This external scientific report is the final deliverable of a Foresight on Demand pilot that explored how multi-agency foresight, grounded in a One Health perspective, can strengthen the EU's capacity for anticipatory governance. Led by EFSA, the work was carried out with members of the EU-ANSA Futures Cluster, ECHA, Frontex and the Joint Research Centre, and combined horizon scanning, scenario development, participatory workshops, surveys and interviews.

The report first scopes the policy context and the One Health themes relevant to EU agencies, and analyses over 1,100 factors of change identified through AI-assisted horizon scanning. It then presents five scenarios for 2035, complemented by AI-assisted scenarios: Health Transformation after Wake-up Call; Better safe than sorry: Nature-Smart Europe in the Age of Prevention; One Health Governance in a Digitalised, Climate-Challenged Europe; Nationalism and egocentrism in Europe; and Keep it private! Building on a workshop with EU agency representatives in Lisbon in November 2025, it sets out four strategic areas for collaboration and four proposals for multi-agency foresight, on future risk modelling and digital twins, equitable and just health systems in 2035, One Health governance and data integration, and the melting of the Arctic and its implications for One Health.

Across the scenarios, technology is not the main determinant of resilience; data governance, trust and coordination are. The report proposes an adaptive, modular approach in which agencies lead and co-produce foresight modules, with the EU-ANSA Futures Cluster acting as curator of a foresight portfolio. It closes with 12 cross-cutting recommendations, including a shared horizon-scanning module, foresight cycles aligned with Commission and agency planning, the systematic integration of equity and social determinants, and the use of AI as an assistive layer rather than a substitute for human sense-making.

Könnölä, T., Ferrari, A., Giesecke, S., Cuhls, K., & Banchs-Piqué, M. (2026). Multi-agency foresight with One Health approach. Deliverable 5: Final report (EFSA Supporting Publication 2026:EN-10045). European Food Safety Authority. https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2026.EN-10045 

Cross-border threats and systemic risks at the intersection of human, animal and environmental health increasingly interact and amplify each other, driven by climate change, environmental degradation, technological transformation and geopolitical uncertainty. No single EU agency can anticipate such dynamics alone. Led by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), this Foresight on Demand project piloted a multi-agency foresight process with a One Health approach for the EU-ANSA Futures Cluster, in close interaction with the European Union Drugs Agency (EUDA), ECHA, Frontex and the Joint Research Centre. The work was carried out under the Foresight on Demand framework contract of DG Research and Innovation by a team from the Insight Foresight Institute, AIT, Fraunhofer IS and VTT.

The process moved from scoping and shared framing to AI-assisted horizon scanning, which yielded over 1,100 factors of change (trends, weak signals and wild cards) across PESTEL categories, clustered into themes for scenario work. Scenario workshops and AI-assisted morphological scenario building produced a set of scenarios for 2035, ranging from 'Better safe than sorry: Nature-Smart Europe in the Age of Prevention' to 'Nationalism and egocentrism in Europe'. At a sense-making workshop in Lisbon in November 2025, representatives of EU agencies developed shared 2035 visions for four strategic areas and stress-tested them against contrasting scenarios: future risk modelling and digital twins; health, equity and demographics; security, resilience, climate crisis and public engagement; and One Health governance and data use.

The work shows that the main bottlenecks are institutional rather than methodological: fragmented data governance, misaligned mandates and planning cycles, uneven capacity and, above all, trust and legitimacy. The same technologies can enable prevention and coordination or intensify surveillance and inequity, depending on governance. The project therefore proposes an adaptive, modular approach in which agencies lead and co-produce joint foresight modules, such as shared horizon scanning, scenario building and roadmapping, so that multi-agency foresight becomes a standing capability rather than a one-off exercise.

Final report (EFSA Supporting Publications, 2026): https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2026.EN-10045