Europe’s research and innovation (R&I) system is under mounting pressure as demographic decline, rapid technological
shifts, and constrained funding begin to alter student intake, the graduate pipeline, and research career prospects. By 2050, Europe could face 1.5 million fewer higher education students and a 12% decline in the labour force. These trends call for bold, future-oriented strategies.

Comissionned by DG Research & Innovation, the Foresight-on-Demand project team adopted a structured foresight architecture designed to translate broad uncertainties into actionable strategy. A hybrid and multi-stage strategic foresight methodology was used to systematically assess the impact of demographic change on the European R&I system.

What you'll find in this report:

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding.
• A six-step Foresight Process combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges.
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system.
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, foster lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology.
  

Norway is at the digital frontier in many areas. However, it needs to keep pace with rapid technological developments and competition, while improving performance in areas where it could catch up. Staying at the frontier requires agility, flexibility and well-co-ordinated digital policies. A national digital strategy can play an important role to ensure the policy framework in place makes the most of digital technologies and data for growth and well-being.

Norway has identified several underlying priorities that will shape the content and structure of its forthcoming national digital strategy: ensuring high-quality information and communications infrastructure; developing the data economy; fostering data protection and information security; increasing the digitalisation of small and medium-sized enterprises; promoting an inclusive digital society in the context of an ageing population; supporting the green transition; and digitalising the public sector. These priorities will help realise Norway’s vision of a sustainable welfare society that safeguards a safe and simple everyday life for citizens and the non-governmental sector, a strengthened business sector and a better and renewed public sector.

Norway’s digital policy landscape comprises relatively more initiatives related to Innovation than the other dimensions of the OECD Going Digital Integrated Policy Framework (the Framework), followed by Society, Access and Use. In terms of performance, Norway outperforms all OECD countries in indicators related to the effective use of digital technologies. It also outperforms the OECD and Nordic averages in societal indicators of digital transformation. Norway is above the OECD average on indicators of Trust and Access, although below the Nordic average. Norway has opportunities to catch up in indicators related to Market openness, Jobs and Innovation where there is the most potential to improve performance.

Recommendations
Key policy recommendations to achieve a more digital, innovative and inclusive Norway are structured around six areas:

Encourage technology adoption and skills development to ensure a more digital-intensive economy and resilient workforce. This involves promoting adoption of digital technologies among small and medium-sized enterprises and empowering people with the skills to succeed in a digital world of work.

Prioritise innovation to create a more digital Norway. This requires encouraging a culture of experimentation and risk taking, reducing regulatory burdens on start-ups and young firms, incentivising venture capital investment and support firms in scaling up, promoting investment in research and development, and harnessing the potential of “GovTech”.

Maximise the potential of data, while maintaining Norway’s strong culture of trust. This includes leveraging Norway’s culture of trust to incentivise data sharing, realising the potential of open government data to drive digital innovation, taking a multifaceted approach to monitoring and addressing cyber risks, and supporting development of data-related skills and infrastructure.

Harness the potential of digital technologies for society. This involves increasing digital inclusion through policies targeted at the groups most in need, discouraging e-waste production and encouraging e-waste recycling.

Prepare for next generation networks and a future of unlimited connectivity everywhere. This entails upgrading fixed and mobile networks to 5G and beyond, closing geographic connectivity divides by focusing on the underserved, fostering competition and reducing red tape, and supporting businesses to improve their connectivity.

Design holistic digital policies within effective governance and monitoring mechanisms. This involves using all dimensions of the Framework to design future digital policies; fostering interministerial and stakeholder co-operation in digital policy design and implementation; monitoring progress using the OECD Going Digital Toolkit as Norway’s national digital dashboard; and strengthening a whole-of-government approach to adoption of digital technologies in the public sector.

