Last Edited: 7 days ago
Christian Grünwald1
Posted on: 23/10/2026
sorted by publishing date
Last Edited: 23 days ago
Violent radicalisation and extremism are constantly evolving phenomena, significantly shaped by developments in the wider society in which they emerge. In recent years, this evolution has accelerated considerably. We are witnessing a shift from radicalisation centred primarily around ideologies towards increasingly diverse and hybridised forms of individualised radicalisation, in which ideological boundaries have become increasingly blurred. These developments are strongly influenced, on the one hand, by global conflicts and, on the other, by locally experienced grievances and perceived injustices—often simultaneously.
This transformation has created new conditions for the emergence and spread of extremist ideas, while making it increasingly difficult to identify individuals at risk of radicalisation, as well as the issues and narratives that may rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly encourage or inspire engagement in violent extremist activity. This evolving landscape presents a significant challenge to the prevention of violent extremism and further underlines the importance of foresight.
Posted on: 07/10/2026
Last Edited: 23 days ago
Violent radicalisation and extremism are constantly evolving phenomena, significantly shaped by developments in the wider society in which they emerge. In recent years, this evolution has accelerated considerably. We are witnessing a shift from radicalisation centred primarily around ideologies towards increasingly diverse and hybridised forms of individualised radicalisation, in which ideological boundaries have become increasingly blurred. These developments are strongly influenced, on the one hand, by global conflicts and, on the other, by locally experienced grievances and perceived injustices—often simultaneously.
This transformation has created new conditions for the emergence and spread of extremist ideas, while making it increasingly difficult to identify individuals at risk of radicalisation, as well as the issues and narratives that may rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly encourage or inspire engagement in violent extremist activity. This evolving landscape presents a significant challenge to the prevention of violent extremism and further underlines the importance of foresight.
Posted on: 07/10/2026
Last Edited: 22 days ago
The EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation’s first strategic foresight study, commissioned by Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway, examines evolving regional threats, ranging from declining public trust to exclusionary rhetoric. By applying scenario planning, this foundational report provides policymakers and practitioners with actionable tools to strengthen democratic resilience and cross-border prevention strategies.
Posted on: 07/10/2026
Last Edited: 3 months ago
New and emerging plant pests can undermine EU food security and farm/forestry incomes through yield losses, trade disruption and costly control measures, while also causing major environmental impacts through biodiversity loss, landscape change and increased pressure to use pesticides.
Using a comprehensive foresight methodology, this study examines how global trade and tourism, climate change and agricultural systems contribute to the introduction and spread of new and emerging plant pests, assesses current and future pest risks, as well as scientific and technological options for their prevention, detection, and management, and reviews existing EU mechanisms.
The study develops four scenarios up to 2050 to explore how key uncertainties may shape pest risks and system responses. Based on these insights, it identifies policy options to strengthen prevention, preparedness, and response capacities, supporting future EU policymaking.
This foresight study was conducted by Technopolis Group with experts from the Julius Kühn-Institute for the European Parliament's Panel for the Future of Science and Technology and commissioned by Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) of the European Parliamentary Research Service.
The report is published on the website of the European Parliament: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2026)788146.
Posted on: 31/07/2026
Last Edited: 7 months ago
Posted on: 22/03/2026
Last Edited: 8 months ago
The European Union Drugs Agency’s (EUDA) project “Synthetic Drugs 2050” addressed the growing uncertainty surrounding the future availability, spread, and use of synthetic drugs in Europe up to 2050. Synthetic drugs represent a rapidly evolving and systemic challenge for Europe, affecting public health, security, social cohesion, productivity, and overall wellbeing. Accelerated technological change, globalised supply chains, digitalisation, and increasingly blurred boundaries between legal, illegal, controlled, and uncontrolled substances further amplify the complexity of this issue.
The project applied a participatory strategic foresight approach to explore possible futures of synthetic drugs in Europe, moving beyond short-term monitoring and reactive policy responses. By systematically analysing global and regional drivers of change, emerging trends, weak signals, and deep uncertainties, the project built a shared understanding of how synthetic drugs markets, uses, and impacts may evolve in the medium- and long-term.
Through horizon scanning, trend analysis, scenario building, and sense-making activities, Synthetic Drugs 2050 supports EU-level and national stakeholders in anticipating risks, identifying opportunities, and strengthening policy resilience. The project explicitly linked foresight insights to strategic reflection, policy options, and research priorities, while embedding capacity-building components to enhance futures literacy and long-term preparedness within the EU drug policy ecosystem.
