Violent radicalisation and extremism are constantly evolving phenomena, significantly shaped by developments in the wider society in which they emerge. In recent years, this evolution has accelerated considerably. We are witnessing a shift from radicalisation centred primarily around ideologies towards increasingly diverse and hybridised forms of individualised radicalisation, in which ideological boundaries have become increasingly blurred. These developments are strongly influenced, on the one hand, by global conflicts and, on the other, by locally experienced grievances and perceived injustices—often simultaneously.

This transformation has created new conditions for the emergence and spread of extremist ideas, while making it increasingly difficult to identify individuals at risk of radicalisation, as well as the issues and narratives that may rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly encourage or inspire engagement in violent extremist activity. This evolving landscape presents a significant challenge to the prevention of violent extremism and further underlines the importance of foresight.

The EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation’s first strategic foresight study, commissioned by Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway, examines evolving regional threats, ranging from declining public trust to exclusionary rhetoric. By applying scenario planning, this foundational report provides policymakers and practitioners with actionable tools to strengthen democratic resilience and cross-border prevention strategies.

Aiming to build on existing early warning mechanisms across the EU institutions, agencies and bodies, the ESPAS horizon scanning project has a two-fold goal. On the one hand, to establish a rolling process to produce reports that engage colleagues across the ESPAS institutions and bodies in a continuous, longer-term, cross-cutting reflection around emerging and potential future trends. On the other hand, to create an EU community of practitioners and experts (‘future scanners’) able to identify and inform about emerging signals of change.


This is the 11th report from the ES PAS horizon scanning process which looks at “signals of change” - emerging trends and
issues – that appear to be marginal today but could become important for the EU in the future. From the 13 signals of
change presented below, three emerging issues were perceived as potentially most impactful by policymakers: Copyright self, Strategic institutional ignorance and Weponisation of visual data.

In our conference contribution we explore the idea of the generative ouroboros—the automated autophage—in application to foresight. Foresight is by definition a participatory activity and made by humans. In our futures exhibition we try out what happens if we make scenarios about AI with AI.

Together with the visitors to our exhibition, we want to find out how AI influences and changes foresight practice. Does AI increase the plausibility of future scenarios or decrease human expertise and participation?

Will AI render foresight practice irrelevant altogether—substituting for human expertise, imitating human intuition and making participation unnecessary? Or will AI help to improve foresight processes—through better design, more efficient organisation, or more creative future scenarios?

We invite you to visit our futures exhibition “Generative Ouroboros: A Futures Exhibition of AI-Generated Radical Alternatives of AI” taking place on 30th September, from 19:00 to 21:00 as a side event at the Futures4Europe conference and to explore not only AI generated future scenarios but to discuss together with us the role of AI in future foresight practice!

You can start by asking yourself whether this blog was written by a person or by an AI! And would you have interpreted it the same way, before asking yourself this question?

We look forward to seeing you at our AI futures exhibition and to discussing the automated autophage further with you! 

I am an evaluation consultant based in Cambridge, UK. My work straddles the field of evaluation methodologies and foresight practices, including both participatory and hybrid human-AI informed approaches. For more information on my own background see https://richardjdavies.wordpress.com/

We are living through a transition that feels, at once, like collapse and awakening. The crises surrounding us—ecological breakdown, technological acceleration, geopolitical fragmentation—are often treated as separate problems. But they are not. They are symptoms of a deeper rupture: a failure in how we perceive reality itself.

This is the beginning of the “Big Shift.” Not merely a historical turning point, but a transformation in consciousness. The dominant frameworks through which humanity has understood itself—nation, progress, even “humanity” as a unified moral subject—are no longer sufficient. They fragment under pressure because they were never grounded in the deeper fabric of existence. They abstracted us from the Earth, from each other, and ultimately from being itself.

Long before modern crises, ancient traditions understood something we have forgotten: the Earth is not an object. It is a living, sacred reality. Early liturgical texts and cosmologies did not separate matter from meaning. To speak of the Earth was already to speak of order, of balance, of participation in a larger whole. This was not “ecology” in the modern scientific sense—it was a lived metaphysics.

What has been lost is not knowledge in the narrow sense, but a way of knowing. The modern world, in its pursuit of control and clarity, reduced reality to what can be measured, extracted, and optimized. Technology is not the root problem; it is an extension of this perception. We did not simply build machines—we built a worldview that sees the world as machine.

And so we arrive at a strange paradox: we speak constantly of “saving humanity,” yet we do not even know what “humanity” means. It is an abstraction, a moral placeholder, often detached from real conditions and embedded inequalities. In trying to center humanity, we displaced the Earth. And in doing so, we undermined the very conditions that make human life possible.

A different orientation is needed. Not a rejection of humanity, but a re-centering within a larger field of existence. To love the Earth is not a poetic gesture—it is an ethical necessity. It means recognizing that harm to ecosystems is not external damage but a form of self-destruction. It means reframing ethics from human-centered to Earth-centered, from domination to participation.

This is where the future becomes most uncertain—and most significant. Artificial intelligence and emerging technologies are often framed in terms of capability and risk. But the deeper question is ontological: what kind of intelligence are we creating? If intelligence is participation, then ethical design requires more than safeguards—it requires alignment with the structures of reality itself.

We stand, then, at a threshold. The path forward is not a return to the past, nor a blind leap into technological futurism. It is a synthesis—a planetary civilization that draws from ancient wisdom while engaging modern knowledge. A civilization that recognizes the plurality of perspectives without losing sight of underlying unity.

This requires new forms of leadership, new frameworks of foresight, and a redefinition of progress. Not growth for its own sake, but alignment with the conditions that sustain life and meaning.

Ultimately, the future is not something we predict. It is something we participate in. Every action, every perception, contributes to the unfolding of reality. The question is not whether change is coming—it is whether we are capable of aligning with it.

To become planetary beings is not to transcend the Earth, but to belong to it fully. To act with awareness that we are not separate observers, but active participants in a living, dynamic cosmos.

The shift has already begun. The only question is whether we recognize it—and whether we are willing to follow it to its conclusion.

HorizonX is an integrated consulting ecosystem, combining expertise in strategy, foresight, innovation and leadership. We bring together decades of execution excellence and forward-looking intelligence, helping organizations prepare for the future and accelerate transformation in a sustainable way.