Source: OECD - Publications  

After an extensive synthesis of the OECD’s existing work on the teaching profession over the years, the need to explore professional roles and identity became obvious. The roles and responsibilities of teachers have seen significant changes over the past decade. Education, childhood, labour markets and society as a whole have experienced considerable changes, prompting the need to think about the effects of changes on the teaching profession. The OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) project on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching project researched how professionalism has evolved, including the importance of working with others to confront increasingly complex contexts, so called “connective professionalism”. Based on the evidence base and ideas for next practice, the project developed a methodology to help diverse stakeholders in education to construct a shared vision on what the teaching profession could look like in the future.

This study in Wales (United Kingdom) is the second in a series of three education system studies conducted in 2023 and 2024. Various stakeholders, including teachers, school leaders, researchers, teacher educators, teacher unions, and professionals (potentially) supporting teachers and schools provided feedback on their ambitions for the future of teaching in Wales. Choosing among a set of ambitions to better connect teachers with other professionals within the school community, other education providers (such as universities and teacher education colleges) and broader society, they shared their judgements of what would be high priority and also how big a change this would be from the current context. Would it be an ambition for transformation over a period of many years? Or would it be possible to build on existing mechanisms or initiatives? Or could this ambition be achieved by improvements over the short term?

Different perspectives were gathered in two main ways. First, via an online survey. Second, via two stakeholder workshops in Bangor and Cardiff where a total of six working groups collectively constructed scenarios for the future of teaching. Each working group comprised individuals with different roles and responsibilities in or around schools. They worked with the results of the survey and selected priority ambitions to support their vision on the future of teaching. These provided stimulus for their discussions, but their specific visions grew out of a mutual exchange of professional experiences from different perspectives within and surrounding teaching in Wales.

Of course, this study in no way aims to be representative or comprehensive. It draws on the work of a group of willing professionals with a stake in Wales education who offered to share their expertise. This initial effort to anticipate and increase deeper, structured thinking about medium- and long-term scenarios for teacher professionalism and empowerment offers input on how to strengthen the teaching profession in Wales. Potential benefits for the system include long-term strategic thinking regarding the Welsh teacher workforce and finding solutions to issues that transcend the short term.

While constructing their scenarios for the future of teaching, stakeholders reflected on four research questions set for this study by the team at Welsh Government in consultation with the OECD.

How do we develop teacher professional identity and a more collaborative profession? The set of future scenarios envisage a focus on collective professional identity at a school level. There would be particular focuses on peer-to-peer interactions as well as school-to-school exchanges. Time and space would be provided to support a variety of exploration that involves building innovations, following passions and interests, engaging in shared learning, working with colleagues, communities and other partners.

How could a career development perspective for all staff in schools contribute to a vibrant and thriving workforce? Career development would be an integral focus to support the workforce. This would include visible and diverse career pathways that follow and invest in career journeys. Teachers would be supported to engage in their own professional growth journey and collaborations that enrich their professional work. Career pathways would allow for flexibility and lifelong learning opportunities that support a dynamic workforce.

How can all who work in schools encourage innovation and the examination of professional roles in schools as learning organisations? Valuing innovative practices requires alignment at all levels to define what innovation looks like at a school level. This includes strengthening collaborative practices that support reflection, experimentation, partnering and sharing. Support includes time and space to work as part of a professional community. It is important to build connections across innovations to reduce duplication of effort and to maximise shared learning.

And how could investment in the professional identity of teachers, especially in secondary schools, make the profession in those settings more attractive? Teachers should be able to align their intrinsic motivation to their teaching, keeping their practice closer to their professional interests and qualities, and having a sense of autonomy in their work. Investing in continuous, bespoke support and professional development enhances teacher well-being, strengthens their professional identity, and makes the teaching profession more attractive and rewarding. Meaningful development opportunities, recognition, and leadership roles enhances the profession’s appeal and fosters long-term commitment.

The OECD identified seven key elements that feature across a set of four preferred future scenarios for the future of teaching in Wales. Arguably, all would be important to the future of teaching and many are common to several of the scenarios. In particular, diverse professional roles and careers, healthy working environment, school leadership, community support/ partnerships, school-university partnerships, innovation and communication feature to some extent across all four scenarios. Governance and accountability were explicitly featured in three scenarios.