Objectives
The Synthetic Drugs 2050 project encompassed:
Outputs
Find more information here: https://www.euda.europa.eu/index_en
Posted on: 18/02/2026
Last Edited: 8 months ago
Curious about how Europe’s demographic trends may transform the R&I landscape?
On 10 December 2025, DG Research & Innovation hosted a hybrid event at the DG RTD Library in Brussels to present the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) study: “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe?”
FOD team members guided the audience through:
👏 A big thank you to the panelists and speakers:
And to all participants for an engaging exchange on how to build a more adaptive and resilient EU R&I system.
In case you missed the event, you can find all the materials below.
Posted on: 27/11/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.
We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.
How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/
Posted on: 11/09/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
What was the challenge?
The Research Council of Norway (RCN) identified five strategic areas in pursuit of ground-breaking research, radical innovation and sustainable development. RCN required a robust evidence base to help develop long-term, priority missions to help solve one or more societal challenges, as well as underpinning structural measures of the research environment in Norway. The five strategic areas include: Oceans; Green transition; Health and welfare; Cohesion and globalisation; and Technology and digitalisation.
How did we approach it?
We adopted a mixed method, participatory approach involving a variety of research tools such as trend analyses, literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, crowdsourcing ideas from experts, a survey of the public, future scenario analyses and workshops.
The core foresight work allowed us to examine what might happen in the next ten years in the different strategic areas and wider R&I system in Norway. Scenarios of future states were used as the basis for workshop discussions to stress test potential missions and structural measures that the RCN could consider developing and implementing in the future.
What was the outcome or impact of the work?
Extensive findings from this research were published in a series of nine reports. The research was cited as evidence in the RCN’s input to the 2022 revision of the Long-Term Plan for Research and Higher Education 2019–2028, which specifies the Norwegian government’s ambitions, key objectives and priority areas for research and higher education.
The study also helped inform the RCN’s internal decision making, strategies and organisational activities. In addition, a summary of the findings and proposals was presented to the relevant Norwegian minister.
Project webpage: https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/2021/future-research-innovation-norway.html
Research outputs:
Posted on: 18/06/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 28/05/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
WE HAVE A SOCIAL MISSION: TO STIMULATE CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES.
We focus on Futures & Foresight (Futures Thinking / Futures Studies & Strategic Foresight), with a specialization in Technology Foresight and ETS, Emerging Technologies Scanning. We are also dedicated to Futures Literacy, which involves the theoretical and practical literacy of Futures Studies and Futures Thinking. Through a Slow Journalism model, we disseminate and promote knowledge of emerging technologies, analyzing their potential impacts on our possible and alternative futures.
Posted on: 26/05/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 14/05/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 09/05/2025
Last Edited: 9 months ago
Healthy and Sustainable Diets, Circularity, Diversity: Pathways in Transition for Resilient European Agriculture and Food Systems in Times of Global Crisis (6th SCAR Foresight)
Explorative scenarios built upon the transition pathways with a deep dive on natural resources - land and water
The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research has a long tradition in the European Commission and represents the link of DG RTDI to the Member States in Agricultural Research. SCAR Foresight and the respective reports can be traced back to discussions and a working group for the European Commission in 2005/2006. On this basis, the first SCAR Foresight was conducted to highlight developments in the agricultural sector, new opportunities and better links to the research system. The areas of SCAR are broad: agriculture and fisheries, food systems, bioeconomy, and forestry.
Until now, five Foresight activities were under way , and the EC and Member States have used Foresight recommendations in planning their research coordination activities established under Horizon Europe (HE).
The 6th SCAR Foresight study is building on the 5th SCAR Foresight study and its transition pathways with adding explorative scenarios to the pathways (opening up the topics of the pathways once more), and linking them to a deep dive on natural resources, land and water. The three main transition pathways identified in the 5th SCAR Foresight were still judged as valid but need to be pursued in a new context. This context is marked by poly- and permacrises and new game changers like high-tech innovations as well as recent geopolitical developments and European political guidelines.
The 6th SCAR Foresight has the general objective of supporting a safe and just transition towards a more sustainable, competitive, and resilient agriculture and food sector including fisheries, forestry and bioeconomy. The EU political guidelines and the new political agenda under the new European Commission are taken into account. Results of the 6th SCAR Foresight will be provided as inputs to the FP10 Work Programme, to the strategic approach to EU agricultural research and innovation and the Food 2030 R&I initiative as well as to any other relevant and upcoming strategies and initiatives, at the national, European as well as at global level.