From our hubs in Vienna, London, and Bucharest, we leverage the combined expertise of a multidisciplinary network operating in over 20 countries. With a legacy of over 25 years through our founding partners, we deliver complex, large-scale transformations across the EMEA region.

Numerous foresight studies have highlighted the need for a dietary transition to achieve a sustainable and healthy future, by reducing the consumption of animal-based foods and ultra-processed foods and increasing that of pulses, fruit and vegetables. However, the path to achieving this remains unclear, as access to food and food inequalities continue to pose a barrier to healthy eating (which is generally more expensive than conventional diets). In France, local citizens’ groups have formed a network to facilitate access to food and foster solidarity among consumers. Beyond global foresight, a transition towards healthy and equitable diets depends on concrete changes at the local level. Densely populated urban areas are ideal places to work together with citizens to imagine future changes.
This face-to-face workshop with citizens will focus on Territorializing food transition towards healthy diets and food justice by 2040. This workshop was co-designed with a local food organization, the 14th District Food Social Security (Paris).
With a group of 30-40 participants, various long-term scenarios will be developed and discussed in group sessions. The workshop will draw on a scenario-based approach grounded in morphological analysis and will explore three aspects of the transition: nutrition and dietary practices, food justice and solidarity, and supply chains. The workshop will examine current trends, weak signals and ongoing changes, including cultural, environmental and social dimensions, as well as the economic organisation of the food chain. The method incorporates social issues related to food. The outcomes will enable participants to develop shared visions of a future food transition and to envisage the territorial organisation of a food system that could be developed to achieve a desirable future.
The workshop is open to the general public. Everyone who wishes to contribute to the topic is welcome, drawing on the own experience of food of citizens and on the local actors of the food system.
The workshop is part of a series of “Eye of Europe” pilot activities taking place during 2026, aimed at exploring possible futures and their implications for research and innovation (R&I) policy.

In this episode of Futures4Europe Conversations, Bianca Dragomir speaks with Nikos Kastrinos, who brings over 25 years of experience at the European Commission and more than 35 years of academic work in science, technology and innovation policy and foresight.

This conversation covers:

• What foresight does, at its best, and how it differs from other approaches
• Where the most difficult ethical tensions arise in foresight work
• How foresight can engage with sustainability in ways that open up different pathways
• The ways futures may be framed through techno-fixes
• How the use of AI tools is changing foresight practice, and what this requires from practitioners
• What it takes to do participatory foresight well
• What changes in practice could help foresight remain relevant in the next decade

The study “Futures of AI: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and EU Policy” explores
plausible trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) development and assesses their implications
for Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. It aims to inform EU R&I policy and contribute
to the development of an AI, recognising AI as a technology with transformative potential across
sectors and long-term structural consequences for investment, governance and strategic
direction.

Key Findings 

• AI development is characterised by uncertainty, path dependencies and competing trajectories
  rather than a single predictable pathway.  
• AI adoption in the EU remains uneven and relatively low, with higher uptake in digitally mature
  and data-intensive sectors such as ICT and professional services; sectors like manufacturing
  and construction lag behind. Where AI is deployed, it is primarily used in supportive roles rather
  than as a transformative force reshaping core business models. 
• Future adoption trajectories diverge across sectoral profiles, ranging from deep integration in
  innovation-led sectors to incremental optimisation in operational sectors and largely
  supplementary use in service-oriented sectors. 
• Several structural barriers constrain broader diffusion, including market fragmentation, the
  dominance of SMEs with limited resources, insufficient access to high-quality and interoperable
  data and shortages of skilled professionals, while investment levels remain fragmented and
  comparatively modest. On the other side, ethical, security and trust concerns continue to shape
  adoption decisions.  
• The EU’s regulatory leadership, particularly through the AI Act, creates both opportunities for
  trust-building and risks of administrative burden if implementation is not carefully managed.  

Lesotho faces some of the highest inequality levels in the world, leaving young people vulnerable to poverty, unemployment, and forced migration. Nearly a third of the population is under 24, yet youth voices can stay absent from decision-making. Cultural norms discourage open deliberation between young people and adults, leaving many — especially young herders, returnees from South Africa, and young women and girls — without opportunities to shape their futures.

The European Union, UNICEF, and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched the Youth Power Hub Programme in September 2024, with the goal of empowering young people as key players in governance and development at both local and national levels. To make the activities also future facing, the Youth4Foresight toolkit was used at the launch event. 

Training foresight facilitators

The toolkit, produced by European Commission, foresight experts and young people worldwide, offers a set of foresight techniques tailored for young people. Rather than relying on external foresight experts for a one-off workshop at the launch event, the EU and partners focused on embedding foresight within the Youth Power Hub itself. Local youth leaders participated in hybrid training on foresight fundamentals, specific tools, and facilitation skills.

These facilitators then led a futures workshop for 100 participants, exploring ‘The Future of Youth Advocacy in Lesotho.’ A key tool used, part of the Youth4Foresight toolkit, was Three Horizons , a structured approach to understanding systems change and transitions. 

Shifting mindsets, creating space for new ideas

For many participants, this was the first time they had been invited to systematically and critically think about the future — not as something distant and abstract, but as something they could actively shape. One facilitator described the experience as “a permission slip to imagine beyond the immediate struggles we are navigating.” Others found clarity in seeing how interconnected issues like climate resilience, youth unemployment, and political participation required systemic solutions. By framing discussions in terms of possible futures rather than fixed positions, it created space for conversations that might otherwise have been constrained by political or institutional barriers.

The workshop also empowered the young participants collectively convey their views on the Lesotho of the future to the decision makers present at the launch event, as a practical example of the dialogue that the Power Hub seeks to encourage.

What’s next for foresight in the Youth Power Hub?

Foresight is not a one-off intervention; it is a capability that grows over time. In a world where youth engagement is often reduced to consultation rather than real agency, the Youth4Foresight Toolkit offers young people a way to navigate uncertainty and define alternative futures they can build towards.

