La Palma Research Centre hosted the Foresight Methodology Workshop of the Horizon 2020 project Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis (MICA) in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria on 10–11 May 2017. The project was concerned with intelligence on mineral raw materials, and the workshop looked at how foresight methods could serve that purpose. My contribution drew on a set of international foresight exercises carried out over the previous decade, ranging from regional foresight in a Chilean mining region to European horizon scanning and global roadmapping in manufacturing (Könnölä, 2017). This post revisits the presentation and its four key messages: foresight serves the whole policy cycle, foresight designs are always customised, foresight tools are never the first step, and the value of foresight depends on engaging the 'client'. The slides are attached.

1. Foresight for the whole policy cycle

Foresight is often associated with the early stages of policy-making, when agendas are set and long-term visions are articulated. Its contribution, however, extends across the whole policy cycle. In agenda setting, foresight offers visions, a better understanding of change and greater legitimacy and transparency in the choice of priorities. In policy definition, it generates policy options and new ideas and builds ownership among those who will implement them. Ex-ante impact assessment benefits from the exploration of impacts under alternative futures, while implementation can draw on new policy configurations and a more responsive system. Evaluation, in turn, gains from prospective considerations, closing a learning loop that feeds the next round of agenda setting (Könnölä, 2017).

Underlying this is a view of the future as open. The 'futures cone' distinguishes between possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures, with business as usual forming only a narrow strand within a much wider space of potential developments (Voros, 2003). Foresight exercises differ in which part of the cone they address. Some concentrate on probable developments to support planning, others explore the plausible and the possible to test strategies against surprise, and many seek to articulate preferable futures that stakeholders are willing to work towards.

The regional foresight programme in Antofagasta, Chile, illustrated these contributions in a setting close to the interests of the raw materials community. Between 2011 and 2013, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland cooperated with the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) to improve the human capacities of CICITEM as a facilitator of regional innovation, especially in knowledge and technology management. The cooperation pursued capacity building in institutional leadership, knowledge management, innovation culture and innovation capabilities; self-sustained innovation capacity at CICITEM; and the capability to create a strategic vision for regional innovation and to facilitate joint innovation activities in the mining cluster (Dufva et al., 2016). Water, under pressure from climate change and mining, became the focus of the foresight pilot.

The contributions of the exercise can be read at four levels (Dufva et al., 2015). At the landscape level, participants gained a better understanding of global developments and networks and of Antofagasta's position in the global system, together with skills to scan and project these developments and engagement with international stakeholders. At the innovation-system level, the exercise identified key barriers and drivers in the regional system and its water-related sub-systems, actions to overcome the barriers and a vision of a desired future, and it brought stakeholders from different sectors together for the first time. At the organisational level, it produced a roadmap for research related to water and mining, strengthened the foresight culture and capability of CICITEM and improved its contacts and status. At the individual level, participants improved their understanding of the regional context and of futures thinking and learnt to conduct foresight through training and hands-on engagement in the design and management of the exercise. VTT's own innovation programme on the mineral economy pointed in a similar direction, combining competences such as hydrometallurgy, powder metallurgy and life cycle assessment with business models and foresight, and working towards a circular mineral economy based on valuable element recovery, residue utilisation, substitution of critical raw materials, remanufacturing, reuse and recycling (Könnölä, 2017).

2. Foresight designs are always customised

There is no single foresight method and no standard design. In the mapping of regional foresight exercises presented in the talk, literature review, scenarios, expert panels, futures workshops, brainstorming and SWOT analysis were the most frequently used methods, followed by questionnaires and surveys, trend extrapolation, interviews, environmental scanning, Delphi and megatrend analysis, while backcasting, stakeholder mapping, key technologies, structural analysis and technology roadmapping were used less often (Könnölä, 2017). Methods can be positioned along several dimensions: quantitative and qualitative, face-to-face and online, intuitive and rational, subjective and objective, creative and evidence-based. Good designs tend to combine methods across these dimensions rather than settle at one end of each.

Much of the value lies in integration. A typical integrated process begins with the search for signals and moves on to creating, curating and evaluating drivers. The drivers are clustered and structured into scenarios, from which success scenarios are defined. Roadmaps then reorganise the drivers, create solutions and evaluate them against the scenarios before the most promising ones are selected, after which the process turns to analysing future markets, identifying partners and defining actions (Könnölä, 2017). Three cases from the talk show how such combinations are tailored to purpose.

The first, 'Facing the Future', was a horizon scanning exercise carried out in 2009 by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) (Boden et al., 2010). Horizon scanning was organised around four interlinked activities: scoping, scanning, synthesising and coordinating. BEPA and JRC-IPTS selected six areas of analysis in February; forward-looking reports were reviewed and synthesised to identify issues in March; an online survey of 270 experts assessed the issues in April; multi-criteria analyses of the survey results followed in May; an expert workshop with 19 experts and 22 policy-makers combined the issues in June; and the final report was compiled by November. The multi-criteria analysis used RPM Screening (Könnölä et al., 2007) to compare issues under alternative preference structures. A mean-oriented analysis ranked relevance above novelty and probability, a rare-event-oriented analysis gave priority to inverse probability, and a variance-oriented analysis highlighted issues on which expert views diverged. Issues that scored well independently of the criteria preferences could thus be distinguished from those whose position depended on how the criteria were weighted, which made the prioritisation transparent and traceable (Könnölä et al., 2012).

The second case was a Web 2.0 foresight platform set up by JRC-IPTS for the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) (Haegeman et al., 2012). After preparation and a pilot, the platform opened a first phase for collecting ideas and a second phase for assessing them. Once the platform closed, a first report on the ideas was presented to the EIT Governing Board, and a background document prepared the ground for a workshop with selected experts and Board members, which led to the final report. The online and face-to-face stages were designed to complement each other, so that broad participation could be combined with focused deliberation among decision-makers.

The third case, the IMS2020 project on intelligent manufacturing systems, showed the particular challenges of global foresight (Cagnin & Könnölä, 2014). The process combined mapping, two online surveys, workshops on key area topics (KAT) and interviews. Drivers were grouped under policy and governance (e.g. aligned and coordinated policy and regulation, global multi-level collaboration, collective values and behaviours), industrial and international R&D cooperation (e.g. breakthrough technologies, cooperation across value chains, new markets, standardisation and knowledge management) and knowledge and society (e.g. education, competences and skills, energy, natural resources and environmental footprint). Scenario design options ranged from two-axis matrices to morphological combinations of factors. The IMS2020 scenarios were built on a policy and governance axis and an international industrial R&D axis, nested with knowledge society and environmental sustainability dimensions, and four snapshots were positioned within this space. The resulting vision called for rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing leading to customised and 'eternal' life-cycle solutions, for highly flexible and self-organising value chains, and for sustainable manufacturing made possible by cultural change among individuals and corporations and by a regulatory framework co-designed by governments, industries and societies. The final roadmap linked research and technological development topics, research actions and their expected impacts, and KAT visions and objectives to the IMS2020 vision over horizons of one to three, three to seven, seven to ten and ten to fifteen years.

3. Foresight tools are never the first step

A wide range of tools is available to support foresight, many of them digital. Technology maps visualise technology and patent landscapes at different levels of detail, helping clients to define strategic objectives, explore their position and follow innovation dynamics; at the Insight Foresight Institute these were developed in partnership with Tecmine. Online foresight platforms, developed with Orchidea, support structured engagement of stakeholders and experts through the submission, commenting and assessment of emerging issues, innovation ideas and challenges, with filtering and graphical presentation of results. RPM Screening, based on Robust Portfolio Modelling, allows interactive multi-criteria analysis of issues according to relevance, novelty, feasibility or other criteria (Könnölä et al., 2007, 2012). Online surveys run on commercial platforms make consultation user-friendly and efficient to manage, with flexible export of results (Könnölä, 2017).

None of these tools should be the starting point. They are always tailored to the needs of the client, and their value depends on the quality of the scoping, the questions asked and the people engaged. A technology map without a clear strategic question, or an online platform without a community willing to contribute, tends to produce data rather than insight. The choice of tools follows from the purpose of the exercise and from the policy or strategy process it is meant to inform.

