Preamble
Across Europe, the use of foresight for Research and Innovation (R&I) policy is growing, but unevenly. In many places, it still sits at the margins of policymaking, and its full potential—to inspire broader societal change—is not yet realised.

The European R&I foresight community, made up of practitioners, policymakers, researchers, and future-oriented thinkers, is
becoming stronger and more connected. The Eye of Europe project, supported by the European Commission, helps this
community grow through the online hub futures4europe.eu, as well as workshops, conferences and shared learning spaces.

This manifesto stems from a “foresight on foresight” workshop held in Mamaia, Romania (18–19 September 2025), coordinated by UEFISCDI and the Austrian Institute of Technology. 30 foresight practitioners and R&I policy experts from across Europe gathered to imagine how foresight could better support R&I policy and practice. Furthermore, these contents have also been discussed and enriched during Eye of Europe’s final mutual learning event held in Chișinău, Moldova (23–24 October 2025).

This manifesto recognises the growing importance of foresight—not only within European R&I systems but also at the interface between R&I and society—repositioning the field as a driver of inspiration and renewal in shaping Europe’s futures.

Foresight as a Key Social Infrastructure for Europe
Vision 2030 in a nutshell

Research and Innovation (R&I) foresight is a shared space of imagination and inquiry, enabling Europe to live creatively with emergence and diversity. Beyond agenda-setting, it cultivates futures literacy across science, policy, and society — expanding our capacity to sense, interpret, and engage with novelty.

Embracing the open and interdependent nature of the world, foresight complements evidence with creativity and plural ways of knowing. It guides Europe’s research and innovation ecosystems to act with openness, responsibility, and imagination — co-creating sustainable and just futures as a shared public good.

🔵 EXTENDED ROLE OF R&I FORESIGHT
In 2030 R&I foresight enables boundary spanning, connecting sectoral policies, disciplines, and perspectives. Its value lies not only in generating agendas or scenarios, but in reshaping worldviews, reframing challenges, cultivating agency, enabling collective reflection, and inspiring transformative action

🔵 OPEN AND INCLUSIVE SPACES
In 2030 foresight thrives on openness, diversity, and empathy. It creates spaces where people engage not only as experts or institutional actors, but as whole humans— bringing values, worldviews, emotions, and lived experiences into the co-creation of futures.
Trust grows from transparency, fairness, and shared ownership of both processes and outcomes. While AI expands access to knowledge, human judgment, engagement creativity, and responsibility remain essential.

🔵 FUTURES LITERACY AS A FOUNDATIONAL CAPACITY
Futures literacy becomes both a foundation and a legacy of R&I foresight. It strengthens the collective ability to recognise assumptions, navigate uncertainty, and act with intention amid complexity.
Foresight processes evolve into open spaces for learning and experimentation, cultivating anticipatory competence among experts, policymakers, and citizens. Through its practices and communication, R&I foresight contributes to a societal diffusion of futures thinking, enhancing collective intelligence and agency.

🔵 A MATURE COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE
Foresight gains professional depth through dedicated academic programmes and practitioner networks. A wide variety of organisations embed foresight cultures that encourage reflection, experimentation, and communication. Shared infrastructures such as futures4europe.eu evolve into open, dynamic platforms for collaboration, knowledge exchange, and innovation in foresight.

Download the document at the top of the page to read the full version.

After months of development, ForgeFront has recently launched Future.Ctrl, an online course covering futures thinking, forecasting and policy delivery.

In a world in flux, short-term firefighting often takes priority in organisations, in businesses and even in our own lives. In this context, thinking about the future can often feel nebulous and intangible. Measuring progress towards distant horizons can feel less relevant to the here and now. Data to inform long-term decision making can be scarce. Avoiding the perils of institutional ‘group think’ becomes a secondary priority, especially when time is tight.   

Curious about how Europe’s demographic trends may transform the R&I landscape?

On 10 December 2025, DG Research & Innovation hosted a hybrid event at the DG RTD Library in Brussels to present the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) study: “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe?”

