Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive and quantifiable information regarding the sustainability and resilience of environmentally friendly European Livestock Production Systems (ELPS). The Horizon-funded STEP UP Project addresses this gap and aims at giving policymakers clear information on the effects (both positive and negative) of raising animals and better farming methods throughout Europe. Part of this project aims to map foresight studies and identify the factors that influence scenarios (drivers) and the synergies and trade-offs between impacts in order to build scenario archetypes, as well as highlight possibly neglected drivers, impacts, or externalities. The result of this task informed the scenario building being currently carried out.

In this work, we conducted a meta-analysis of foresight studies considering the time horizon post-2020 - 2050, in which the possible futures of European livestock productions were described. The originality of the approach consisted in constructing ‘sets of possible futures’ based on existing foresight exercises and the extraction of key variables. The method is inspired by systematic reviews developed in particular in the biomedical and environmental sciences field and by the French research project ScenEnvi, which compared international environmental scenarios and aggregated them in “archetypal families” . The aim was to identify the different families of scenarios built by European politics, scientific and economic stakeholders involved in these foresight exercises, and to identify any externalities or impacts of livestock systems that were neglected in these studies.

Using a multiple correspondence analysis, our analysis resulted in seven families of scenarios:
1. “Economically successful intensive bet”;
2. “Intensification with limited success”;
3. “Sustainable technology and green growth for cattle”;
4. “Governance by an organised sector: between modernisation, labelling and management of environmental impacts”;
5. “Coexistence and segmentation”;
6. “Sustainable efficiency and protectionism”;
7. “(Much) less but better”.

The cross comparison of the seven scenario families reveals a clear gradient from deregulated, high output intensification (families 1–2) towards tightly regulated, socio ecological transitions (families 6–7), with families 3–5 occupying intermediate, hybrid positions.

Taken together, these scenarios portray a coherent narrative arc. Early families represent globalised, technology driven intensification with minimal societal oversight. Mid range families experiment with sustainable intensification and coexistence, balancing productivity with emergent ethical environmental norms. The final families embody a paradigmatic shift: strong public (and local) governance, eco centric regulation, reduced trade dependency, territorial re embedding of LPS and widespread adoption of agro ecological principles.

EIT Food Consumer Observatory is organising online workshops focusing on the consumer acceptance of functional and processed food and alternative proteins by 2035. The online workshops are organised on September 11 and 18, from 10 to 13 hours CET. This is an open invitation to participate. It is free, just write us to consider your participation and learn more about the process: info@if-institute.org

What to expect in the workshops:
Before the workshops: Read this brief background document to familiarise yourself with the approach and prepare for the workshops.
During the workshops: Discuss and participate by writing your comments via MS Teams chat and the Miro board sticky notes. Note that the workshops will be recorded to enable automated transcription in Teams.
After the workshops: The expert team will develop scenario narratives, which are presented and discussed further in another workshop on November 4th 10-13 CET, which allows the reflection of scenario implications for the current agrifood ecosystem. Finally, a policy brief will be published end of the year.

Last year, we did a similar process focusing on the future of new food products and experiences and One Health. More information here:
https://if-institute.org/futures-of-food-consumption-in-2035-in-europe-on-sustainability-health-and-technology 

Supported by the European Union (EU), EIT Food is the world’s largest food innovation community – its mission is three-fold aiming at healthier lives through food, a net zero food system and reducing risk for a fair and resilient food system. Its Consumer Observatory is Europe’s central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. The observatory has identified general and consumer-specific trends and other driving forces, which were used as a starting point for this scenario work. During the summer and autumn 2024, Insight Foresight Institute organised online workshops to develop four alternative future scenarios and their implications to stakeholders.

Scenarios are not predictions of the likely future, but they depict possible futures. Exploring alternative scenarios helps to expand one’s own span of observation further towards the future, and to possible threats and opportunities that otherwise might not be in the immediate attention span, or just being excluded for being unlikely. While the scenarios often consist of a possible future state and the pathway from the present to that future, in this case, our narratives of the future (written in the present tense, as if we were already in the future) describe each a different day in 2035.

The work focuses on the futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in 2035 in Europe, specifically with regards to emerging technological opportunities for new products and retail experiences as well as to (un)sustainable and (un)healthy consumer choices. These dimensions provided a structure that ensured that each of the four scenarios was truly different:
• Scenario A: GREEN AND ME - A Day in European High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035
• Scenario B: FRUGAL AND LOCAL - A Day in European Localized Food Sector Driven by Community Values in 2035
• Scenario C: COST AND CONTROL - A Day in European Decayed Food Ecosystem Focused on Industrial Efficiency in 2035
• Scenario D: HIGHS AND LOWS - A Day in European Unequal High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035.
We conclude the paper by reflecting on the scenarios and their implications to decision-makers today.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated.