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    Linking futures thinking, probability-based forecasting and decision-making: FutureCtrl methodology

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    After months of development, ForgeFront has recently launched Future.Ctrl, an online course covering futures thinking, forecasting and policy delivery.

    In a world in flux, short-term firefighting often takes priority in organisations, in businesses and even in our own lives. In this context, thinking about the future can often feel nebulous and intangible. Measuring progress towards distant horizons can feel less relevant to the here and now. Data to inform long-term decision making can be scarce. Avoiding the perils of institutional ‘group think’ becomes a secondary priority, especially when time is tight.   

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    Defending against this mindset is what our Future.Ctrl online course is all about. Delivering positive futures in a time of global uncertainty and massive technological change makes it all the more important.

    Future.Ctrl shows how we translate futures and foresight into real-world delivery. Our online course provides an actionable and practical toolkit based on the methodology we have successfully used with governments and organisations around the world to deliver positive futures. It encourages learners to approach the future with curiosity, drawing on creative, comparative and critical ways of thinking to explore what might come next.

    Future.Ctrl methodology

    ForgeFront has developed a new futures technique that combines (i) futures thinking, (ii) probability-based quantitative forecasting, and (iii) decision-making.

    In a novel six-step methodology, it uses SuperforecastersⓇ from Good Judgment Inc to forecast the probability of scenario-based events via forecasting questions. A framework for decision makers is then established to select actions if a forecasted probability exceeded a forecasted threshold (e.g. 50% likelihood by 2050).

    This enables decision-makers to:
    -> Supercharge preparedness by pre-agreeing actions before a threshold has been passed;
    -> Move more quickly when crisis hits (as decisions have already been made);
    -> Ready delivery partners in advance;
    -> Make better choices during ‘steady state’ moments, rather than poor ones during times of crisis.

    Overall, decision-makers gain an understanding of the futures they might experience over a given time horizon, quantitative data about the likelihood of events and possible actions.

    Future.Ctrl online course overview

    Following the technique’s successful implementation across governments and organisations, we developed an online course to enable individuals, policymakers and foresight practitioners to replicate this methodology and connect futures thinking, forecasting, and policy design.

    You’ll learn how to:
    - Anticipate and stress-test future risks and opportunities
    - Build actionable, evidence-based strategies
    - Design policy recommendations that actually get implemented
    - Link long-term foresight to short-term decisions with clarity and rigour

    The course is packaged into 8 modules and 46 lessons you can access at your own pace; expect:
    ✅ Practical ‘how to’ guides, video tutorials and real-world case studies
    ✅ Hands-on exercises, consolidation quizzes and downloadable resources
    ✅ Future.Ctrl Foundation Accreditation, complete with a certificate.

    Get in touch if you would like to know more or hear directly from ForgeFront’s Directors, Gavin Moore or Sam Douglas-Bate, and their experience advising UK government.

    Available now exclusively at our new website https://forgefront.co.uk/online-course

     

    Foresight Methods

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