FOD team members guided the audience through:

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding.
• A six-step Foresight Process combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges.
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system.
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, foster lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology.

👏 A big thank you to the panelists and speakers:

• Erik Canton (Deputy Head of Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Nicola Francesco Dotti (Chief Economist Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Brikena Xhomaqi (The Lifelong Learning Platform)
• Alex Petropoulos (Centre for Future Generations)
• Thomas Estermann (European University Association)
• Maciej Krysztofowicz (EU policy Lab, Joint Research Centres)
• Viola Peter (FOD team, Technopolis Group)
• Michal Nadziak (FOD team, 4CF)
• Katarzyna Figiel (FOD team, 4CF)

And to all participants for an engaging exchange on how to build a more adaptive and resilient EU R&I system.

Missed the event? Explore the below documentation !

Sustainability in the Post-Global Era

In the aftermath of decades of global integration, the model of hyperconnected markets is showing signs of retreat. Geopolitical instability, trade disputes, and resource scarcity are catalysing a structural shift that could reshape not only economies, but the very principles underpinning sustainability. Drawing from trend intelligence by Nextatlas, two pivotal developments emerge, developments that invite foresight professionals to rethink sustainability not as a static ideal, but as a dynamic field responsive to systemic transformation.

The post-global era is not simply a reconfiguration of trade routes or supply chains; it marks a fundamental reframing of what society deems “sustainable.” In a world where inflation, scarcity, and volatility dominate headlines, environmental goals are becoming increasingly intertwined with economic and geopolitical concerns. 

Nowhere is this reframing more evident than in the European Union, which has positioned itself as a global leader in linking sustainability with regulatory and economic frameworks. Through initiatives such as the European Green Deal, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and stricter ESG reporting standards, the EU is setting benchmarks that extend far beyond its borders and reshape how sustainability is understood in practice.

Nextatlas’ foresight model suggests a pivot: environmental degradation is no longer perceived as the singular sustainability threat. Instead, resource access, economic resilience, and supply chain transparency are becoming the new fault lines. This conclusion is grounded in more than a decade of Nextatlas’ machine learning work in cultural trend forecasting, built on a proprietary pipeline that ingests millions of data points each month from over 300,000 carefully selected sources, including social media users, niche influencers, scientific literature, design portfolios, and startup ecosystems. 

Through natural language processing, semantic clustering, and visual analysis, these unstructured signals are structured into a dynamic semantic knowledge graph of thousands of interconnected micro-trends. By identifying early adopters with a demonstrated history of trend foresight, the model captures weak signals and emergent cultural dynamics before they reach the mainstream. With a 93% accuracy rate in trend prediction, this methodology provides a robust foundation for understanding the evolution from ecological awareness as individual virtue to sustainability as collective infrastructure.

The Wasteless Economy
The intentional rejection of overconsumption

What was once framed as consumer minimalism is evolving into a more resilient, system-conscious behaviour: the Wasteless Economy. As global citizens face the tangible consequences of rising costs and diminished availability, consumption habits are adjusting accordingly. But unlike past recessions where thrift was reactive, today’s restraint is increasingly proactive and value-driven. In this new context, value is redefined by longevity, utility, and purpose. Careful selection, durability, and circular practices now consciously outweigh constant acquisition.

This transformation has implications beyond market dynamics. It reflects a recalibration of what constitutes value and well-being in an era of systemic constraint. The Wasteless Economy aligns closely with long-term sustainability goals, emphasising durability, circularity, and resource efficiency, not just as ethical choices, but as strategies for social and economic stability. Amid persistent inflation and renewed tariffs on consumer goods, households are tightening their belts and are naturally drawn to buying less, buying smarter, and investing in lasting value. 

Feeling the squeeze of both rising operational costs and evolving regulations, businesses are pivoting toward circular models, designing for durability, repairability, and reuse, not for sustainability branding, but as a smart financial strategy. Circular design reduces exposure to volatile supply chains and tariff-prone imports, while reinforcing consumer loyalty through accountability.

