Mozambique is one of the youngest countries in the world, with more than 50% of the population under the age of 18. This youth bulge presents a unique demographic and economic opportunity but also places a significant strain on public services, particularly education. Facing challenges such as high unemployment, climate vulnerability, insecurity, and limited access to digital infrastructure, youth-led solutions are critical for building a “future-ready” country.

The European Union Delegation (EUD) established a Youth Sounding Board (YSB) in 2023 to get input on EU policies by young Mozambicans, as a part of the EU’s Youth Action Plan, and since then they have been consulting them regularly, including for the latest Annual Action Plan 2026.

In the context of the EU Global Gateway initiative and t he preparation for the EU's next long-term budget 2028-2034, the EU Delegation invited the YSB for a foresight exercises using the Youth4Foresight Toolkit to reflect on the long-term role of the youth and on the strategic priorities for energy, digital, and education in Mozambique. The exercise objectives were to strengthen the YSB members’ capacities and enhance their agency using foresight tools to critically engage with and influence policymaking processes, while providing insights for the upcoming EU programming in Mozambique. 

The Three Horizons Workshop

An online workshop for 20 YSB members, facilitated by the young people themselves, took place on 5 December 2025. The online format allowed for participation from YSB members from all over the country and both the preparation and the workshop were held in Portuguese, based on the Portuguese version of the Youth4Foresight Toolkit.

The Youth Sounding Board used the Three Horizons tool to struc ture their brainstorming in steps:

Horizon 3 (the desired future): participants imagined their inspirational future focusing on their aspired changes for the domains of energy, digital and education. 

Horizon 1 (the current system): groups travelled back to the present to identify "business as usual" patterns that are no longer fit for purpose.

Seeds of the Future: participants identified existing pioneers and grassroots initiatives that are already starting to bring their future vision to life.

Horizon 2 (the transition): groups brainstormed innovations and collaborations needed to remove blockers and transition from the current system to the desired future.

Action board: finally, considering the three horizons that they have outlined, the groups defined action statements for the YSB and recommendations for the EU Delegation. 

The Outcomes

Participants drafted a Declaration of Action and Commitments, outlining steps for current and future Youth Sounding Boards while providing recommendations for EU programming in energy, digital, and education sectors. Feedback was highly positive; members praised the tool's ability to foster structured creative thinking, with several planning to replicate the exercise in their local communities.

The Three Horizons tool successfully empowered youth by enhancing their futures thinking skills. The outcomes will now inform EU planning for Mozambique, allowing YSB members to actively architect their country's development. 

Facing uncertainty around climate change, AI, and job security, youth in Vietnam took part in two foresight workshops where they explored future trends, used strategic tools, and built skills to respond to challenges and shape long-term solutions. 

Why Futures Thinking Skills Matter for the Youth in Vietnam

Young people across Vietnam and Southeast Asia are navigating a future shaped by climate change, environmental degradation, and the rapid rise of automation and AI. Many are concerned about job security and feel uncertain about what lies ahead. There’s also a growing sense of mistrust toward institutions and doubts about whether a sustainable and just future is truly being safeguarded. In the face of these realities, learning how to think strategically about the future - and take action - is becoming an essential skillset for youth.

Exploring the Future Through Youth Collaboration & Foresight

With the support of the European Commission, the EU Delegation in Vietnam organised two online foresight workshops for the Vietnam Youth Advisory Board (VYAB). The sessions were held in September 2024 and each session lasted 1.5 hours, tailored to the participants’ availability across time zones.

The workshops brought together young people from VYAB and participants from neighboring countries to explore how futures thinking could help youth shape Southeast Asia’s future, especially around three EU priorities: the digital and circular economy, responsible entrepreneurship, and governance.

Using the Youth4Foresight toolkit, participants engaged in interactive sessions via Miro, an online collaboration tool that was well received. The energy was high, especially as youth connected across the region and from different professional backgrounds to share ideas and build new perspectives. 

Tools to Shift Mindsets and Spark Ideas

To kick off, participants explored three warm-up exercises: imagining the world in 2050, rating uncertainties about the future, and identifying trends likely to shape the region. These activities encouraged reflection and helped shift thinking from the present to long-term possibilities. The future holds many paths, but once we begin to recognize them and take action, we can shape those possibilities into something better. 

From Trends to Actions

The workshops introduced two main foresight tools: the Futures Wheel and 3 Horizons.