Posted on: 05/05/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Nearly 300 of the experts in this early 2025 study responded to a series of three quantitative questions, and nearly 200 wrote predictive essays in how the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) systems and humans might affect essential qualities of being human in the next decade. Many are concerned that the deepening adoption of AI systems over the next decade will negatively alter how humans think, feel, act and relate to one another. They predicted whether change will be mostly for the better or for the worse in 12 categories:
Posted on: 05/05/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
By exploring 25 evidence-based potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy helps anticipate challenges and opportunities that could reshape the policy landscape between 2030 and 2050. These disruptions are not predictions, but hypothetical future developments identified through extensive research, expert consultations, and workshops. The Strategic Foresight Toolkit features a five-step foresight process, guiding users to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop actionable plans. It includes facilitation guides and case studies to support effective implementation. Each disruption is accompanied by insights on emerging trends, potential future impacts, and both immediate and long-term policy options to ensure resilience and preparedness. Designed for policymakers, public administrators, and foresight practitioners, this publication is designed to promote holistic, strategic and evidence-informed decision-making. It aims to support countries and organisations in using strategic foresight to design and prepare robust and adaptable public policies for a range of possible futures. With its practical methodology and forward-looking approach, the Strategic Foresight Toolkit is a vital resource for building sustainable, resilient, and effective public policies.
Posted on: 15/04/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future
ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.
Five Pillars of Our Approach
1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.
2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.
3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.
4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.
5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.
Track Record
Posted on: 03/04/2025
Last Edited: 2 years ago
Have you ever wondered how you will (still) be conducting research or teaching in 2050?
The Foresight on Demand consortium (FOD2) invites you to participate in a survey in context to “Demographic change: implications and opportunities for Europe’s R&I system by 2050”.
Your input will help identify weak signals, early trends, and unexpected ideas that could shape research careers, higher education, and innovation systems in Europe by 2050.
Whether you are noticing shifts in work culture, research or teaching models, funding landscapes, please take 10-15 minutes and share your thoughts ! The survey is open until April 18.
Posted on: 25/03/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH is a leading service provider for issues related to innovation and technology. We support and advise during the analysis of complex projects or market situations, during the promotion of research programmes from the German federal government, the German state governments and the EU and organise branch offices or contact offices for research and business. As the project sponsor, we offer the suitable solution for every step of the innovation process.
We work both domestically and abroad for our customers from politics, research, industry and finance. 1,000 employees cooperate in multi-national and interdisciplinary teams. With a total of 10 divisions and nine cross-sectional divisions, we cover a broad-based content spectrum and have at our disposal highly-qualified experts from the natural sciences, engineering, social sciences and business management.
We are located in seven cities: Berlin, Munich, Dresden, Bonn, Hannover, Erfurt and Stuttgart. We are thus in close proximity to the customer.
Posted on: 25/03/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how.
The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.
Posted on: 19/03/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 28/02/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Humans have internal clocks that clock vital biological rhythms. These are innate, but can be positively or negatively influenced by the environment. Daily rhythms are regulated by the “circadian system” (the internal clock).
The circadian system is inextricably linked to the regulation of the sleep-wake rhythm. Disruptions to the circadian system can therefore cause sleep disorders and associated cognitive impairment as well as various health problems.
How do we humans influence our future by neglecting these rhythms? And what can we individually or as an organisation do to support our rhythmic life? Currently, we are de-synchronising ourselves, our organs and our lives... we are on an unhealthy way. What we need is a future chronobiologically enlightened society. 3 Policy Briefs and a final report describe the state of the art of our knowledge and many options for the future.
Posted on: 11/01/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
This is the short English-language Policy Brief from the research project Foresight and Future Generations in Law-Making (FORGE). FORGE examined issues of future-regarding lawmaking in an interdisciplinary manner, combining expertise on futures studies, political science, and jurisprudence. The aim of the study was to analyse the status of future generations and their rights in current legislative processes, and to map and compare practices for foresight and consideration of future generations in different political contexts, nationally and internationally. The purpose of the project was to increase understanding on i) how future generations can be better taken into account in policymaking; ii) how foresight can be better utilised in lawmaking.
The FORGE-project was unique – there had not previously been a study with a similar scope in Finland and comparable international examples are, to the best knowledge of the authors, extremely rare. FORGE supported the preparation of the second part
of the Government Report on the Future. The project was funded by the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities (VN TEAS) and was conducted during 1/2022–11/2022 by researchers of the University of Turku, Åbo Akademi University and Tampere University.
