This conference presentation, given in Track 1 (Collective Intelligence for R&I Policy Making) of the Futures4Europe Conference 2025 in Vienna, draws on a two-day Eye of Europe stakeholder workshop held in Madrid in April 2025. The EU has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, and the Clean Industrial Deal positions it as a leader in sustainable industry. Scenario and roadmapping work can help stakeholders identify research and innovation (R&I) needs and opportunities. Turbulent geopolitics, however, require thematic work to rely on global context scenarios and a multi-level perspective.
The presentation addresses two questions. The first is methodological and concerns how a multi-level perspective with context scenarios can be incorporated in thematic foresight work. The second is thematic and concerns how the EU could pursue a resilient and competitive path to industrial decarbonisation amid global uncertainties.
The workshop combined a background paper, three facilitators and participants from policy, industry and academia. On the first day, three global context scenarios for 2040 (Genuine Collaboration, Limited Cooperation and Open Hostility) were described along four dimensions, namely governance, production and innovation systems, trade, and security and defence. Each was translated into a European scenario of a dynamic, resilient and decarbonised EU ('Thriving Europe', 'Europe, Respected Partner' and 'Fortress Europe'), which groups then explored in three thematic areas: energy security and supply, critical raw materials, and manufacturing in hard-to-abate sectors (e.g. steel, cement and chemicals). On the second day, the groups roadmapped R&I needs (demand) and opportunities (offer) from the present to 2030 and 2040 and beyond, across societal drivers and barriers, policy and governance, market deployment of industry applications, and science and technology.
The lessons concern both methods. Context scenarios need to be specific about the context. They facilitate multi-level analysis, and comparing scenarios, or working on several of them at the same time, supports the thematic discussions, preferably with participants of diverse backgrounds and competences. Roadmapping, in turn, helps connect the work to the organisational challenges of the participants and benefits from participants with specific thematic and technical competences. The full workshop report is published on Futures4Europe as 'Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU'.
Reference
Könnölä, T., & Havas, A. (2025, May 15–16). Geopolitics of industrial decarbonisation: Global scenarios and R&I opportunities for Europe [Conference presentation]. Futures4Europe Conference 2025, Vienna, Austria. 

For more information: https://www.futures4europe.eu/post/eye-of-europe-conference-foresight-and-ri-wjyxd 

The fourth Mutual Learning Event of the 𝐄𝐲𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 project took place in beautiful Budapest, focusing on "𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠."

The event featured presentations on European and national foresight exercises, highlighting diverse practices in shaping long-term visions and setting strategic priorities. These insights fueled lively discussions during two interactive sessions.

Over twenty participants from diverse stakeholder groups joined the event held in Budapest, Hungary: Eye of Europe partner organizations, representatives from the European Commission, R&I funding agencies, representatives of governmental bodies. 

Presentations

• Opening and Introduction to the Eye of Europe project | Radu Gheorghiu, coordinator (UEFISCDI, Romania)
• Introduction to Forward-looking Activities and Policy Making | Attila Havas (CERS, Hungary)
• Introduction of the MLE4 context, objectives and agenda | Lenka Hebáková (TC Prague, Czechia)
• Foresight for European R&I Priorities | Nicola Francesco Dotti, EC’s DG for Research and Innovation: Common R&I Strategy & Foresight Service
• Building anticipatory governance as a core element of policymaking across OECD countries | Julia
  Staudt
• Malta: Foresight and Visioning in the R&I policy cycle | Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Insight Foresight
  Institute
• UK: Discussing strategies for positioning a country or region as a leader in specific R&I domains | Luke Georghiou, University of Manchester
• Romania: Digital Transformation in the Romanian Public Administration: Scenarios and Associated
  Digital Roles for Civil Servants | Bianca Dragomir, Institutul de Prospectiva
• Hungary: The Priorities and the Methodology of the Programme Strategy | Péter Racskó, NRDI
  Office
  

This event is the fourth in a series of five MLEs planned in the project; the following event will be held in Chișinău, Moldova. All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and (participatory as well as expert based) foresight activities.

The fourth Mutual Learning Event addressed topic of long-term visioning and priority-setting. The two-day foresight event gathered experts, policymakers and foresight practitioners to discuss among others participatory foresight practices, and the integration of foresight into policymaking. Presentations emphasized the importance of preparedness, stakeholder engagement, and the need for quality standards in foresight methodologies. Discussions highlighted challenges in mainstreaming foresight, including institutional commitment, regional disparities, and balancing expert input with participatory inclusiveness. Key takeaways included the need for clearer principles, stronger political support, and context-specific tools. Looking ahead, upcoming events in Romania, Moldova will serve to consolidate learnings and strengthen the foresight community’s role in shaping resilient, future-ready policies.