4. Engaging the 'client'

The conclusions drew these experiences together. Complexity and uncertainty call for foresight and resilience. Different future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) systems are complementary, and their diversification strengthens the capacity to anticipate. Methods are best combined in a modular and responsive way, so that the design can adapt as the process unfolds. Close interaction with sponsors and clients is needed throughout, from scoping to the use of results, because foresight creates value only when its insights are taken up in decisions (Könnölä, 2017). For the raw materials community, these lessons suggest building foresight into the policy cycle, combining scanning, scenarios and roadmaps in designs tailored to the questions at hand, and engaging policy-makers, industry and researchers from the outset.

Access to the presentation: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158?utm_source=clipboard_share_button&utm_campaign=slideshare_make_sharing_viral_v2&utm_variation=control&utm_medium=share 

References

Boden, J. M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223

Cagnin, C., & Könnölä, T. (2014). Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems. Futures, 59, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.007

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2016). Building regional foresight capability in Antofagasta, Chile (EFP Brief No. 260). European Foresight Platform. https://if-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Building_Regional_Foresight_in_Antofagasta_Chile_EFP-Brief-No.260.pdf

Haegeman, K., Cagnin, C., Könnölä, T., & Collins, D. (2012). Web 2.0 foresight for innovation policy: A case of strategic agenda setting in European innovation. Innovation: Management, Policy & Practice, 14(3), 446–466. https://doi.org/10.5172/impp.2012.14.3.446

Könnölä, T. (2017, May 10–11). Foresight methods and practice: Lessons learned from international foresight exercises [Presentation slides]. Foresight Methodology Workshop, Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis project, Las Palmas, Spain. https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158

Könnölä, T., Brummer, V., & Salo, A. (2007). Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(5), 608–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.003

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021

Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379

This study examinated the medium-term time-horizon (3-8 years) of the emerging infectious diseases (EID) threat spectrum in a manner that draws in multiple streams of contemporary and relevant research into activities focused on the development of plausible scenarios and prevention and control policy options for future infectious disease mitigation. This project drew on expertise from the ECDC and a diverse network of specialists from public health systems, biomedical R&I fields, and infectious disease research to identify and address current gaps in the ECDC’s preparedness for future EID threats. This process used an array of foresight methods and activities to help build strategies to create a robust and resilient system for the detection, identification, and responsiveness to potential future EID events. This system also included capacity building for continuous future-oriented research and monitoring activities as part of an integrated foresight capacity for the ECDC.

In 2009 the Joint Research Centre's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) carried out the foresight study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges' for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The aim was to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response, as part of the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The study combined horizon scanning of 129 forward-looking reports in six areas, a wide online consultation, the prioritisation of issues with RPM Screening and a two-day sense-making workshop that brought together 19 experts from around the world and 22 officials from across the Commission's departments. Participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges and agreed on three overarching challenges for EU action: changing the ways in which essential natural resources are used, anticipating and adapting to societal changes, and more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources.

The final report fed into the strategy work of BEPA and the JRC and was referenced in the Commission's groundwork for the Innovation Union strategy.

This article discusses key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out by JRC-IPTS for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes that assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters, and the interpretation of the resulting clusters as a step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.

Issues drawn from published forward-looking reports were prioritised with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM), a multi-criteria method that combines several criteria into a shortlist that holds under every reasonable weighting and can also bring forward issues that divide opinion as well as wild cards. In a workshop, participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges, grouped them under global governance, natural capital, society and economy, and weighed them against three questions: is EU action urgent, can the EU realistically act, and would EU action have a major positive global impact? By the end of the workshop they had agreed on three overarching challenges.

Methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis support horizon scanning in prioritising, clustering and combining issues. They also provide traceability, which enhances the transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources when they were discussed inside the Commission.

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021 

This report presents the main conclusions of the study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out in 2009 by the Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. Its aim is to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response. The study fed into the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The methodology combined an extensive review of forward-looking studies, a wide online consultation on the identified issues and multi-criteria analysis with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) to prioritise them. In total, 129 forward-looking reports were reviewed across six areas: demography, migration and health; economy, trade and financial flows; environment, energy, climate change and agriculture; research, innovation and education; governance and social cohesion; and defence and security. The key issues were then presented and discussed in a workshop with selected experts and policymakers.

Based on the criteria of urgency, tractability and impact, the workshop identified three challenges with a global scope that require action at EU level: the need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used, the need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes, and the need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. The report sets out policy messages and opportunities for each challenge and highlights the need for building a foresight culture within EU policy-making.

Boden, M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223 

Supported by the European Union (EU), EIT Food is the world's largest food innovation community. Its mission is threefold: healthier lives through food, a net zero food system and a fair and resilient food system. Its Consumer Observatory is Europe's central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. The general and consumer-specific trends, wild cards and weak signals identified by the Observatory provide the basis for this scenario work.

The work continues the 2024 exercise on futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in 2035 in Europe, this time with emphasis on technological advances, specifically on consumer acceptance of processed and functional food and of alternative proteins. In 2025, Insight Foresight Institute engaged the EIT Food community and a broader set of food and foresight experts in three online workshops. The participants made sense of how societal and consumer trends could interrelate, explored alternative scenarios of food consumption by 2035 and reflected on their implications for today's agrifood ecosystem and policy.

Scenarios are not predictions of the likely future, but they depict possible futures, even less likely ones. The narratives are written in the present tense, as if we were already in 2035. Two dimensions structured the work and ensured that each scenario was truly different:

• Acceptance of alternative proteins, covering both traditional alternative proteins for European markets (e.g. tofu, seitan, tempeh and molluscs) and novel ones (e.g. mycoprotein, cultivated meat, precision fermentation and insects).

• Acceptance of processed and functional food, which may be unhealthy or healthy, even highly functional with health benefits and tailored to individual needs.

Crossing the two dimensions gives four scenarios:

• Scenario 1: NATURAL AND LOCAL – Low in processing, low in alternatives

• Scenario 2: WHOLE-FOOD MOSAIC – Low in processing, high in alternatives

• Scenario 3: HIGH-TECH SAVOUR – High in processing, high in alternatives

• Scenario 4: CONVENIENT AND AFFORDABLE – High in processing, low in alternatives

This report presents four scenarios on the futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in Europe in 2035, prepared for the EIT Food Consumer Observatory. It continues the 2024 scenario work, this time with emphasis on technological advances, specifically consumer acceptance of alternative proteins and of processed and functional food. Starting from the general and consumer trends, wild cards and weak signals identified by the Observatory, the EIT Food community and a broader set of food and foresight experts took part in three online workshops in autumn 2025.

Crossing the two dimensions gives four structurally different futures: Natural and Local (low in processing, low in alternatives), Whole-Food Mosaic (low in processing, high in alternatives), High-Tech Savour (high in processing, high in alternatives) and Convenient and Affordable (high in processing, low in alternatives). Each narrative is written in the present tense, as if already in 2035.

Threats, opportunities and stakeholder actions were then developed for each scenario and synthesised in ten cross-scenario areas, among them making healthy and sustainable food affordable for all, safeguarding farmers' futures in the transition, reframing 'processing for good' with scientific evidence, managing the energy and climate footprint of new food technologies, expanding protein diversification to aquaculture and coordinating multi-level governance through transition partnerships. The annexes publish the workshop agendas, the driving forces, the raw ideation per scenario and implication tables per stakeholder group.

A European alliance connecting research, strategic foresight and education for AI in sport. Coordinated by Collective Innovation AS under Erasmus+. See more at https://sf4sport.com/

What will artificial intelligence require of people working in sport over the next five to ten years? Which opportunities should education prepare them for, and which challenges need attention now?

SF4Sport brings these questions to clubs and federations, technology businesses, educators and policy stakeholders. Their experience informs a structured foresight exercise across performance, fan engagement and sport management.

The project connects that evidence with future scenarios, cluster roadmaps and practical education. The aim is to help students and professionals develop the capabilities needed for a changing sport sector.

