Science, technology and innovation (STI) policy faces growing challenges in addressing normative and ethical considerations. This paper explores how scenario work can offer a safe discursive space for stakeholders to explore future developments, to combine value-driven and normative perspectives, and to distil recommendations for STI policy. In climate change mitigation and adaptation, such scenario processes make it possible to explore value-driven perspectives on very controversial topics, including radical societal change and geoengineering, without forcing participants to prioritise or vote for 'the best' path for action.
The paper draws on the deep dive 'Climate Change, Research and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering', carried out by an expert group within the Foresight on Demand project 'Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe' for the European Commission. Four scenarios for 2040 were constructed to explore what kind of radically new research and innovation (R&I) activities could be developed in the second half of Horizon Europe. The process gave attention to novel technologies and practices, and also to ways of overcoming existing techno-institutional lock-ins and of phasing out or scaling down unhelpful practices. The review of the scenarios brought forward governance challenges alongside diverse values-based normative reflections (e.g. the ethics of non-action versus risky experimentation). Considerations of European Commission staff were taken into account during the process, which can ease the uptake of the findings in policy-making.
The study on which this paper is based was financed by the European Commission, DG Research and Innovation (Unit G1, Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service), through the Foresight on Demand framework contract. The views presented are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.