The study also underlines the importance of thinking in more nuanced ways about the existing teacher workforce and potential new recruits. There is a rich diversity of professionals working within schools in Wales, with different motivations, life phases, passions, ambitions and professional development needs. An evidence-informed set of seven Welsh teacher personas provides input to stress test the set of future scenarios. What would different teachers find attractive in the future scenarios that were developed? Would it be particularly attractive to experienced teachers? Would newer recruits hold some reservations? Would it match what younger people will be looking for in their working lives? Overall, the Welsh teacher personas responded positively to the suggested scenarios for the teaching profession in Wales.

This report presents results of the initial reflection and provides tools to extend the exercise going forward.

Source: OECD - Publications  

Have you ever wondered how you will (still) be conducting research or teaching in 2050? 

The Foresight on Demand consortium (FOD2) invites you to participate in a survey in context to “Demographic change: implications and opportunities for Europe’s R&I system by 2050”.

Your input will help identify weak signals, early trends, and unexpected ideas that could shape research careers, higher education, and innovation systems in Europe by 2050.

Whether you are noticing shifts in work culture, research or teaching models, funding landscapes, please take 10-15 minutes and share your thoughts ! The survey is open until April 18.

This report provides the findings from the ‘Foresight on Demand’ project supporting the Horizon Europe
Mission Board for Healthy Oceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters in its task of defining specific
Mission(s) to be addressed in Horizon Europe. The overarching goal of the project was to support the
reflections of the Mission Board from a forward-looking perspective.

The team of experts was set up by the ‘Foresight on Demand’ consortium to provide the Board with wellversed
expertise in both foresight methodology as well as thematic developments on the future of
oceans and water. The objective was to think along with the board and to stimulate the debates by
raising surprising and challenging issues based on forward-looking analysis and exploration. The project
provided the Mission Board with new information, (systemic) insights and/or alternative future visions
that connect the extremely multi-dimensioned topics tackled by this Mission Board.

The project had started with the scoping phase of identifying focal areas of which results were discussed
in the meeting with the Mission Board. Subsequently, the foresight team explored further future
uncertainties and knowledge gaps via a real-time Delhi survey to stakeholders. The scoping phase
began with the scanning of 33 foresight reports looking towards 2050, foresight databases and news
feeds to address long-term developments and emerging signals of change. In particular, the foresight
expert team developed five focal areas, which were presented to the Mission Board to provide
interconnected insights as well as challenging and provocative ideas to enrich their work. The five focal
areas are summarised in the table below:

After the initial phase of scanning and analysing emerging issues and synthesising the findings into five
focal areas the results were discussed with the Mission Board. In the meeting the discussion led the
Mission Board request the foresight team to continue the foresight work and identify further data and
knowledge gaps related to oceans and waters, the recovery of oceans and waters and their role in
climate change mitigation.

In line with foresight practice as well as with the Mission Board’s explicit desire to involve a wider public,
the study engaged stakeholders via a real-time Delphi method highly suitable to address future
uncertainties. The Delphi method is a structured group communication process, dealing with subjects,
on which often unsure and incomplete knowledge is available, that are judged upon by experts. The
idea is that the respondents can learn from the views of others, without being unduly influenced by the
hierarchies or other societal structures and power relations.
Invitations to the survey were sent to stakeholder groups in different sectors of society, in particular:
research and development, policy, industry and civil society. Approx. 3000 European stakeholders were
invited. The survey platform was open two weeks in February 2020 leading to the total of 238 registered
participants of which 138 finished the survey.

Participants assessed the total of 15 future statements and proposed new ones to be considered by the
Mission Board, in three areas: i) oceans and other water ecosystems, ii) the recovery of healthy oceans
and waters and iii) the role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation. The results of the assessments
presented in mean values are summarised in the following table in each of the three areas.