1) Strategic Foresigt

Research and scenario development help the sport sector explore opportunities, uncertainties and future skills needs.
- 164 stakeholder interviews planned
- Three thematic research clusters
- Cluster roadmaps with a five to ten year horizon

2) Education and Practice

Research findings and roadmaps will inform learning for higher education, vocational training and sport professionals.
- Four student courses planned
- Three professional development courses planned
- Course pilots targeting more than 200 learners

3) European Collaboration

Universities, sport organisations, training providers and technology partners work together across national and disciplinary boundaries.
- 17 organisations across 12 countries
- Collaborative workshops and hackathons
- Public communication and knowledge sharing

Aiming to build on existing early warning mechanisms across the EU institutions, agencies and bodies, the ESPAS horizon scanning project has a two-fold goal. On the one hand, to establish a rolling process to produce reports that engage colleagues across the ESPAS institutions and bodies in a continuous, longer-term, cross-cutting reflection around emerging and potential future trends. On the other hand, to create an EU community of practitioners and experts (‘future scanners’) able to identify and inform about emerging signals of change.


This is the 11th report from the ES PAS horizon scanning process which looks at “signals of change” - emerging trends and
issues – that appear to be marginal today but could become important for the EU in the future. From the 13 signals of
change presented below, three emerging issues were perceived as potentially most impactful by policymakers: Copyright self, Strategic institutional ignorance and Weponisation of visual data.

What if you could visit the future before it happens?

The Museum of Futures is an experiential foresight tool developed by HorizonX to help people step beyond the assumptions of today and explore multiple possible futures.

Rather than predicting what the future will look like, the Museum invites visitors to explore imagined artefacts from different possible futures. Each exhibit offers a glimpse into a world that could emerge and encourages visitors to ask:

What had to change for this artefact to exist? What signals of this future can we already observe today? What new needs, behaviours and challenges could emerge? And what other futures might be possible?

The Museum consists of 10 thematic halls covering Work & Skills, Education, Economy & Finance, Climate, Technology, Security, Governance, Urban Futures, Health and Energy.

Why we created it

Foresight can be challenging for people who are unfamiliar with futures thinking. Participants often remain anchored in today's realities, existing assumptions and linear projections.

The Museum was created to make futures exploration more immersive, accessible and provocative.

Instead of beginning with frameworks and terminology, participants first encounter possible futures through artefacts, stories and questions. These experiences can then become a starting point for deeper conversations about signals, emerging change, trends, uncertainties and alternative scenarios.

How it can be used

The Museum can support different stages of a foresight process, including:

Futures literacy: introducing futures thinking in an accessible and experiential way.
Horizon scanning: connecting fictional artefacts with signals, emerging issues and trends visible today.
Challenging assumptions: helping participants move beyond dominant narratives and linear expectations.
Scenario exploration: expanding the range of possibilities considered before or during scenario development.
Strategic dialogue: exploring the implications of different futures for organisations, industries and society.
Creativity and engagement: creating a shared experience that stimulates curiosity and discussion among diverse stakeholders.

The Museum can be used independently or integrated into workshops, strategy processes, learning programmes and facilitated foresight sessions.

There is no single future. The Museum of Futures is an invitation to explore many of them and to reflect on the choices we make today.

Explore the Museum:
museum.horizonx.eu

Poster for the conference

Privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) enable data sharing and collaboration in the digital space in a way that respects privacy, ensuring that users have confidence that their data is protected. However, PETs can also be used to hide traces of criminal activities, most of which today are carried out via, or have some link to, digital communications technology. For this reason, lawful access to electronic evidence has become one of the most critical issues for European law enforcement, as it seeks to ensure safety and security while balancing this with the fundamental right to privacy.

This report presents the results of a joint horizon scanning exercise carried out by the EU Policy Lab at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), and Europol, the EU law enforcement cooperation agency. It contributes to broader JRC efforts to support the European Commission’s political priority, the ‘New Era for European Defence and Security’, by anticipating future technological developments. The aim of the exercise was to assess emerging PETs that could help or, conversely, hinder the future work of European law enforcement. The report underscores the importance of several PETs that experts deem crucial for this purpose.

These technologies have the potential to be either leveraged by law enforcement to enhance their operations or be exploited by criminals, depending on how they are developed and used in the future. The report also examines related complex regulatory frameworks and contextual factors that influence the development and deployment of these technologies. In light of the development of new encryption methods and other related enabling technologies such as artificial intelligence, this report also discusses new ways for law enforcement agencies to securely exchange information and integrate these technologies in the future activities.

The Futures Wheel is a participatory method to explore possible future direct implications and knock-on effects of a chosen change factor. This booklet presents a basic structure for a Futures Wheel workshop, which can be further tailored to specific needs. 

The Futures Wheel exploration starts with imagine a future where a selected change factor has become a reality. The next step is to describe potential direct implications of this development, followed by knock-on effects resulting from the direct implications. The workshop ends with identifying, for example, emerging themes, risks, opportunities, or other aspects for further reflection or analysis.

Explore the Futures Wheel workshop and download materials for your workshop here. 

The briefing paper explores how strategic foresight can support leaders facing growing uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation, technological change and increasingly interconnected systems. It argues that foresight is most valuable when it strengthens decision-making in the present, helping leaders test assumptions, interpret signals, understand interdependencies and act before certainty is available.

The paper is structured around eight critical questions concerning systemic shocks, technological sovereignty, hybrid conflict, education and human capabilities in an AI-rich world, demographic change, the boundaries of AI delegation, AI as a source of meaning and authority, and the role of data and models in judgement.

It then links these challenges to a set of practical foresight approaches, including scenario planning, horizon scanning, systems mapping, assumption testing, stress testing, strategic optionality, stakeholder and narrative analysis, and decision review and governance design.

A recurring theme is the importance of preserving human judgement, responsibility and accountability as AI and quantitative tools become more capable. The paper also stresses that foresight has greater impact when it is integrated into strategy, governance, budgeting, risk management and policy design rather than remaining confined to reports and workshops.

🔍 Read the full briefing paper 

New and emerging plant pests can undermine EU food security and farm/forestry incomes through yield losses, trade disruption and costly control measures, while also causing major environmental impacts through biodiversity loss, landscape change and increased pressure to use pesticides.  

Using a comprehensive foresight methodology, this study examines how global trade and tourism, climate change and agricultural systems contribute to the introduction and spread of new and emerging plant pests, assesses current and future pest risks, as well as scientific and technological options for their prevention, detection, and management, and reviews existing EU mechanisms.  

The study develops four scenarios up to 2050 to explore how key uncertainties may shape pest risks and system responses. Based on these insights, it identifies policy options to strengthen prevention, preparedness, and response capacities, supporting future EU policymaking.

This foresight study was conducted by Technopolis Group with experts from the Julius Kühn-Institute for the European Parliament's Panel for the Future of Science and Technology and commissioned by Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) of the European Parliamentary Research Service. 

The report is published on the website of the European Parliament: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2026)788146.

What will it mean to be a researcher in 2040 — and who will decide?
As part of the foresight study The Futures of Researchers' Careers: What Challenges for EU Policy?, funded by DG RTD, set of scenarios was developed to explore how research work in Europe could evolve over the next fifteen years. This summary presents the scenario component of the study: the world research is likely to operate in, and an aspirational alternative to it.

The context: Knowledge in Society 2040
By 2040, at global level research runs on a powerful, ever-present AI layer — an "intelligence infrastructure" that learns from research, industry and society and shapes how knowledge is created, shared and used. It drives three linked shifts: research speeds up as AI opens access to almost all human knowledge and shortens the path from idea to market; power concentrates, as a few "Super Big Tech" actors control the key AI platforms and states compete for strategic advantage; and contestation grows, as trust erodes under a flood of AI-generated output and the gap widens between those AI strengthens and those it leaves behind.

Left on this trajectory, and with current policy lagging behind, research careers come under pressure: a workforce split into tiers with no bridge between them, the value of public research captured by the owners of AI platforms, AI deciding what becomes visible and fundable, and slow recognition of hands-on empirical work and the new roles emerging around AI.

The response: Living Knowledge 2040
Living Knowledge 2040 is the study's aspirational alternative. It assumes the same dynamics as the context scenario — acceleration, concentration and contestation — but channels them toward public value. It is built on four layers:

The core — a Glass Engine, advanced AI that Europe builds and runs as civic infrastructure: transparent, publicly governed, auditable and contestable; and a Commons Authority that keeps it and the wider knowledge ecology in the public interest.
A trustworthy, plural knowledge ecology — where empirical and synthetic knowledge are equally valued, credibility rests on traceability rather than the journal a work appears in, dissenting views are actively surfaced, and collective and once-invisible work is recognised.
New forms of operating — from human–AI swarms and public "Action-Networks" to quest-based research, automated public research infrastructures, and AI-powered entrepreneurship — with careers moving fluidly among them.
An explicit ethos — wellbeing, collective work, public value, openness, meaning and full expression as the values the system is built to serve.