This shift is most visible in food & beverage, fashion, and retail, industries where overproduction and disposability once defined the norm. Food companies must now design out surplus, embracing precision, seasonality, and resourcefulness as new standards of value. In fashion, longevity and modularity are replacing trend cycles, with resale and repair moving from fringe to fundamental. Retailers, in turn, are being called to transform from providers of endless choice into curators of care, offering fewer but better options that align with the values of restraint and longevity.

For foresight practitioners, the shift underscores a key signal: in strained environments, sustainability flourishes not through moral appeal but through necessity. Efforts to design policy or governance around future-proofed systems must therefore centre not only on carbon metrics, but also on material longevity, repair ecosystems, and new models of sufficiency.

As innovation has a profound impact on many aspects of political, economic, social, and
geostrategic environment worldwide, the Region of Central Macedonia closely follows the
developments, trends and variables that favor and support it or negatively affect its development.
Stakeholders, private and public sector executives and citizens, explored through a
participatory and dynamic process (Thematic Participatory Workshop) the variables that will
affect the innovation and entrepreneurship environment of the region by 2040, identified their
dynamics and evaluated their interaction. The findings were the input of the working group
for the development of five scenarios that will determine the future of innovation in Central
Macedonia over the next fifteen years. Building upon scenario-driven insights, seven strategic
policy recommendations have been formulated to systematically strengthen regional resilience
mechanisms and prepare communities for diverse conditions across different alternative
futures (five scenarios): Development, Collapse, Transformation and Discipline.
The seven examined Megatrends that directly or indirectly affect the region and may affect
innovation developments are Climate Change & Environmental Degradation, Resource
Depletion, the Demographic Problem, Urbanization and Growth of the Middle Class,
Technological Explosion, Hyperconnectivity and Cybersecurity, the Dawn of the Global
South and Polarization. Digital transformation, changes in the employment model, digital
nomads, the rise of populist parties and woke agendas, trust in institutions, urban farming, a
shift in urban agriculture, pressure on social welfare systems and the health sector, geopolitical
turmoil, brain drain, crowdfunding, tightening of the legislative framework for the protection of
intellectual rights and personal data, strict environmental regulations and greenwashing will
be some of the effects of these forces.

In a narrow context, scanning the future identified four Drivers of Change that have a significant
impact on the area of innovation and require the attention of policymakers: (a) Political Unrest
and Confused Democracy, (b) Employment 4.0: Transition to new work conditions, (c) The
Era of Convergence: Digital Superiority and Skills, and finally (d) Social Values as a Lever
for Legislative Change."
However, the innovative environment in the future can be identified through a wide range of
scenarios. The need to develop a set of distinct scenarios led to the study of uncertainties
that affect the environment in an unpredictable way, interact with each other drastically and
play a key role in understanding the conditions that will be created in the future of innovation
in the region, and in choosing five uncertainties that their developments over time define the
futures we chose, as most likely to shape the innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem in
the region of Central Macedonia. The five Uncertainties highlighted by the working group are:
[1] Political and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Buckle up, turbulence expected
[2] Business Uncertainty: Anticipated Outcomes and Corporate Transformations
[3] Regulatory Frameworks for Innovation: Ethics Considerations, Strategic Directions
and Development
[4] Navigating the Era of Disconnection: Addressing Workplace Loneliness and Social
Uncertainty [5] The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism.

This study was realized for the Region of Central Macedonia, GR and was co-funded from the European Union (ΕΣΠΑ 2021-2027)

The Eye of Europe project conducted a pilot workshop focused on Aging and Assisted Living Technologies (AALT) to examine their potential impact on European society and research and innovation (R&I) policy, particularly in the context of demographic changes such as aging populations and increased chronic health issues. The workshop aimed to anticipate the societal and policy implications of integrating smart and digital technologies into assisted living and care for older adults. Using the futures wheel method, participants explored future developments across three main areas: institutional long-term care, home-based care, and the inclusion of individuals with special needs in the workplace. The workshop was structured around three future assumptions for the year 2035, envisioning that AALT will become standard practice in long-term care facilities, widely used in private households, and successfully integrated in workplaces to support employees with special needs. Through this anticipatory approach, the workshop identified overarching effects of AALT on society and highlighted the importance of these technologies in shaping future policy and innovation strategies. This workshop was part of a broader series of foresight pilots designed to engage diverse stakeholders, test foresight methodologies, and contribute lessons to the Eye of Europe community and its online foresight platform. The attached report summarizes the results of the workshop and discusses the findings in the context of Europe R&I policy.

