This report of the European Foresight Platform (EFP) reports on a regional foresight programme carried out in 2011–2013 in the Antofagasta region of Chile (Dufva et al., 2016). Organised by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the programme formed part of a broader joint project with the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) that aimed at innovation-driven, sustainable economic development of the region. Its purposes were to improve foresight capability in the region, especially among the partner organisations, to enhance collaboration between industry, government and research organisations, and to support the creation of a strategic research agenda on a topic chosen by the partners. The time horizon was 2040.

The programme built on the Pact for Regional Development and Innovation signed by public and private actors in the Antofagasta region in March 2008, which sought economic growth and equality, better jobs and a path towards sustainable development. Chile looked to Finland as an example of how a resource-driven economy can become knowledge-driven when development strategies and policies are well chosen. Antofagasta is also an extreme risk area for ecological change: climate change and contamination from mining have had lasting effects on regional water supplies, and melting glaciers and the overuse of groundwater call for a significant redesign of water use.

The foresight activities had two parts. A three-day hands-on workshop in Antofagasta trained participants in futures thinking and in methods such as scenarios, roadmapping and Delphi, supported by a learning package with a glossary and a project website, and ended with group work on planning a foresight project for the region. On this basis, VTT and CICITEM selected the topic of a foresight pilot for its importance and relevance to different stakeholders. The pilot combined scenario and roadmapping work through a conference, two stakeholder workshops, a stakeholder survey, interviews with mining companies and a reflection discussion with CICITEM experts. VTT provided guidance and support, but the emphasis was on learning by doing for CICITEM researchers, who worked with researchers from local universities, representatives of local SMEs, government officials and mining companies.

Drawing on the process and the foresight literature, the authors developed a multi-layered framework for analysing the contributions of foresight (Dufva et al., 2015). At the landscape layer, foresight connects the region to the global context, helping participants to see Antofagasta as part of a larger system and to find its niche in global markets. At the innovation-system layer, it supports joint strategy formulation and a shared vision; stakeholder analysis helped to choose a suitably controversial topic that was interesting for all stakeholder groups and committed them to the process. At the organisational layer, the pilot generated new ideas about the role and mission of CICITEM, although not every researcher saw its benefit and some were reluctant to participate, which shows how a foresight process is entangled with organisational dynamics. At the individual layer, learning by doing gave participants experience in scoping, designing, implementing and documenting foresight; one CICITEM researcher reflected that he had learned to bring ideas 'high up in the sky down to earth'.

The report draws three implications for policy-making and practice. Foresight should be designed with multiple layers in mind, with particular attention to individuals, since changes in mindsets and worldviews through learning are what carry change into organisations and innovation systems. The nature of the effects varies between layers: knowledge produced weighs more at the landscape and innovation-system layers, whereas capabilities gained matter more at the organisational and individual layers. Finally, the layers can be used to structure the effects of foresight, showing that there is more to foresight than its immediate tangible outcomes and that a successful process can change the capacity of an organisation or a community to anticipate the future and, through that, contribute to regional transformation.

References

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010 

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2016). Building regional foresight capability in Antofagasta, Chile (EFP Brief No. 260). European Foresight Platform. https://if-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Building_Regional_Foresight_in_Antofagasta_Chile_EFP-Brief-No.260.pdf 

La Palma Research Centre hosted the Foresight Methodology Workshop of the Horizon 2020 project Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis (MICA) in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria on 10–11 May 2017. The project was concerned with intelligence on mineral raw materials, and the workshop looked at how foresight methods could serve that purpose. My contribution drew on a set of international foresight exercises carried out over the previous decade, ranging from regional foresight in a Chilean mining region to European horizon scanning and global roadmapping in manufacturing (Könnölä, 2017). This post revisits the presentation and its four key messages: foresight serves the whole policy cycle, foresight designs are always customised, foresight tools are never the first step, and the value of foresight depends on engaging the 'client'. The slides are attached.

1. Foresight for the whole policy cycle

Foresight is often associated with the early stages of policy-making, when agendas are set and long-term visions are articulated. Its contribution, however, extends across the whole policy cycle. In agenda setting, foresight offers visions, a better understanding of change and greater legitimacy and transparency in the choice of priorities. In policy definition, it generates policy options and new ideas and builds ownership among those who will implement them. Ex-ante impact assessment benefits from the exploration of impacts under alternative futures, while implementation can draw on new policy configurations and a more responsive system. Evaluation, in turn, gains from prospective considerations, closing a learning loop that feeds the next round of agenda setting (Könnölä, 2017).

Underlying this is a view of the future as open. The 'futures cone' distinguishes between possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures, with business as usual forming only a narrow strand within a much wider space of potential developments (Voros, 2003). Foresight exercises differ in which part of the cone they address. Some concentrate on probable developments to support planning, others explore the plausible and the possible to test strategies against surprise, and many seek to articulate preferable futures that stakeholders are willing to work towards.

The regional foresight programme in Antofagasta, Chile, illustrated these contributions in a setting close to the interests of the raw materials community. Between 2011 and 2013, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland cooperated with the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) to improve the human capacities of CICITEM as a facilitator of regional innovation, especially in knowledge and technology management. The cooperation pursued capacity building in institutional leadership, knowledge management, innovation culture and innovation capabilities; self-sustained innovation capacity at CICITEM; and the capability to create a strategic vision for regional innovation and to facilitate joint innovation activities in the mining cluster (Dufva et al., 2016). Water, under pressure from climate change and mining, became the focus of the foresight pilot.

