Social Protection Systems & Essential Services is the third instalment in DLR Projektträger's Strategic Foresight series for the future European Partnership on Social Transformations and Resilience (STR). It asks how Europe's welfare systems can stay adequate, fair, and resilient as demographic change, labour market fragmentation, climate pressures, and digitalisation reshape who needs support and how they receive it.

The foresight process started with 25 candidate trends drawn from desk research, anchored in the European Commission's The Future of Social Protection and of the Welfare State in the EU and a scoping study on welfare systems in societal and ecological transitions. Five expert interviews sharpened the trend landscape, and a survey of 138 experts across 24 countries narrowed the field to ten priority trends. A workshop with 33 participants from 15 countries then mapped the cascading effects of each trend using the Futures Wheel method.

The ten trends cover strain on pension and care systems from an ageing population, widening divides between secure and precarious work, rising mental health needs, unequal exposure to climate shocks and transition costs, and eroding trust in welfare institutions, alongside the risks and opportunities of digitalisation in service delivery.

The report's best-case scenario for 2040 rests on four pillars: income security and inclusive labour market participation that closes coverage gaps for people in non-standard work; shock-responsive and climate-fair social protection that shields low-income households from unequal transition costs; human-centred digitalisation that improves access without deepening inequality or eroding trust; and trustworthy, coordinated welfare governance that reduces administrative barriers and strengthens fairness.