Spanning from 2024 to 2029, the Youth Power Hub in Lesotho will actively involve young people in decision-making to strengthen citizen participation and build stronger, more inclusive communities. The project supports the Youth Action Plan in European Union external action for 2022-2027 , the first ever policy framework for a strategic partnership with young people around the world. 

The future of Angola and its youth are inextricably linked, as the country looks to capitalise on its demographic dividend, with over two-thirds of its population under the age of 25. The National Development Plan (2023-2027) prioritizes youth and human capital development to overcome barriers to long-term growth. The Youth4Foresight Toolkit, developed by Directorate General for International Partnerships of the European Commission, youth experts and EU Delegations worldwide proved to be instrumental in engaging young Angolans.

Engaging Young Voices for Change

The Youth Forum in Malanje (in July 2024) centred on "Youth participation in local governance and its impact on human capital development" and brought together 52 youth participants (including 24 women and some young mothers) from five municipalities in Malanje province. The event focused on helping youth better understand national policies and explore ways how they can contribute meaningfully to local governance.

The Youth Forum was one of the events organised under the EU funded “Support to Civil Society in Local Governance in Angola (PASCAL)” action, which aims to contribute to economic growth and social development through an inclusive, heterogeneous and effective participation of civil society in the governance process.

A key element of the forum was the application of structured long-term thinking by using the techniques and guidance from the Youth4Foresight Toolkit. Through Three Horizons methodology, young participants explored different future scenarios and created actionable recommendations.

This same tool was also applied during the Youth Forum in Huambo, another Angolan province, where it proved equally successful in engaging youth and fostering forward-looking dialogue. 

Foresight in Action: Three Horizons Methodology

The Three Horizons technique enabled participants to envision a preferred future for their region and Angola. Divided into groups, they assessed the present, identified trends and challenges, and developed transition ideas.

Discussions highlighted youth concerns: education, healthcare, and local economic development, alongside challenges like poor infrastructure, inadequate education quality and limited access to essential services.

Participants formulated key recommendations for policymakers, such as creating youth-centred programs, youth centres and vocational training facilities, and stressed the importance of policies that improve access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, particularly in rural areas.

Yong people found the forum groundbreaking and meaningful, with one stating, "We have never participated in such an experience," emphasizing the importance of youth voice. Young mothers expressed hope for their children's futures and appreciated meeting others outside their villages, reflecting the workshop's deep impact in fostering hope and agency and ownership over their future. 

The Impact of Youth4Foresight

The structured, adaptable methodologies of the toolkit encouraged inclusive discussions, giving youth a voice in shaping the strategies outlined in Angola’s National Development Plan 2023-2027. As a result, the recommendations produced in the workshop were directly relevant to local realities and can guide policymakers in enhancing youth participation and development.

Using foresight techniques empowered young people to reflect on their aspirations, critically analyse their present situation, and propose realistic solutions. The Youth4Foresight Toolkit has been successfully used in several countries by EU Delegations to engage with youth as a part of the Youth Action Plan in EU external action. 

The 2026 edition takes place in Copenhagen on 20 March 2026 (09:00–18:00 CET) at H. C. Andersens Blvd. 18, 1553 København - Industriens Hus. Themes include the AI-mediated workplace, leadership in the future, emerging technologies (including AI agents, simulations and humanoids), the future consumer, retail in transformation, and the futures of foresight.

The Summit is a Nordic gathering for leaders, innovators, and forward-thinking organisations exploring the futures of emerging technologies and their impact on business, society, and organisational readiness. Co-hosted by Danish Industry (DI) and curated by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS), the conference brings together keynotes, Nordic cases, and conversations on preparedness and responsible, meaningful action.

The Summit 2026 – Industriens Hus, Copenhagen – exploring the possible futures of emerging technologies.

The Next Generation Foresight Practitioner (NGFP) Fellowship is an initiative of the School of International Futures (SOIF). The annual Fellowship is designed to help change the status quo and democratise the futures and foresight field with diverse perspectives from younger generations in under-represented geographies and communities.
In addition, the Next Generation Foresight Practitioner – Young Voices (NGFP-YV) Awards, in partnership with Teach the Future, showcases the emerging ideas of youth 12-17 years of age.

Over 6,000 expressions of interest were received this year, with 777 final submissions. Additionally, Young Voices Award partner organisation Teach the Future received 550 youth expressions of interest and 305 completed submissions.

The Spanish Association of Foresight (AEProspectiva) was founded with a clear purpose: to give voice, structure, and recognition to a discipline that is essential for anticipating and designing futures. We aim to consolidate a shared framework of reference that connects professionals in the field, advances knowledge, and raises the standards of practice in Spain. We seek to be a living, collaborative network in which active listening and the participation of our members guide the Association’s initiatives and activities.

The podcast covers a range of topics about the future and foresight. 

The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.


We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.

How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/ 

In a rapidly evolving world it is essential to learn how to deal with uncertain and ever-changing futures. Let’s prepare our next generations with these skills in the classroom!

Since 2015, we help teach futures-thinking skills to students and educators around the world and to inspire them to influence their futures.

In today’s volatile and interdependent world, uncertainty is not a temporary disruption. It is a defining feature. Strategic foresight has become a critical capability for navigating complexity, enabling decision-makers to anticipate change, surface emerging risks, and imagine alternative futures. At this inflection point, Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a profound augmentation to how we conduct foresight, but not a replacement. In this context, the Policy Foresight Unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service has recently published “Augmented foresight: The transformative power of generative AI for anticipatory governance ”.

Let’s be clear. AI cannot foresee the future. It does not reason with intent or understand human values. What it can do is dramatically increase our speed, scale, and scope in making sense of potential futures, if used judiciously and critically.

The cognitive extension of human futures thinking

Generative AI can be understood as a cognitive prosthetic, a tool that extends human perception, memory, and pattern recognition. LLMs excel at identifying latent patterns in unstructured data, surfacing weak signals, and generating coherent narratives based on probabilistic inference. These capacities are particularly useful in exploratory foresight, where practitioners seek to widen the aperture of plausible futures. That is why, at 4CF we have created 4CF Sprawlr - the next-generation AI-powered debate and ideation platform designed to transform the way we brainstorm, strategize, and make decisions, as well as to challenge the assumptions of participants.