With the Futures Wheel, participa nts mapped the ripple effects of trends like digital transition, shifting global power dynamics, and resource scarcity. This helped them understand how one change could lead to another, revealing both risks and opportunities for regional action.

The 3 Horizons exercise in vited participants to reflect on current realities, imagine more desirable futures, and propose ways to get there. Working in teams based on EU priorities, they turned broad visions into concrete ideas and short-term actions. 

Shared Futures, Shared Responsibility: A Key Takeaway

Futures thinking proved to be a powerful tool in times of uncertainty. It allowed participants to think more strategically, adaptively, and collaboratively. As they described: "It gave structure to our ideas. We felt more in control of shaping what’s next."

One of the strongest takeaways was the value of working together. By sharing ideas across the region and professional backgrounds, participants saw how collective thinking leads to more creative, inclusive, and actionable outcomes. It’s not just about imagining what’s coming - it’s about imagining it together.

Youth left the workshops with stronger skills, renewed motivation, and a clearer sense of how they can lead change in their communities and beyond.

Check out the toolkit and star t building your future-thinking muscles! 

Lesotho faces some of the highest inequality levels in the world, leaving young people vulnerable to poverty, unemployment, and forced migration. Nearly a third of the population is under 24, yet youth voices can stay absent from decision-making. Cultural norms discourage open deliberation between young people and adults, leaving many — especially young herders, returnees from South Africa, and young women and girls — without opportunities to shape their futures.

The European Union, UNICEF, and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched the Youth Power Hub Programme in September 2024, with the goal of empowering young people as key players in governance and development at both local and national levels. To make the activities also future facing, the Youth4Foresight toolkit was used at the launch event. 

Training foresight facilitators

The toolkit, produced by European Commission, foresight experts and young people worldwide, offers a set of foresight techniques tailored for young people. Rather than relying on external foresight experts for a one-off workshop at the launch event, the EU and partners focused on embedding foresight within the Youth Power Hub itself. Local youth leaders participated in hybrid training on foresight fundamentals, specific tools, and facilitation skills.

These facilitators then led a futures workshop for 100 participants, exploring ‘The Future of Youth Advocacy in Lesotho.’ A key tool used, part of the Youth4Foresight toolkit, was Three Horizons , a structured approach to understanding systems change and transitions. 

Shifting mindsets, creating space for new ideas

For many participants, this was the first time they had been invited to systematically and critically think about the future — not as something distant and abstract, but as something they could actively shape. One facilitator described the experience as “a permission slip to imagine beyond the immediate struggles we are navigating.” Others found clarity in seeing how interconnected issues like climate resilience, youth unemployment, and political participation required systemic solutions. By framing discussions in terms of possible futures rather than fixed positions, it created space for conversations that might otherwise have been constrained by political or institutional barriers.

The workshop also empowered the young participants collectively convey their views on the Lesotho of the future to the decision makers present at the launch event, as a practical example of the dialogue that the Power Hub seeks to encourage.

What’s next for foresight in the Youth Power Hub?

Foresight is not a one-off intervention; it is a capability that grows over time. In a world where youth engagement is often reduced to consultation rather than real agency, the Youth4Foresight Toolkit offers young people a way to navigate uncertainty and define alternative futures they can build towards.

Spanning from 2024 to 2029, the Youth Power Hub in Lesotho will actively involve young people in decision-making to strengthen citizen participation and build stronger, more inclusive communities. The project supports the Youth Action Plan in European Union external action for 2022-2027 , the first ever policy framework for a strategic partnership with young people around the world. 

As the future grows more complex and uncertain, young people in Cambodia are learning to navigate it with curiosity, creativity, and clarity. In September 2024, the European Union Delegation (EUD) to Cambodia hosted a 2.5-hour online foresight workshop with its Youth Sounding Board (YSB), using the Youth4Foresight Toolkit. The session introduced strategic foresight tools to help youth anticipate change, collaborate on ideas, and shape sustainable futures. Using Miro, participants explored trends related to climate action, public service transformation, and governance. 

Why futures thinking matters

Cambodian youth are facing a web of intersecting challenges - from climate risks and water scarcity to inequities in education, healthcare, and digital access. Futures thinking offers them a way to not only react but lead proactively. The ability to think strategically about long-term possibilities, and act accordingly, is becoming a critical skill. 

Methodology

Prior to the session, youth had participated in an introductory workshop to familiarize themselves with key foresight concepts. From that, five trends emerged as most relevant to Cambodia: shifting geopolitical power, green and digital transitions, resource scarcity, new governance systems, and "Basic Services 3.0" (health, education, justice).