***

How the scenarios were developed

The scenarios are exploratory tools, not predictions: they set out plausible, internally consistent futures against which today's policies can be tested. Three were developed by the Institutul de Prospectiva team and progressively validated and enriched through consultation with the project's International Advisory Board, with one dedicated meeting per scenario type between May and June 2026. Together they trace a path from the world research will operate in, through the gaps in current policy, to an aspirational alternative.

The context scenario ("Knowledge in Society 2040") is global in scope and focuses on how knowledge — and its embodied forms of technologies, policies and norms — is produced, circulated and translated into societal impact. It was built by extrapolating a set of key drivers of change and exploring how they interact and amplify one another, with particular attention to the major actors — scientific communities, states, private-sector actors and society at large — and to the evolving interplay between their strategic, economic and normative interests.

The inertial scenario provides the bridge. It sets out thirteen current challenges facing Europe's research and innovation workforce, grouped into four categories: a fragmented research market; funding and employment structures; the training and socialisation model; and assessment and recognition systems. Each challenge is examined along three dimensions — its current state ("the Now"); its likely 2040 trajectory, assuming balanced optimism about current EU and national policies; and a "context push" that tests that trajectory against the global picture from the context scenario. This surfaces two kinds of tension: those where existing policies fall short of the projected dynamics, and entirely new ones that current frameworks do not yet recognise as problems and that would require genuinely new policy categories.

The aspirational scenario ("Living Knowledge 2040") was built in three steps, starting from the key tensions projected for 2040. These were put through a simplified Causal Layered Analysis that reopened some of the system's underlying premises — who owns the AI infrastructure, how contribution is recognised, how value is capitalised — producing twelve dimensions, each described as a current perspective and a potential shift by 2040. Clustering these dimensions gave the scenario its four-layer structure: the AI infrastructure and its public governance; the principles of the knowledge ecology around it; that ecology's forms of operating; and the overarching values of the ecosystem. Deliberately ambitious but not utopian, it assumes the same forces as the context scenario — pervasive AI, platformisation, concentration and contestation — but channels them toward public value.

Queen’s University Belfast is delighted to launch the recruitment process for 20 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) as part of its Foresighters Doctoral Programme. We offer an exceptional opportunity for future research leaders to access an innovative programme of doctoral training at one of the UK’s leading universities. and engage in high impact, interdisciplinary research with a wide range of non-academic partners.

Grounded in strategic foresight and systems thinking, the course equips participants with future-oriented tools such as:

01 Horizon Scanning
02 Future Wheels
03 Scenario Planning

Starting from a real strategic challenge, participants explore multiple possible futures, uncover emerging trends and systemic shifts, and translate insights into strategic perspectives for decision-making.

Learning objectives

01
Navigate uncertainty using foresight tools
Apply strategic foresight and futures thinking to explore multiple possible futures, move beyond linear forecasting and work confidently with uncertainty in real business and organizational contexts.

02
Anticipate risks and opportunities early
Identify emerging trends, weak signals and key drivers of change through horizon scanning and impact analysis, enabling earlier and better-informed strategic responses.

03
Think systemically about future challenges
Use systems thinking to understand the interconnectedness of global, organizational, and societal systems, and to assess how changes in one area influence others.

04
Make better long-term strategic decisions
Build and use future scenarios to test strategic options, support decision-making, and design resilient, flexible, and sustainable strategies aligned with long-term goals.

Course takeaways
By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

Develop and implement strategic foresight processes within their organizations.

Apply systems thinking to analyze complex challenges and design sustainable solutions.

Build and use future scenarios to guide informed decision-making.

Foster a culture of innovation and resilience, adaptable to emerging trends and disruptions.

Workshop overview 

HorizonX is an integrated consulting ecosystem, combining expertise in strategy, foresight, innovation and leadership. We bring together decades of execution excellence and forward-looking intelligence, helping organizations prepare for the future and accelerate transformation in a sustainable way.

From our hubs in Vienna, London, and Bucharest, we leverage the combined expertise of a multidisciplinary network operating in over 20 countries. With a legacy of over 25 years through our founding partners, we deliver complex, large-scale transformations across the EMEA region.

In the Foresight Department of Fraunhofer ISI, we gathered and synthesised 64 recent and openly available Technology Horizon Scans (2020-2025), and produced a taxonomy of active Horizon Scanners that produce these scans.

The results of this exercise contributed to the OECD working paper Building capacity in technology horizon scanning: A guide for policymakers, which has been recently published. This working paper examines how horizon scanning can help governments anticipate and respond to emerging and converging technologies. 

This project, commissioned by the European Commission's DG-RTD and implemented by a consortium led by DLR-PT, develops strategic foresight to support R&I policy across ten EU candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, North Macedonia, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Türkiye, and Ukraine. 

It explores how research and innovation systems may evolve across these ten EU candidate countries in the Western Balkans and Black Sea region, with the aim of informing EU, national, and regional policy choices under conditions of uncertainty. 

The project combines desk research, a structured STEEPV-based trend framework, expert survey work, scenario development, and country-level policy dialogues to identify the drivers, uncertainties, and strategic choices shaping future R&I trajectories. Its first evidence base mapped 60 trends and drew on 338 expert responses across the ten countries, highlighting a shared pattern of weak implementation capacity, unstable funding, underused EU opportunities, and persistent talent loss.

Building on this, the project develops four cross-regional scenarios and expert co-creation, then translates them into ten country policy memos and a comparative regional analysis. The result is a foresight-driven set of tangible policy recommendations on how enlargement countries can strengthen R&I capacity, improve alignment with the European Research Area and Horizon Europe.

"Linking Ukraine to the European Research Area" (LUKE) is a multilateral project aimed at strengthening the Ukrainian research and innovation system. It brings together 26 funding and research organisations from Europe and Ukraine, which are jointly developing and implementing a transnational call for R&I projects with Ukrainian participation. The thematic priorities are developed on the basis of Delphi surveys, citizen visioning workshops and strategic foresight. At the same time, the "Knowledge Hub" is creating a platform for targeted competence building, for example in the divisions of research management, technology transfer, innovation policy and science communication.

In addition, LUKE contributes to the strategic design of EU-Ukraine cooperation in the field of research and innovation. The project will conclude with a high-level conference to discuss future scenarios for the Ukrainian R&I system in the European context.

We help leaders future-proof their business: future-fit strategies, new fields of innovation, navigating uncertainty.

This technology foresight brief documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV.

The workshop, held online on 12 November 2025, focused on the identification, evaluation, and prioritisation of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) in the field of ocean observation. Signals were collected through expert inputs, literature review, and text and data mining of patents, scientific publications, and EU-funded research and innovation projects.

These signals were subsequently assessed by a multidisciplinary group of experts, leading to the prioritisation of eight key observation technologies: autonomous eDNA and eRNA samplers; lab-on-chip systems; cost-effective and modular sensors; data fusion between Earth observation and in-situ measurements; distributed acoustic sensing; AI-enhanced passive acoustic sensing; deep learning-enabled imaging; and flow cytometry and particle-based high-frequency observations of plankton.

In addition, four enabling technological and innovation fields were identified as critical for advancing ocean observation capabilities: expanding in-situ observation infrastructures; data interoperability and integration; autonomous surface and underwater vehicles; and artificial intelligence. The brief also highlights a range of contextual factors shaping the development and uptake of ocean observation technologies across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political and regulatory dimensions. These include challenges related to data standards and taxonomic expertise, tensions between budget constraints and increasing monitoring demands, the need for real-time detection in the face of accelerating environmental change, and geopolitical dynamics influencing international cooperation and the governance of dual-use technologies. 

