This report of the European Foresight Platform (EFP) reports on a regional foresight programme carried out in 2011–2013 in the Antofagasta region of Chile (Dufva et al., 2016). Organised by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the programme formed part of a broader joint project with the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) that aimed at innovation-driven, sustainable economic development of the region. Its purposes were to improve foresight capability in the region, especially among the partner organisations, to enhance collaboration between industry, government and research organisations, and to support the creation of a strategic research agenda on a topic chosen by the partners. The time horizon was 2040.

The programme built on the Pact for Regional Development and Innovation signed by public and private actors in the Antofagasta region in March 2008, which sought economic growth and equality, better jobs and a path towards sustainable development. Chile looked to Finland as an example of how a resource-driven economy can become knowledge-driven when development strategies and policies are well chosen. Antofagasta is also an extreme risk area for ecological change: climate change and contamination from mining have had lasting effects on regional water supplies, and melting glaciers and the overuse of groundwater call for a significant redesign of water use.

The foresight activities had two parts. A three-day hands-on workshop in Antofagasta trained participants in futures thinking and in methods such as scenarios, roadmapping and Delphi, supported by a learning package with a glossary and a project website, and ended with group work on planning a foresight project for the region. On this basis, VTT and CICITEM selected the topic of a foresight pilot for its importance and relevance to different stakeholders. The pilot combined scenario and roadmapping work through a conference, two stakeholder workshops, a stakeholder survey, interviews with mining companies and a reflection discussion with CICITEM experts. VTT provided guidance and support, but the emphasis was on learning by doing for CICITEM researchers, who worked with researchers from local universities, representatives of local SMEs, government officials and mining companies.

Drawing on the process and the foresight literature, the authors developed a multi-layered framework for analysing the contributions of foresight (Dufva et al., 2015). At the landscape layer, foresight connects the region to the global context, helping participants to see Antofagasta as part of a larger system and to find its niche in global markets. At the innovation-system layer, it supports joint strategy formulation and a shared vision; stakeholder analysis helped to choose a suitably controversial topic that was interesting for all stakeholder groups and committed them to the process. At the organisational layer, the pilot generated new ideas about the role and mission of CICITEM, although not every researcher saw its benefit and some were reluctant to participate, which shows how a foresight process is entangled with organisational dynamics. At the individual layer, learning by doing gave participants experience in scoping, designing, implementing and documenting foresight; one CICITEM researcher reflected that he had learned to bring ideas 'high up in the sky down to earth'.

The report draws three implications for policy-making and practice. Foresight should be designed with multiple layers in mind, with particular attention to individuals, since changes in mindsets and worldviews through learning are what carry change into organisations and innovation systems. The nature of the effects varies between layers: knowledge produced weighs more at the landscape and innovation-system layers, whereas capabilities gained matter more at the organisational and individual layers. Finally, the layers can be used to structure the effects of foresight, showing that there is more to foresight than its immediate tangible outcomes and that a successful process can change the capacity of an organisation or a community to anticipate the future and, through that, contribute to regional transformation.

References

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010 

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2016). Building regional foresight capability in Antofagasta, Chile (EFP Brief No. 260). European Foresight Platform. https://if-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Building_Regional_Foresight_in_Antofagasta_Chile_EFP-Brief-No.260.pdf 

La Palma Research Centre hosted the Foresight Methodology Workshop of the Horizon 2020 project Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis (MICA) in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria on 10–11 May 2017. The project was concerned with intelligence on mineral raw materials, and the workshop looked at how foresight methods could serve that purpose. My contribution drew on a set of international foresight exercises carried out over the previous decade, ranging from regional foresight in a Chilean mining region to European horizon scanning and global roadmapping in manufacturing (Könnölä, 2017). This post revisits the presentation and its four key messages: foresight serves the whole policy cycle, foresight designs are always customised, foresight tools are never the first step, and the value of foresight depends on engaging the 'client'. The slides are attached.

1. Foresight for the whole policy cycle

Foresight is often associated with the early stages of policy-making, when agendas are set and long-term visions are articulated. Its contribution, however, extends across the whole policy cycle. In agenda setting, foresight offers visions, a better understanding of change and greater legitimacy and transparency in the choice of priorities. In policy definition, it generates policy options and new ideas and builds ownership among those who will implement them. Ex-ante impact assessment benefits from the exploration of impacts under alternative futures, while implementation can draw on new policy configurations and a more responsive system. Evaluation, in turn, gains from prospective considerations, closing a learning loop that feeds the next round of agenda setting (Könnölä, 2017).

Underlying this is a view of the future as open. The 'futures cone' distinguishes between possible, plausible, probable and preferable futures, with business as usual forming only a narrow strand within a much wider space of potential developments (Voros, 2003). Foresight exercises differ in which part of the cone they address. Some concentrate on probable developments to support planning, others explore the plausible and the possible to test strategies against surprise, and many seek to articulate preferable futures that stakeholders are willing to work towards.

The regional foresight programme in Antofagasta, Chile, illustrated these contributions in a setting close to the interests of the raw materials community. Between 2011 and 2013, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland cooperated with the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) to improve the human capacities of CICITEM as a facilitator of regional innovation, especially in knowledge and technology management. The cooperation pursued capacity building in institutional leadership, knowledge management, innovation culture and innovation capabilities; self-sustained innovation capacity at CICITEM; and the capability to create a strategic vision for regional innovation and to facilitate joint innovation activities in the mining cluster (Dufva et al., 2016). Water, under pressure from climate change and mining, became the focus of the foresight pilot.

The contributions of the exercise can be read at four levels (Dufva et al., 2015). At the landscape level, participants gained a better understanding of global developments and networks and of Antofagasta's position in the global system, together with skills to scan and project these developments and engagement with international stakeholders. At the innovation-system level, the exercise identified key barriers and drivers in the regional system and its water-related sub-systems, actions to overcome the barriers and a vision of a desired future, and it brought stakeholders from different sectors together for the first time. At the organisational level, it produced a roadmap for research related to water and mining, strengthened the foresight culture and capability of CICITEM and improved its contacts and status. At the individual level, participants improved their understanding of the regional context and of futures thinking and learnt to conduct foresight through training and hands-on engagement in the design and management of the exercise. VTT's own innovation programme on the mineral economy pointed in a similar direction, combining competences such as hydrometallurgy, powder metallurgy and life cycle assessment with business models and foresight, and working towards a circular mineral economy based on valuable element recovery, residue utilisation, substitution of critical raw materials, remanufacturing, reuse and recycling (Könnölä, 2017).

2. Foresight designs are always customised

There is no single foresight method and no standard design. In the mapping of regional foresight exercises presented in the talk, literature review, scenarios, expert panels, futures workshops, brainstorming and SWOT analysis were the most frequently used methods, followed by questionnaires and surveys, trend extrapolation, interviews, environmental scanning, Delphi and megatrend analysis, while backcasting, stakeholder mapping, key technologies, structural analysis and technology roadmapping were used less often (Könnölä, 2017). Methods can be positioned along several dimensions: quantitative and qualitative, face-to-face and online, intuitive and rational, subjective and objective, creative and evidence-based. Good designs tend to combine methods across these dimensions rather than settle at one end of each.

Much of the value lies in integration. A typical integrated process begins with the search for signals and moves on to creating, curating and evaluating drivers. The drivers are clustered and structured into scenarios, from which success scenarios are defined. Roadmaps then reorganise the drivers, create solutions and evaluate them against the scenarios before the most promising ones are selected, after which the process turns to analysing future markets, identifying partners and defining actions (Könnölä, 2017). Three cases from the talk show how such combinations are tailored to purpose.

The first, 'Facing the Future', was a horizon scanning exercise carried out in 2009 by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) (Boden et al., 2010). Horizon scanning was organised around four interlinked activities: scoping, scanning, synthesising and coordinating. BEPA and JRC-IPTS selected six areas of analysis in February; forward-looking reports were reviewed and synthesised to identify issues in March; an online survey of 270 experts assessed the issues in April; multi-criteria analyses of the survey results followed in May; an expert workshop with 19 experts and 22 policy-makers combined the issues in June; and the final report was compiled by November. The multi-criteria analysis used RPM Screening (Könnölä et al., 2007) to compare issues under alternative preference structures. A mean-oriented analysis ranked relevance above novelty and probability, a rare-event-oriented analysis gave priority to inverse probability, and a variance-oriented analysis highlighted issues on which expert views diverged. Issues that scored well independently of the criteria preferences could thus be distinguished from those whose position depended on how the criteria were weighted, which made the prioritisation transparent and traceable (Könnölä et al., 2012).