During the main session, participants selected resource scarcity and basic services as the two core trends to explore through the Futures Wheel. They mapped i mmediate and secondary impacts—such as income inequality, food insecurity, and weak infrastructure—then identified strategies like improved public-private partnerships, climate legislation, and innovation in resource use to build long-term resilience.

Next, youth moved into a Three Horizons exercise, which helped them ref lect on current realities, envision desirable futures, and chart a pathway of innovation and action between the two.

Horizon 1 highlighted structural challenges: limited access to clean water, energy, and internet; weak healthcare; unskilled labor; and poor transport. These reinforced the sense that "business as usual" is no longer sustainable.

Horizon 2 focused on transitional innovations already emerging. Youth emphasized the importance of public-private collaboration, digital literacy, green skills, and inclusive transport. Highly supported ideas included promoting green tourism, separate city bus lanes, and youth networks.

Horizon 3 captured bold visions for a more inclusive Cambodia—with universal access to clean water and air, waste-free cities, thriving green public spaces, and stronger digital governance. 

Participants also identified “Seeds of the Future”—existing initiatives like food banks, grassroots movements, and water treatment projects—that reflect Horizon 3 values but need scaling up.

Results & Discussion

Participants reported a mindset shift:

🗣️ “Before this, I didn’t give much thought to the future. Now, I find it essential for both my career and our community.”
🗣️ “Foresight helps me understand, predict, and align my work with long-term goals.”
🗣️ “The Three Horizons model was simple but powerful.”

While the session was well received, some challenges were noted:

- The online format limited peer-to-peer engagement.
- Some participants were hesitant to speak up; deeper facilitation could help.
- The single-session format was dense, splitting it into two shorter sessions may enhance reflection.
- Still, the session sparked high engagement and showed foresight’s value in building youth leadership and agency. 

Looking Ahead

This Cambodia workshop is part of the broader Youth4Foresight initiative sup ported by INTPA. It signals growing momentum for inclusive, future-focused engagement in EU partner countries. Cambodian youth aren’t just imagining the future - they’re preparing to lead it. 

The future of Angola and its youth are inextricably linked, as the country looks to capitalise on its demographic dividend, with over two-thirds of its population under the age of 25. The National Development Plan (2023-2027) prioritizes youth and human capital development to overcome barriers to long-term growth. The Youth4Foresight Toolkit, developed by Directorat e General for International Partnerships of the European Commission, youth experts and EU Delegations worldwide proved to be instrumental in engaging young Angolans.

Engaging Young Voices for Change

The Youth Forum in Malanje (in July 2024) centred on "Youth participation in local governance and its impact on human capital development" and brought together 52 youth participants (including 24 women and some young mothers) from five municipalities in Malanje province. The event focused on helping youth better understand national policies and explore ways how they can contribute meaningfully to local governance.

The Youth Forum was one of the events organised under the EU funded “Support to Civil Society in Local Governance in Angola (PASCAL)” action, which aims to contribute to economic growth and social development through an inclusive, heterogeneous and effective participation of civil society in the governance process.

A key element of the forum was the application of structured long-term thinking by using the techniques and guidance from the Youth4Foresight Toolkit. Through Three Horizons methodology, young participants explored different future scenarios and created actionable recommendations.

This same tool was also applied during the Youth Forum in Huambo, another Angolan province, where it proved equally successful in engaging youth and fostering forward-looking dialogue. 

Foresight in Action: Three Horizons Methodology

The Three Horizons technique enabled participants to envision a preferred future for their region and Angola. Divided into groups, they assessed the present, identified trends and challenges, and developed transition ideas.

Discussions highlighted youth concerns: education, healthcare, and local economic development, alongside challenges like poor infrastructure, inadequate education quality and limited access to essential services.

Participants formulated key recommendations for policymakers, such as creating youth-centred programs, youth centres and vocational training facilities, and stressed the importance of policies that improve access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, particularly in rural areas.

Yong people found the forum groundbreaking and meaningful, with one stating, "We have never participated in such an experience," emphasizing the importance of youth voice. Young mothers expressed hope for their children's futures and appreciated meeting others outside their villages, reflecting the workshop's deep impact in fostering hope and agency and ownership over their future. 