In today’s volatile and interdependent world, uncertainty is not a temporary disruption. It is a defining feature. Strategic foresight has become a critical capability for navigating complexity, enabling decision-makers to anticipate change, surface emerging risks, and imagine alternative futures. At this inflection point, Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a profound augmentation to how we conduct foresight, but not a replacement. In this context, the Policy Foresight Unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service has recently published “Augmented foresight: The transformative power of generative AI for anticipatory governance ”.

Let’s be clear. AI cannot foresee the future. It does not reason with intent or understand human values. What it can do is dramatically increase our speed, scale, and scope in making sense of potential futures, if used judiciously and critically.

The cognitive extension of human futures thinking

Generative AI can be understood as a cognitive prosthetic, a tool that extends human perception, memory, and pattern recognition. LLMs excel at identifying latent patterns in unstructured data, surfacing weak signals, and generating coherent narratives based on probabilistic inference. These capacities are particularly useful in exploratory foresight, where practitioners seek to widen the aperture of plausible futures. That is why, at 4CF we have created 4CF Sprawlr - the next-generation AI-powered debate and ideation platform designed to transform the way we brainstorm, strategize, and make decisions, as well as to challenge the assumptions of participants.

Moreover, during horizon scanning, LLMs can process thousands of documents across domains in real-time, clustering insights, filtering noise, and flagging emergent issues. This ability to synthesize vast and diverse information ecosystems supports faster and more responsive foresight cycles. But raw data synthesis is not foresight. True anticipatory intelligence requires contextual judgment, ethical discernment, and interpretive framing, capacities that remain uniquely human.

Narrative construction and scenario intelligence

Scenario planning, a cornerstone of foresight, benefits from AI in powerful ways. GenAI can help identify key drivers, test interdependencies, and co-develop scenarios that are internally consistent and plausibly disruptive. When used in parallel (“AI swarms”), different models can triangulate and refine assumptions, improving narrative robustness.
From a cognitive science perspective, LLMs excel at narrative generation because human cognition is fundamentally narrative-driven. We make sense of complex information by constructing stories, and AI's narrative fluency can mirror and support this innate process. However, plausibility does not equal probability or desirability, and this is where human oversight is critical.
Moreover, GenAI can model second- and third-order effects, encouraging deeper exploration of cascading impacts. But it struggles with ambiguity and values-laden trade-offs, areas where human foresight is indispensable.

New frontiers

One of the most intriguing applications of GenAI in foresight is the use of generative agents, simulated personas capable of expressing realistic, contextually grounded responses. These tools can be embedded in scenario narratives to create dynamic, dialogical futures. Emerging research shows that synthetic respondents can replicate human survey responses with high fidelity in controlled environments. They enable simulations of behavioral dynamics in policymaking, urban planning, or public health where direct access to participants is limited. Yet, the epistemic status of these agents remains debated. Are they truly proxies for human complexity, or merely statistical echoes? Their outputs must be seen as exploratory artifacts, not empirical evidence, informing, but not determining, foresight conclusions.

Bias, blind spots, and the illusion of objectivity

Despite their capabilities, LLMs come with significant epistemological risks. Their training data is historically bounded and socioculturally skewed. Without critical intervention, they risk amplifying dominant worldviews and suppressing marginalized perspectives, exactly the opposite of what good foresight should do. This reinforces what foresight scholars have long argued: that the future is not a neutral space, but one shaped by power, values, and competing imaginaries. AI outputs can reflect and reproduce systemic biases unless de-biased through intentional prompt design, algorithmic transparency, and participatory governance frameworks.