The second case was a Web 2.0 foresight platform set up by JRC-IPTS for the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) (Haegeman et al., 2012). After preparation and a pilot, the platform opened a first phase for collecting ideas and a second phase for assessing them. Once the platform closed, a first report on the ideas was presented to the EIT Governing Board, and a background document prepared the ground for a workshop with selected experts and Board members, which led to the final report. The online and face-to-face stages were designed to complement each other, so that broad participation could be combined with focused deliberation among decision-makers.

The third case, the IMS2020 project on intelligent manufacturing systems, showed the particular challenges of global foresight (Cagnin & Könnölä, 2014). The process combined mapping, two online surveys, workshops on key area topics (KAT) and interviews. Drivers were grouped under policy and governance (e.g. aligned and coordinated policy and regulation, global multi-level collaboration, collective values and behaviours), industrial and international R&D cooperation (e.g. breakthrough technologies, cooperation across value chains, new markets, standardisation and knowledge management) and knowledge and society (e.g. education, competences and skills, energy, natural resources and environmental footprint). Scenario design options ranged from two-axis matrices to morphological combinations of factors. The IMS2020 scenarios were built on a policy and governance axis and an international industrial R&D axis, nested with knowledge society and environmental sustainability dimensions, and four snapshots were positioned within this space. The resulting vision called for rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing leading to customised and 'eternal' life-cycle solutions, for highly flexible and self-organising value chains, and for sustainable manufacturing made possible by cultural change among individuals and corporations and by a regulatory framework co-designed by governments, industries and societies. The final roadmap linked research and technological development topics, research actions and their expected impacts, and KAT visions and objectives to the IMS2020 vision over horizons of one to three, three to seven, seven to ten and ten to fifteen years.

3. Foresight tools are never the first step

A wide range of tools is available to support foresight, many of them digital. Technology maps visualise technology and patent landscapes at different levels of detail, helping clients to define strategic objectives, explore their position and follow innovation dynamics; at the Insight Foresight Institute these were developed in partnership with Tecmine. Online foresight platforms, developed with Orchidea, support structured engagement of stakeholders and experts through the submission, commenting and assessment of emerging issues, innovation ideas and challenges, with filtering and graphical presentation of results. RPM Screening, based on Robust Portfolio Modelling, allows interactive multi-criteria analysis of issues according to relevance, novelty, feasibility or other criteria (Könnölä et al., 2007, 2012). Online surveys run on commercial platforms make consultation user-friendly and efficient to manage, with flexible export of results (Könnölä, 2017).

None of these tools should be the starting point. They are always tailored to the needs of the client, and their value depends on the quality of the scoping, the questions asked and the people engaged. A technology map without a clear strategic question, or an online platform without a community willing to contribute, tends to produce data rather than insight. The choice of tools follows from the purpose of the exercise and from the policy or strategy process it is meant to inform.

4. Engaging the 'client'

The conclusions drew these experiences together. Complexity and uncertainty call for foresight and resilience. Different future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) systems are complementary, and their diversification strengthens the capacity to anticipate. Methods are best combined in a modular and responsive way, so that the design can adapt as the process unfolds. Close interaction with sponsors and clients is needed throughout, from scoping to the use of results, because foresight creates value only when its insights are taken up in decisions (Könnölä, 2017). For the raw materials community, these lessons suggest building foresight into the policy cycle, combining scanning, scenarios and roadmaps in designs tailored to the questions at hand, and engaging policy-makers, industry and researchers from the outset.

Access to the presentation: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158?utm_source=clipboard_share_button&utm_campaign=slideshare_make_sharing_viral_v2&utm_variation=control&utm_medium=share 

References

Boden, J. M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223

Cagnin, C., & Könnölä, T. (2014). Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems. Futures, 59, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.007

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010

Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2016). Building regional foresight capability in Antofagasta, Chile (EFP Brief No. 260). European Foresight Platform. https://if-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Building_Regional_Foresight_in_Antofagasta_Chile_EFP-Brief-No.260.pdf

Haegeman, K., Cagnin, C., Könnölä, T., & Collins, D. (2012). Web 2.0 foresight for innovation policy: A case of strategic agenda setting in European innovation. Innovation: Management, Policy & Practice, 14(3), 446–466. https://doi.org/10.5172/impp.2012.14.3.446

Könnölä, T. (2017, May 10–11). Foresight methods and practice: Lessons learned from international foresight exercises [Presentation slides]. Foresight Methodology Workshop, Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis project, Las Palmas, Spain. https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/foresight-methods-and-practice-lessons-learned-from-international-foresight-exercises/76021158

Könnölä, T., Brummer, V., & Salo, A. (2007). Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(5), 608–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.003

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021

Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379

The Euro-CASE Innovation Platform brings together European academies of engineering to examine the barriers in national innovation systems that prevent innovative SMEs in Europe from scaling up. Its analysis combined a generic review with sector 'deep dives', and the Royal Academy of Engineering of Spain (RAI) led the deep dive on industrialisation. The deep-dive workshop took place in Madrid on 30–31 January 2017, chaired by José Manuel Sanjurjo (RAI), and preparatory foresight was coordinated by Totti Könnölä and Francisco J. Jariego from Insight Foresight Instute.

Building on a background discussion paper and the results of the Euro-CASE survey, the workshop explored industrial innovation towards 2030 through industrial platform ecosystems: value networks that engage industrial providers and customers as well as research and technology organisations, universities, start-ups and other SMEs, investors, public agencies and regulators. Particular attention was paid to the future role of SMEs and the barriers they face in scaling up, and participants drew recommendations to inform European policy-making.

The findings fed into the platform report Barriers to Innovation and Scale-up of Innovative SMEs (Euro-CASE, 2017). Its industrialisation analysis stresses that keeping an advanced production base competitive remains a high priority; that jobs will shift from the physical towards cyber and convergence domains; that much of SMEs' existing software and hardware may become obsolete; and that policy should foster broad collaboration across incumbents and newcomers, sectors and public and private actors, much of it organised around digital platforms, with a focus on transformation rather than on correcting market failures alone.

References

Euro-CASE. (2017). Barriers to innovation and scale-up of innovative SMEs (Euro-CASE Innovation Platform report). https://www.euro-case.org/wp-content/uploads/Eurocase/Publications/PDF/Euro-CASE_Innovation-Platform-II-Report.pdf

Euro-CASE. (n.d.). Euro-CASE platforms: Innovation. https://www.euro-case.org/?p=35001

Insight Foresight Instit ute. (2017, March 31). SMEs, innovation and industrialisation for Europe 2030. https://if-institute.org/smes-innovation-and-industrialisation-for-europe-2030 

Between 2011 and 2013, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the Chilean Mining Technological and Scientific Research Centre (CICITEM) carried out a regional foresight programme in Antofagasta, Chile's leading mining region, funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. The programme was part of a broader joint project to enhance innovation-driven, sustainable economic development in the region. It built on the 2008 Pact for Regional Development and Innovation in the Antofagasta Region and on Chile's interest in how Finland moved from a resource-driven to a knowledge-driven economy. The region also faces acute ecological pressures, not least on water supplies affected by climate change and mining.

The foresight activities pursued three aims: improving foresight capability in the region, especially among the partner organisations; strengthening collaboration between industry, government and research organisations; and supporting a strategic research agenda on a topic chosen by the partners. A three-day hands-on workshop in Antofagasta introduced futures thinking and methods such as scenarios, roadmapping and Delphi. A foresight pilot followed, combining scenario and roadmapping work through a conference, two stakeholder workshops, a stakeholder survey, interviews with mining companies and a final reflection session. VTT experts guided the process, but the emphasis was on learning by doing for CICITEM researchers, working alongside local universities, SMEs, government officials and mining companies, with a time horizon of 2040.

Reflecting on the process, the team developed a four-layer framework (landscape, innovation system, organisation and individual) for analysing how foresight contributes to new knowledge, capabilities and networks. The experience underlines that individuals are the key: changes in their mindsets and skills are what carry foresight into organisations and, ultimately, into regional transformation. The results are reported in EFP Brief No. 260 (Dufva, Könnölä & Koivisto, 2016) and in Dufva, M., Könnölä, T., & Koivisto, R. (2015). Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. Futures, 73, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010 

This policy brief synthesises the outcomes of all ten thematic foresight pilot workshops of the Eye of Europe project (2024–2026), which engaged more than 400 policymakers, researchers, entrepreneurs, citizens and foresight practitioners in Berlin, Bucharest, Madrid, Paris, Prague and Thessaloniki. Building on R&I Policy Brief No. 1, it draws a cross-cutting narrative from the full series. Asked how they perceived the future, participants most often described it as a roller coaster. The brief argues that the underlying problem is not speed as such but a loss of control over direction, and it calls for stepping off the roller coaster through collective transformation towards regenerative futures.