The Impact of Youth4Foresight

The structured, adaptable methodologies of the toolkit encouraged inclusive discussions, giving youth a voice in shaping the strategies outlined in Angola’s National Development Plan 2023-2027. As a result, the recommendations produced in the workshop were directly relevant to local realities and can guide policymakers in enhancing youth participation and development.

Using foresight techniques empowered young people to reflect on their aspirations, critically analyse their present situation, and propose realistic solutions. The Youth4Foresight Toolkit has been successfully used in several countries by EU Delegations to engage with youth as a part of the Youth Action Plan in EU external action. 

Curious about how Europe’s demographic trends may transform the R&I landscape? 

On 10 December 2025, DG Research & Innovation hosted a hybrid event at the DG RTD Library in Brussels to present the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) study: “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe?”

FOD team members guided the audience through: 

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding. 
• A six-step Foresight Process combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges. 
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system. 
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, foster lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology.

👏 A big thank you to the panelists and speakers:

• Erik Canton (Deputy Head of Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Nicola Francesco Dotti (Chief Economist Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Brikena Xhomaqi (The Lifelong Learning Platform)
• Alex Petropoulos (Centre for Future Generations)
• Thomas Estermann (European University Association)
• Maciej Krysztofowicz (EU policy Lab, Joint Research Centres)
• Viola Peter (FOD team, Technopolis Group)
• Michal Nadziak (FOD team, 4CF)
• Katarzyna Figiel (FOD team, 4CF) 

And to all participants for an engaging exchange on how to build a more adaptive and resilient EU R&I system. 

In case you missed the event, you can find all the materials below.

This report presents the outcomes of the Geopolitical Industrial Decarbonisation Scenarios workshop, convened on behalf of the Eye of Europe Horizon Europe project by the Insight Foresight Institute. Bringing together 30 participants from across the European Union—including policymakers at EU, national, and regional levels, industry leaders, energy and climate specialists, and foresight and forecasting experts—the workshop explored how the EU can navigate mounting geopolitical uncertainty while accelerating industrial decarbonization on a 2050 horizon.

The discussion was structured around two core aims. First, participants examined a suite of forward-looking geopolitical scenarios, assessing how divergent power dynamics, energy trade patterns, and technological trajectories could either hinder or catalyse the transition to a net-zero industrial base in the EU countries. Particular attention was paid to supply-chain resilience, strategic autonomy in critical materials, and the interplay between carbon border adjustments and global climate diplomacy. Second, the workshop sought to surface emergent research and innovation (R&I) needs and opportunities that would equip EU actors to thrive across the scenarios. Priorities highlighted include advanced electrification processes for hard-to-abate sectors, low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic-fuel value chains, circular-economy business models, and data-driven tools for real-time decarbonisation monitoring.

Outputs from the session feed directly into the Eye of Europe project’s multi-workshop learning cycle. Immediate products comprise this extended report for attendees; aggregated insights captured in the public Pilot Logbook Part I – What we did and Part II – What we learned; and distilled policy recommendations to be released in the Eye of Europe Policy Brief: Foresight Perspectives on Key R&I Topics. Beyond documentation, the Insight Foresight Institute will leverage the findings to stimulate agenda-setting dialogues with EU bodies and industrial stakeholders, ensuring that identified R&I pathways inform Horizon Europe programming and other EU-level funding instruments. Workshop materials and presentations are retrievable via the futures4europe.eu knowledge-sharing portal, reinforcing the project’s commitment to an open foresight community.

The Future of Sustainable Fashion event took place on Monday, April 14, 2025, at the MOMus - Museum of Modern Art in Thessaloniki, Greece. The workshop was implemented surrounded by the relative with the subject exhibition Collective Threads: Anna Andreeva at the Red Rose Silk Factory. This initiative was implemented by Helenos Consulting, a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, and aimed at engaging domain professionals, including foresight and fashion experts.

Europe’s Research and Innovation (R&I) system is entering a period of profound change. Demographic decline, rapid technological shifts, and constrained funding are beginning to alter student intake, the graduate pipeline, and research career prospects. By 2050, Europe’s population structure will look markedly different:

• The share of people aged 85+ will more than double, reaching around 10% of the population.
• The workforce is expected to shrink by 12%—equivalent to roughly 25 million people.
• The EU will have over 3 million fewer young people under 20, reducing the talent pool entering education and research.

These shifts raise fundamental questions for the future of Europe’s R&I landscape. To address them, DG Research & Innovation commmissioned a study “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe”, which explores possible futures for Europe's R&I system and highlights how demographic pressure could become a driver of renewal and transformation. 