Moreover, during horizon scanning, LLMs can process thousands of documents across domains in real-time, clustering insights, filtering noise, and flagging emergent issues. This ability to synthesize vast and diverse information ecosystems supports faster and more responsive foresight cycles. But raw data synthesis is not foresight. True anticipatory intelligence requires contextual judgment, ethical discernment, and interpretive framing, capacities that remain uniquely human.

Narrative construction and scenario intelligence

Scenario planning, a cornerstone of foresight, benefits from AI in powerful ways. GenAI can help identify key drivers, test interdependencies, and co-develop scenarios that are internally consistent and plausibly disruptive. When used in parallel (“AI swarms”), different models can triangulate and refine assumptions, improving narrative robustness.
From a cognitive science perspective, LLMs excel at narrative generation because human cognition is fundamentally narrative-driven. We make sense of complex information by constructing stories, and AI's narrative fluency can mirror and support this innate process. However, plausibility does not equal probability or desirability, and this is where human oversight is critical.
Moreover, GenAI can model second- and third-order effects, encouraging deeper exploration of cascading impacts. But it struggles with ambiguity and values-laden trade-offs, areas where human foresight is indispensable.

New frontiers

One of the most intriguing applications of GenAI in foresight is the use of generative agents, simulated personas capable of expressing realistic, contextually grounded responses. These tools can be embedded in scenario narratives to create dynamic, dialogical futures. Emerging research shows that synthetic respondents can replicate human survey responses with high fidelity in controlled environments. They enable simulations of behavioral dynamics in policymaking, urban planning, or public health where direct access to participants is limited. Yet, the epistemic status of these agents remains debated. Are they truly proxies for human complexity, or merely statistical echoes? Their outputs must be seen as exploratory artifacts, not empirical evidence, informing, but not determining, foresight conclusions.

Bias, blind spots, and the illusion of objectivity

Despite their capabilities, LLMs come with significant epistemological risks. Their training data is historically bounded and socioculturally skewed. Without critical intervention, they risk amplifying dominant worldviews and suppressing marginalized perspectives, exactly the opposite of what good foresight should do. This reinforces what foresight scholars have long argued: that the future is not a neutral space, but one shaped by power, values, and competing imaginaries. AI outputs can reflect and reproduce systemic biases unless de-biased through intentional prompt design, algorithmic transparency, and participatory governance frameworks.

Moreover, the fluency of LLM-generated text can create a false sense of authority, leading to overreliance or reduced critical engagement. Practitioners must remain reflexive and iterative, treating AI outputs as inputs for dialogue, not doctrine.

Augmented intelligence, not artificial intuition

There’s a philosophical tension at the heart of this conversation. Foresight is not merely an analytical process, it is also a normative, imaginative, and ethical act. It involves asking: What kind of future do we want? Whose futures are we considering? What trade-offs are we willing to make? Generative AI does not possess values. It does not dream, hope, or fear. These are deeply human faculties, and they are essential to meaningful foresight. That said, when used well, GenAI can be a strategic co-pilot: accelerating discovery, enabling richer scenario exploration, and expanding access to foresight methods across disciplines and organizations.

Co-evolving with the machine

In sum, the integration of GenAI into foresight practice should be viewed not as a technological leap, but as a sociotechnical evolution. The most effective foresight processes will be those that combine human insight, ethical reasoning, and narrative richness with the analytic power and generative capabilities of AI. To paraphrase a growing sentiment: the future will not be written by AI alone, but by humans who know how to work with it wisely. The real promise of GenAI lies in partnership, not replacement. Because while AI may help us see further, it is still up to us to choose the path, interpret the terrain, and navigate uncertainty with courage, care, and imagination.

What was the challenge?

The Research Council of Norway (RCN) identified five strategic areas in pursuit of ground-breaking research, radical innovation and sustainable development. RCN required a robust evidence base to help develop long-term, priority missions to help solve one or more societal challenges, as well as underpinning structural measures of the research environment in Norway. The five strategic areas include: Oceans; Green transition; Health and welfare; Cohesion and globalisation; and Technology and digitalisation.

How did we approach it?

We adopted a mixed method, participatory approach involving a variety of research tools such as trend analyses, literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, crowdsourcing ideas from experts, a survey of the public, future scenario analyses and workshops.

The core foresight work allowed us to examine what might happen in the next ten years in the different strategic areas and wider R&I system in Norway. Scenarios of future states were used as the basis for workshop discussions to stress test potential missions and structural measures that the RCN could consider developing and implementing in the future.

What was the outcome or impact of the work?

Extensive findings from this research were published in a series of nine reports. The research was cited as evidence in the RCN’s input to the 2022 revision of the Long-Term Plan for Research and Higher Education 2019–2028, which specifies the Norwegian government’s ambitions, key objectives and priority areas for research and higher education.

The study also helped inform the RCN’s internal decision making, strategies and organisational activities. In addition, a summary of the findings and proposals was presented to the relevant Norwegian minister.

Project webpage: https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/2021/future-research-innovation-norway.html 

Research outputs:

• Summary report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-1.pdf 
• Addressing future societal challenges in Norway: Detailed methodology report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-2.pdf
• A summary of potential cross-cutting missions to address future societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-3.pdf
  
  Structural measures to develop a resilient research and innovation environment in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-4.pdf
  
  Health and welfare: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-5.pdf
  
  Oceans: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-6.pdf
  
  Technology and digitalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-7.pdf
  
  Cohesion and globalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-8.pdf
  
  Green transition: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-9.pdf

The introduction of a new technology is never an isolated event and never concerns only one market or one domain. There are invariably socio-cultural, political, economic, and environmental implications, as well as impacts, influences, “cross-pollination”, and correlations among different technologies.

The very broad definition of technology itself betrays its intrinsic complexity: a vast field of research involving various technical and scientific disciplines, which examines the application and use of everything that can serve to solve problems. The term “technology” also refers to the aggregate of knowledge, skills, and tools used to design, create, and utilise objects, processes, systems, or services to meet human needs.

An emerging technology, in particular, is one that is radically new and relatively fast-growing technology [it is not necessarily exponential, as the common dialectics of recent years have conditioned us to expect, yet this has little to do with the mathematical concepts of exponentiality; rapid growth does not imply exponentiality]. It is characterised by a certain degree of coherence (or consistency) that persists over time and has the potential to have a substantial impact on the socio-economic-political domains (understood as the players, institutions, and models of interactions between them, as well as all the processes of knowledge production associated with these domains).

Its most significant impact lies in the future and thus in the emergency phase: an emerging technology is still quite uncertain and ambiguous. For this reason, it would be prudent to analyse its potential impacts in a timely manner, to avoid getting trapped in Amara’s Law.

WE HAVE A SOCIAL MISSION: TO STIMULATE CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES.
We focus on Futures & Foresight (Futures Thinking / Futures Studies & Strategic Foresight), with a specialization in Technology Foresight and ETS, Emerging Technologies Scanning. We are also dedicated to Futures Literacy, which involves the theoretical and practical literacy of Futures Studies and Futures Thinking. Through a Slow Journalism model, we disseminate and promote knowledge of emerging technologies, analyzing their potential impacts on our possible and alternative futures.

Healthy and Sustainable Diets, Circularity, Diversity: Pathways in Transition for Resilient European Agriculture and Food Systems in Times of Global Crisis (6th SCAR Foresight)
Explorative scenarios built upon the transition pathways with a deep dive on natural resources - land and water

The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research has a long tradition in the European Commission and represents the link of DG RTDI to the Member States in Agricultural Research. SCAR Foresight and the respective reports can be traced back to discussions and a working group for the European Commission in 2005/2006. On this basis, the first SCAR Foresight was conducted to highlight developments in the agricultural sector, new opportunities and better links to the research system. The areas of SCAR are broad: agriculture and fisheries, food systems, bioeconomy, and forestry.

Until now, five Foresight activities were under way , and the EC and Member States have used Foresight recommendations in planning their research coordination activities established under Horizon Europe (HE).

The 6th SCAR Foresight study is building on the 5th SCAR Foresight study and its transition pathways with adding explorative scenarios to the pathways (opening up the topics of the pathways once more), and linking them to a deep dive on natural resources, land and water. The three main transition pathways identified in the 5th SCAR Foresight were still judged as valid but need to be pursued in a new context. This context is marked by poly- and permacrises and new game changers like high-tech innovations as well as recent geopolitical developments and European political guidelines.

The 6th SCAR Foresight has the general objective of supporting a safe and just transition towards a more sustainable, competitive, and resilient agriculture and food sector including fisheries, forestry and bioeconomy. The EU political guidelines and the new political agenda under the new European Commission are taken into account. Results of the 6th SCAR Foresight will be provided as inputs to the FP10 Work Programme, to the strategic approach to EU agricultural research and innovation and the Food 2030 R&I initiative as well as to any other relevant and upcoming strategies and initiatives, at the national, European as well as at global level.

Summary

Core Themes
The book reimagines humanity’s future through planetary foresight, blending historical wisdom with planetary stewardship. It critiques linear Western progress narratives and advocates for a hybrid, cyclical vision of history, emphasizing pluralistic identities and reverence for life.

Structural Framework
Organized into thematic sections, the work begins with “The Mysterious Lord of Time,” challenging linear temporality and introducing non-linear, culturally diverse historical perspectives. “Evolving Belief Systems” contrasts Indo-Iranic, Mesopotamian, and Hellenic thought with Abrahamic traditions, highlighting ancient influences on modern pluralism.

Imagination and Futures
The “Histories of Imagination” section explores myth and storytelling as drivers of civilization, while “Scenarios of Future Worlds” applies foresight methodologies to geopolitical and technological evolution, emphasizing ecological consciousness. The final chapters expand to cosmic intelligence and ethics, framing humanity’s role within universal interconnectedness.

Ethical Vision
Central to the thesis is a call for planetary identity and stewardship, merging forgotten wisdom traditions with modern foresight to navigate ecological and technological uncertainties. The book positions itself as both a philosophical guide and practical framework for ethical transformation in an era of global crises.

Key Argument
Motti asserts that humanity is transitioning from a “Second Nomad Age” (characterized by fragmentation) toward a “Second Settlement Age” marked by planetary consciousness, requiring creative complexity and ethical vigilance.

📣 YouthDecide 2040 is looking for participants to join our regional workshops and co-create the future of European democracy!

Be part of a one-and-a-half-day immersive workshop where diverse voices come together to imagine and shape resilient, thriving European democracies.

🗣️💬 Through creative, participatory foresight activities, we will explore different visions of democracy in 2040—your perspective matters!

🧭 The wider, the better
Are you a European resident over 18? This call is for you!
We're fostering intergenerational discussions on the future of European democracy, centring youth voices (18-34).

🔓 The call for applications will remain open through May 2025. 

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

With this project, the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) aims to systematically integrate fundamental rights into EU foresight processes and activities. The project explores reference scenarios for fundamental rights and considers how different drivers of change could impact on fundamental rights in the period up until 2040. The scenarios will form the basis for a set of foresight policy briefs for selected megatrends. The project builds on the reference foresight scenarios developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, with a view to complement them with fundamental rights considerations.

The project includes horizon scanning, retrofitting scenarios, visioning, developing future pathways and policy options stress-testing. In all the activities, the project utilizes FRA’s draft guidance on inclusive, non-discriminatory and participatory foresight. Outputs comprise of a set of fundamental rights scenarios, foresight policy briefs and a guidance on embedding fundamental rights into foresight.

This project and the foresight knowledge it generates will enable FRA and other stakeholders to support EU institutions and Member States in addressing future challenges by creating a foresight framework that incorporates a fundamental rights perspective and ensures that policies remain inclusive, forward-looking and in line with the EU's core values.

As radical innovations are having a profound impact globallyon the macroeconomic environment, the Region of Central Macedonia is monitoringclosely following the developments, trends and variables that favour or affect it or negatively affecting its development.
Institutions and executives from the private and public sector have explored through a participatory and dynamic process (Thematic Participatory Workshop) the variables that will the innovation and entrepreneurship environment of the region with time horizon 2030, identified their dynamics and evaluated their interaction. The findings provided input to the working group for the development of four scenarios that will define the future of innovation in the region of Central Macedonia in the coming decade. These scenarios identified
the development of a proposal of three strategic axes, developing in a stepwise manner in three different periods, which will strengthen the resilience of the region and prepare it to face the conditions in these four futures.