The contributions of the exercise can be read at four levels (Dufva et al., 2015). At the landscape level, participants gained a better understanding of global developments and networks and of Antofagasta's position in the global system, together with skills to scan and project these developments and engagement with international stakeholders. At the innovation-system level, the exercise identified key barriers and drivers in the regional system and its water-related sub-systems, actions to overcome the barriers and a vision of a desired future, and it brought stakeholders from different sectors together for the first time. At the organisational level, it produced a roadmap for research related to water and mining, strengthened the foresight culture and capability of CICITEM and improved its contacts and status. At the individual level, participants improved their understanding of the regional context and of futures thinking and learnt to conduct foresight through training and hands-on engagement in the design and management of the exercise. VTT's own innovation programme on the mineral economy pointed in a similar direction, combining competences such as hydrometallurgy, powder metallurgy and life cycle assessment with business models and foresight, and working towards a circular mineral economy based on valuable element recovery, residue utilisation, substitution of critical raw materials, remanufacturing, reuse and recycling (Könnölä, 2017).

2. Foresight designs are always customised

There is no single foresight method and no standard design. In the mapping of regional foresight exercises presented in the talk, literature review, scenarios, expert panels, futures workshops, brainstorming and SWOT analysis were the most frequently used methods, followed by questionnaires and surveys, trend extrapolation, interviews, environmental scanning, Delphi and megatrend analysis, while backcasting, stakeholder mapping, key technologies, structural analysis and technology roadmapping were used less often (Könnölä, 2017). Methods can be positioned along several dimensions: quantitative and qualitative, face-to-face and online, intuitive and rational, subjective and objective, creative and evidence-based. Good designs tend to combine methods across these dimensions rather than settle at one end of each.

Much of the value lies in integration. A typical integrated process begins with the search for signals and moves on to creating, curating and evaluating drivers. The drivers are clustered and structured into scenarios, from which success scenarios are defined. Roadmaps then reorganise the drivers, create solutions and evaluate them against the scenarios before the most promising ones are selected, after which the process turns to analysing future markets, identifying partners and defining actions (Könnölä, 2017). Three cases from the talk show how such combinations are tailored to purpose.

The first, 'Facing the Future', was a horizon scanning exercise carried out in 2009 by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) (Boden et al., 2010). Horizon scanning was organised around four interlinked activities: scoping, scanning, synthesising and coordinating. BEPA and JRC-IPTS selected six areas of analysis in February; forward-looking reports were reviewed and synthesised to identify issues in March; an online survey of 270 experts assessed the issues in April; multi-criteria analyses of the survey results followed in May; an expert workshop with 19 experts and 22 policy-makers combined the issues in June; and the final report was compiled by November. The multi-criteria analysis used RPM Screening (Könnölä et al., 2007) to compare issues under alternative preference structures. A mean-oriented analysis ranked relevance above novelty and probability, a rare-event-oriented analysis gave priority to inverse probability, and a variance-oriented analysis highlighted issues on which expert views diverged. Issues that scored well independently of the criteria preferences could thus be distinguished from those whose position depended on how the criteria were weighted, which made the prioritisation transparent and traceable (Könnölä et al., 2012).

The second case was a Web 2.0 foresight platform set up by JRC-IPTS for the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) (Haegeman et al., 2012). After preparation and a pilot, the platform opened a first phase for collecting ideas and a second phase for assessing them. Once the platform closed, a first report on the ideas was presented to the EIT Governing Board, and a background document prepared the ground for a workshop with selected experts and Board members, which led to the final report. The online and face-to-face stages were designed to complement each other, so that broad participation could be combined with focused deliberation among decision-makers.

The third case, the IMS2020 project on intelligent manufacturing systems, showed the particular challenges of global foresight (Cagnin & Könnölä, 2014). The process combined mapping, two online surveys, workshops on key area topics (KAT) and interviews. Drivers were grouped under policy and governance (e.g. aligned and coordinated policy and regulation, global multi-level collaboration, collective values and behaviours), industrial and international R&D cooperation (e.g. breakthrough technologies, cooperation across value chains, new markets, standardisation and knowledge management) and knowledge and society (e.g. education, competences and skills, energy, natural resources and environmental footprint). Scenario design options ranged from two-axis matrices to morphological combinations of factors. The IMS2020 scenarios were built on a policy and governance axis and an international industrial R&D axis, nested with knowledge society and environmental sustainability dimensions, and four snapshots were positioned within this space. The resulting vision called for rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing leading to customised and 'eternal' life-cycle solutions, for highly flexible and self-organising value chains, and for sustainable manufacturing made possible by cultural change among individuals and corporations and by a regulatory framework co-designed by governments, industries and societies. The final roadmap linked research and technological development topics, research actions and their expected impacts, and KAT visions and objectives to the IMS2020 vision over horizons of one to three, three to seven, seven to ten and ten to fifteen years.

3. Foresight tools are never the first step

A wide range of tools is available to support foresight, many of them digital. Technology maps visualise technology and patent landscapes at different levels of detail, helping clients to define strategic objectives, explore their position and follow innovation dynamics; at the Insight Foresight Institute these were developed in partnership with Tecmine. Online foresight platforms, developed with Orchidea, support structured engagement of stakeholders and experts through the submission, commenting and assessment of emerging issues, innovation ideas and challenges, with filtering and graphical presentation of results. RPM Screening, based on Robust Portfolio Modelling, allows interactive multi-criteria analysis of issues according to relevance, novelty, feasibility or other criteria (Könnölä et al., 2007, 2012). Online surveys run on commercial platforms make consultation user-friendly and efficient to manage, with flexible export of results (Könnölä, 2017).

None of these tools should be the starting point. They are always tailored to the needs of the client, and their value depends on the quality of the scoping, the questions asked and the people engaged. A technology map without a clear strategic question, or an online platform without a community willing to contribute, tends to produce data rather than insight. The choice of tools follows from the purpose of the exercise and from the policy or strategy process it is meant to inform.

4. Engaging the 'client'

The conclusions drew these experiences together. Complexity and uncertainty call for foresight and resilience. Different future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) systems are complementary, and their diversification strengthens the capacity to anticipate. Methods are best combined in a modular and responsive way, so that the design can adapt as the process unfolds. Close interaction with sponsors and clients is needed throughout, from scoping to the use of results, because foresight creates value only when its insights are taken up in decisions (Könnölä, 2017). For the raw materials community, these lessons suggest building foresight into the policy cycle, combining scanning, scenarios and roadmaps in designs tailored to the questions at hand, and engaging policy-makers, industry and researchers from the outset.

Access to the presentation: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158?utm_source=clipboard_share_button&utm_campaign=slideshare_make_sharing_viral_v2&utm_variation=control&utm_medium=share 

References

Boden, J. M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223

Cagnin, C., & Könnölä, T. (2014). Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems. Futures, 59, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.007

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2016). Building regional foresight capability in Antofagasta, Chile (EFP Brief No. 260). European Foresight Platform. https://if-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Building_Regional_Foresight_in_Antofagasta_Chile_EFP-Brief-No.260.pdf

Haegeman, K., Cagnin, C., Könnölä, T., & Collins, D. (2012). Web 2.0 foresight for innovation policy: A case of strategic agenda setting in European innovation. Innovation: Management, Policy & Practice, 14(3), 446–466. https://doi.org/10.5172/impp.2012.14.3.446

Könnölä, T. (2017, May 10–11). Foresight methods and practice: Lessons learned from international foresight exercises [Presentation slides]. Foresight Methodology Workshop, Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis project, Las Palmas, Spain. https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158

Könnölä, T., Brummer, V., & Salo, A. (2007). Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(5), 608–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.003

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021

Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379

The Euro-CASE Innovation Platform brings together European academies of engineering to examine the barriers in national innovation systems that prevent innovative SMEs in Europe from scaling up. Its analysis combined a generic review with sector 'deep dives', and the Royal Academy of Engineering of Spain (RAI) led the deep dive on industrialisation. The deep-dive workshop took place in Madrid on 30–31 January 2017, chaired by José Manuel Sanjurjo (RAI), and preparatory foresight was coordinated by Totti Könnölä and Francisco J. Jariego from Insight Foresight Instute.

Building on a background discussion paper and the results of the Euro-CASE survey, the workshop explored industrial innovation towards 2030 through industrial platform ecosystems: value networks that engage industrial providers and customers as well as research and technology organisations, universities, start-ups and other SMEs, investors, public agencies and regulators. Particular attention was paid to the future role of SMEs and the barriers they face in scaling up, and participants drew recommendations to inform European policy-making.

The findings fed into the platform report Barriers to Innovation and Scale-up of Innovative SMEs (Euro-CASE, 2017). Its industrialisation analysis stresses that keeping an advanced production base competitive remains a high priority; that jobs will shift from the physical towards cyber and convergence domains; that much of SMEs' existing software and hardware may become obsolete; and that policy should foster broad collaboration across incumbents and newcomers, sectors and public and private actors, much of it organised around digital platforms, with a focus on transformation rather than on correcting market failures alone.

References

Euro-CASE. (2017). Barriers to innovation and scale-up of innovative SMEs (Euro-CASE Innovation Platform report). https://www.euro-case.org/wp-content/uploads/Eurocase/Publications/PDF/Euro-CASE_Innovation-Platform-II-Report.pdf

Euro-CASE. (n.d.). Euro-CASE platforms: Innovation. https://www.euro-case.org/?p=35001

Insight Foresight Instit ute. (2017, March 31). SMEs, innovation and industrialisation for Europe 2030. https://if-institute.org/smes-innovation-and-industrialisation-for-europe-2030 

This study examinated the medium-term time-horizon (3-8 years) of the emerging infectious diseases (EID) threat spectrum in a manner that draws in multiple streams of contemporary and relevant research into activities focused on the development of plausible scenarios and prevention and control policy options for future infectious disease mitigation. This project drew on expertise from the ECDC and a diverse network of specialists from public health systems, biomedical R&I fields, and infectious disease research to identify and address current gaps in the ECDC’s preparedness for future EID threats. This process used an array of foresight methods and activities to help build strategies to create a robust and resilient system for the detection, identification, and responsiveness to potential future EID events. This system also included capacity building for continuous future-oriented research and monitoring activities as part of an integrated foresight capacity for the ECDC.

The study “Futures of AI: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and EU Policy” explores
plausible trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) development and assesses their implications
for Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. It aims to inform EU R&I policy and contribute
to the development of an AI, recognising AI as a technology with transformative potential across
sectors and long-term structural consequences for investment, governance and strategic
direction.

Key Findings 

• AI development is characterised by uncertainty, path dependencies and competing trajectories
  rather than a single predictable pathway.  
• AI adoption in the EU remains uneven and relatively low, with higher uptake in digitally mature
  and data-intensive sectors such as ICT and professional services; sectors like manufacturing
  and construction lag behind. Where AI is deployed, it is primarily used in supportive roles rather
  than as a transformative force reshaping core business models. 
• Future adoption trajectories diverge across sectoral profiles, ranging from deep integration in
  innovation-led sectors to incremental optimisation in operational sectors and largely
  supplementary use in service-oriented sectors. 
• Several structural barriers constrain broader diffusion, including market fragmentation, the
  dominance of SMEs with limited resources, insufficient access to high-quality and interoperable
  data and shortages of skilled professionals, while investment levels remain fragmented and
  comparatively modest. On the other side, ethical, security and trust concerns continue to shape
  adoption decisions.  
• The EU’s regulatory leadership, particularly through the AI Act, creates both opportunities for
  trust-building and risks of administrative burden if implementation is not carefully managed.  

Europe’s Research and Innovation (R&I) system is entering a period of profound change. Demographic decline, rapid technological shifts, and constrained funding are beginning to alter student intake, the graduate pipeline, and research career prospects. By 2050, Europe’s population structure will look markedly different:

• The share of people aged 85+ will more than double, reaching around 10% of the population.
• The workforce is expected to shrink by 12%—equivalent to roughly 25 million people.
• The EU will have over 3 million fewer young people under 20, reducing the talent pool entering education and research.

These shifts raise fundamental questions for the future of Europe’s R&I landscape. To address them, DG Research & Innovation commmissioned a study “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe”, which explores possible futures for Europe's R&I system and highlights how demographic pressure could become a driver of renewal and transformation. 

The study delivers:

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding.
• A six-step foresight approach combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges.
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system.
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, enable lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology

A comprehensive version of the study is available for download at the bottom the page. It presents a detailed overview of the methodological framework (including desk research, stakeholder mapping, workshop design, and data collection and analysis) along with the corresponding data and survey findings. 

The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.


We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.

How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/ 

Norway is at the digital frontier in many areas. However, it needs to keep pace with rapid technological developments and competition, while improving performance in areas where it could catch up. Staying at the frontier requires agility, flexibility and well-co-ordinated digital policies. A national digital strategy can play an important role to ensure the policy framework in place makes the most of digital technologies and data for growth and well-being.

Norway has identified several underlying priorities that will shape the content and structure of its forthcoming national digital strategy: ensuring high-quality information and communications infrastructure; developing the data economy; fostering data protection and information security; increasing the digitalisation of small and medium-sized enterprises; promoting an inclusive digital society in the context of an ageing population; supporting the green transition; and digitalising the public sector. These priorities will help realise Norway’s vision of a sustainable welfare society that safeguards a safe and simple everyday life for citizens and the non-governmental sector, a strengthened business sector and a better and renewed public sector.

Norway’s digital policy landscape comprises relatively more initiatives related to Innovation than the other dimensions of the OECD Going Digital Integrated Policy Framework (the Framework), followed by Society, Access and Use. In terms of performance, Norway outperforms all OECD countries in indicators related to the effective use of digital technologies. It also outperforms the OECD and Nordic averages in societal indicators of digital transformation. Norway is above the OECD average on indicators of Trust and Access, although below the Nordic average. Norway has opportunities to catch up in indicators related to Market openness, Jobs and Innovation where there is the most potential to improve performance.

Recommendations
Key policy recommendations to achieve a more digital, innovative and inclusive Norway are structured around six areas:

Encourage technology adoption and skills development to ensure a more digital-intensive economy and resilient workforce. This involves promoting adoption of digital technologies among small and medium-sized enterprises and empowering people with the skills to succeed in a digital world of work.

Prioritise innovation to create a more digital Norway. This requires encouraging a culture of experimentation and risk taking, reducing regulatory burdens on start-ups and young firms, incentivising venture capital investment and support firms in scaling up, promoting investment in research and development, and harnessing the potential of “GovTech”.

Maximise the potential of data, while maintaining Norway’s strong culture of trust. This includes leveraging Norway’s culture of trust to incentivise data sharing, realising the potential of open government data to drive digital innovation, taking a multifaceted approach to monitoring and addressing cyber risks, and supporting development of data-related skills and infrastructure.

Harness the potential of digital technologies for society. This involves increasing digital inclusion through policies targeted at the groups most in need, discouraging e-waste production and encouraging e-waste recycling.

Prepare for next generation networks and a future of unlimited connectivity everywhere. This entails upgrading fixed and mobile networks to 5G and beyond, closing geographic connectivity divides by focusing on the underserved, fostering competition and reducing red tape, and supporting businesses to improve their connectivity.

Design holistic digital policies within effective governance and monitoring mechanisms. This involves using all dimensions of the Framework to design future digital policies; fostering interministerial and stakeholder co-operation in digital policy design and implementation; monitoring progress using the OECD Going Digital Toolkit as Norway’s national digital dashboard; and strengthening a whole-of-government approach to adoption of digital technologies in the public sector.

Source: OECD - Publications  

After an extensive synthesis of the OECD’s existing work on the teaching profession over the years, the need to explore professional roles and identity became obvious. The roles and responsibilities of teachers have seen significant changes over the past decade. Education, childhood, labour markets and society as a whole have experienced considerable changes, prompting the need to think about the effects of changes on the teaching profession. The OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) project on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching project researched how professionalism has evolved, including the importance of working with others to confront increasingly complex contexts, so called “connective professionalism”. Based on the evidence base and ideas for next practice, the project developed a methodology to help diverse stakeholders in education to construct a shared vision on what the teaching profession could look like in the future.

This study in Wales (United Kingdom) is the second in a series of three education system studies conducted in 2023 and 2024. Various stakeholders, including teachers, school leaders, researchers, teacher educators, teacher unions, and professionals (potentially) supporting teachers and schools provided feedback on their ambitions for the future of teaching in Wales. Choosing among a set of ambitions to better connect teachers with other professionals within the school community, other education providers (such as universities and teacher education colleges) and broader society, they shared their judgements of what would be high priority and also how big a change this would be from the current context. Would it be an ambition for transformation over a period of many years? Or would it be possible to build on existing mechanisms or initiatives? Or could this ambition be achieved by improvements over the short term?

Different perspectives were gathered in two main ways. First, via an online survey. Second, via two stakeholder workshops in Bangor and Cardiff where a total of six working groups collectively constructed scenarios for the future of teaching. Each working group comprised individuals with different roles and responsibilities in or around schools. They worked with the results of the survey and selected priority ambitions to support their vision on the future of teaching. These provided stimulus for their discussions, but their specific visions grew out of a mutual exchange of professional experiences from different perspectives within and surrounding teaching in Wales.

Of course, this study in no way aims to be representative or comprehensive. It draws on the work of a group of willing professionals with a stake in Wales education who offered to share their expertise. This initial effort to anticipate and increase deeper, structured thinking about medium- and long-term scenarios for teacher professionalism and empowerment offers input on how to strengthen the teaching profession in Wales. Potential benefits for the system include long-term strategic thinking regarding the Welsh teacher workforce and finding solutions to issues that transcend the short term.

While constructing their scenarios for the future of teaching, stakeholders reflected on four research questions set for this study by the team at Welsh Government in consultation with the OECD.

How do we develop teacher professional identity and a more collaborative profession? The set of future scenarios envisage a focus on collective professional identity at a school level. There would be particular focuses on peer-to-peer interactions as well as school-to-school exchanges. Time and space would be provided to support a variety of exploration that involves building innovations, following passions and interests, engaging in shared learning, working with colleagues, communities and other partners.

How could a career development perspective for all staff in schools contribute to a vibrant and thriving workforce? Career development would be an integral focus to support the workforce. This would include visible and diverse career pathways that follow and invest in career journeys. Teachers would be supported to engage in their own professional growth journey and collaborations that enrich their professional work. Career pathways would allow for flexibility and lifelong learning opportunities that support a dynamic workforce.

How can all who work in schools encourage innovation and the examination of professional roles in schools as learning organisations? Valuing innovative practices requires alignment at all levels to define what innovation looks like at a school level. This includes strengthening collaborative practices that support reflection, experimentation, partnering and sharing. Support includes time and space to work as part of a professional community. It is important to build connections across innovations to reduce duplication of effort and to maximise shared learning.

And how could investment in the professional identity of teachers, especially in secondary schools, make the profession in those settings more attractive? Teachers should be able to align their intrinsic motivation to their teaching, keeping their practice closer to their professional interests and qualities, and having a sense of autonomy in their work. Investing in continuous, bespoke support and professional development enhances teacher well-being, strengthens their professional identity, and makes the teaching profession more attractive and rewarding. Meaningful development opportunities, recognition, and leadership roles enhances the profession’s appeal and fosters long-term commitment.

The OECD identified seven key elements that feature across a set of four preferred future scenarios for the future of teaching in Wales. Arguably, all would be important to the future of teaching and many are common to several of the scenarios. In particular, diverse professional roles and careers, healthy working environment, school leadership, community support/ partnerships, school-university partnerships, innovation and communication feature to some extent across all four scenarios. Governance and accountability were explicitly featured in three scenarios.

The study also underlines the importance of thinking in more nuanced ways about the existing teacher workforce and potential new recruits. There is a rich diversity of professionals working within schools in Wales, with different motivations, life phases, passions, ambitions and professional development needs. An evidence-informed set of seven Welsh teacher personas provides input to stress test the set of future scenarios. What would different teachers find attractive in the future scenarios that were developed? Would it be particularly attractive to experienced teachers? Would newer recruits hold some reservations? Would it match what younger people will be looking for in their working lives? Overall, the Welsh teacher personas responded positively to the suggested scenarios for the teaching profession in Wales.

This report presents results of the initial reflection and provides tools to extend the exercise going forward.