The European Union Drugs Agency’s (EUDA) project “Synthetic Drugs 2050” addressed the growing uncertainty surrounding the future availability, spread, and use of synthetic drugs in Europe up to 2050. Synthetic drugs represent a rapidly evolving and systemic challenge for Europe, affecting public health, security, social cohesion, productivity, and overall wellbeing. Accelerated technological change, globalised supply chains, digitalisation, and increasingly blurred boundaries between legal, illegal, controlled, and uncontrolled substances further amplify the complexity of this issue.

The project applied a participatory strategic foresight approach to explore possible futures of synthetic drugs in Europe, moving beyond short-term monitoring and reactive policy responses. By systematically analysing global and regional drivers of change, emerging trends, weak signals, and deep uncertainties, the project built a shared understanding of how synthetic drugs markets, uses, and impacts may evolve in the medium- and long-term.

Through horizon scanning, trend analysis, scenario building, and sense-making activities, Synthetic Drugs 2050 supports EU-level and national stakeholders in anticipating risks, identifying opportunities, and strengthening policy resilience. The project explicitly linked foresight insights to strategic reflection, policy options, and research priorities, while embedding capacity-building components to enhance futures literacy and long-term preparedness within the EU drug policy ecosystem.

Objectives

The Synthetic Drugs 2050 project encompassed:

• A comprehensive, methodologically robust foresight study on the future availability and use of synthetic drugs in Europe up to 2050, exploring systemic drivers, uncertainties, and disruptive developments across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal, and ethical dimensions.
• Development of multiple plausible future scenarios describing how synthetic drugs diffusion in Europe could evolve by 2050, challenging prevailing assumptions and highlighting non-obvious risks and opportunities.
• Mapping of first-, second-, and third-order implications of synthetic drugs diffusion across Europe, identifying cause–effect pathways, time-bound consequences, and cross-sectoral impacts on health, public safety, governance, and society.
• Support for strategic preparedness and policy resilience by co-developing policy responses, strategic options, and research and innovation priorities at EU and national levels.
• Further development of strengthened foresight capacity and futures literacy within EUDA and its stakeholder community through learning-by-doing, participatory engagement, and the development of reusable foresight tools and frameworks.

Outputs

• Horizon scanning and trend analysis reports
• A set of four future scenarios for synthetic drugs in Europe by 2050
• A mapped system of time-bound implications and cause–effect pathways
• Policy responses and strategic recommendations
• A foresight manual and horizon scanning framework for future use

Find more information here: https://www.euda.europa.eu/index_en

Preparing for the future starts with recognizing small, often-overlooked signals that have the potential to spark major change. This half-day virtual program will delve into what the future holds through the lens of hand-picked experts adept at separating signals from the noise on the internet.

The Agenda: February 12, 2026 | 04:00 PM - 08:30 PM CET

The Great Beauty Blur
Presenter: Olivia Houghton, Insights and Engagement Director, The Future Laboratory

The Dichotomies: Brand Trends 2026
Presenter: Nick Vaus, Co-Founder + Managing Partner, Free The Birds

Inside China Beauty: The Trends Driving the Market
Presenter: Elisa Harca, Co-Founder, Red Ant Asia

The Face of the Future: A Journey Into Beauty in 2036
Presenter: Alex Bee, Project Director, Foresight and Strategy, Space Doctors

LIVE - Round Table Discussion + Q&A
From Vanity to Vibe: How Experience is Rewriting Beauty
Presenter: Neda Daneshzadeh Whitney, President + Managing Director, MATTE Projects

Demographics. Culture. Emotion.
Presenter: lynn casey, Founder + CEO, Shine Scout

Future Forward: What Matters and What’s Next
Presenter: Kelly Kovack, Founder + CEO, BeautyMatter

The future of the European science system fundamentally depends on its researchers, and it is therefore essential to continue fostering attractive and sustainable research careers. Yet, a wide range of challenges is currently shaping both researchers’ professional trajectories and the broader EU research and innovation ecosystem.

Against this backdrop, DG Research & Innovation commissioned the Foresight On Demand team to conduct a study with the following objectives:

• Identify long term trends and disruptions affecting researchers’ careers in Europe.
• Develop plausible scenarios (to 2040) for the evolution of the EU’s researcher workforce.
• Propose policy pathways and identify challenges. The study will outline potential EU level policy approaches and governance reforms that could generate added value through coordinated action.

By informing policymaking, the study’s findings will aim to support greater coordination among Member States and strengthen the effectiveness of governance structures, funding mechanisms, and frameworks for research career development across Europe.

Preamble
Across Europe, the use of foresight for Research and Innovation (R&I) policy is growing, but unevenly. In many places, it still sits at the margins of policymaking, and its full potential—to inspire broader societal change—is not yet realised.

The European R&I foresight community, made up of practitioners, policymakers, researchers, and future-oriented thinkers, is
becoming stronger and more connected. The Eye of Europe project, supported by the European Commission, helps this
community grow through the online hub futures4europe.eu, as well as workshops, conferences and shared learning spaces.

This manifesto stems from a “foresight on foresight” workshop held in Mamaia, Romania (18–19 September 2025), coordinated by UEFISCDI and the Austrian Institute of Technology. 30 foresight practitioners and R&I policy experts from across Europe gathered to imagine how foresight could better support R&I policy and practice. Furthermore, these contents have also been discussed and enriched during Eye of Europe’s final mutual learning event held in Chișinău, Moldova (23–24 October 2025).

This manifesto recognises the growing importance of foresight—not only within European R&I systems but also at the interface between R&I and society—repositioning the field as a driver of inspiration and renewal in shaping Europe’s futures.

Foresight as a Key Social Infrastructure for Europe
Vision 2030 in a nutshell

Research and Innovation (R&I) foresight is a shared space of imagination and inquiry, enabling Europe to live creatively with emergence and diversity. Beyond agenda-setting, it cultivates futures literacy across science, policy, and society — expanding our capacity to sense, interpret, and engage with novelty.

Embracing the open and interdependent nature of the world, foresight complements evidence with creativity and plural ways of knowing. It guides Europe’s research and innovation ecosystems to act with openness, responsibility, and imagination — co-creating sustainable and just futures as a shared public good.

🔵 EXTENDED ROLE OF R&I FORESIGHT
In 2030 R&I foresight enables boundary spanning, connecting sectoral policies, disciplines, and perspectives. Its value lies not only in generating agendas or scenarios, but in reshaping worldviews, reframing challenges, cultivating agency, enabling collective reflection, and inspiring transformative action

🔵 OPEN AND INCLUSIVE SPACES
In 2030 foresight thrives on openness, diversity, and empathy. It creates spaces where people engage not only as experts or institutional actors, but as whole humans— bringing values, worldviews, emotions, and lived experiences into the co-creation of futures.
Trust grows from transparency, fairness, and shared ownership of both processes and outcomes. While AI expands access to knowledge, human judgment, engagement creativity, and responsibility remain essential.

🔵 FUTURES LITERACY AS A FOUNDATIONAL CAPACITY
Futures literacy becomes both a foundation and a legacy of R&I foresight. It strengthens the collective ability to recognise assumptions, navigate uncertainty, and act with intention amid complexity.
Foresight processes evolve into open spaces for learning and experimentation, cultivating anticipatory competence among experts, policymakers, and citizens. Through its practices and communication, R&I foresight contributes to a societal diffusion of futures thinking, enhancing collective intelligence and agency.

🔵 A MATURE COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE
Foresight gains professional depth through dedicated academic programmes and practitioner networks. A wide variety of organisations embed foresight cultures that encourage reflection, experimentation, and communication. Shared infrastructures such as futures4europe.eu evolve into open, dynamic platforms for collaboration, knowledge exchange, and innovation in foresight.

Download the document at the top of the page to read the full version.

Future Impacts designs and implements foresight processes around questions on the
future of organisations and corporations. We carry out foresight projects to identify options
for future-oriented actions today. For this, we use or combine trend analysis, scenarios
and Delphi surveys, among other approaches. Aside from our focus on the development
and implementation of individualised foresight games, we also focus on foresight capacity
building. We support our clients to expand their foresight capabilities and skills through
training, toolkits and coaching.

We are a futures and forecasting consultancy, composed of data, digital and policy experts. We are trusted and approved suppliers to both the public and private sector.

