The briefing paper explores how strategic foresight can support leaders facing growing uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation, technological change and increasingly interconnected systems. It argues that foresight is most valuable when it strengthens decision-making in the present, helping leaders test assumptions, interpret signals, understand interdependencies and act before certainty is available.
The paper is structured around eight critical questions concerning systemic shocks, technological sovereignty, hybrid conflict, education and human capabilities in an AI-rich world, demographic change, the boundaries of AI delegation, AI as a source of meaning and authority, and the role of data and models in judgement.
It then links these challenges to a set of practical foresight approaches, including scenario planning, horizon scanning, systems mapping, assumption testing, stress testing, strategic optionality, stakeholder and narrative analysis, and decision review and governance design.
A recurring theme is the importance of preserving human judgement, responsibility and accountability as AI and quantitative tools become more capable. The paper also stresses that foresight has greater impact when it is integrated into strategy, governance, budgeting, risk management and policy design rather than remaining confined to reports and workshops.