Source: OECD - Publications  

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

Have you ever wondered how you will (still) be conducting research or teaching in 2050? 

The Foresight on Demand consortium (FOD2) invites you to participate in a survey in context to “Demographic change: implications and opportunities for Europe’s R&I system by 2050”.

Your input will help identify weak signals, early trends, and unexpected ideas that could shape research careers, higher education, and innovation systems in Europe by 2050.

Whether you are noticing shifts in work culture, research or teaching models, funding landscapes, please take 10-15 minutes and share your thoughts ! The survey is open until April 18.

VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH is a leading service provider for issues related to innovation and technology. We support and advise during the analysis of complex projects or market situations, during the promotion of research programmes from the German federal government, the German state governments and the EU and organise branch offices or contact offices for research and business. As the project sponsor, we offer the suitable solution for every step of the innovation process.

We work both domestically and abroad for our customers from politics, research, industry and finance. 1,000 employees cooperate in multi-national and interdisciplinary teams. With a total of 10 divisions and nine cross-sectional divisions, we cover a broad-based content spectrum and have at our disposal highly-qualified experts from the natural sciences, engineering, social sciences and business management.

We are located in seven cities: Berlin, Munich, Dresden, Bonn, Hannover, Erfurt and Stuttgart. We are thus in close proximity to the customer.

Europe’s research and innovation (R&I) system is facing new challenges as demographic trends reshape societies, economies, and labour markets. With ageing populations, shifting migration patterns, and evolving skill demands, it is crucial to anticipate how these transformations will impact education, research careers, innovation ecosystems, and funding landscapes.

DG Research & Innovation commissioned a study under the Foresight on Demand (FOD) Framework Contract to explore the implications of demographic change on the EU R&I system. By examining weak signals and trends and exploring future scenarios—including the role of emerging technologies such as AI—the study aims to identify strategic policy options to support a competitive, sustainable, and fair Europe. 

The study provides insights to help policymakers and stakeholders design resilient R&I policies that respond effectively to demographic shifts.

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

This report provides the findings from the ‘Foresight on Demand’ project supporting the Horizon Europe
Mission Board for Healthy Oceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters in its task of defining specific
Mission(s) to be addressed in Horizon Europe. The overarching goal of the project was to support the
reflections of the Mission Board from a forward-looking perspective.

The team of experts was set up by the ‘Foresight on Demand’ consortium to provide the Board with wellversed
expertise in both foresight methodology as well as thematic developments on the future of
oceans and water. The objective was to think along with the board and to stimulate the debates by
raising surprising and challenging issues based on forward-looking analysis and exploration. The project
provided the Mission Board with new information, (systemic) insights and/or alternative future visions
that connect the extremely multi-dimensioned topics tackled by this Mission Board.

The project had started with the scoping phase of identifying focal areas of which results were discussed
in the meeting with the Mission Board. Subsequently, the foresight team explored further future
uncertainties and knowledge gaps via a real-time Delhi survey to stakeholders. The scoping phase
began with the scanning of 33 foresight reports looking towards 2050, foresight databases and news
feeds to address long-term developments and emerging signals of change. In particular, the foresight
expert team developed five focal areas, which were presented to the Mission Board to provide
interconnected insights as well as challenging and provocative ideas to enrich their work. The five focal
areas are summarised in the table below:

After the initial phase of scanning and analysing emerging issues and synthesising the findings into five
focal areas the results were discussed with the Mission Board. In the meeting the discussion led the
Mission Board request the foresight team to continue the foresight work and identify further data and
knowledge gaps related to oceans and waters, the recovery of oceans and waters and their role in
climate change mitigation.

In line with foresight practice as well as with the Mission Board’s explicit desire to involve a wider public,
the study engaged stakeholders via a real-time Delphi method highly suitable to address future
uncertainties. The Delphi method is a structured group communication process, dealing with subjects,
on which often unsure and incomplete knowledge is available, that are judged upon by experts. The
idea is that the respondents can learn from the views of others, without being unduly influenced by the
hierarchies or other societal structures and power relations.
Invitations to the survey were sent to stakeholder groups in different sectors of society, in particular:
research and development, policy, industry and civil society. Approx. 3000 European stakeholders were
invited. The survey platform was open two weeks in February 2020 leading to the total of 238 registered
participants of which 138 finished the survey.

Participants assessed the total of 15 future statements and proposed new ones to be considered by the
Mission Board, in three areas: i) oceans and other water ecosystems, ii) the recovery of healthy oceans
and waters and iii) the role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation. The results of the assessments
presented in mean values are summarised in the following table in each of the three areas.