The brief identifies four focal areas for policy action: society, from individual wellness to collective wellbeing; fashion, from ultra-fast fashion to regenerative and immaterial value and identity; food, from efficiency and optimisation to regeneration and resilience; and governance, from reactive firefighting to anticipatory governance. For each area, it traces the shift from accelerated to regenerative paradigms, presents alternative strategies that emerged from the workshops, and sets out R&I policy implications at EU, Member State and regional levels.

Four cross-cutting implications follow for how Europe organises research and innovation: 

• rewarding systemic and interdisciplinary research; 
• treating citizen and stakeholder knowledge as a research input in its own right; 
• nurturing imagination and transformative ambition; 
• and recognising foresight as a European public good, a permanent capacity of ERA governance rather than a project-by-project activity. 

Investment should extend beyond technology to social, institutional and governance innovation, and be aligned vertically across EU, national and regional levels as well as horizontally across policy domains.

This study examinated the medium-term time-horizon (3-8 years) of the emerging infectious diseases (EID) threat spectrum in a manner that draws in multiple streams of contemporary and relevant research into activities focused on the development of plausible scenarios and prevention and control policy options for future infectious disease mitigation. This project drew on expertise from the ECDC and a diverse network of specialists from public health systems, biomedical R&I fields, and infectious disease research to identify and address current gaps in the ECDC’s preparedness for future EID threats. This process used an array of foresight methods and activities to help build strategies to create a robust and resilient system for the detection, identification, and responsiveness to potential future EID events. This system also included capacity building for continuous future-oriented research and monitoring activities as part of an integrated foresight capacity for the ECDC.

The Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform was one of the European Technology Platforms that brought together industry, research and public authorities to define a Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) for the sector. In Finland, a modular foresight process was organised to develop national priorities as Finland's contribution to the European agenda.

The process was based on RPM Screening. More than 100 researchers and business people across five parts of the industry proposed and scored 146 research themes in just seven weeks. Robust Portfolio Modelling identified promising themes, and participatory workshops discussed the results of the multi-criteria analyses. After a demonstration, all value-chain coordinators chose to use the method, and in their workshops it helped focus and catalyse discussion.

More information: http://sra.tkk.fi/ 

WoodWisdom-Net was one of the ERA-NETs supported by the European Union, to deepen collaboration between European funding organisations in wood material science, coordinate the use of research funds and promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster. Its 18 partners from eight countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom) decided to launch a co-funded research programme in wood material science.

To shape the research agenda, a participatory bottom-up consultation was designed with the Systems Analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology. More than 400 researchers, industrialists and other stakeholders took part and proposed 317 research ideas, which were assessed online and prioritised with RPM Screening. Facilitated workshops discussed, validated and synthesised the results, and network analyses supported the identification of possible collaboration networks. The process ended with three groups of funders preparing joint calls for research proposals.

For more information: http://woodwisdom.tkk.fi/ 

In 2009 the Joint Research Centre's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) carried out the foresight study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges' for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The aim was to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response, as part of the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The study combined horizon scanning of 129 forward-looking reports in six areas, a wide online consultation, the prioritisation of issues with RPM Screening and a two-day sense-making workshop that brought together 19 experts from around the world and 22 officials from across the Commission's departments. Participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges and agreed on three overarching challenges for EU action: changing the ways in which essential natural resources are used, anticipating and adapting to societal changes, and more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources.

The final report fed into the strategy work of BEPA and the JRC and was referenced in the Commission's groundwork for the Innovation Union strategy.

Although foresight has become increasingly relevant at the international level, little methodological attention has been given to the challenges that arise from the geographical dispersion of participants or from their national and regional idiosyncrasies. This article addresses these challenges in connection with coordination tools for the Open Method of Coordination, most notably ERA-NETs and European Technology Platforms, which the European Commission facilitates to contribute to the establishment of the European Research Area.

The successful management of these tools calls for multi-stakeholder processes, which place demands such as scalability, modularity and dependability on the design and deployment of foresight methodologies. The article reports experiences from a foresight process conducted in Finland to support the development of the Strategic Research Agenda of the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. The process was based on the RPM Screening methodology, which combined the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research themes, the identification of promising themes through Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM), and participatory workshops where the results of the multi-criteria analyses were discussed.

The encouraging results of the process and the broader potential of Internet-based decision support systems are discussed in view of European coordination tools.

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., & Brummer, V. (2011). Foresight for European coordination: Developing national priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. International Journal of Technology Management, 54(4). https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2011.041583 

This article addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for the Open Method of Coordination, such as ERA-NETs, which the European Commission promotes towards the establishment of the European Research Area. It reports experiences from a consultation process organised within WoodWisdom-Net (ERA-NET) to create an international research agenda, based on the long-term challenges of the European forest sector and on the identification of gaps and new opportunities in wood material science and engineering.

The process involved eighteen funding organisations from eight European countries and over 400 participants, most notably leading researchers and industrialists. It combined the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) to identify promising research issues, and facilitated workshops where the results were discussed, validated and synthesised. Extensive network analyses supported the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.

Drawing on these experiences, the article discusses the broader potential of Internet-based decision support tools and participatory workshops in promoting foresight within ERA-NETs and other European coordination tools.

Brummer, V., Könnölä, T., & Salo, A. (2008). Foresight within ERA-NETs: Experiences from the preparation of an international research program. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(4), 483–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.005 

This report presents the main conclusions of the study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out in 2009 by the Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. Its aim is to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response. The study fed into the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The methodology combined an extensive review of forward-looking studies, a wide online consultation on the identified issues and multi-criteria analysis with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) to prioritise them. In total, 129 forward-looking reports were reviewed across six areas: demography, migration and health; economy, trade and financial flows; environment, energy, climate change and agriculture; research, innovation and education; governance and social cohesion; and defence and security. The key issues were then presented and discussed in a workshop with selected experts and policymakers.

Based on the criteria of urgency, tractability and impact, the workshop identified three challenges with a global scope that require action at EU level: the need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used, the need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes, and the need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. The report sets out policy messages and opportunities for each challenge and highlights the need for building a foresight culture within EU policy-making.

Boden, M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223 

Supported by the European Union (EU), EIT Food is the world's largest food innovation community. Its mission is threefold: healthier lives through food, a net zero food system and a fair and resilient food system. Its Consumer Observatory is Europe's central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. The general and consumer-specific trends, wild cards and weak signals identified by the Observatory provide the basis for this scenario work.

The work continues the 2024 exercise on futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in 2035 in Europe, this time with emphasis on technological advances, specifically on consumer acceptance of processed and functional food and of alternative proteins. In 2025, Insight Foresight Institute engaged the EIT Food community and a broader set of food and foresight experts in three online workshops. The participants made sense of how societal and consumer trends could interrelate, explored alternative scenarios of food consumption by 2035 and reflected on their implications for today's agrifood ecosystem and policy.

Scenarios are not predictions of the likely future, but they depict possible futures, even less likely ones. The narratives are written in the present tense, as if we were already in 2035. Two dimensions structured the work and ensured that each scenario was truly different:

• Acceptance of alternative proteins, covering both traditional alternative proteins for European markets (e.g. tofu, seitan, tempeh and molluscs) and novel ones (e.g. mycoprotein, cultivated meat, precision fermentation and insects).

• Acceptance of processed and functional food, which may be unhealthy or healthy, even highly functional with health benefits and tailored to individual needs.

Crossing the two dimensions gives four scenarios:

• Scenario 1: NATURAL AND LOCAL – Low in processing, low in alternatives

• Scenario 2: WHOLE-FOOD MOSAIC – Low in processing, high in alternatives

• Scenario 3: HIGH-TECH SAVOUR – High in processing, high in alternatives

• Scenario 4: CONVENIENT AND AFFORDABLE – High in processing, low in alternatives

Violent radicalisation and extremism are constantly evolving phenomena, significantly shaped by developments in the wider society in which they emerge. In recent years, this evolution has accelerated considerably. We are witnessing a shift from radicalisation centred primarily around ideologies towards increasingly diverse and hybridised forms of individualised radicalisation, in which ideological boundaries have become increasingly blurred. These developments are strongly influenced, on the one hand, by global conflicts and, on the other, by locally experienced grievances and perceived injustices—often simultaneously.

This transformation has created new conditions for the emergence and spread of extremist ideas, while making it increasingly difficult to identify individuals at risk of radicalisation, as well as the issues and narratives that may rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly encourage or inspire engagement in violent extremist activity. This evolving landscape presents a significant challenge to the prevention of violent extremism and further underlines the importance of foresight.