The study is available in Greek.

Democracies in Europe have demonstrated resilience and modernisation in the face of various social and technological challenges. Democracy in the age of the Anthropocene will necessitate radical shifts in values, power relations and modes of governance, while also being built on the present, in all its diversity, paradox and insufficiency. Innovating to meet these challenges will require re-imagining how people living in democracies become equipped and supported to co-create resilient, democratic futures in Europe and beyond. Clear visions are needed to build strategies that allow for rethinking and redesigning spaces, institutions, instruments and ways to represent and include people in democratic governance. YouthDecide 2040 aims to support European Union democracy to rise to these challenges through evidence-based historical and contemporary knowledge, strategic foresight, and robust deliberation. 

Specifically, YouthDecide 2040 has the main objective to: co-create with European youth – and older generations, political and institutional actors, and organised civil society – coherent pathways to desired futures of democracy in the European Union in 2040. We translate our main objective into a series of research questions that need to be answered to support the work. Each question is connected to a key objective and corresponding work packages to support co-creation. All activities are planned to be inclusive and open processes – transparently documented along the way – to enable repetition and implementation beyond the life of the project. The project’s ambition is to reinvigorate democracy in and across Europe with visions and pathways – made with active and inclusive citizen participation – for becoming more resilient to current and future challenges. 

Preferred scenarios, and visions from YouthDecide 2040 will aim to inform research and innovation pathways. They will help ensure the alignment of future and ongoing research and innovation with the values and needs of the democratic societies within the EU that support their advancement. The YouthDecide 2040 consortium comprises 11 partners with research expertise in areas of democracy research, foresight, participatory deliberation, co-creation, strategy development, as well as partners working in youth representation and organization, democracy advocacy, design, and multimedia communication. The project duration is three years, until the end of 2027 and it has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101177438. 

This document provides guidance on how to conduct a structured horizon scanning process to identify emerging developments that could have potential impact in the future, and in particular on the environment. It starts with an overview of the guide (Chapter 1) and an introduction to horizon scanning (Chapter 2) in connection with the concept of futures literacy. It then provides a step-by-step approach for conducting a structured horizon scanning process (Chapter 3), including a variety
of diverse sources for spotting signals, different frameworks for signal scanning and several options to unpack and analyse the collected signals and patterns of change through creative methods and exercises. It also proposes a few different and complementary ways of communicating the findings to relevant stakeholders, networks and communities. Lastly, it suggests some tools (Chapter 4) that can be used to strengthen the scanning process. The annexes offer a detailed comparison of such tools and a glossary of terms related to futures literacy.

FCT, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management and the European Commission (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation) promoted, on December 5, a workshop with the active participation of representatives from all sectors of the National Research and Innovation System (R&I), and representatives of European states participating in this MLE-Mutual Learning Exercise, in order to discuss and agree on possible guidelines and joint work with a view to an institutionalization of capabilities and the creation of foresight communities in this system.

The following day, December 6th, FCT hosted the meeting of this network that has, besides Portugal, representatives from Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, Norway, Romania and Slovenia.   

Humans have internal clocks that clock vital biological rhythms. These are innate, but can be positively or negatively influenced by the environment. Daily rhythms are regulated by the “circadian system” (the internal clock).
The circadian system is inextricably linked to the regulation of the sleep-wake rhythm. Disruptions to the circadian system can therefore cause sleep disorders and associated cognitive impairment as well as various health problems. 

How do we humans influence our future by neglecting these rhythms? And what can we individually or as an organisation do to support our rhythmic life? Currently, we are de-synchronising ourselves, our organs and our lives... we are on an unhealthy way. What we need is a future chronobiologically enlightened society. 3 Policy Briefs and a final report describe the state of the art of our knowledge and many options for the future.

4CF The Futures Literacy Company is a consultancy entirely focused on strategic foresight and long-term strategies. For nearly two decades, 4CF has been on the mission to help its clients prepare for an uncertain tomorrow. The Company has executed hundreds of projects for private companies, public institutions and international entities, including the European Commission and its agencies (EUDA, ENISA), FAO, UNFCCC, UNESCO, UNEP and UNDP. 4CF is at the forefront of global innovation, and actively contributes to the development of cutting-edge foresight tools, including 4CF HalnyX (Delphi platform), 4CF Sprawlr, 4CF FLEx.

I had the privilege to participate in a democracy conference and hackathon in Moldova in October, just days before the country’s pivotal EU referendum and presidential elections. Organized by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation in collaboration with local partner Yep Moldova and supported by USAID and the New Democracy Fund, the event was a hub of creativity, democratic innovation and a dose of foresight.

Foresight on Demand (FOD) is a rapid foresight response mechanism organised in a framework contract, and aims at providing quick forward-looking inputs to policymaking by leveraging the best available foresight knowledge. It addresses the growing need for quicker and more responsive foresight to inform policymaking in an increasingly turbulent environment.

Representatives of all twenty FOD partner organisations and representatives of different client authorities met in person during a lunch-to-lunch meeting in Brussels taking place at IDEA consult premises from October 10 to October 11, 2024.

47 people participated in the meeting that focussed on getting to know all FOD partners, especially the new partner organisations of FOD II, gaining insights on expectations of client authorities, as well as on updating the FOD consortium on ongoing and upcoming requests and discussing the FOD service provision processes. The meeting offered the opportunity to exchange in group discussions, during the FOD partner art gallery, where partners presented their organisations and services through art pieces and creative work, and informally during lunch, coffee and at the social dinner.

The meeting revealed inspiring insights on lessons learned during FOD I (2019-2023), on promoting the FOD framework for potential projects, as well as on emerging topics potentially relevant to the current FOD II (2024-2028) period.

The vision of FOSTER is to build a foundation from which a new Knowledge and Innovation System (KIS) for Europe’s food system can emerge. The current structure is insufficient to address the emerging challenges of nourishing people in a healthy and sustainable way. Key objective is to gain insights into how it can be built to be more inclusive and better governed. 