The findings form the survey can be summarised on each of the areas as follows:

• Oceans and other water ecosystems: In this area, all proposed issues are accepted as
  important but, with the current attitude towards marine and water ecosystems, respondents
  believed that actions will not be sustained properly. The reason for this lack of consistency
  between “right things to do” and what is actually done probably resides in cultural gaps that
  make it difficult to pass from theoretical analyses and legislation to action, with the reversal of
  current trends. Nonetheless, the survey indicates consensus about the adoption of the
  ecosystem approach, recognising that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an
  integral component of ecosystems and emphasizing the need for collaboration between the
  scientific community, the economic sector, policymakers and the public at large.
• The recovery of healthy oceans and waters: In this area, the survey showed a remarkable
  consistency, from all stakeholders, on the actions contributing to healthy oceans and waters.
  This point could almost guarantee the success of the mission as it seems that the society
  understands the enormous contribution of healthy oceans and waters on the planet earth.
  Although the list of what can be achieved in the near future could be endless, the fact that we
  have to include society at large in addressing challenges, should be our first step.
• The role of oceans and waters in climate mitigation: The respondents provided a global
  impression that Europe can be leader in several fields of climate mitigation. If, however, the
  rest of the world is not addressing these efforts of climate mitigation, the role of Europe will not
  have significant impact. There is no single major technological solution that, alone, would curb
  the climate change, a goal that might be achieved by a mix of technologies and regulations, at
  the right geographic scale, and as early as possible. Furthermore, positive and negative
  impacts of each technology have to be assessed carefully as very little is still known on the
  mid-term and long-term impacts of the different technologies available today. Much more
  research and stakeholder cooperation are required to select the right technologies and
  the optimum strategies on time, in order to avoid unmanageable trends.
• Further areas to be explored: Next to the topics proposed by the foresight expert team,
  stakeholders were asked to suggest other topics that should be understood better and acted
  upon in the EU. Three main topics emerged: research and research infrastructure, civil
  society, and corporate social responsibility.

Final remarks and recommendations

The first part of the foresight study led to the descriptions of five possible focal areas for European
innovation action in the realm of oceans and waters: 1. Climate-resilient coastlines, 2. Clean water for
the blue planet, 3. Vital aquatic ecosystems, 4. Open digital twin of oceans and waters, 5. Humans at
sea. All these focal areas have similar magnitudes, notably if we consider an extensive view of "humans
at sea" not only as an island network but as a continuum between a vulnerable and densely populated
low elevation zone and a potentially harmful but also rich coastal ocean. In view of addressing the focal
areas or their elements in the future actions towards sustainable development in Europe, it is worth
prioritising such efforts in relation with the general theory of systems that establishes the hierarchy of
systems in three spheres showing that human activities and economy are nested into natural systems
and must obey their laws. Traditional illustrations of sustainability, however, show only a small overlap
of the three spheres, this overlap representing sustainability.

The real-time Delphi survey confirmed that there is a need for a holistic approach leading to more
structured actions. This is widely recognized but seldom satisfied. Too specific actions, undertaken while
ignoring the behaviour of the rest of the ecosystems, may lead to temporary success but will surely not
improve the overall situation. This calls for enhanced efforts in improving ocean literacy at all levels,
from the scientific community (too focused on reductionistic approaches) to the economic, social and
industrial sectors. Furthermore, the conceptual landscape embracing water ecosystems (linking oceanic
and inland waters) is very fragmented, with the high risk that while fixing specific problems other
problems are created. Hence, we conclude with three recommendations.

1. Adopt a holistic approach for balanced actions that calls for improving water literacy at all
   levels of society.
2. Create networks of interest using a common (not too technical) language embracing water
   ecosystems (including both oceanic and inland waters) to overcome fragmentation in society.
3. Conduct holistic impact assessments and establish monitoring mechanisms of measures
   implemented to fix specific problems to avoid creating in parallel new problems in complex
   ecosystems.

Humans have internal clocks that clock vital biological rhythms. These are innate, but can be positively or negatively influenced by the environment. Daily rhythms are regulated by the “circadian system” (the internal clock).
The circadian system is inextricably linked to the regulation of the sleep-wake rhythm. Disruptions to the circadian system can therefore cause sleep disorders and associated cognitive impairment as well as various health problems. 

How do we humans influence our future by neglecting these rhythms? And what can we individually or as an organisation do to support our rhythmic life? Currently, we are de-synchronising ourselves, our organs and our lives... we are on an unhealthy way. What we need is a future chronobiologically enlightened society. 3 Policy Briefs and a final report describe the state of the art of our knowledge and many options for the future.

The Covid-19 pandemic has shattered our sense of ‘normal’, and amplified uncertainties and issues at the core of what the future may hold. The project ‘After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world’ examined possible futures of 2040 for the EU emerging from the crisis of the pandemic, as possible contexts for EU R&I. The five scenarios described in this report chart different possible post-Covid-19 evolution paths, creating new perspectives on key EU R&I policy issues.

Arctik is a Brussels-based communications agency recognised for its strategic and creative communication capacity in the field of sustainability. Arctik develops tailored public relations and communication strategies that take both objectives and resulting impact into account. We facilitate the creation of communities and networks that contribute towards circulating content, whilst cultivating meaningful dialogues and synergies between influencers and decision-makers.

Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence.
Our team has a strong commitment to sustainability. We incorporate sustainable values into operations Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence. and consider environmental and social factors in every business decision, while encouraging our partners and clients to think circular! Arctik is also registered to obtain the Brussels ‘Enterprise ecodynamique’ label. 

Arctik, as part of Technopolis Group is present in more than 10 countries with 300 consultants originating from +45 countries and speaking +30 languages. This diversity offers a unique perspective on what local-level stakeholders are receptive to. 

Our offices are located in : • Austria • Belgium • Colombia • France • Germany • Ivory Coast • Netherlands • Greece • Portugal • Sweden • Ivory Cost • Colombia • United Kingdom.