Violent radicalisation and extremism are constantly evolving phenomena, significantly shaped by developments in the wider society in which they emerge. In recent years, this evolution has accelerated considerably. We are witnessing a shift from radicalisation centred primarily around ideologies towards increasingly diverse and hybridised forms of individualised radicalisation, in which ideological boundaries have become increasingly blurred. These developments are strongly influenced, on the one hand, by global conflicts and, on the other, by locally experienced grievances and perceived injustices—often simultaneously.

This transformation has created new conditions for the emergence and spread of extremist ideas, while making it increasingly difficult to identify individuals at risk of radicalisation, as well as the issues and narratives that may rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly encourage or inspire engagement in violent extremist activity. This evolving landscape presents a significant challenge to the prevention of violent extremism and further underlines the importance of foresight.

The EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation’s first strategic foresight study, commissioned by Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway, examines evolving regional threats, ranging from declining public trust to exclusionary rhetoric. By applying scenario planning, this foundational report provides policymakers and practitioners with actionable tools to strengthen democratic resilience and cross-border prevention strategies.

A Fair Transition Towards Climate Neutrality closes DLR Projektträger's four-part Strategic Foresight series for the future European Partnership on Social Transformations and Resilience (STR). The report examines Europe's path to climate neutrality with a focus on fairness: who bears the costs, who gains the benefits, and how governments keep public trust along the way.

The foresight process combined desk research with input from 168 experts across 22 countries, five in-depth interviews, and a workshop with 42 participants from 17 countries. Together these steps produced 24 trends, then narrowed the field to the ten with the strongest impact on fairness and legitimacy.

Top trends include accelerating climate impacts outpacing adaptation spending, uneven access to clean technology and mobility, and cultural narratives shaping public acceptance of transition policies. The report traces first- and second-order effects for each trend, from strained EU solidarity between regions to widening gaps in local implementation capacity.

Building on these findings, the report sets out a best-case scenario for 2040, built on four pillars: fairness embedded directly into climate governance and fiscal design, protection for households and communities against unequal transition costs, participatory and place-based decision-making, and an inclusive skills transformation keeping workers ready for the shift toward climate neutrality.

 Zero Victory Paradox

New and emerging plant pests can undermine EU food security and farm/forestry incomes through yield losses, trade disruption and costly control measures, while also causing major environmental impacts through biodiversity loss, landscape change and increased pressure to use pesticides.  

Using a comprehensive foresight methodology, this study examines how global trade and tourism, climate change and agricultural systems contribute to the introduction and spread of new and emerging plant pests, assesses current and future pest risks, as well as scientific and technological options for their prevention, detection, and management, and reviews existing EU mechanisms.  

The study develops four scenarios up to 2050 to explore how key uncertainties may shape pest risks and system responses. Based on these insights, it identifies policy options to strengthen prevention, preparedness, and response capacities, supporting future EU policymaking.

This foresight study was conducted by Technopolis Group with experts from the Julius Kühn-Institute for the European Parliament's Panel for the Future of Science and Technology and commissioned by Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) of the European Parliamentary Research Service. 

The report is published on the website of the European Parliament: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2026)788146.

What will it mean to be a researcher in 2040 — and who will decide?
As part of the foresight study The Futures of Researchers' Careers: What Challenges for EU Policy?, funded by DG RTD, set of scenarios was developed to explore how research work in Europe could evolve over the next fifteen years. This summary presents the scenario component of the study: the world research is likely to operate in, and an aspirational alternative to it.

The context: Knowledge in Society 2040
By 2040, at global level research runs on a powerful, ever-present AI layer — an "intelligence infrastructure" that learns from research, industry and society and shapes how knowledge is created, shared and used. It drives three linked shifts: research speeds up as AI opens access to almost all human knowledge and shortens the path from idea to market; power concentrates, as a few "Super Big Tech" actors control the key AI platforms and states compete for strategic advantage; and contestation grows, as trust erodes under a flood of AI-generated output and the gap widens between those AI strengthens and those it leaves behind.

Left on this trajectory, and with current policy lagging behind, research careers come under pressure: a workforce split into tiers with no bridge between them, the value of public research captured by the owners of AI platforms, AI deciding what becomes visible and fundable, and slow recognition of hands-on empirical work and the new roles emerging around AI.

The response: Living Knowledge 2040
Living Knowledge 2040 is the study's aspirational alternative. It assumes the same dynamics as the context scenario — acceleration, concentration and contestation — but channels them toward public value. It is built on four layers:

The core — a Glass Engine, advanced AI that Europe builds and runs as civic infrastructure: transparent, publicly governed, auditable and contestable; and a Commons Authority that keeps it and the wider knowledge ecology in the public interest.
A trustworthy, plural knowledge ecology — where empirical and synthetic knowledge are equally valued, credibility rests on traceability rather than the journal a work appears in, dissenting views are actively surfaced, and collective and once-invisible work is recognised.
New forms of operating — from human–AI swarms and public "Action-Networks" to quest-based research, automated public research infrastructures, and AI-powered entrepreneurship — with careers moving fluidly among them.
An explicit ethos — wellbeing, collective work, public value, openness, meaning and full expression as the values the system is built to serve.

***

How the scenarios were developed

The scenarios are exploratory tools, not predictions: they set out plausible, internally consistent futures against which today's policies can be tested. Three were developed by the Institutul de Prospectiva team and progressively validated and enriched through consultation with the project's International Advisory Board, with one dedicated meeting per scenario type between May and June 2026. Together they trace a path from the world research will operate in, through the gaps in current policy, to an aspirational alternative.

The context scenario ("Knowledge in Society 2040") is global in scope and focuses on how knowledge — and its embodied forms of technologies, policies and norms — is produced, circulated and translated into societal impact. It was built by extrapolating a set of key drivers of change and exploring how they interact and amplify one another, with particular attention to the major actors — scientific communities, states, private-sector actors and society at large — and to the evolving interplay between their strategic, economic and normative interests.

The inertial scenario provides the bridge. It sets out thirteen current challenges facing Europe's research and innovation workforce, grouped into four categories: a fragmented research market; funding and employment structures; the training and socialisation model; and assessment and recognition systems. Each challenge is examined along three dimensions — its current state ("the Now"); its likely 2040 trajectory, assuming balanced optimism about current EU and national policies; and a "context push" that tests that trajectory against the global picture from the context scenario. This surfaces two kinds of tension: those where existing policies fall short of the projected dynamics, and entirely new ones that current frameworks do not yet recognise as problems and that would require genuinely new policy categories.

The aspirational scenario ("Living Knowledge 2040") was built in three steps, starting from the key tensions projected for 2040. These were put through a simplified Causal Layered Analysis that reopened some of the system's underlying premises — who owns the AI infrastructure, how contribution is recognised, how value is capitalised — producing twelve dimensions, each described as a current perspective and a potential shift by 2040. Clustering these dimensions gave the scenario its four-layer structure: the AI infrastructure and its public governance; the principles of the knowledge ecology around it; that ecology's forms of operating; and the overarching values of the ecosystem. Deliberately ambitious but not utopian, it assumes the same forces as the context scenario — pervasive AI, platformisation, concentration and contestation — but channels them toward public value.

HorizonX is an integrated consulting ecosystem, combining expertise in strategy, foresight, innovation and leadership. We bring together decades of execution excellence and forward-looking intelligence, helping organizations prepare for the future and accelerate transformation in a sustainable way.

From our hubs in Vienna, London, and Bucharest, we leverage the combined expertise of a multidisciplinary network operating in over 20 countries. With a legacy of over 25 years through our founding partners, we deliver complex, large-scale transformations across the EMEA region.

The study “Futures of AI: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and EU Policy” explores
plausible trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) development and assesses their implications
for Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. It aims to inform EU R&I policy and contribute
to the development of an AI, recognising AI as a technology with transformative potential across
sectors and long-term structural consequences for investment, governance and strategic
direction.

Key Findings 

• AI development is characterised by uncertainty, path dependencies and competing trajectories
  rather than a single predictable pathway.  
• AI adoption in the EU remains uneven and relatively low, with higher uptake in digitally mature
  and data-intensive sectors such as ICT and professional services; sectors like manufacturing
  and construction lag behind. Where AI is deployed, it is primarily used in supportive roles rather
  than as a transformative force reshaping core business models. 
• Future adoption trajectories diverge across sectoral profiles, ranging from deep integration in
  innovation-led sectors to incremental optimisation in operational sectors and largely
  supplementary use in service-oriented sectors. 
• Several structural barriers constrain broader diffusion, including market fragmentation, the
  dominance of SMEs with limited resources, insufficient access to high-quality and interoperable
  data and shortages of skilled professionals, while investment levels remain fragmented and
  comparatively modest. On the other side, ethical, security and trust concerns continue to shape
  adoption decisions.  
• The EU’s regulatory leadership, particularly through the AI Act, creates both opportunities for
  trust-building and risks of administrative burden if implementation is not carefully managed.  