The study delivers:

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding.
• A six-step foresight approach combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges.
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system.
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, enable lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology

A comprehensive version of the study is available for download at the bottom the page. It presents a detailed overview of the methodological framework (including desk research, stakeholder mapping, workshop design, and data collection and analysis) along with the corresponding data and survey findings. 

The Signals Cards present emerging issues identified through the ESPAS Horizon Scanning activity. Apart from using them to inform the regular Horizon Scanning newsletters, they work well as conversation starters in (foresight) workshops to get people into the right headspace to think about and interact with the future. The Signal Cards are a fun and interactive tool ideal for workshops to expand thinking, foster imagination and explore different potential futures. 

How to use the cards

Instructions provided with the cards contain four different short exercises that can be used at the beginning of a workshop to broaden the thinking, spark imagination and encourage looking forward.

You can start your workshop with a quick exercise to

📌 find relevant signals of change for your topic

📌 challenge the common perspective

📌 explore different aspects of novelty or

📌 think about the culminating effects various signals might have together.

If you have more time, you can dive deeper into the signals and explore their potential impacts for example in the beginning of a (foresight) project. Participants can envision a world where some of the signals become reality and brainstorm what might be the consequences. This can help to pinpoint areas for further analysis. You can find detailed instructions for all these exercises in the Signal Cards file. Or feel free to create your own activities with the Signals Cards!

Download the Signal Cards, follow the enclosed detailed instructions and see how they can transform your next workshop.

Print the chosen cards (ideally on thick paper, 2 pages per A4 sheet to get A5 sized cards) or paste them as pictures to a digital platform for online workshops.

Read more from the blog.

This report presents an analysis on the topic of resilience of the stories selected from the #OurFutures initiative. These stories — envisioning life in 2040 — provide unique insights into how people across the EU perceive Europe's capacity to remain resilient amid multiple transformative challenges.
This thematic analysis supports the European Commission’s 2025 Strategic Foresight Report on resilience . It therefore focuses on stories that explicitly reference the role and position of Europe, its institutions, and its collective future.

The report identifies eight major challenge areas shaping perceptions of Europe's resilience, with climate and democracy emerging as particularly cross-cutting themes. The analysis also explores the optimistic and pessimistic visions citizens express about Europe’s future – on the one hand those describing a Europe that has responded to its challenges through transformation, and on the other, those that foresee institutional collapse, authoritarian drift, climate catastrophe, and social fragmentation. Five key tensions structure the debates within the stories, revealing the difficult trade-offs that Europe must navigate to remain resilient. Potential shocks that citizens anticipate underscore where citizens feel Europe is most vulnerable and where resilience must be strengthened.

Despite their concerns, storytellers propose a wide range of concrete strategies to enhance European resilience, many of them emphasizing systemic reform and long-term thinking. The report synthesizes citizens’ views on Europe’s role in the world.

EIT Food Consumer Observatory is organising online workshops focusing on the consumer acceptance of functional and processed food and alternative proteins by 2035. The online workshops are organised on September 11 and 18, from 10 to 13 hours CET. This is an open invitation to participate. It is free, just write us to consider your participation and learn more about the process: info@if-institute.org

What to expect in the workshops:
Before the workshops: Read this brief background document to familiarise yourself with the approach and prepare for the workshops.
During the workshops: Discuss and participate by writing your comments via MS Teams chat and the Miro board sticky notes. Note that the workshops will be recorded to enable automated transcription in Teams.
After the workshops: The expert team will develop scenario narratives, which are presented and discussed further in another workshop on November 4th 10-13 CET, which allows the reflection of scenario implications for the current agrifood ecosystem. Finally, a policy brief will be published end of the year.

Last year, we did a similar process focusing on the future of new food products and experiences and One Health. More information here:
https://if-institute.org/futures-of-food-consumption-in-2035-in-europe-on-sustainability-health-and-technology 

A new initiative to support EU Member States in embedding long-term, anticipatory thinking into decision-making at every level—national, regional, and local. 

Future-Oriented Policymaking is an ongoing joint project by the European Commission Directorate-General for Structural Reform Support (DG REFORM) and the EU Policy Lab of the Joint Research Centre. The project supports foresight capacity building in EU Member States and integrating future-oriented thinking into decision-making.

The project supports foresight capacity building in EU Member States and integrating future-oriented thinking into decision-making.