FOSTER shall help to transform Europe’s food system outcomes and will achieve this by: 

• building a FOSTER Platform including food system-state of the art knowledge, foresight by semi-automated Horizon scanning, trend and threats-analysis and new multi-dimensional scenarios of EU food systems to 2040; 
• implementing the FOSTER Academy – including four Summer Schools – for integrating food system-related disciplines and citizen science to enhance food system understanding across the ERA; 
• initiating and assessing a co-creation and co-learning process within six national resp. regional Citizen Driven Initiatives (CDIs), in which new knowledge, strategies and Action Research Agendas are gained; 
• scaling out and deep CDIs solutions and approaches to other territorial contexts; 
• studying different R&I mechanisms of policy support for mission-oriented R&I policy for food systems transformation, and analysing and ground-proofing them in each CDI; 
• strengthening science-policy interfaces by co-learning processes with external experts and developing recommendations for food systems R&I policies tailored to different geographies and sectors; 
• identifying the trigger points to help ‘unlock’ system lock-ins and support further dynamics towards system transformation; 
• and applying reflective monitoring on all FOSTER’s co-learning activities to develop insights into how the KIS can be broadened from an agricultural-KIS to a food system-KIS.
  

To inspire adoption of FOSTER learnings, over 20 workshops and a final conference will be conducted; scientific position papers and policy briefs will be widely communicated. 

Arctik is a Brussels-based communications agency recognised for its strategic and creative communication capacity in the field of sustainability. Arctik develops tailored public relations and communication strategies that take both objectives and resulting impact into account. We facilitate the creation of communities and networks that contribute towards circulating content, whilst cultivating meaningful dialogues and synergies between influencers and decision-makers.

Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence.
Our team has a strong commitment to sustainability. We incorporate sustainable values into operations Arctik has substantial experience in designing and implementing communication campaigns and projects which mix creative communication and sustainability. We believe in communication campaigns which provide a setting where opportunities are created, and knowledge is shared between actors. It is an occasion to convey a message and collect insights and intelligence. and consider environmental and social factors in every business decision, while encouraging our partners and clients to think circular! Arctik is also registered to obtain the Brussels ‘Enterprise ecodynamique’ label. 

Arctik, as part of Technopolis Group is present in more than 10 countries with 300 consultants originating from +45 countries and speaking +30 languages. This diversity offers a unique perspective on what local-level stakeholders are receptive to. 

Our offices are located in : • Austria • Belgium • Colombia • France • Germany • Ivory Coast • Netherlands • Greece • Portugal • Sweden • Ivory Cost • Colombia • United Kingdom.

Our solutions: Strategy • Messaging and copywriting • Online and offline engagement • Thought-provoking design • Web services • Project Management • Video and animation • Data-driven communication • Events • Social media campaigns & monitoring • Knowledge management and Capitalisation • Media and visibility.

Our expertise: Regional Policy, Circular Economy, Climate Services, Education, Entrepreneurship, Science & Innovation.

Arctik is part of Technopolis |group|
Website www.arctik.eu
LinkedIn linkedin.com/company/arctik/
Bluesky bsky.app/profile/arctik.eu 

Insight Foresight Institute (IF-Institute) is an independent research and consultancy firm founded in Madrid (Spain) in 2015. We orchestrate expertise in entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems to spark and drive structural changes, enhance resilience and direct society towards social, economic and environmental sustainability.

Our main sectors

Education|Energy And Environment | Health And Social Care | ICT | Manufacturing | Research And Innovation | Services | Transport And Infrastructure

Our solutions

* Activation & Alignment – scaling up ecosystem activities
* Insight & Foresight – assessing the past performance and exploring future developments
* Strategy & Governance – providing direction and structures
* Training & Mentoring – building capacities and capabilities
* Programming & Implementation – turning visions into action

Our partners

We offer a platform for experts and organisations to come up with creative and viable solutions to complex problems. We work with business, policy, academia and other stakeholders.

* We help established companies to position themselves in the wider ecosystem and work with stakeholders to empower their innovation activities.
* We help startups to define their growth plans and work with other organisations to scale up their transformative business.
* We help policymakers and their stakeholders to improve ecosystem performance and work together for transformative change. Our sectors

Futures Conference 2025 focuses on the futures of technologies, their development, importance, role and risks as a driver of social change. What are the effects of social and environmental changes on technological development and vice versa?

‘Futures of Technologies’ is the 25t h international Futures Conference of the Finland Futures Research Centre and Finland Futures Academy, University of Turku. It is organised together with the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd during 10–12 June 2025 in Turku, Finland.

Keynote Speakers
Ali Aslan Gümüşay is professor of Innovation, Entrepreneurship & Sustainability at LMU Munich and head of research group Innovation, Entrepreneurship & Society at the Humboldt Institute for Internet & Society Berlin. His research focuses on values, meaning and hybridity in entrepreneurship; grand challenges, sustainability and new forms of organizing; digitalization, management and innovation as well as impact, scholarship and futures.

Cynthia Selin is a pioneering social scientist and strategic foresight expert known for developing innovative methodologies to navigate complex change and advance the theoretical boundaries of anticipation. An Associate Fellow at the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, and core faculty in the Oxford Scenarios Programme, Dr. Selin also founded Scenaric, a consulting firm that equips organizations to tackle uncertainty and shape resilient futures.

Philip Brey is professor of Philosophy and Ethics of Technology at the University of Twente. He is member of the management team (and former chairman) of the 4TU Center for Ethics & Technology, a partnership of the universities of Twente, Delft, Eindhoven and Wageningen with more than 60 researchers.

Jerome C. Glenn co-founded and directs The Millennium Project, a leading global participatory think tank with over 70 Nodes around the world. He is assisting the UN Council of Presidents of the General Assembly on the UNGA’s role in governance of Artificial General Intelligence, author/editor forthcoming Global Governance of Artificial General Intelligence (De Gruyter), lead author State of the Future 20.0 and Future Work/Tech 2050: Scenarios and Actions and co-editor Futures Research Methodology 3.0 with Ted Gordon. Glenn has directed over 80 futures research projects and is a member of the IEEE SA P2863 Organizational Governance of AI working group.