The Foresight Centre is a think tank at the Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu) that analyses long-term developments in society and identifies emerging trends and potential development pathways. By exploring a range of possible futures, the Centre creates alternative scenarios to support evidence-based policymaking and strategic planning. Its research covers key areas that shape Estonia’s future, including education, healthcare, the economy, labour markets, social welfare, technology, and the environment. Through its analyses, the Foresight Centre helps decision-makers anticipate change and prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead.

LISA Institute is an international education and consulting organization based in Spain, specialized in Intelligence Analysis, Strategic Foresight, Security, Defense, and Geopolitics.

Through a multidisciplinary team of active professionals—military officers, analysts, diplomats, cybersecurity experts, and intelligence practitioners—LISA Institute provides high-level training, applied research, and strategic consulting services to public institutions, private companies, and international organizations.

Its mission is to enhance resilience, decision-making, and strategic anticipation capabilities across society by combining academic rigor, practical expertise, and innovative methodologies.

LISA Institute collaborates with EU institutions, ministries, and multilateral organizations to design educational programs and foresight projects that strengthen collective security, democratic governance, and preparedness for future challenges.

More info: www.lisainstitute.com

This technology foresight brief documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, in the context of FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and break-through INNOVation) a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to support the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and other anticipatory methodologies.
The workshop, held online on 19 June 2025, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals related to emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) within human-like AI systems. Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects.
These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts, which led to the identification of twelve key topics: enhancing human-AI collaboration; trustworthy and explainable AI; neurosymbolic AI; general-purpose neuro-symbolic methods; personalised medicine; embodied intelligence; emotion-aware AI; multi-agent frameworks; human-AI collective cognition; brain-inspired AI; addressing AI’s energy demand; and next generation LLMs.
Several contextual factors that shape the development and uptake of AI are highlighted across social, technological, economical, environmental and political and regulatory domains, including: AI literacy; inter-disciplinary and inclusive development of models; benchmarking practices; and sustainability.
The outcomes of this exercise may be used to inform future funding topics for EIC Challenges and other EC calls. They can also provide input for EIC and EC reports, as well as supporting other EU policy initiatives.

This brief documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, in the context of FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and break-through INNOVation) a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to support the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and other anticipatory methodologies.

The workshop, held online on 15 May 2025, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals related to emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs), within cell and gene therapies.

Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts, which led to the identification of seven key topics: in vivo gene therapy; microphysiological pre-clinical models; stem cells in multiple applications; new tools for advanced tissue delivery; in silico & AI; conversion of tumour cells; and emerging genome and epigenome-based therapies.

Participants also highlighted various contextual factors that could influence the development, adoption, and uptake of emerging technologies within this field, including in domains such as: competitiveness and geopolitics; talent and expertise; cross-border and cross-sector collaboration; funding, economic and market conditions; regulatory, safety and ethical challenges; health and RDI ecosystems; and infrastructure and manufacturing.

This literature review is part of the FUTURINNOV project—a collaboration between the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council and SMEs Executive Agency—focuses on surfacing signals of emerging technologies and some breakthrough innovations.
This literature review report focuses on signals based on emerging technologies developed by non-EU countries and summarises findings in a final selection of 30 signals and trends clustered according to the 10 critical technology areas defined by the European Commission, as well as through other frameworks such as the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform and the EIC’s portfolios and specific taxonomy. The report identifies topics, including climate-adaption tech, neurotech, digital and network security and critical raw materials, as areas deserving of further research and development.
The report provides insights for the EIC to anticipate technological developments and address potential security concerns, ensuring the EU's position at the forefront of global innovation.

The Signals Cards present emerging issues identified through the ESPAS Horizon Scanning activity. Apart from using them to inform the regular Horizon Scanning newsletters, they work well as conversation starters in (foresight) workshops to get people into the right headspace to think about and interact with the future. The Signal Cards are a fun and interactive tool ideal for workshops to expand thinking, foster imagination and explore different potential futures. 

How to use the cards

Instructions provided with the cards contain four different short exercises that can be used at the beginning of a workshop to broaden the thinking, spark imagination and encourage looking forward.

You can start your workshop with a quick exercise to

📌 find relevant signals of change for your topic

📌 challenge the common perspective

📌 explore different aspects of novelty or

📌 think about the culminating effects various signals might have together.

If you have more time, you can dive deeper into the signals and explore their potential impacts for example in the beginning of a (foresight) project. Participants can envision a world where some of the signals become reality and brainstorm what might be the consequences. This can help to pinpoint areas for further analysis. You can find detailed instructions for all these exercises in the Signal Cards file. Or feel free to create your own activities with the Signals Cards!

Download the Signal Cards, follow the enclosed detailed instructions and see how they can transform your next workshop.

Print the chosen cards (ideally on thick paper, 2 pages per A4 sheet to get A5 sized cards) or paste them as pictures to a digital platform for online workshops.

Read more from the blog.

This is the eighth report from the ESPAS horizon scanning process which looks at “signals of change” – emerging trends and
issues – that may appear marginal today but could become important for the EU in the future.

Read all the Issues here.  

The foresight workshop Emotion Ecosystems 2040 was conducted on 📅 24-25th of June 2025, as part of the project Eye of Europe . 

Over the course of the two-day workshop, the participants explored the theme of emotion ecosystems by working through a structured process in three facilitated groups, whose composition shifted at key moments. The work began by framing the concept of “emotion ecosystems” in terms of a curated set of societal tensions, each expressing the strain between a shared aspiration and its undesirable consequences: 🌀 Hyperconnection vs Isolation; 🌍Craving for unity vs Tribal polarization; 🩹 Healing collective traumas vs Solitary coping ...and more.

To delve into these tensions, participants applied the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) framework twice: first, 🔍to examine the present by unpacking common narratives, systemic structures, shared worldviews, and deep cultural metaphors; and then again, in a creative key, 💡to imagine preferable futures. This second phase involved reconstructing alternative metaphors, beliefs, and systemic designs, supported by a short horizon scanning exercise based on a set of pre-existing and participant-generated key drivers of change. 

Our societies are facing increasingly complex sets of risks, and the rapid pace of change is challenging existing governance systems. There is a growing acknowledgement of the need to transform current approaches to policymaking and decision-making to become more futureoriented in support of anticipatory action and building long-term resilience.

The UN Summit of the Future, held in September 2024, marked a pivotal moment in global governance. The Pact for the Future, including its annexes on a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations, was adopted by the UN General Assembly by consensus and committed to a broad range of priorities to ensure that the multilateral system is better able to
address the realities of today and prepare for the challenges of tomorrow.

To contribute to fostering a culture of anticipation and preparedness, and to building a multilateral system that remains relevant for current and future generations, the UN Futures Lab/Global Hub and the International Science Council (ISC) have collaborated to better understand the concrete and transformational role of futures thinking and strategic foresight in informing decision-making and action. Futures thinking and strategic foresight are key to helping us address complex issues and deal with significant uncertainty – and to embedding long-term perspectives that consider policy implications on future generations.

Drawing on case studies from the Global South , this joint paper demonstrates the versatility of foresight practices with a focus on tangible actions for decision-makers and policymakers. It also illustrates how these approaches can support anticipatory governance and resilience building, offering lessons learned and practical recommendations.

The selection of 14 case studies presented in this report reflect balance across geographies, themes, sectors, stakeholders, and foresight tools. The case studies illustrate a range of impacts, primarily through a typology of approaches by desired outcomes as outlined below:

📌Local and Indigenous Knowledge, Sources, and Practices

        📌Building Local Capacities and Durable Solutions from Community-Led Initiatives

        📌Multistakeholder Partnerships and Collaborations

        📌Organizational Development

        📌Sector-Wide Policy Development and Innovation

        📌Futures Empowered by Technological Advancements and Innovation

        📌Improved Social Outcomes/Social Well-Being for Marginalized Communities

        📌Rebuilding Narratives

🔗Source: UN Futures Lab/Global Hub and the International Science Council (2025). Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Action: Insights from the Global South, New York. unfutureslab.org/project/futures-thinking-and-strategic-foresight-in-action-insights-from-the-global-south

The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.


We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.