Moreover, the fluency of LLM-generated text can create a false sense of authority, leading to overreliance or reduced critical engagement. Practitioners must remain reflexive and iterative, treating AI outputs as inputs for dialogue, not doctrine.

Augmented intelligence, not artificial intuition

There’s a philosophical tension at the heart of this conversation. Foresight is not merely an analytical process, it is also a normative, imaginative, and ethical act. It involves asking: What kind of future do we want? Whose futures are we considering? What trade-offs are we willing to make? Generative AI does not possess values. It does not dream, hope, or fear. These are deeply human faculties, and they are essential to meaningful foresight. That said, when used well, GenAI can be a strategic co-pilot: accelerating discovery, enabling richer scenario exploration, and expanding access to foresight methods across disciplines and organizations.

Co-evolving with the machine

In sum, the integration of GenAI into foresight practice should be viewed not as a technological leap, but as a sociotechnical evolution. The most effective foresight processes will be those that combine human insight, ethical reasoning, and narrative richness with the analytic power and generative capabilities of AI. To paraphrase a growing sentiment: the future will not be written by AI alone, but by humans who know how to work with it wisely. The real promise of GenAI lies in partnership, not replacement. Because while AI may help us see further, it is still up to us to choose the path, interpret the terrain, and navigate uncertainty with courage, care, and imagination.

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies has a long history and proven track-record of working with corporations and organisations worldwide, applying strategic foresight to specific societal and business challenges.

These are our 10 principles for strategic foresight that serves as the foundation for how we approach strategic foresight as a discipline. We have compiled and refined the principles from our own extensive experience, as well as drawn inspiration from other thinkers and practitioners within the field. Organisations with a culture of strategic foresight fare better. However, every
strategic foresight project is different, and should be based on its own specific context, premises and objectives. Some are large-scale, deeply integrated into the organisation, while others are more lightweight and ad hoc. 

Large-scale and comprehensive setups are not necessarily needed to benefit and learn from strategic foresight, and every organisation or team is capable of developing simple processes that give them the ability to better anticipate the future.
Situation should define approach.

The introduction of a new technology is never an isolated event and never concerns only one market or one domain. There are invariably socio-cultural, political, economic, and environmental implications, as well as impacts, influences, “cross-pollination”, and correlations among different technologies.

The very broad definition of technology itself betrays its intrinsic complexity: a vast field of research involving various technical and scientific disciplines, which examines the application and use of everything that can serve to solve problems. The term “technology” also refers to the aggregate of knowledge, skills, and tools used to design, create, and utilise objects, processes, systems, or services to meet human needs.

An emerging technology, in particular, is one that is radically new and relatively fast-growing technology [it is not necessarily exponential, as the common dialectics of recent years have conditioned us to expect, yet this has little to do with the mathematical concepts of exponentiality; rapid growth does not imply exponentiality]. It is characterised by a certain degree of coherence (or consistency) that persists over time and has the potential to have a substantial impact on the socio-economic-political domains (understood as the players, institutions, and models of interactions between them, as well as all the processes of knowledge production associated with these domains).

Its most significant impact lies in the future and thus in the emergency phase: an emerging technology is still quite uncertain and ambiguous. For this reason, it would be prudent to analyse its potential impacts in a timely manner, to avoid getting trapped in Amara’s Law.

This guide aims to provide a simple tool for policy practitioners to start navigating the foresight discipline and help foster foresight thinking in policy teams and organizations.

It does not intend to present a set of last-generation methodologies. Instead, this guide offers some simple tools and techniques of proven effectiveness that can be used by non-expert personnel. Nevertheless, simplicity is not equivalent to a lack of rigour, so the guide proposes a complete foresight process, starting with driver identification and scenario-building and ending with preparing and monitoring subsequent policies. Available at https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1960

Summary

Core Themes
The book reimagines humanity’s future through planetary foresight, blending historical wisdom with planetary stewardship. It critiques linear Western progress narratives and advocates for a hybrid, cyclical vision of history, emphasizing pluralistic identities and reverence for life.

Structural Framework
Organized into thematic sections, the work begins with “The Mysterious Lord of Time,” challenging linear temporality and introducing non-linear, culturally diverse historical perspectives. “Evolving Belief Systems” contrasts Indo-Iranic, Mesopotamian, and Hellenic thought with Abrahamic traditions, highlighting ancient influences on modern pluralism.

Imagination and Futures
The “Histories of Imagination” section explores myth and storytelling as drivers of civilization, while “Scenarios of Future Worlds” applies foresight methodologies to geopolitical and technological evolution, emphasizing ecological consciousness. The final chapters expand to cosmic intelligence and ethics, framing humanity’s role within universal interconnectedness.

Ethical Vision
Central to the thesis is a call for planetary identity and stewardship, merging forgotten wisdom traditions with modern foresight to navigate ecological and technological uncertainties. The book positions itself as both a philosophical guide and practical framework for ethical transformation in an era of global crises.

Key Argument
Motti asserts that humanity is transitioning from a “Second Nomad Age” (characterized by fragmentation) toward a “Second Settlement Age” marked by planetary consciousness, requiring creative complexity and ethical vigilance.

For years, the world has been described as being in a state of perma-crisis. As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is strongly affected by the political and economic environment in which it operates. This is why it is important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and the challenges it will face, ultimately making the organization and its staff more resilient.

With its broad network of staff and international experts in over 120 partner countries, GIZ is well equipped to monitor and differentiate relevant signals and developments. At headquarters, a dedicated foresight team addresses future issues at a corporate level and contributes to the company's strategic decision-making.

GIZ’ foresight report 2024

Sustainable development is GIZ’s core business. The 2030 Agenda provides the framework for GIZ’s global activities. As the year 2030 is getting closer, the question is: will the negotiations on a new agenda be successful? But one thing is clear: any negotiation process and subsequent implementation will be increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. This is why, the 2024 foresight report of GIZ, focuses on geopolitics, sustainable development and the global agenda for the next decade.

In total, the views of more than 100 GIZ colleagues from GIZ's HQ and the field structure were incorporated into the report through various workshops. In addition, the report is based on extensive analysis of secondary sources, and interviews with more than 30 experts from various (international) institutions to ensure that the report also reflects perspectives from outside GIZ.

The scenarios (strongly condensed for this post) are based on the four archetypes of the Manoa School of Futures Studies and Jim Dator, which represent four recurring paths of human civilization found in all cultures. Each scenario is supplemented by two to three short wildcards, some of which are listed here as examples.

This report explores the transformative potential of Key Enabling Technologies in addressing
emerging security challenges within the European Union. By conducting foresight analysis, the report
evaluates technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced sensing, blockchain, and drones,
highlighting their ability to enhance law enforcement and critical infrastructure resilience, and fighting
crime and terrorism, while exposing vulnerabilities, such as misuse by criminal actors or regulatory
gaps.
The findings emphasise the need for proactive EU policies to both support technology transformation
and mitigate risks, including strategic investments in secure innovation, legal harmonisation, and
addressing societal resilience. This report aligns with the Commission’s 2024–2029 priorities,
supporting a prosperous, secure, and resilient Europe through actionable insights into emerging
security challenges. The recommendations aim to foster effective public-private collaborations,
ensure regulatory coherence across Member States, and promote technological solutions that balance
security needs with ethical and societal values, reinforcing the EU’s position as a leader in sustainable,
innovation-driven policy-making in internal security. 

This video introduces viewers to the Delphi method, a tool of futures research and foresight. Although it gets its name from the ancient Greek oracle, the modern incarnations of the method are powered by technology. Even so, the difficulties of reaching consensus and the influence of group dynamics on rational argumentation remain. If you are participating in a Delphi process, this video is an essential introduction to the method.

This video is third part of a series of videos introducing foresight workshop methods for the Eye of Europe project funded by the EU.

The study concerns the development of 4 Scenarios for 2040, for 5 Balkan cities: Thessaloniki, Nicosia, Skopje, Sofia, Tirana.

The research team identifies the factors that influence the development of these cities and highlights those that shape the urban future, identifying both the key challenges that cities will have to face and the forces they can proactively harness and build their desired future.

All scenarios present plausible future images of the above cities including references to their environmental status for 2040, as well as information on the specific air quality challenges.

The development of the scenarios took place in the framework of the European project AIRTHINGS (funded by the Interreg programme). It was implemented by a project team involving Helenos Consulting and the UNESCO Chair on Futures Research (ITE/PRAXI).

What if education wasn’t controlled by institutions but shaped by learners, communities, and technology? Using backcasting, I explored a future where learning is decentralized, open, and driven by collaboration—and mapped the steps to get there.

This vision is inspired by discussions between Sara Skvirsky (IFTF Research Director) and Katherine Prince (VP of Foresight & Strategy, KnowledgeWorks), as well as the 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning - a report that, even today, feels like a glimpse into what’s coming.

🔹 How do we get there?

- From institutional control to collective intelligence
- From passive learning to a culture of creation
- From centralized credentials to peer-validated knowledge
- From rigid curriculums to dynamic, adaptive education

🎥 Watch the short film exploring this future!

This movie is a way of connecting three domains that bring me joy currently:
- Strategic Foresight
- Spirituality
- AI
One of the goals is to draw attention to Foresight as one of the Top 5 cutting-edge skills identified in the UN 2.0 agenda, a plan that helps organizations prepare for the future.

I adapted the Scenario Planning method to explore three possible futures and bring them to life through cinematic storytelling.
The film also introduces two trained characters, Lina and Arun, within each scenario, making the movie less formal and more engaging.

I also wanted to show how AI can:
- Serve as a bridge between ideas and skills from different fields.
- Help us discover new aspects of human potential.

This movie isn’t flawless or complete - I’m not a filmmaker, and that’s okay. Its beauty lies in its imperfection, reminding us that sometimes, taking the step to create is more important than getting it perfect. 

Later Edit: The film EXPLORING FUTURES: SCENARIO PLANNING IN COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS was included in the non-competition program of the International "Cartoons about the Future Festival," dedicated to films created with the help of AI. It was screened five times during the event, held on March 28-30, 2025, at the Atom Pavilion at VDNkH, Moscow. The festival, organized by the ATOM Foundation for the Promotion of Scientific, Educational, and Communication Initiatives in collaboration with the Big Cartoon Festival team, featured free screenings of short and full-length animated films over three days, offering audiences a diverse selection of forward-thinking works.

OECD has released the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy, designed to help policymakers anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.

By exploring 25 potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Toolkit equips governments with a practical, five-step foresight methodology to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop future-ready policies. It includes facilitation guides, case studies, and actionable insights to support resilience in an uncertain world.

COVID-19 has led to a global public health crisis and changed the course of lives for billions with ensuing social and economic damage. A foresight study was commissioned by the European Commission DG RTD in June 2020 that used Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in the domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. Using expert responses to the survey, the points of consensus and the areas of divergence (uncertainties) were analysed, and five plausible 'exit scenarios' were developed. The report draws conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.

Link to the report: http://doi.org/10.2777/293413

This is a synthesis report based on 130+ interviews conducted as part of the Strategic Foresight for Sustainability (SF4S). The synthesis report concludes the project’s Work Package 2, led by Finland Futures Research Centre, which had as a central objective to identify “key skills and good practices on the basis of interviews with the key community actors”.

Nine SF4S consortium partners – DKSD, EDC, EDHEC, FFRC, GEA, HMKW, ISPIM, IZT, and TalTech - carr ied out 91 interviews in situ or via digital communication channels from September 2022 to March 2023. In addition, 47 interviewees or discussants participated via focus group discussions (November 2022) and a public webinar (January 2023). 

The interviews map out sustainability, digitalisation, and foresight skills and practices in organisations around Europe with an emphasis on the project’s three target clusters: Agri-food, Health, and Mobility. In addition to industry representatives, experts in foresight, policy, consulting, and education have contributed their views to the project. 

For more information on the report, see the project website.