Get involved!
The success of the project depends on the active participation of policymakers, practitioners, and citizens. Whether you are an experienced foresight practitioner or entirely new to the concept, we welcome your insights.

Share ideas, take our survey*: Help us understand your needs and shape the final deliverables. What has worked well in your context? What challenges have you faced? How can we make foresight more relevant to your needs? > Survey

Join our beta testing group**: Be among the first to try out our new toolkit and training materials. Your feedback will help us refine and improve these resources for everyone (fill in the survey and click join beta testing group at the end).

* Preferably before 12 September 2025 to make full use of your ideas.

* *Places for beta testing are limited, and we are committed to working with a diverse range of partners. If you are interested, please fill in the survey by 5/09/2025 . We will confirm participation after that date. Institutionalising future-oriented policymaking is a collective journey, which requires commitment, curiosity, and courage: from leaders, civil servants, and citizens alike. Let’s work together to make foresight a cornerstone of European policymaking. 

Stay tuned for updates and don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to contribute to this exciting initiative.

> Future-oriented Policymaking 

Romania’s public administration faces deep-rooted structural challenges that hinder the development of digital competencies and slow progress in both digital transformation and human resources management (HRM) reforms. While digital competencies are essential to achieving Romania’s public sector modernization goals, they are not a standalone solution. In this context, the government of Romania, assisted by the World Bank through the Technical Support Instrument (TSI), aims to develop a General Digital Competence Framework for Civil Servants.

This report if one of the outputs of the TSI project; its goal is to identify the digital competencies necessary at the intersection of Romania’s digital transformation and HRM reform agendas, laying the groundwork for a more capable and future-ready public administration. The report employs a comprehensive multi-layered analysis, incorporating: a top-down review of national and EU strategies, policies, and regulations; a bottom-up analysis of job descriptions, focus groups, interviews, and working groups; international best practices in public sector digital competencies; and a foresight perspective to anticipate future digital skill needs.

Chapter VI | Foresight: fit-for-future digital roles in the public administration describes the foresight exercise carried out by Institutul de Prospectiva and the World Bank, which was aimed at ensuring that the proposed digital competency framework will remain future-ready, enabling civil servants to navigate digital transformation, deliver citizen-centric services, and address complex policy challenges with agility and innovation. The process was meant to inform the definition of specific digital roles that are needed in the future, but also to allow the formulation of recommendations regarding the general digital competencies of public administration employees.

The foresight methodology utilized horizon scanning and scenarios (both explorative and normative), as essential tools in helping policymakers navigate uncertainty by exploring various probable and/or desirable futures. This foresight exercise focused on the year 2032, a timeframe suited for significant structural transformation in public administration, allowing for the development and maturity of complex digital systems.

In terms of process, the scenario-building process was based on an iterative consultation process. It built on inputs developed by the foresight team from Institutul de Prospectiva and was progressively refined through three online working sessions with international experts from the World Bank and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and a final in-person workshop with local experts from the public administration and the private sector in Romania.
The figure below provides a concise overview of the scenario-building steps.

📌The Baseline Scenario “Romanian Digital Administration in 2032” provides a ‘current paradigm’ case: It takes the current Romanian strategic documents in the field of digital transformation as a starting point. It assumes that the key goals set in these
documents are generally met by 2032. The logic is the following: assuming Romania’s current digitalization paradigm (and
associated digital roles) turn out mostly as planned, what is the gap between this best-case baseline and the digital society scenarios for 2032?

📌The Context Scenario about the “Digital society in Romania in 2032” is an exploratory scenario, meaning it describes a probable future rather than one driven by a deliberate vision of a desirable future society. The core scenario integrates high-impact, high-probability trends - or drivers of change -identified in the initial horizon scanning phase. While these drivers describe the evolution of the European and global contexts, their advancement has been partially adjusted to reflect specific conditions in Romania. In addition to the core scenario, four other narratives were built around drivers of change previously identified as having high impact as well as a rather high degree of uncertainty. These new dimensions largely complement rather than challenge the core scenario.

📌The five Aspirational Scenarios 2032 describe visions regarding the digital transformation of the Romanian public administration, going beyond the trajectory set in the baseline scenario. They examine a range of potential paths/options that could contribute, individually or in various combinations, to a more ambitious and impactful digital transformation in the public administration. Each scenario revolves around a key dimension. Primarily, these dimensions emerge from Romania’s current policy discourse and strategic documents, where they are often mentioned but with limited precision or commitment. Additionally, they reflect elements of the context scenario, incorporating anticipated societal developments by 2032, as
well as digital trends and paradigm shifts observed in public administrations in the EU and worldwide.

