As innovation has a profound impact on many aspects of political, economic, social, and
geostrategic environment worldwide, the Region of Central Macedonia closely follows the
developments, trends and variables that favor and support it or negatively affect its development.
Stakeholders, private and public sector executives and citizens, explored through a
participatory and dynamic process (Thematic Participatory Workshop) the variables that will
affect the innovation and entrepreneurship environment of the region by 2040, identified their
dynamics and evaluated their interaction. The findings were the input of the working group
for the development of five scenarios that will determine the future of innovation in Central
Macedonia over the next fifteen years. Building upon scenario-driven insights, seven strategic
policy recommendations have been formulated to systematically strengthen regional resilience
mechanisms and prepare communities for diverse conditions across different alternative
futures (five scenarios): Development, Collapse, Transformation and Discipline.
The seven examined Megatrends that directly or indirectly affect the region and may affect
innovation developments are Climate Change & Environmental Degradation, Resource
Depletion, the Demographic Problem, Urbanization and Growth of the Middle Class,
Technological Explosion, Hyperconnectivity and Cybersecurity, the Dawn of the Global
South and Polarization. Digital transformation, changes in the employment model, digital
nomads, the rise of populist parties and woke agendas, trust in institutions, urban farming, a
shift in urban agriculture, pressure on social welfare systems and the health sector, geopolitical
turmoil, brain drain, crowdfunding, tightening of the legislative framework for the protection of
intellectual rights and personal data, strict environmental regulations and greenwashing will
be some of the effects of these forces.
In a narrow context, scanning the future identified four Drivers of Change that have a significant
impact on the area of innovation and require the attention of policymakers: (a) Political Unrest
and Confused Democracy, (b) Employment 4.0: Transition to new work conditions, (c) The
Era of Convergence: Digital Superiority and Skills, and finally (d) Social Values as a Lever
for Legislative Change."
However, the innovative environment in the future can be identified through a wide range of
scenarios. The need to develop a set of distinct scenarios led to the study of uncertainties
that affect the environment in an unpredictable way, interact with each other drastically and
play a key role in understanding the conditions that will be created in the future of innovation
in the region, and in choosing five uncertainties that their developments over time define the
futures we chose, as most likely to shape the innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem in
the region of Central Macedonia. The five Uncertainties highlighted by the working group are:
[1] Political and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Buckle up, turbulence expected
[2] Business Uncertainty: Anticipated Outcomes and Corporate Transformations
[3] Regulatory Frameworks for Innovation: Ethics Considerations, Strategic Directions
and Development
[4] Navigating the Era of Disconnection: Addressing Workplace Loneliness and Social
Uncertainty [5] The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism.
This study was realized for the Region of Central Macedonia, GR and was co-funded from the European Union (ΕΣΠΑ 2021-2027)