We help leaders future-proof their business: future-fit strategies, new fields of innovation, navigating uncertainty.

The European Union Drugs Agency’s (EUDA) project “Synthetic Drugs 2050” addressed the growing uncertainty surrounding the future availability, spread, and use of synthetic drugs in Europe up to 2050. Synthetic drugs represent a rapidly evolving and systemic challenge for Europe, affecting public health, security, social cohesion, productivity, and overall wellbeing. Accelerated technological change, globalised supply chains, digitalisation, and increasingly blurred boundaries between legal, illegal, controlled, and uncontrolled substances further amplify the complexity of this issue.

The project applied a participatory strategic foresight approach to explore possible futures of synthetic drugs in Europe, moving beyond short-term monitoring and reactive policy responses. By systematically analysing global and regional drivers of change, emerging trends, weak signals, and deep uncertainties, the project built a shared understanding of how synthetic drugs markets, uses, and impacts may evolve in the medium- and long-term.

Through horizon scanning, trend analysis, scenario building, and sense-making activities, Synthetic Drugs 2050 supports EU-level and national stakeholders in anticipating risks, identifying opportunities, and strengthening policy resilience. The project explicitly linked foresight insights to strategic reflection, policy options, and research priorities, while embedding capacity-building components to enhance futures literacy and long-term preparedness within the EU drug policy ecosystem.

Objectives

The Synthetic Drugs 2050 project encompassed:

• A comprehensive, methodologically robust foresight study on the future availability and use of synthetic drugs in Europe up to 2050, exploring systemic drivers, uncertainties, and disruptive developments across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal, and ethical dimensions.
• Development of multiple plausible future scenarios describing how synthetic drugs diffusion in Europe could evolve by 2050, challenging prevailing assumptions and highlighting non-obvious risks and opportunities.
• Mapping of first-, second-, and third-order implications of synthetic drugs diffusion across Europe, identifying cause–effect pathways, time-bound consequences, and cross-sectoral impacts on health, public safety, governance, and society.
• Support for strategic preparedness and policy resilience by co-developing policy responses, strategic options, and research and innovation priorities at EU and national levels.
• Further development of strengthened foresight capacity and futures literacy within EUDA and its stakeholder community through learning-by-doing, participatory engagement, and the development of reusable foresight tools and frameworks.

Outputs

• Horizon scanning and trend analysis reports
• A set of four future scenarios for synthetic drugs in Europe by 2050
• A mapped system of time-bound implications and cause–effect pathways
• Policy responses and strategic recommendations
• A foresight manual and horizon scanning framework for future use

Find more information here: https://www.euda.europa.eu/index_en

Preamble
Across Europe, the use of foresight for Research and Innovation (R&I) policy is growing, but unevenly. In many places, it still sits at the margins of policymaking, and its full potential—to inspire broader societal change—is not yet realised.

The European R&I foresight community, made up of practitioners, policymakers, researchers, and future-oriented thinkers, is
becoming stronger and more connected. The Eye of Europe project, supported by the European Commission, helps this
community grow through the online hub futures4europe.eu, as well as workshops, conferences and shared learning spaces.

This manifesto stems from a “foresight on foresight” workshop held in Mamaia, Romania (18–19 September 2025), coordinated by UEFISCDI and the Austrian Institute of Technology. 30 foresight practitioners and R&I policy experts from across Europe gathered to imagine how foresight could better support R&I policy and practice. Furthermore, these contents have also been discussed and enriched during Eye of Europe’s final mutual learning event held in Chișinău, Moldova (23–24 October 2025).

This manifesto recognises the growing importance of foresight—not only within European R&I systems but also at the interface between R&I and society—repositioning the field as a driver of inspiration and renewal in shaping Europe’s futures.

Foresight as a Key Social Infrastructure for Europe
Vision 2030 in a nutshell

Research and Innovation (R&I) foresight is a shared space of imagination and inquiry, enabling Europe to live creatively with emergence and diversity. Beyond agenda-setting, it cultivates futures literacy across science, policy, and society — expanding our capacity to sense, interpret, and engage with novelty.

Embracing the open and interdependent nature of the world, foresight complements evidence with creativity and plural ways of knowing. It guides Europe’s research and innovation ecosystems to act with openness, responsibility, and imagination — co-creating sustainable and just futures as a shared public good.

🔵 EXTENDED ROLE OF R&I FORESIGHT
In 2030 R&I foresight enables boundary spanning, connecting sectoral policies, disciplines, and perspectives. Its value lies not only in generating agendas or scenarios, but in reshaping worldviews, reframing challenges, cultivating agency, enabling collective reflection, and inspiring transformative action

🔵 OPEN AND INCLUSIVE SPACES
In 2030 foresight thrives on openness, diversity, and empathy. It creates spaces where people engage not only as experts or institutional actors, but as whole humans— bringing values, worldviews, emotions, and lived experiences into the co-creation of futures.
Trust grows from transparency, fairness, and shared ownership of both processes and outcomes. While AI expands access to knowledge, human judgment, engagement creativity, and responsibility remain essential.

🔵 FUTURES LITERACY AS A FOUNDATIONAL CAPACITY
Futures literacy becomes both a foundation and a legacy of R&I foresight. It strengthens the collective ability to recognise assumptions, navigate uncertainty, and act with intention amid complexity.
Foresight processes evolve into open spaces for learning and experimentation, cultivating anticipatory competence among experts, policymakers, and citizens. Through its practices and communication, R&I foresight contributes to a societal diffusion of futures thinking, enhancing collective intelligence and agency.

🔵 A MATURE COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE
Foresight gains professional depth through dedicated academic programmes and practitioner networks. A wide variety of organisations embed foresight cultures that encourage reflection, experimentation, and communication. Shared infrastructures such as futures4europe.eu evolve into open, dynamic platforms for collaboration, knowledge exchange, and innovation in foresight.

Download the document at the top of the page to read the full version.

Curious about how Europe’s demographic trends may transform the R&I landscape? 

On 10 December 2025, DG Research & Innovation hosted a hybrid event at the DG RTD Library in Brussels to present the Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) study: “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe?”

FOD team members guided the audience through: 

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding. 
• A six-step Foresight Process combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges. 
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system. 
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, foster lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology.

👏 A big thank you to the panelists and speakers:

• Erik Canton (Deputy Head of Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Nicola Francesco Dotti (Chief Economist Unit – Common R&I Strategy and Foresight Service, DG Research & Innovation)
• Brikena Xhomaqi (The Lifelong Learning Platform)
• Alex Petropoulos (Centre for Future Generations)
• Thomas Estermann (European University Association)
• Maciej Krysztofowicz (EU policy Lab, Joint Research Centres)
• Viola Peter (FOD team, Technopolis Group)
• Michal Nadziak (FOD team, 4CF)
• Katarzyna Figiel (FOD team, 4CF) 

And to all participants for an engaging exchange on how to build a more adaptive and resilient EU R&I system. 

In case you missed the event, you can find all the materials below.

We are a futures and forecasting consultancy, composed of data, digital and policy experts. We are trusted and approved suppliers to both the public and private sector.

The Foresight Centre is a think tank at the Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu) that analyses long-term developments in society and identifies emerging trends and potential development pathways. By exploring a range of possible futures, the Centre creates alternative scenarios to support evidence-based policymaking and strategic planning. Its research covers key areas that shape Estonia’s future, including education, healthcare, the economy, labour markets, social welfare, technology, and the environment. Through its analyses, the Foresight Centre helps decision-makers anticipate change and prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead.

This report presents the outcomes of the Geopolitical Industrial Decarbonisation Scenarios workshop, convened on behalf of the Eye of Europe Horizon Europe project by the Insight Foresight Institute. Bringing together 30 participants from across the European Union—including policymakers at EU, national, and regional levels, industry leaders, energy and climate specialists, and foresight and forecasting experts—the workshop explored how the EU can navigate mounting geopolitical uncertainty while accelerating industrial decarbonization on a 2050 horizon.

The discussion was structured around two core aims. First, participants examined a suite of forward-looking geopolitical scenarios, assessing how divergent power dynamics, energy trade patterns, and technological trajectories could either hinder or catalyse the transition to a net-zero industrial base in the EU countries. Particular attention was paid to supply-chain resilience, strategic autonomy in critical materials, and the interplay between carbon border adjustments and global climate diplomacy. Second, the workshop sought to surface emergent research and innovation (R&I) needs and opportunities that would equip EU actors to thrive across the scenarios. Priorities highlighted include advanced electrification processes for hard-to-abate sectors, low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic-fuel value chains, circular-economy business models, and data-driven tools for real-time decarbonisation monitoring.