A list of key digital roles follows the baseline and aspirational scenarios, outlining the expertise civil servants need to bring them to life. These roles do not distinguish between in-house and outsourced expertise, as that remains a separate decision.

This study involves the execution of a comprehensive, two-year foresight exercise on next-generation online platforms. Using participatory foresight techniques, the study team will analyse the potential impacts of the rapidly evolving platform ecosystem on the European Union's society and economy. The study aims to enhance the Commission's understanding of the potential challenges and opportunities associated with the ongoing platformisation trends in various policy areas. In addition, the study will contribute to strengthening the European Commission's capabilities in using participatory foresight techniques to inform policymaking in the future. The study comprises 10 policy papers delivered in three sets. The study will harness the participatory foresight methodology to achieve its objectives. Participatory foresight is a technique focused on exploring different future scenarios and their impacts while actively engaging stakeholders in co-creation and co-assessment exercises. For each set of policy papers, the foresight process will include analysis and synthesis of pertinent technological and societal trends, assessment of various wildcards and the definition of the main scenarios and impacts. Some of the methods used in the study include visioning, roadmapping, backcasting and scenario analysis. For each set of policy papers, the study team will organise two participatory foresight meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders.

The study represents the Commission’s commitment, outlined in its 2023 Communication on the functioning of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), to address emerging challenges in the sector. It aligns with the Commission's definition of foresight as “the discipline of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future to inform today’s decision-making.” This participatory study places fishers at its core, integrating their perspectives into the development of future scenarios and fisher profiles to inform strategic policymaking for a sustainable, competitive and resilient EU fishing sector, as part of the wider blue economy. It does not present policy proposals, which was never the intention, rather it serves to stimulate further the important debate on securing and giving a perspective on the future of EU fishers.

European Commission: European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, F&S, IPSOS, POSEIDON, Tetra Tech, Davies, M., Macfadyen, G., Brugere, C., Chiarelli, N., Dale, F.Caillart, B., Foresight study on fishers of the future – Final report , Publications Office of the European Union, 2024;

📣 YouthDecide 2040 is looking for participants to join our regional workshops and co-create the future of European democracy!

Be part of a one-and-a-half-day immersive workshop where diverse voices come together to imagine and shape resilient, thriving European democracies.

🗣️💬 Through creative, participatory foresight activities, we will explore different visions of democracy in 2040—your perspective matters!

🧭 The wider, the better
Are you a European resident over 18? This call is for you!
We're fostering intergenerational discussions on the future of European democracy, centring youth voices (18-34).

🔓 The call for applications will remain open through May 2025. 

At Futures4Europe, we had the pleasure of chatting with Petranka Malcheva, Policy Lead for Health, Long Term Thinking and Prevention at the Office of the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales. Her mission is to reduce health inequalities in Wales and to shift the focus from treatment to prevention guided by Wales’ pioneering Futures Generations Act. Petranka also leads the work on long-term thinking, supporting Wales’ public sector organisations to increase capabilities, skills and balancing short-term urgent issues without compromising the well-being of people living in the future.

Petranka will address the role of “Collective Intelligence” in Foresight for Research and Innovation Policy at the upcoming Futures4Europe Conference 2025, held in Vienna on the 15-16 May 2025.

The third Mutual Learning Event (MLE) of project Eye of Europe took place online on January 21st, 2025. As a Coordination and Support Action, project Eye of Europe aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into the Research and Innovation (R&I) policy-making across Europe and to nurture a vibrant, cohesive R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions.

Over forty participants from diverse stakeholder groups joined the event: Eye of Europe partner organizations, representatives from the European Commission, R&I funding agencies, representatives of governmental bodies. Expert presentations of two European and one national foresight exercises showcased diverse practices for integrating foresight results into the R&I policy cycle and formed the basis for vivid discussions in three interactive sessions.

