of values and aspirations for the future of mountain areas by 2035, including inspiration from best practices in other countries.

5. Consolidation of aspirations into clear directions for transforming mountain areas
This stage involved grouping aspirations by thematic areas, more clearly articulating the transformation vector, and partially exploring concrete actions that would enable these transformations. The sum of these transformation directions forms the **Vision for mountain areas by 2035**.

6. Roadmapping - includes the set of actions that support progress toward the desirable transformation of the mountain areas, across multiple levels.

7. Priority directions
Participants in the workshops identified the actions perceived as the most impactful and/or urgent in transforming mountain areas.

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

This report showcases the results of the two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey carried out within the project “S&T&I for 2050. Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. The overarching ambition of this project is the “identification and mapping of future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance”. The main outcome is to provide “reflections towards the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (HE), in its broad direction to support the Sustainable Development Goals.”

To this end, quantitative and qualitative methods were employed, among which this report refers to:  

• Patent and bibliometric analysis for selecting the most dynamic Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) domains; 
• Horizon scanning through web mining and human evaluation for identifying key STI directions and specific examples of technological/scientific breakthroughs within these directions; 
• Dynamic Argumentative Delphi engaging relevant experts from around the world in an argument-based exploration regarding the contribution of STI to the capability of ecosystems to flourish from now to 2050. 

GIZ Profile: sustainable development for a liveable future

As a service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work, we are dedicated to shaping a future worth living around the world. We have over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas, including economic development and employment promotion, energy and the environment, and peace and security. The diverse expertise of our federal enterprise is in demand around the globe – from the German Government, European Union institutions, the United Nations, the private sector, and governments of other countries. We work with businesses, civil society actors and research institutions, fostering successful interaction between development policy and other policy fields and areas of activity. Our main commissioning party is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

How GIZ uses Foresight Methods: As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is greatly affected by the business environment in which it operates and by trends in Germany, Europe and the world. Dealing with the resulting uncertainty, complexity and fast-paced change is often very challenging. This makes it important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and for the crises it will have to address, ultimately making the company and its staff more resilient.  

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology.

This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe. Mission Boards were appointed to elaborate visions for the future in five Areas: Adaptation to Climate Change, Including Societal Transformation; Cancer; Healthy Oceans, Seas, and Coastal and Inland Waters; Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities; Soil Health and Food. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported them with foresight expertise and methodology. This report provides the work in support of the Mission Board on Soil Health and Food. Adopting a long-term perspective, the project first contributed to better understand the drivers, trends and weak signals with the most significant potential to influence the future of soil health and food. With the Mission Board, three scenarios for 2040 were sketched. In the final step, system-thinking knowledge was applied to identify concepts, solutions, and practices able to promote systematic change in the sector.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated. 

Arctik is a Brussels-based communications agency recognised for its strategic and creative communication capacity in the field of sustainability. Arctik develops tailored public relations and communication strategies that take both objectives and resulting impact into account. We facilitate the creation of communities and networks that contribute towards circulating content, whilst cultivating meaningful dialogues and synergies between influencers and decision-makers.

Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence.
Our team has a strong commitment to sustainability. We incorporate sustainable values into operations Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence. and consider environmental and social factors in every business decision, while encouraging our partners and clients to think circular! Arctik is also registered to obtain the Brussels ‘Enterprise ecodynamique’ label. 

Arctik, as part of Technopolis Group is present in more than 10 countries with 300 consultants originating from +45 countries and speaking +30 languages. This diversity offers a unique perspective on what local-level stakeholders are receptive to. 

Our offices are located in : • Austria • Belgium • Colombia • France • Germany • Ivory Coast • Netherlands • Greece • Portugal • Sweden • Ivory Cost • Colombia • United Kingdom.

Our solutions: Strategy • Messaging and copywriting • Online and offline engagement • Thought-provoking design • Web services • Project Management • Video and animation • Data-driven communication • Events • Social media campaigns & monitoring • Knowledge management and Capitalisation • Media and visibility.

Our expertise: Regional Policy, Circular Economy, Climate Services, Education, Entrepreneurship, Science & Innovation.

Arctik is part of Technopolis |group|
Website www.arctik.eu
LinkedIn linkedin.com/company/arctik/
Bluesky bsky.app/profile/arctik.eu 

Renewing rural generations, via the provision of green jobs and accessible farming enterprises, has powered the EU-sponsored RURALIZATION project looking to promote synergies between agriculture policymakers and local rural communities in painting attractive rural futures.

Considering prevalent trends, such as population growth, increasing demand for animal protein, land use change, and resource scarcity, a blueprint for future crops may help prioritise sustainable and efficient agriculture practices, as well as improved food systems. CropBooster-P, funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme, is a project that aimed to find a solution to this question by looking into innovative crop-breeding technologies for improving climate adaptability, resource use efficiency, yield, and quality.