Outputs from the session feed directly into the Eye of Europe project’s multi-workshop learning cycle. Immediate products comprise this extended report for attendees; aggregated insights captured in the public Pilot Logbook Part I – What we did and Part II – What we learned; and distilled policy recommendations to be released in the Eye of Europe Policy Brief: Foresight Perspectives on Key R&I Topics. Beyond documentation, the Insight Foresight Institute will leverage the findings to stimulate agenda-setting dialogues with EU bodies and industrial stakeholders, ensuring that identified R&I pathways inform Horizon Europe programming and other EU-level funding instruments. Workshop materials and presentations are retrievable via the futures4europe.eu knowledge-sharing portal, reinforcing the project’s commitment to an open foresight community.

The Future of Sustainable Fashion event took place on Monday, April 14, 2025, at the MOMus - Museum of Modern Art in Thessaloniki, Greece. The workshop was implemented surrounded by the relative with the subject exhibition Collective Threads: Anna Andreeva at the Red Rose Silk Factory. This initiative was implemented by Helenos Consulting, a partner of the Eye of Europe Project, and aimed at engaging domain professionals, including foresight and fashion experts.

Europe’s Research and Innovation (R&I) system is entering a period of profound change. Demographic decline, rapid technological shifts, and constrained funding are beginning to alter student intake, the graduate pipeline, and research career prospects. By 2050, Europe’s population structure will look markedly different:

• The share of people aged 85+ will more than double, reaching around 10% of the population.
• The workforce is expected to shrink by 12%—equivalent to roughly 25 million people.
• The EU will have over 3 million fewer young people under 20, reducing the talent pool entering education and research.

These shifts raise fundamental questions for the future of Europe’s R&I landscape. To address them, DG Research & Innovation commmissioned a study “The Demographic Turn: Actions Needed for Research, Innovation and Policy in Europe”, which explores possible futures for Europe's R&I system and highlights how demographic pressure could become a driver of renewal and transformation. 

The study delivers:

• Background data showing a shrinking youth population, a declining workforce, and growing fiscal pressures on R&I funding.
• A six-step foresight approach combining horizon scanning, scenario-building, and windtunneling to anticipate future challenges.
• Four Scenarios illustrating different pathways for Europe’s R&I system.
• Strategic actions to protect fundamental research, enable lifelong learning, strengthen regional innovation, and build societal trust in technology

A comprehensive version of the study is available for download at the bottom the page. It presents a detailed overview of the methodological framework (including desk research, stakeholder mapping, workshop design, and data collection and analysis) along with the corresponding data and survey findings. 

The World Futures Studies Federation offers its standards to institutions interested in achieving accreditation in futures studies. Institutions offering programmes which meet the Federation’s standards will be credentialed as an Accredited Foresight Programme. Accreditation will extend for a period of five (5) years. Review of accreditation will be available every five (5) years to ensure programmes continue to maintain high quality standards of the Federation.


We provide accreditation only to education providers that have been recognized by the relevant department or ministry of education in their country as a tertiary education provider.

How To Apply: https://wfsf.org/accreditation-services/ 

Supported by the European Union (EU), EIT Food is the world’s largest food innovation community – its mission is three-fold aiming at healthier lives through food, a net zero food system and reducing risk for a fair and resilient food system. Its Consumer Observatory is Europe’s central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. The observatory has identified general and consumer-specific trends and other driving forces, which were used as a starting point for this scenario work. During the summer and autumn 2024, Insight Foresight Institute organised online workshops to develop four alternative future scenarios and their implications to stakeholders.

Scenarios are not predictions of the likely future, but they depict possible futures. Exploring alternative scenarios helps to expand one’s own span of observation further towards the future, and to possible threats and opportunities that otherwise might not be in the immediate attention span, or just being excluded for being unlikely. While the scenarios often consist of a possible future state and the pathway from the present to that future, in this case, our narratives of the future (written in the present tense, as if we were already in the future) describe each a different day in 2035.

The work focuses on the futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in 2035 in Europe, specifically with regards to emerging technological opportunities for new products and retail experiences as well as to (un)sustainable and (un)healthy consumer choices. These dimensions provided a structure that ensured that each of the four scenarios was truly different:
• Scenario A: GREEN AND ME - A Day in European High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035
• Scenario B: FRUGAL AND LOCAL - A Day in European Localized Food Sector Driven by Community Values in 2035
• Scenario C: COST AND CONTROL - A Day in European Decayed Food Ecosystem Focused on Industrial Efficiency in 2035
• Scenario D: HIGHS AND LOWS - A Day in European Unequal High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035.
We conclude the paper by reflecting on the scenarios and their implications to decision-makers today.

What was the challenge?

The Research Council of Norway (RCN) identified five strategic areas in pursuit of ground-breaking research, radical innovation and sustainable development. RCN required a robust evidence base to help develop long-term, priority missions to help solve one or more societal challenges, as well as underpinning structural measures of the research environment in Norway. The five strategic areas include: Oceans; Green transition; Health and welfare; Cohesion and globalisation; and Technology and digitalisation.

How did we approach it?

We adopted a mixed method, participatory approach involving a variety of research tools such as trend analyses, literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, crowdsourcing ideas from experts, a survey of the public, future scenario analyses and workshops.

The core foresight work allowed us to examine what might happen in the next ten years in the different strategic areas and wider R&I system in Norway. Scenarios of future states were used as the basis for workshop discussions to stress test potential missions and structural measures that the RCN could consider developing and implementing in the future.

What was the outcome or impact of the work?

Extensive findings from this research were published in a series of nine reports. The research was cited as evidence in the RCN’s input to the 2022 revision of the Long-Term Plan for Research and Higher Education 2019–2028, which specifies the Norwegian government’s ambitions, key objectives and priority areas for research and higher education.

The study also helped inform the RCN’s internal decision making, strategies and organisational activities. In addition, a summary of the findings and proposals was presented to the relevant Norwegian minister.

Project webpage: https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/2021/future-research-innovation-norway.html 

Research outputs:

• Summary report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-1.pdf 
• Addressing future societal challenges in Norway: Detailed methodology report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-2.pdf
• A summary of potential cross-cutting missions to address future societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-3.pdf
  
  Structural measures to develop a resilient research and innovation environment in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-4.pdf
  
  Health and welfare: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-5.pdf
  
  Oceans: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-6.pdf
  
  Technology and digitalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-7.pdf
  
  Cohesion and globalisation: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-8.pdf
  
  Green transition: An analysis of trends, future directions and potential missions to address societal challenges in Norway: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA966-1/RAND_RRA966-9.pdf

Founded in 1989 as an academic spin-off of Sussex University (UK), Technopolis Group is an international research and consulting organisation working for the public sector. Starting as a frontrunner in the science, technology and innovation policy sector, we have grown and diversified our areas of expertise and solutions to climate change and environment, digital transformation, education and skills, life sciences and health, and international cooperation. We have expanded our activities beyond Europe, to Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific. 

Technopolis Group combines state-of-the-art social science methods with international expertise in core domain areas. We conduct strategic and foresight studies on a wide range of topics related to research and innovation, entrepreneurship, SMEs and industry, digital transformation, regional development and cohesion, higher education and skills, green economy, and health and life sciences.

We empower you to work with the futures. Our ideas show organizations how to deal with terms like weak signals, trends or white spots, and at the same time energizing to position themselves. We like discussing new developments and trends, with their respective effects on the organization, in order to design frameworks for actions and strenghten the matching future-attitude and accompanying measures.Schaltzeit has successfully provided consulting and operational services within the areas of foresight, ideation, experiences, software and design, to organizations in sectors such as telecommunication, automotive, biotechnology, software development, medicine, cosmetics and others.
We ignite and accompany you on your way to success.
Schaltzeit fills gaps, optimizes processes and forms the link between actors and processes in order to make results transparent and usable and sustainably establishes future-oriented thinking and acting.

Futures thinking is in our DNA. SAMI was created as the St Andrews Management Institute in 1989, as a joint venture between Shell, the pioneers in scenario planning, and St Andrews University. That powerful mix of academic rigour and practical delivery continues in work and with our people today: Experienced practitioners, world-renowned futures authors, and consultants with first-hand experience of the public sector and the challenges facing it.

SAMI was commissioned by the Government Office for Science to overhaul its Futures Toolkit. We have reviewed and re-written many of the core tools, adding new ones and advising on more advanced techniques.