Our solutions: Strategy • Messaging and copywriting • Online and offline engagement • Thought-provoking design • Web services • Project Management • Video and animation • Data-driven communication • Events • Social media campaigns & monitoring • Knowledge management and Capitalisation • Media and visibility.

Our expertise: Regional Policy, Circular Economy, Climate Services, Education, Entrepreneurship, Science & Innovation.

Arctik is part of Technopolis |group|
Website www.arctik.eu
LinkedIn linkedin.com/company/arctik/
Bluesky bsky.app/profile/arctik.eu 

Collaborative research on the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for, and embrace the future.

About Futures Consciousness

The futures consciousness concept and scale has been developed by researchers at the Finland Futures Research Centre (University of Turku) and University of Geneva, with help from other contributors. Teach the Future received a grant from the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and the Prince Mohammad bin Fahd University (PMU) to adapt the Scale for use by young people, ages 12-18. The results of that grant are being submitted for publication by the partners. After that, the Scale will be available for use by schools and other organizations that work with youth. The details will be published on this page shortly.
Take the test.
The Five Dimensions of Futures Consciousness are:

• time perspective; the ability to be aware of the past, present and future, as well as the way events follow each other over time
• agency beliefs; basic sense of confidence that an individual has in their own ability to influence the external world
• openness to alternatives; abilities used to critically question commonly accepted ideas and influences an individual’s willingness to consider alternative ways of being and doing
• systems perception; the ability to recognize human and natural systems around us including groups, societies and ecosystems
• concern for others; relates to the degree to which an individual pursues favourable futures for a group beyond themselves
  

Our partners

Teach the Future collaborates with the University of Turku in Finland, the Finland Futures Research Centre and Digital Futures to research and promote the work in the context of education and (young) students. Sanna Ahvenharju, Matti Minkkinen and Fanny Lalot are the research experts that developed the futures consciousness concept and scale. 

Our activities

Teach the Future supports the de velopment of a scale matching the language and level of young people. This project is in collaboration with schools in the Netherlands, Italy, Turkiye, United States, and United Kingdom. And we thank our sponsor the Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd, Center for Futuristic Studies.
Next to this we support the testing. Erica Bol has wo rked with Martin de Wolf of the Master Learning and Innovation at the Fontys University of Applied Sciene. She designed a futures lesson program supporting the Master program and tested if the students futures consciousness improved. The students did a test before and after the lessons program. A paper on the project and results are published in FUTURES issue 12-2022.

It would be short-sighted to assume that we, as humanity, have reached such a level of maturity that our descendants will not find some aspects of our – apparently civilised – everyday life repulsive and sad.
So we asked 60 futurists from around the world: “What will we disgust our descendants with?”
Many of the submitted ideas are already present in public discourse and confirm areas in which we need to change. But we were especially interested in novel barbarisms that humanity is still largely oblivious to.
The study showcases the futurists’ answers grouped into 93 contemporary barbarisms ranked in a public vote according to how eye-opening they are.

From October 2022 to March 2023, we ran a forecasting tournament with a total of 54 questions. Almost all of our forecasting questions were developed in cooperation with 16 different public institutions and ministerial departments. Each institution or department defined its most useful forecasting topics, participated in a workshop to define specific questions with us, and was later provided with the results. This was intended as a proof of concept of one possible approach to incorporating forecasting in public decision-making.

Once defined, our forecasting questions were then posted on a private Metaculus sub-domain (in Czech), where an average of 72 forecasters had the opportunity to address them as they would any other question on Metaculus (median of 18 predictions per user). Throughout the tournament, we produced 16 reports detailing the rationales and forecasts, to be used by the cooperating institutions.
A handful of our partners have already reported acting on the information/judgment presented in our reports. This has concerned, for example, the national foreclosure issue (some 6% of the total population have debts in arrears) where the debt relief process is being redesigned midst strong lobbying and insufficient personal capacities; or the probabilities of outlier scenarios for European macroeconomic development, which was requested by the Slovak Ministry of Finance to help calibrate their existing judgements.

It also seems useful to explore various approaches to grow the number of policymakers with personal experience and skills in forecasting. In our case, we found curiosity and willingness to try forecasting even in unexpected institutional locations (i.e. the Czech R&I funding body). This makes us more confident that the “external forecasts” approach (as compared to building internal prediction tournaments or focusing on advancing forecasting skills of public servants) is worth investigating further precisely because it allows us to detect and draw on this interest irrespective of institutional and seniority distinctions and resource constraints.
While we hope that any readers with an interest in forecasting may find our experience useful, we expect that both this and any future projects of ours make it easier for other teams to work towards similar goals. To that effect, the write-up also contains an Annex of “Methodological Guidelines,” where we outline in more explicit terms the questions and decisions that we found were important to tackle when running the project, and what they may entail.

It would be short-sighted to assume that we, as humanity, have reached such a level of maturity that our descendants will not find some aspects of our – apparently civilised – everyday life repulsive and sad.
So we asked 60 futurists from around the world: “What will we disgust our descendants with?”
Many of the submitted ideas are already present in public discourse and confirm areas in which we need to change. But we were especially interested in novel barbarisms that humanity is still largely oblivious to.
The resulting infographic shows the futurists’ answers grouped into 93 contemporary barbarisms ranked in a public vote according to how eye-opening they are.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company