This sixth Eye of Europe Foresight Starter Video focuses on scenario thinking and how scenarios can help facilitate strategic conversations.
The accessible 8-minute video provides viewers with a brief introduction to some of the key figures in the history of scenario planning from Hermann Kahn's scenarios for thermonuclear war to Pierre Wack's development of the Shell scenarios. The video thus provides helpful lessons for viewers, who may have heard about scenarios many times, but who are not familiar with the history of the method, nor its use as a systematic foresight and futures studies method.
The video also exemplifies how scenarios can provide a simple framework for enabling strategic considerations with real-life decision-making implications. This is done through discussing the strategic question of whether or not to pursue advanced education, taking into consideration the focal issue of futures of AI in Research. The question is addressed in the video with the use of Jim Dator's four scenario archetypes: Growth, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation.
The example makes it easy for viewers to understand how scenarios can help facilitate thoughtful considerations around challenging and uncertain issues, hopefully enabling their interest in applying scenario thinking also for themselves and in their own work.