Presentations:

• Project coordinator Radu Gheorghiu (UEFISCDI, Romania) introduced the Eye of Europe project as a social infrastructure supporting the strenghtening of the European foresight community. To this end, Eye of Europe hosts a series of activities: five mutual learning events, eleven pilot foresight activities and two conferences - highlighting the upcoming Futures4Europe conference to be held in Vienna on May 15-16, 2025. Moreover, the project enabled the upgrade of the platform futures4europe.eu to better serve its role as the online home of a vibrant and inclusive European foresight community. Multiple new improvements of the platform were shared in the closing section of the event.
• Moderator of the event Lenka Hebáková (TC Prague, Czech Republic) followed up with an introduction on the event´s aims and agenda.
• Nikos Kastrinos (former EC) shared about the Foresight on Demand project "Foresight towards the Second Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe”, providing insights into how foresight was employed and linked with the policy cycle in the period of HE strategies setting.
• “Megatrends 2050 in a Changing World and their Impact on Portugal” presented by Monica Isfan (PlanAPP, Portugal) showcased Portugal's experience with embedding foresight in the context of strategic planning.
• Klaus Kubeczko (AIT, Austria) and Jürgen Wengel (former EC) shared about the Foresight on Demand project “S&T&I 2050: Science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance : accelerating sustainability transitions“ on mapping the relationship between emerging trends in science, technology and innovation and ecosystem performance in the context of the European Green Deal. Moreover, the presentation highlighted the project's engagement of a wide range of STI experts in a Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey.

This event is the third in a series of five MLEs planned in the project; the following event will be held beginning April 2025 in Budapest. All Eye of Europe MLEs are organized by Technology Centre Prague (TC), Eye of Europe partner and key Czech national think tank and academia based NGO with a rich experience with knowledge-based policy making support and (participatory as well as expert based) foresight activities.

This document provides guidance on how to conduct a structured horizon scanning process to identify emerging developments that could have potential impact in the future, and in particular on the environment. It starts with an overview of the guide (Chapter 1) and an introduction to horizon scanning (Chapter 2) in connection with the concept of futures literacy. It then provides a step-by-step approach for conducting a structured horizon scanning process (Chapter 3), including a variety
of diverse sources for spotting signals, different frameworks for signal scanning and several options to unpack and analyse the collected signals and patterns of change through creative methods and exercises. It also proposes a few different and complementary ways of communicating the findings to relevant stakeholders, networks and communities. Lastly, it suggests some tools (Chapter 4) that can be used to strengthen the scanning process. The annexes offer a detailed comparison of such tools and a glossary of terms related to futures literacy.

Foresight and societal resilience are intimately linked. Foresight processes generate insights and relationships that help communities in dealing with uncertainty. Through Foresight – so scholars argue – communities gain a richer understanding of the potential of the present and strengthen the social fabric in its ability to act upon these insights, from coping and adaptation to transformation.
So far goes the theory …
The FUTURESILIENCE project has set out on a jour ney exploring foresight’s contribution to societal resilience in practice.
Ten “FUTURESILIENCE Labs ” located in ten different regions across Europe have embarked on a scenario process to strengthen resilience in the face of very different challenges. In the meantime, the ten Labs are in the middle of their journey - here is a sneak preview into two of the Labs:
The IMMER Lab aims at strengthening the local resilience of mobility and energy-related activities in the cross-border Strasbourg-Kehl region. To this end, the Lab is using a science fiction-based Futures Café approach where actors from municipalities co-develop and discuss a range of science-fiction based crisis scenarios such as e.g. a Tsunami in the Rhine River Valley. In its recent Futures Café workshop , after exploring a range of different scenarios, the group discovered seven actions that were useful across scenarios and therefore highly likely to underpin crisis resilience.
The COSIGHT Lab is located in the German city of Hamburg. It aims to mitigate societal polarization and enhance societal resilience by increasing conflict resolution and problem-solving skills. This involves developing resilience-promoting citizen processes. To this end it is complementing an existing participatory process, the “CoSaturday”, with the FUTURESILIENCE scenario approach. The first COSIGHT workshop focused on the integration of migrant populations – a much-contested issue in Hamburg. The first workshop gathered more than 35 integration stakeholders from a wide range of backgrounds. Participants identified key influencing factors of integration, barriers for successful integration and tools to address these barriers. COSIGHT is now looking to transfer these findings to local policy makers.
Experience from these Labs seems to confirm the theoretical argument. A particular strength lies in the rich diversity of approaches. Even though the FUTURESILIENCE project provided an overarching guideline for a scenario process, each Lab interpreted this process according to the local specific requirements and capacities as IMMER and COSIGHT illustrate. As FUTURESILIENCE evolves, we will highlight further glimpses into the manifold discoveries made during the Labs’ foresight journey.