How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/ 

EIT Food Consumer Observatory is organising online workshops focusing on the consumer acceptance of functional and processed food and alternative proteins by 2035. The online workshops are organised on September 11 and 18, from 10 to 13 hours CET. This is an open invitation to participate. It is free, just write us to consider your participation and learn more about the process: info@if-institute.org

What to expect in the workshops:
Before the workshops: Read this brief background document to familiarise yourself with the approach and prepare for the workshops.
During the workshops: Discuss and participate by writing your comments via MS Teams chat and the Miro board sticky notes. Note that the workshops will be recorded to enable automated transcription in Teams.
After the workshops: The expert team will develop scenario narratives, which are presented and discussed further in another workshop on November 4th 10-13 CET, which allows the reflection of scenario implications for the current agrifood ecosystem. Finally, a policy brief will be published end of the year.

Last year, we did a similar process focusing on the future of new food products and experiences and One Health. More information here:
https://if-institute.org/futures-of-food-consumption-in-2035-in-europe-on-sustainability-health-and-technology 

𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗥&𝗜 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 unfolded on September 18-19th on Romania’s seaside coast — two breezy summer days that provided the perfect setting for a rich exploration of “foresight about foresight.”

Co-hosted by Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding - UEFISCDI and AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, and part of the 𝗘𝘆𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 (a Coordination and Support Action funded by the European Commission), the event brought together the community of practice working to 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 & 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝗥&𝗜) 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲.

Our shared ambition was to imagine a vision that is grounded in reality and lived experience, yet bold enough to inspire the next decade of foresight’s contribution to R&I.

Discussions flowed through several stages:
🌍 reflecting on today’s foresight landscape, particularly within R&I in Europe
🔎 identifying likely drivers of change for R&I in society by 2040
🧭 probing the forces that could reshape foresight itself by 2040 and finally,
🚀 envisioning the role and capabilities foresight will need to support R&I in 2040.

A vision document capturing the outcomes of the workshop will be shared in due course, once the many insights, contributions, and reflections have been carefully woven together. 

Romania’s public administration faces deep-rooted structural challenges that hinder the development of digital competencies and slow progress in both digital transformation and human resources management (HRM) reforms. While digital competencies are essential to achieving Romania’s public sector modernization goals, they are not a standalone solution. In this context, the government of Romania, assisted by the World Bank through the Technical Support Instrument (TSI), aims to develop a General Digital Competence Framework for Civil Servants.

This report if one of the outputs of the TSI project; its goal is to identify the digital competencies necessary at the intersection of Romania’s digital transformation and HRM reform agendas, laying the groundwork for a more capable and future-ready public administration. The report employs a comprehensive multi-layered analysis, incorporating: a top-down review of national and EU strategies, policies, and regulations; a bottom-up analysis of job descriptions, focus groups, interviews, and working groups; international best practices in public sector digital competencies; and a foresight perspective to anticipate future digital skill needs.

Chapter VI | Foresight: fit-for-future digital roles in the public administration describes the foresight exercise carried out by Institutul de Prospectiva and the World Bank, which was aimed at ensuring that the proposed digital competency framework will remain future-ready, enabling civil servants to navigate digital transformation, deliver citizen-centric services, and address complex policy challenges with agility and innovation. The process was meant to inform the definition of specific digital roles that are needed in the future, but also to allow the formulation of recommendations regarding the general digital competencies of public administration employees.

The foresight methodology utilized horizon scanning and scenarios (both explorative and normative), as essential tools in helping policymakers navigate uncertainty by exploring various probable and/or desirable futures. This foresight exercise focused on the year 2032, a timeframe suited for significant structural transformation in public administration, allowing for the development and maturity of complex digital systems.

In terms of process, the scenario-building process was based on an iterative consultation process. It built on inputs developed by the foresight team from Institutul de Prospectiva and was progressively refined through three online working sessions with international experts from the World Bank and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and a final in-person workshop with local experts from the public administration and the private sector in Romania.
The figure below provides a concise overview of the scenario-building steps.

📌The Baseline Scenario “Romanian Digital Administration in 2032” provides a ‘current paradigm’ case: It takes the current Romanian strategic documents in the field of digital transformation as a starting point. It assumes that the key goals set in these
documents are generally met by 2032. The logic is the following: assuming Romania’s current digitalization paradigm (and
associated digital roles) turn out mostly as planned, what is the gap between this best-case baseline and the digital society scenarios for 2032?

📌The Context Scenario about the “Digital society in Romania in 2032” is an exploratory scenario, meaning it describes a probable future rather than one driven by a deliberate vision of a desirable future society. The core scenario integrates high-impact, high-probability trends - or drivers of change -identified in the initial horizon scanning phase. While these drivers describe the evolution of the European and global contexts, their advancement has been partially adjusted to reflect specific conditions in Romania. In addition to the core scenario, four other narratives were built around drivers of change previously identified as having high impact as well as a rather high degree of uncertainty. These new dimensions largely complement rather than challenge the core scenario.

📌The five Aspirational Scenarios 2032 describe visions regarding the digital transformation of the Romanian public administration, going beyond the trajectory set in the baseline scenario. They examine a range of potential paths/options that could contribute, individually or in various combinations, to a more ambitious and impactful digital transformation in the public administration. Each scenario revolves around a key dimension. Primarily, these dimensions emerge from Romania’s current policy discourse and strategic documents, where they are often mentioned but with limited precision or commitment. Additionally, they reflect elements of the context scenario, incorporating anticipated societal developments by 2032, as
well as digital trends and paradigm shifts observed in public administrations in the EU and worldwide.

A list of key digital roles follows the baseline and aspirational scenarios, outlining the expertise civil servants need to bring them to life. These roles do not distinguish between in-house and outsourced expertise, as that remains a separate decision.

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies has a long history and proven track-record of working with corporations and organisations worldwide, applying strategic foresight to specific societal and business challenges.

These are our 10 principles for strategic foresight that serves as the foundation for how we approach strategic foresight as a discipline. We have compiled and refined the principles from our own extensive experience, as well as drawn inspiration from other thinkers and practitioners within the field. Organisations with a culture of strategic foresight fare better. However, every
strategic foresight project is different, and should be based on its own specific context, premises and objectives. Some are large-scale, deeply integrated into the organisation, while others are more lightweight and ad hoc. 

Large-scale and comprehensive setups are not necessarily needed to benefit and learn from strategic foresight, and every organisation or team is capable of developing simple processes that give them the ability to better anticipate the future.
Situation should define approach.

What was the challenge?

The Research Council of Norway (RCN) identified five strategic areas in pursuit of ground-breaking research, radical innovation and sustainable development. RCN required a robust evidence base to help develop long-term, priority missions to help solve one or more societal challenges, as well as underpinning structural measures of the research environment in Norway. The five strategic areas include: Oceans; Green transition; Health and welfare; Cohesion and globalisation; and Technology and digitalisation.

How did we approach it?

We adopted a mixed method, participatory approach involving a variety of research tools such as trend analyses, literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, crowdsourcing ideas from experts, a survey of the public, future scenario analyses and workshops.

The core foresight work allowed us to examine what might happen in the next ten years in the different strategic areas and wider R&I system in Norway. Scenarios of future states were used as the basis for workshop discussions to stress test potential missions and structural measures that the RCN could consider developing and implementing in the future.

What was the outcome or impact of the work?

Extensive findings from this research were published in a series of nine reports. The research was cited as evidence in the RCN’s input to the 2022 revision of the Long-Term Plan for Research and Higher Education 2019–2028, which specifies the Norwegian government’s ambitions, key objectives and priority areas for research and higher education.

The study also helped inform the RCN’s internal decision making, strategies and organisational activities. In addition, a summary of the findings and proposals was presented to the relevant Norwegian minister.

Project webpage: https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/2021/future-research-innovation-norway.html 

Research outputs:

• Summary report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-1.pdf 
• Addressing future societal challenges in Norway: Detailed methodology report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-2.pdf
• A summary of potential cross-cutting missions to address future societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-3.pdf
  
  Structural measures to develop a resilient research and innovation environment in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-4.pdf
  
  Health and welfare: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-5.pdf
  
  Oceans: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-6.pdf
  
  Technology and digitalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-7.pdf
  
  Cohesion and globalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-8.pdf
  
  Green transition: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-9.pdf

Founded in 1989 as an academic spin-off of Sussex University (UK), Technopolis Group is an international research and consulting organisation working for the public sector. Starting as a frontrunner in the science, technology and innovation policy sector, we have grown and diversified our areas of expertise and solutions to climate change and environment, digital transformation, education and skills, life sciences and health, and international cooperation. We have expanded our activities beyond Europe, to Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific. 