SAMI Consulting Ltd are futures domain specialists. We have 30 years’ experience of working internationally, with the European Commission and with HM Government on futures projects. We understand the specific needs of Government in formulating and reaching decisions at both the policy and delivery levels. We have worked with the Cabinet Office, the Government Office for Science and HMG central departments; agencies; Local Government, Local Enterprise Partnerships, NDPBs, police forces and security agencies, universities and charities.

We work with you using a wide range of foresight tools including scenario planning. We identify
major drivers of change impacting your organisation, develop different futures and test alternative
strategies. This participative approach builds capability in your team, enabling them to become
more innovative and more able to react rapidly to unexpected change.

We offer the full range of Futures capability from gathering intelligence, to making sense of it, to
testing and developing your strategy, making decisions and taking action. We use the full range of
Futures and Foresight tools, conduct our own research and maintain our own knowledge acquisition
mechanisms. This means we can deliver a faster, tailored and more sophisticated response to your
needs and avoid ‘reinventing the wheel.’

SAMI’s experienced facilitators are adept at managing the unique challenges of futures workshops.
We enable participants to step outside their present-bias into a futures-mode of thinking

Healthy and Sustainable Diets, Circularity, Diversity: Pathways in Transition for Resilient European Agriculture and Food Systems in Times of Global Crisis (6th SCAR Foresight)
Explorative scenarios built upon the transition pathways with a deep dive on natural resources - land and water

The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research has a long tradition in the European Commission and represents the link of DG RTDI to the Member States in Agricultural Research. SCAR Foresight and the respective reports can be traced back to discussions and a working group for the European Commission in 2005/2006. On this basis, the first SCAR Foresight was conducted to highlight developments in the agricultural sector, new opportunities and better links to the research system. The areas of SCAR are broad: agriculture and fisheries, food systems, bioeconomy, and forestry.

Until now, five Foresight activities were under way , and the EC and Member States have used Foresight recommendations in planning their research coordination activities established under Horizon Europe (HE).

The 6th SCAR Foresight study is building on the 5th SCAR Foresight study and its transition pathways with adding explorative scenarios to the pathways (opening up the topics of the pathways once more), and linking them to a deep dive on natural resources, land and water. The three main transition pathways identified in the 5th SCAR Foresight were still judged as valid but need to be pursued in a new context. This context is marked by poly- and permacrises and new game changers like high-tech innovations as well as recent geopolitical developments and European political guidelines.

The 6th SCAR Foresight has the general objective of supporting a safe and just transition towards a more sustainable, competitive, and resilient agriculture and food sector including fisheries, forestry and bioeconomy. The EU political guidelines and the new political agenda under the new European Commission are taken into account. Results of the 6th SCAR Foresight will be provided as inputs to the FP10 Work Programme, to the strategic approach to EU agricultural research and innovation and the Food 2030 R&I initiative as well as to any other relevant and upcoming strategies and initiatives, at the national, European as well as at global level.

This report offers an in-depth foresight assessment that critically evaluates and questions the foundational assumptions of European environmental policies related to the Green Deal. To enhance the resilience of these frameworks, the two-year study utilises a comprehensive set of methods, including impact wheel analysis, Ishikawa diagrams, cross-impact analysis, semi-structured interviews, and causal layered analysis. This approach reveals the cascading effects, entrenched cognitive biases, and intricate interdependencies present in policy design. These techniques facilitate a detailed examination of specific policy areas while providing a systemic perspective on how the connections among circular economy, bioeconomy, clean air and health, and the decarbonisation of transport impact overall sustainability results. By harnessing these diverse foresight techniques, the assessment reveals that conventional policy narratives are often oversimplified, obscuring risks and trade-offs that, if unchallenged, may impede a successful transition to a sustainable Europe. The impact wheel and Ishikawa diagrams facilitate the structured identification of primary and secondary effects, while the cross-impact analysis maps the interactive dynamics between assumptions. Semi-structured interviews provide nuanced stakeholder perspectives that uncover underlying worldviews and metaphors shaping policy discourse when synthesised via causal layered analysis. The study offers actionable recommendations for enhancing policy resilience, promoting integrated governance, and fostering adaptive strategies capable of addressing the multipronged challenges posed by environmental uncertainty.

Source: Eionet - ETCs- ETC Sustainability transitions (ETC ST) - Products  

To help navigate current and future uncertainty and disruptive change, while effectively delivering on its mandate, UNEP has been implementing an institutionalized approach to strategic foresight and horizon scanning with the view to developing an anticipatory and future-oriented culture. This mirrors the growing interest and demand for foresight that is also reinforced by the United Nations reform agenda and the Secretary-General’s report on ‘Our Common Agenda’, which calls for all UN agencies, as well as all UN member states, to engage foresight practices more deeply and apply the derived insights to address global systemic risks. This process has culminated in the development of the present report “Navigating New Horizons – A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing”, produced by UNEP in collaboration with the International Science Council. The report calls for the world to pay heed and respond to a range of emerging challenges that could disrupt planetary health and wellbeing. It presents insights on eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity and nature loss and pollution and waste. Eighteen signals of change – identified by hundreds of global experts and distilled through regional and stakeholder consultations that included youth – offer a glimpse into potential disruptions, both positive and negative, that the world needs to keep a watching brief on. 

The report outlines how to create an enabling environment for better decision-making by creating a new social contract, embracing agile and adaptive governance, and increasing integrated accessible data and knowledge. The report offers a stark reminder of the interconnectedness and fragility of our systems in the 21st Century and warns that prioritizing short-term gains over anticipatory action and preparedness jeopardizes long-term prosperity and planetary health. However, it also points to the tremendous potential and human ingenuity that can be leveraged in the spirit of discovery and cooperation to deliver solutions across the triple crisis. The outcomes of the report will be integrated into UNEP’s strategic planning, potentially influencing the next UNEP Medium-Term Strategy, presenting an opportunity to consider expanding programmes in areas like artificial intelligence, new technology, and robotics in agriculture, prompting discussions on the level of engagement in these issues. This will ultimately serve UNEP in adopting a proactive posture and modernize tools for efficiency and cost savings.

Source: UN Environment - Document Repository - Knowledge Repository - UNEP Publications - Technical Reports  

By exploring 25 evidence-based potential disruptions across environmental, technological, economic, social, and geopolitical domains, the Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policy helps anticipate challenges and opportunities that could reshape the policy landscape between 2030 and 2050. These disruptions are not predictions, but hypothetical future developments identified through extensive research, expert consultations, and workshops. The Strategic Foresight Toolkit features a five-step foresight process, guiding users to challenge assumptions, create scenarios, stress-test strategies, and develop actionable plans. It includes facilitation guides and case studies to support effective implementation. Each disruption is accompanied by insights on emerging trends, potential future impacts, and both immediate and long-term policy options to ensure resilience and preparedness. Designed for policymakers, public administrators, and foresight practitioners, this publication is designed to promote holistic, strategic and evidence-informed decision-making. It aims to support countries and organisations in using strategic foresight to design and prepare robust and adaptable public policies for a range of possible futures. With its practical methodology and forward-looking approach, the Strategic Foresight Toolkit is a vital resource for building sustainable, resilient, and effective public policies.

Source: OECD - Publications 

About

The LifeFactFuture (LFF) project combines world class-excellence of Finnish life science companies, technology companies and academic researchers. It seeks to enhance advanced pharmaceutical and life science manufacturing in Finland.

The LFF consortium includes research teams at the University of Turku and the University of Helsinki, as well as some of Finland’s leading life science manufacturers, data and technology companies. The goal of the project collaboration is to speed up the introduction of digital solutions and more efficient utilization of data and to make Finland the most attractive place in the world for investments in data-driven life science manufacturing.

Current global vendors for pharmaceutical manufacturing are not able to provide the critical future data capabilities already identified by the sector in Finland. The data-driven capabilities offered by life science manufacturing vendors are assessed as less mature than similar solutions for other manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry.

If Finland becomes the lighthouse for exploiting new data-driven capabilities in advanced life sciences manufacturing, new billion-euro export opportunities are on the horizon. The export potential is considerable within the life science sector itself as well as within technology industry companies supplying the life science sector with data-driven capabilities.

LFF is designed to fulfill the following objectives:

World-class, interdisciplinary research published in high-level journals.
Map the transformative potential of data-driven capabilities in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Facilitate the design and adoption of regulatory practices in favor of agile/adaptive manufacturing.
Support the development of technology Proofs of Concept advancing data-driven life science manufacturing.
Progress made in developing sustainable business competencies in digital production environment.


The consortium is led by the Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku and
funded by Business Finland during 2024–2026.

FutureCraft project aims to foster entrepreneurial mindsets and enhance the capacity of ecosystem enablers while promoting futures literacy and global collaboration.