Findings:
From an international comparison, Finland already has an advanced national foresight system and can be regarded as a pioneer in futureregarding policymaking. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of using foresight and considering future generations as a part of lawmaking. Such improvement could be achieved by developing and upgrading the existing institutions and practices and by making more incremental changes in practices, modes of interaction, and attitudes. For example, foresight should be conducted more as a continuous activity, and future generations’ interests and rights should be considered more systematically in legislative processes, while acknowledging the plurality of future interests.
Development proposals:
Full lenght-report available in Finnish
In addition to the 12-page Policy Brief summarising the FORGE projects' finding in English, The Prime Minister's Office has published the full 203-page report in Finnish. This can be found here below.
Posted on: 08/01/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
The research project Foresight and Future Generations in Law-Making (FORGE) examined issues of future-regarding lawmaking in an interdisciplinary manner, combining expertise on futures studies, political science, and jurisprudence. The aim of the study was to analyse the status of future generations and their rights in current legislative processes, and to map and compare practices for foresight and consideration of future generations in different political contexts, nationally and internationally. The purpose of the project was to increase understanding on i) how future generations can be better taken into account in policymaking; ii) how foresight can be better utilised in lawmaking. FORGE’s conceptual and analytical structure is pictured in the figure 1.
The FORGE-project is unique – there has not previously been a study with a similar scope in Finland and comparable international examples are, to the best knowledge of the authors, extremely rare. FORGE supported the preparation of the second part of the Government Report on the Future. The project was funded by the Government’s analysis, assessment and research activities (VN TEAS) and was conducted during 1/2022–11/2022 by researchers of the University of Turku, Åbo Akademi University and Tampere University.
Posted on: 08/01/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 02/01/2025
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 04/12/2024
Last Edited: a year ago
Arctik is a Brussels-based communications agency recognised for its strategic and creative communication capacity in the field of sustainability. Arctik develops tailored public relations and communication strategies that take both objectives and resulting impact into account. We facilitate the creation of communities and networks that contribute towards circulating content, whilst cultivating meaningful dialogues and synergies between influencers and decision-makers.
Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence.
Our team has a strong commitment to sustainability. We incorporate sustainable values into operations Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence. and consider environmental and social factors in every business decision, while encouraging our partners and clients to think circular! Arctik is also registered to obtain the Brussels ‘Enterprise ecodynamique’ label.
Arctik, as part of Technopolis Group is present in more than 10 countries with 300 consultants originating from +45 countries and speaking +30 languages. This diversity offers a unique perspective on what local-level stakeholders are receptive to.
Our offices are located in : • Austria • Belgium • Colombia • France • Germany • Ivory Coast • Netherlands • Greece • Portugal • Sweden • Ivory Cost • Colombia • United Kingdom.
Our solutions: Strategy • Messaging and copywriting • Online and offline engagement • Thought-provoking design • Web services • Project Management • Video and animation • Data-driven communication • Events • Social media campaigns & monitoring • Knowledge management and Capitalisation • Media and visibility.
Our expertise: Regional Policy, Circular Economy, Climate Services, Education, Entrepreneurship, Science & Innovation.
Arctik is part of Technopolis |group|
Website www.arctik.eu
LinkedIn linkedin.com/company/arctik/
Bluesky bsky.app/profile/arctik.eu
Posted on: 27/11/2024
Last Edited: 2 years ago
What could a European energy system that includes hydrogen look like in 2040 in the context of different global, political, economic and social constellations in and around the continent?
Posted on: 25/11/2024
Last Edited: a year ago
Posted on: 19/11/2024
Last Edited: a year ago
The Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) is a public institution with legal personality subordinate to the Ministry of National Education in Romania.
Attributions:
Posted on: 28/10/2024
Last Edited: a year ago
The aim of this study was to serve as one of the inputs to the update and to initiate a discussion on the possibilities of updating the Czech republic 2030 strategy. In order to ensure that this strategic document reflects the dynamic developments on the global and domestic scene, mechanisms for regular reviews and updates of the objectives and measures have been proposed. Given the events of the last 3 years (especially the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine), it is relevant to review the relevance of the assumptions regarding the long-term development of the Czech Republic, which served as the basis for the original wording of the strategic objectives and targeting of the document.
The role of České priority was to provide foresight exercises in order to reach two goals:
The project was implemented in the form of workshops, which were attended by experts and representatives of public institutions and ministries. On the basis of pre-prepared scenarios of development, the participants had to identify the resulting challenges, opportunities and areas that have not yet been covered in the CR 2030. The list of these areas was subsequently consulted with representatives of public institutions. These expert consultations were complemented by input from the general public through a creative competition held in September 2022.
https://www.ceskepriority.cz/foresight#co_je_foresight
Posted on: 26/10/2024