FAO’s Office of Innovation is working with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim is to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making. The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking. The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts.

SF4S is a collaborative action with partners from Higher Education institutions (HEIs), Vocational Education and Training (VET) providers, innovation networks and business entities from the Agri-food, Health and the Mobility sectors.

Carried out between July 2022 - June 2025, SF4S supports our transition to a more sustainable European economy by helping to address the lack of green, digital and future (i.e. sustainability foresight) skills among students and professionals and by connecting knowledge flows between HEI, VET and industry actors that are necessary for Europe to develop cooperative solutions on a large-scale and support the recommendations for action in the major reports and initiatives: Green Deal, NextGenerationEU, European Skills Agenda and OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030.

4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market.

This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026.

OrganicTargets4EU supports the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in achieving the targets of at least 25% of the EU's agricultural land under organic farming and a significant increase in organic aquaculture by 2030.

Activities

OrganicTargets4EU for reaching these targets and identifies key drivers and lock-ins affecting the development of organic agriculture and aquaculture in 29 countries (EU-27+CH+NO). 

Production and Market analysis of the identified scenarios to provide a picture of:

• Where increases in organic farmland can be achieved
• The socio-economic impacts of these increases at the level of primary production, value chains, and markets
• The mechanisms that can drive demand for organic food 

Knowledge & Innovation actions to:

• Identify opportunities to strengthen organic advisory services
• Stimulate the exchange of scientific and practical knowledge
• Increase and coordinate R&I investments in the organic sector 

Policy work facilitating a multi-actor policy dialogue to:

• Assess the feasibility of the organic Farm-to-Fork targets
• Supports the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), EU Organic Regulation, Organic Action Plan
• Provide short-term policy options (policy framework up to 2027) and policy recommendations in the next policy reform (from 2028 onwards).

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long term implications.


This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. The report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit

The blog post reveals the goals and steps of the foresight process and explains how visioning can support transitions. 

Project

Successfully managing the green and digital transitions is a crucial factor that could increase the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU and shape its future. Yet the digitalisation of agriculture and rural areas raises vital questions about winners and losers, costs, benefits, and long-term implications. 

European Commission’s foresight project coordinated by EU Policy Lab together with the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI) in 2023-2024 explored the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes. 

The digital transition will occur in a rapidly changing world faced with climate change, environmental degradation, geopolitical instability, shifting supply networks, and evolving consumer demand. This study's foresight scenarios suggest that digitalisation can catalyse transformation, aiding in coping with shocks, knowledge acquisition, community building, and system-related thinking. But at the same time, it can also reinforce inequalities and introduce rigidities. Therefore, digitalisation support should aim to create sustainable food systems and robust, connected, and prosperous rural areas and communities. 

A sound digital transition strategy should promote agricultural and rural resilience, green transition, digital citizenship for farmers and communities, and overall well-being. Digitalisation should uphold values like trust, equality, power, sovereignty, and care. Its execution should prioritise collaboration, accessibility, people-centric design, and circularity. Key enablers for a successful digital transition include capacity building for digital skills, fostering a robust digital ecosystem, investing in infrastructure and connectivity, and securing sufficient funding. 

Read the blog post to learn more about the project.

Science for Policy Report

Based on a participatory foresight process, the Digital transition: Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communities - report presents the outcomes of this exploration, proposing building blocks for an effective EU digital transition strategy for agriculture and rural areas supported by a hands-on policymaker’s toolkit.

Toolkit

The toolkit can help decision makers engage in strategic conversations about the implications of digital transition for farmers and rural communities. The tookit includes questions and activities to inform a digital strategy for agriculture and rural areas.The toolkit can help to:
Uncover key issues to reflect on when building a digitalisation vision and strategy.
Engage stakeholders to develop or improve the existing digital strategy.
Increase your anticipatory capacity and future-proof your digital transition strategy.
Learn more and download the toolkit.  

Interactive Vision Framework

The vision framework outlines the key elements that can support the digital transition of agriculture and rural areas.What is the purpose of digital transition from the perspectives of farmers and rural communities? Which values and principles should guide it? What are the enablers for the adoption and use of digital technologies? Explore the interactive Vision Framework 

Anticipatin and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) 2023-2024 to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. Learn more about the project from its's three different branches. 

Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness. The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post :Everybody is looking into the future: a technology foresight perspective 

Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction. The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives. The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC. 

Read EU Policy Lab blog post: Technology foresight: anticipating the innovations of tomorrow 

Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

 In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change. In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning. Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.