The project aspires to cultivate innovative thinking, provide effective guidance to entrepreneurs, and increase awareness of future trends and sustainability challenges. Ultimately, the goal is to drive economic growth by developing vibrant and sustainable entrepreneurial ecosystems, fostering prosperity and innovation.

The project is funded by EU program Erasmus+ during 12/2024–11/2026.

https://erasmus-plus.ec.europa.eu/projects/search/details/2024-1-TR01-KA220-ADU-000251939

Delivering solutions for a more sustainable future

ISINNOVA provides research services and strategic consultancy to public and private actors pursuing sustainable visions, solutions, and policies.

Five Pillars of Our Approach

1. Anticipate – Apply systems thinking and foresight methodologies to identify emerging challenges, reveal interdependencies, and inform proactive, future-resilient strategies.

2. Integrate – Connect disciplines, sectors, and knowledge systems to foster richer analysis and tackle complex challenges holistically.

3. Align – Ensure research, innovation, and governance processes reflect the values, priorities, and needs of society through ethical, participatory, and responsible approaches.

4. Co-create – Engage diverse stakeholders — researchers, policymakers, citizens, and industry — in collaborative processes to design solutions that are inclusive, relevant, and impactful.

5. Transform – Drive systemic change by translating shared knowledge and co-created solutions into sustainable, scalable actions, supported by continuous assessment to ensure applicability, effectiveness, and long-term value.

Track Record

• 50+ years in the game (and counting).
• Involved in over 130 research projects (ISINNOVA designs, develops, and manages sector-specific & cross-sector EU and global projects)
• 15 staff members with multidisciplinary backgrounds (engineering, statistics, economics, politics, law, social sciences, computer science and media studies)
  

We help people and organisations imagine, work with, and shape their future. 

CIFS is one of the worlds oldest think tanks exclusively focusing on foresight. CIFS teach very popular courses in foresight, gives key notes and launch various initiatives and do research projects. CIFS is a self-owned think tank, completely independent of special interests. 

FutuRes is an EU-funded collaborative research project. It connects leading European demographers and economists with experts from policy and stakeholder engagement. The FutuRes Policy Lab developped eight qualitative scenarios, which describe possible futures of Europe, centered around the continent's population development. These scenarios are based on sound research data which were connected narratively by policymakers and other experts.

European societies are ageing. This puts strain on labour markets, social systems, families, and intergenerational solidarity. Additionally, crises and shocks occur as a result of the changing global climate, violent conflict and pandemics.

The challenge of the day is to create social policies that are resilient. Resilient in the sense of enduring, flexible, adjustable, but also sustainable, humane and fair. In this, the role of demographic researchers is to analyse population data and to provide data analysis and modelling that can support policy-making for a better future.

FutuRes is directed by Prof. Arnstein Aassve of Bocconi University in Milan, one of Europe’s leading experts on crisis resilience. The project brings together a transdisciplinary group of experts to identify policies for the resilience of Europe’s ageing population. It is funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation programme.
An exceptional feature of FutuRes is that dialogue between the research team, policymakers and other stakeholders has been underway since the beginning. “Behind us are the days when researchers simply present their findings at the very end of a project”, says Prof. Aassve. Alongside its research, FutuRes will implement a Policy Lab, where scientists will match their research to practical challenges to resilience and aging, and propose knowledge-based policies. Through a series of larger and smaller events across all three years of the project, this transdisciplinary engagement, will shape the FutuRes research and ensure actionable results.

VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH is a leading service provider for issues related to innovation and technology. We support and advise during the analysis of complex projects or market situations, during the promotion of research programmes from the German federal government, the German state governments and the EU and organise branch offices or contact offices for research and business. As the project sponsor, we offer the suitable solution for every step of the innovation process.

We work both domestically and abroad for our customers from politics, research, industry and finance. 1,000 employees cooperate in multi-national and interdisciplinary teams. With a total of 10 divisions and nine cross-sectional divisions, we cover a broad-based content spectrum and have at our disposal highly-qualified experts from the natural sciences, engineering, social sciences and business management.

We are located in seven cities: Berlin, Munich, Dresden, Bonn, Hannover, Erfurt and Stuttgart. We are thus in close proximity to the customer.

Europe’s research and innovation (R&I) system is facing new challenges as demographic trends reshape societies, economies, and labour markets. With ageing populations, shifting migration patterns, and evolving skill demands, it is crucial to anticipate how these transformations will impact education, research careers, innovation ecosystems, and funding landscapes.

DG Research & Innovation commissioned a study under the Foresight on Demand (FOD) Framework Contract to explore the implications of demographic change on the EU R&I system. By examining weak signals and trends and exploring future scenarios—including the role of emerging technologies such as AI—the study aims to identify strategic policy options to support a competitive, sustainable, and fair Europe. 

The study provides insights to help policymakers and stakeholders design resilient R&I policies that respond effectively to demographic shifts.

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

The increase of geopolitical tensions gives rise to several uncertainties for scientific communities and their respective research. On the one hand, the sciences have a role to play in keeping up peaceful cooperation between national or regional rivals (science diplomacy). On the other hand, questions of dual use and research security become ever more relevant across fields as both hot and cold conflicts emerge.

 
The Futures of Science and Conflict workshop (March 27th, 2025, 10:00-13:00 CET) will gather experts from multiple fields to share and discuss the factors, trends, and topics that will shape the future role of scientists, their research, and their working relationships in times of increased geopolitical tensions and conflict. During the workshop, participants will co-create scenarios outlining the challenges and opportunities presented by uncertain futures. This workshop is organised through the Eye of Europe project – a Horizon Europe funded CSA initiative. 

The workshop will undertake the following activities
• Influencing Factor Assessment Survey (pre-workshop, ~15 min.)
• Discussion of Factor Assessment
• Co-production of Scenarios
• Discussion of challenges, opportunities, and implications for research and innovation ecosystems

The project concerns the operation of the One Stop Liaison Office Mechanism of the Regional Authority, the development of digital tools aiming to support the regional ecosystem, while at the same time monitoring and evaluating the Smart Specialization Strategy.

One Stop Liaison Office Operation
Horizon Scanning (Greek)
Innovation 2030 (Greek)
RIS3 Strategy Monitoring
RIS3 Strategy Evaluation
Updating the RIS3 Strategy 2021-2027

The project is co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund

Commissioned by the German Aerospace Centre and the Centre national d'études spatiales (CNES)

The DLR Project Management Agency provided methodological support to the DLR Space Agency and the French Space Agency CNES in the development of four future scenarios on how a possible human settlement on the Moon could look like in 2050. The focus was on the impact of various resources central to lunar travel, in particular the availability of water.

The Twinning Light project (2023-2024) redefined the future role of the Albanian Agency for Scientific Research and Innovation (NASRI) in the research and innovation ecosystem. The foresight component addressed the following questions What will a future research and innovation ecosystem in Albania look like and what role will NASRI play in it? How can NASRI position itself in this dynamic environment? What concrete steps are needed to achieve NASRI's goals? Together, project experts, NASRI staff and stakeholders developed a roadmap outlining concrete actions and milestones for the strategic reorientation of the agency. The developed roadmap includes recommendations for positioning NASRI in a dynamic environment as well as steps for implementing these goals - with the involvement of relevant partners in the ecosystem. 

GIZ Profile: sustainable development for a liveable future

As a service provider in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education work, we are dedicated to shaping a future worth living around the world. We have over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas, including economic development and employment promotion, energy and the environment, and peace and security. The diverse expertise of our federal enterprise is in demand around the globe – from the German Government, European Union institutions, the United Nations, the private sector, and governments of other countries. We work with businesses, civil society actors and research institutions, fostering successful interaction between development policy and other policy fields and areas of activity. Our main commissioning party is the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

How GIZ uses Foresight Methods: As a federal enterprise working in the fields of international cooperation for sustainable development and international education, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH is greatly affected by the business environment in which it operates and by trends in Germany, Europe and the world. Dealing with the resulting uncertainty, complexity and fast-paced change is often very challenging. This makes it important for GIZ to understand the underlying drivers of change and possible future developments so that it can prepare for the future and for the crises it will have to address, ultimately making the company and its staff more resilient.  

The foresight study focused on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU. It aimed at:

• developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EUby 2040.
• identifying the preferred scenario developments.
• providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, tohelp school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

The development of the scenarios was based on the factors of change1, identified through desk research, horizon scanning, and extensive stakeholder involvement. More than 80 European Commission officials, school education experts, representatives of teacher, student and headmaster umbrella organisations, and other stakeholders, from across the EU, contributed to the study, by participating in four workshops, a Delphi survey, and interviews.

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.