The findings form the survey can be summarised on each of the areas as follows:

• Oceans and other water ecosystems: In this area, all proposed issues are accepted as
  important but, with the current attitude towards marine and water ecosystems, respondents
  believed that actions will not be sustained properly. The reason for this lack of consistency
  between “right things to do” and what is actually done probably resides in cultural gaps that
  make it difficult to pass from theoretical analyses and legislation to action, with the reversal of
  current trends. Nonetheless, the survey indicates consensus about the adoption of the
  ecosystem approach, recognising that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an
  integral component of ecosystems and emphasizing the need for collaboration between the
  scientific community, the economic sector, policymakers and the public at large.
• The recovery of healthy oceans and waters: In this area, the survey showed a remarkable
  consistency, from all stakeholders, on the actions contributing to healthy oceans and waters.
  This point could almost guarantee the success of the mission as it seems that the society
  understands the enormous contribution of healthy oceans and waters on the planet earth.
  Although the list of what can be achieved in the near future could be endless, the fact that we
  have to include society at large in addressing challenges, should be our first step.
• The role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation: The respondents provided a global
  impression that Europe can be leader in several fields of climate mitigation. If, however, the
  rest of the world is not addressing these efforts of climate mitigation, the role of Europe will not
  have significant impact. There is no single major technological solution that, alone, would curb
  the climate change, a goal that might be achieved by a mix of technologies and regulations, at
  the right geographic scale, and as early as possible. Furthermore, positive and negative
  impacts of each technology have to be assessed carefully as very little is still known on the
  mid-term and long-term impacts of the different technologies available today. Much more
  research and stakeholder cooperation are required to select the right technologies and
  the optimum strategies on time, in order to avoid unmanageable trends.
• Further areas to be explored: Next to the topics proposed by the foresight expert team,
  stakeholders were asked to suggest other topics that should be understood better and acted
  upon in the EU. Three main topics emerged: research and research infrastructure, civil
  society, and corporate social responsibility.

Final remarks and recommendations

The first part of the foresight study led to the descriptions of five possible focal areas for European
innovation action in the realm of oceans and waters: 1. Climate-resilient coastlines, 2. Clean water for
the blue planet, 3. Vital aquatic ecosystems, 4. Open digital twin of oceans and waters, 5. Humans at
sea. All these focal areas have similar magnitudes, notably if we consider an extensive view of "humans
at sea" not only as an island network but as a continuum between a vulnerable and densely populated
low elevation zone and a potentially harmful but also rich coastal ocean. In view of addressing the focal
areas or their elements in the future actions towards sustainable development in Europe, it is worth
prioritising such efforts in relation with the general theory of systems that establishes the hierarchy of
systems in three spheres showing that human activities and economy are nested into natural systems
and must obey their laws. Traditional illustrations of sustainability, however, show only a small overlap
of the three spheres, this overlap representing sustainability.

The real-time Delphi survey confirmed that there is a need for a holistic approach leading to more
structured actions. This is widely recognized but seldom satisfied. Too specific actions, undertaken while
ignoring the behaviour of the rest of the ecosystems, may lead to temporary success but will surely not
improve the overall situation. This calls for enhanced efforts in improving ocean literacy at all levels,
from the scientific community (too focused on reductionistic approaches) to the economic, social and
industrial sectors. Furthermore, the conceptual landscape embracing water ecosystems (linking oceanic
and inland waters) is very fragmented, with the high risk that while fixing specific problems other
problems are created. Hence, we conclude with three recommendations.

1. Adopt a holistic approach for balanced actions that calls for improving water literacy at all
   levels of society.
2. Create networks of interest using a common (not too technical) language embracing water
   ecosystems (including both oceanic and inland waters) to overcome fragmentation in society.
3. Conduct holistic impact assessments and establish monitoring mechanisms of measures
   implemented to fix specific problems to avoid creating in parallel new problems in complex
   ecosystems.

It would be short-sighted to assume that we, as humanity, have reached such a level of maturity that our descendants will not find some aspects of our – apparently civilised – everyday life repulsive and sad.
So we asked 60 futurists from around the world: “What will we disgust our descendants with?”
Many of the submitted ideas are already present in public discourse and confirm areas in which we need to change. But we were especially interested in novel barbarisms that humanity is still largely oblivious to.
The study showcases the futurists’ answers grouped into 93 contemporary barbarisms ranked in a public vote according to how eye-opening they are.