Rohit Talwar (CEO, Fast Futures, UK) was recently in the top three in 'the Global Gurus Top 30 futuris' rankings for 2025. He is an inspirational futurist and the CEO of Fast Future, delivering award-winning keynote speeches, executive education, foresight, research, consultancy, and coaching. Rohit was delivered over 2000 speeches, workshops, and consulting assignments for clients in 80+ countries across six continents. He is the co-author and lead editor of nine books and over 50 reports on the emerging future and appears regularly on TV and in print media around the world. 

Read more about the Keynotes. 

Conference Newsletters

• Conference Newsletter #1 (4.11.2024)
• Conference Newsletter #2 (26.11.2024)  
• Conference Newsletter #3 (08.01.2025) 
• Conference Newsletter #4 (25.03.2025)    

The AIT Austrian Institute of Technology is Austria's largest non-university research institution and is the specialist among European research institutions for the central infrastructure topics of the future. With its seven centres, the AIT sees itself as a highly specialised research and development partner for industry in the fields of Energy, Health & Bioresources, Digital Safety & Security, Vision, Automation & Control, Low-Emission Transport, Technology Experience and Innovation Systems & Policy. Around 1,500 employees throughout Austria conduct research to develop the tools, technologies and solutions for Austria's economy.

Research and innovation (R&I) foresight in Europe is no longer a niche methodological practice. It is increasingly recognised as a governance capability for navigating polycrises and rapid technological change. Yet it remains unevenly institutionalised and therefore strategically underused. The revised Eye of Europe report, Showcasing Perspectives: A Stocktaking of R&I Foresight Practices in Europe, argues that the value of foresight depends less on the number of activities conducted than on mandates, timing, institutional anchoring and the conditions that enable uptake. 

The report, drafted by the DLR Project Management Agency (DLR-PT) is based on a mixed-methods design combining desk research, an online survey, and qualitative interviews. It identifies 181 organisations involved in R&I foresight and analyses a portfolio of 69 recent projects submitted by 51 organisations from 21 European Research Area (ERA) countries. Taken together, these cases show how foresight is applied at the intersection of science, innovation and policy. This includes agenda-setting at national and regional levels, addressing mission-oriented challenges such as climate change and health, and anticipating the impact of digitalisation and emerging technologies. This demonstrates that foresight is already being applied in situations involving both high levels of uncertainty and significant political implications.

A central finding concerns a governance gap in the way foresight is used. In some contexts, foresight is supported by institutional routines and longstanding project experiences. In others, however, it remains disconnected from budget cycles, regulatory windows, and key decision points. This results in ad hoc exercises, which lower their impact. foresight generates policy value when it is embedded in governance cycles where decisions are taken and backed by clear administrative or political mandates. When senior decision-makers are engaged from the outset and remain committed, foresight can inform strategies, influence funding priorities and contribute to formal policy instruments. However, when it is poorly timed or treated as a standalone initiative (as it is in the case of some of the 69 cases), it tends to remain advisory rather than impactful. 

Process and participation matter

This is also why the study considers the foresight process itself to be significant. Across the 69 cases, co-creation and participatory engagement generated long-lasting benefits, such as trust-building and enhanced futures literacy, which often outlast the written output such as yet another foresight report. These learning effects strengthen anticipatory capacity by shaping how institutions interpret signals, assess risk and negotiate trade-offs in uncertain conditions. Furthermore, the report indicates that the participation of decision makers is associated with higher uptake than expert-only approaches.

The report also identifies structural weaknesses that limit the political legitimacy of foresight, and consequently its strategic impact. Participation patterns remain strongly centred on experts and the political administration: scientists and experts, as well as public bodies, are involved in the vast majority of projects (93% and 90%, respectively), while citizens and business representatives are integrated less systematically (30% and 40%, respectively). This choice of participants influences which futures are considered plausible and which risks are prioritised. For mission-oriented and transformative R&I agendas, where implementation depends on social acceptance and behavioural change, broader participation is not simply a box-ticking exercise but appears to be an important condition for the development of robust policies that are socially acceptable.
Methodologically, the report highlights a continued focus on exploratory tools. Scenarios, trend analysis and horizon scanning dominate (64%, 52% and 48% respectively), while methods that connect more directly to implementation and robustness, such as policy stress-testing (7%), backcasting (20%) and futures literacy formats (10%), remain underused. This has both technical and political implications. While the prevailing method mix supports exploration, it often fails to translate long-term insight into robust decision-making under short-term political incentives, budget constraints and organisational routines. In this context, broadening the methodological repertoire is about strengthening the capacity of institutions to connect long-term perspectives to actionable pathways that can withstand electoral, administrative, and fiscal pressures. 

When it comes to communicating results, the study highlights a tendency to rely too heavily on written outputs, which can restrict visibility and sustained engagement. In contrast, more immersive, visual or experiential formats can extend interaction beyond the immediate project cycle. This determines whether foresight is perceived as just another report in the bookshelf or as an active reference point in debates on public policy. 

Capacity was identified as the overarching constraint in the assessed cases. Almost all respondents (96%) identified capacity-building needs relating to methods, facilitation, data analysis, communication, policy translation and staffing. When foresight is added to existing roles as an additional task, continuity and quality tend to deteriorate and institutionalisation stalls. Therefore, the synthesis treats capacity building as a prerequisite for transitioning from project-based experimentation to routine governance functions embedded in organisational practice and decision-making cycles.

Looking ahead, the report identifies emerging practices of political significance. AI-supported horizon scanning and data-driven anticipation offer greater speed and scope, while experiential and speculative formats increase engagement and deliberation. At the same time, the report emphasises the need for critical reflection on transparency and bias. It highlights a growing focus on representation (including future generations and nature), debiasing techniques, and human-centred, sustainability-oriented futures. These developments signal a shift away from technology- or growth-centred narratives, towards approaches that more explicitly address values, legitimacy and intergenerational justice as these issues are gaining importance in European debates on the direction of R&I policy.

The findings raise a broader question for the European foresight community: what would it take for foresight to move from project-based experimentation to a routine governance capability across Europe? Addressing this question requires attention not only to methods, but to mandates, institutional design, participation and capacity. How these elements are strengthened will shape the role foresight can play in guiding Europe’s R&I policy in the years ahead. 

For more information, please contact the author, Simon Winter, at Simon.Winter@dlr.de.