Technopolis Group combines state-of-the-art social science methods with international expertise in core domain areas. We conduct strategic and foresight studies on a wide range of topics related to research and innovation, entrepreneurship, SMEs and industry, digital transformation, regional development and cohesion, higher education and skills, green economy, and health and life sciences.

The introduction of a new technology is never an isolated event and never concerns only one market or one domain. There are invariably socio-cultural, political, economic, and environmental implications, as well as impacts, influences, “cross-pollination”, and correlations among different technologies.

The very broad definition of technology itself betrays its intrinsic complexity: a vast field of research involving various technical and scientific disciplines, which examines the application and use of everything that can serve to solve problems. The term “technology” also refers to the aggregate of knowledge, skills, and tools used to design, create, and utilise objects, processes, systems, or services to meet human needs.

An emerging technology, in particular, is one that is radically new and relatively fast-growing technology [it is not necessarily exponential, as the common dialectics of recent years have conditioned us to expect, yet this has little to do with the mathematical concepts of exponentiality; rapid growth does not imply exponentiality]. It is characterised by a certain degree of coherence (or consistency) that persists over time and has the potential to have a substantial impact on the socio-economic-political domains (understood as the players, institutions, and models of interactions between them, as well as all the processes of knowledge production associated with these domains).

Its most significant impact lies in the future and thus in the emergency phase: an emerging technology is still quite uncertain and ambiguous. For this reason, it would be prudent to analyse its potential impacts in a timely manner, to avoid getting trapped in Amara’s Law.

We empower you to work with the futures. Our ideas show organizations how to deal with terms like weak signals, trends or white spots, and at the same time energizing to position themselves. We like discussing new developments and trends, with their respective effects on the organization, in order to design frameworks for actions and strenghten the matching future-attitude and accompanying measures.Schaltzeit has successfully provided consulting and operational services within the areas of foresight, ideation, experiences, software and design, to organizations in sectors such as telecommunication, automotive, biotechnology, software development, medicine, cosmetics and others.
We ignite and accompany you on your way to success.
Schaltzeit fills gaps, optimizes processes and forms the link between actors and processes in order to make results transparent and usable and sustainably establishes future-oriented thinking and acting.

This report sums up recent developments in neurotechnology, that is, technology that can read and modify activity from the central nervous system. Some devices record information from the brain, and others deliver stimulation to the brain (and some do both).
These technologies are rapidly advancing and are likely to have a profound impact on various aspects of society. In the near future, neurotechnology is set to revolutionise the way we approach a range of policy areas, from healthcare, education, employment, law enforcement and security, to more obvious areas such as technology, digital and research.
The report analyses advances in the technologies for monitoring and stimulating the brain, some of which are incorporated into neurotechnology devices. It acts as a horizon-scan of new and emerging uses of these technologies, and takes these as inputs to pose a range of questions for the consideration of policymakers.

Read more from the blogpost by the author.

WE HAVE A SOCIAL MISSION: TO STIMULATE CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES.
We focus on Futures & Foresight (Futures Thinking / Futures Studies & Strategic Foresight), with a specialization in Technology Foresight and ETS, Emerging Technologies Scanning. We are also dedicated to Futures Literacy, which involves the theoretical and practical literacy of Futures Studies and Futures Thinking. Through a Slow Journalism model, we disseminate and promote knowledge of emerging technologies, analyzing their potential impacts on our possible and alternative futures.

Futures thinking is in our DNA. SAMI was created as the St Andrews Management Institute in 1989, as a joint venture between Shell, the pioneers in scenario planning, and St Andrews University. That powerful mix of academic rigour and practical delivery continues in work and with our people today: Experienced practitioners, world-renowned futures authors, and consultants with first-hand experience of the public sector and the challenges facing it.

SAMI was commissioned by the Government Office for Science to overhaul its Futures Toolkit. We have reviewed and re-written many of the core tools, adding new ones and advising on more advanced techniques.

SAMI Consulting Ltd are futures domain specialists. We have 30 years’ experience of working internationally, with the European Commission and with HM Government on futures projects. We understand the specific needs of Government in formulating and reaching decisions at both the policy and delivery levels. We have worked with the Cabinet Office, the Government Office for Science and HMG central departments; agencies; Local Government, Local Enterprise Partnerships, NDPBs, police forces and security agencies, universities and charities.

We work with you using a wide range of foresight tools including scenario planning. We identify
major drivers of change impacting your organisation, develop different futures and test alternative
strategies. This participative approach builds capability in your team, enabling them to become
more innovative and more able to react rapidly to unexpected change.

We offer the full range of Futures capability from gathering intelligence, to making sense of it, to
testing and developing your strategy, making decisions and taking action. We use the full range of
Futures and Foresight tools, conduct our own research and maintain our own knowledge acquisition
mechanisms. This means we can deliver a faster, tailored and more sophisticated response to your
needs and avoid ‘reinventing the wheel.’

SAMI’s experienced facilitators are adept at managing the unique challenges of futures workshops.
We enable participants to step outside their present-bias into a futures-mode of thinking

Healthy and Sustainable Diets, Circularity, Diversity: Pathways in Transition for Resilient European Agriculture and Food Systems in Times of Global Crisis (6th SCAR Foresight)
Explorative scenarios built upon the transition pathways with a deep dive on natural resources - land and water

The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research has a long tradition in the European Commission and represents the link of DG RTDI to the Member States in Agricultural Research. SCAR Foresight and the respective reports can be traced back to discussions and a working group for the European Commission in 2005/2006. On this basis, the first SCAR Foresight was conducted to highlight developments in the agricultural sector, new opportunities and better links to the research system. The areas of SCAR are broad: agriculture and fisheries, food systems, bioeconomy, and forestry.

Until now, five Foresight activities were under way , and the EC and Member States have used Foresight recommendations in planning their research coordination activities established under Horizon Europe (HE).

The 6th SCAR Foresight study is building on the 5th SCAR Foresight study and its transition pathways with adding explorative scenarios to the pathways (opening up the topics of the pathways once more), and linking them to a deep dive on natural resources, land and water. The three main transition pathways identified in the 5th SCAR Foresight were still judged as valid but need to be pursued in a new context. This context is marked by poly- and permacrises and new game changers like high-tech innovations as well as recent geopolitical developments and European political guidelines.

The 6th SCAR Foresight has the general objective of supporting a safe and just transition towards a more sustainable, competitive, and resilient agriculture and food sector including fisheries, forestry and bioeconomy. The EU political guidelines and the new political agenda under the new European Commission are taken into account. Results of the 6th SCAR Foresight will be provided as inputs to the FP10 Work Programme, to the strategic approach to EU agricultural research and innovation and the Food 2030 R&I initiative as well as to any other relevant and upcoming strategies and initiatives, at the national, European as well as at global level.

Summary

Core Themes
The book reimagines humanity’s future through planetary foresight, blending historical wisdom with planetary stewardship. It critiques linear Western progress narratives and advocates for a hybrid, cyclical vision of history, emphasizing pluralistic identities and reverence for life.

Structural Framework
Organized into thematic sections, the work begins with “The Mysterious Lord of Time,” challenging linear temporality and introducing non-linear, culturally diverse historical perspectives. “Evolving Belief Systems” contrasts Indo-Iranic, Mesopotamian, and Hellenic thought with Abrahamic traditions, highlighting ancient influences on modern pluralism.

Imagination and Futures
The “Histories of Imagination” section explores myth and storytelling as drivers of civilization, while “Scenarios of Future Worlds” applies foresight methodologies to geopolitical and technological evolution, emphasizing ecological consciousness. The final chapters expand to cosmic intelligence and ethics, framing humanity’s role within universal interconnectedness.

Ethical Vision
Central to the thesis is a call for planetary identity and stewardship, merging forgotten wisdom traditions with modern foresight to navigate ecological and technological uncertainties. The book positions itself as both a philosophical guide and practical framework for ethical transformation in an era of global crises.

Key Argument
Motti asserts that humanity is transitioning from a “Second Nomad Age” (characterized by fragmentation) toward a “Second Settlement Age” marked by planetary consciousness, requiring creative complexity and ethical vigilance.