Supported by the European Union (EU), EIT Food is the world’s largest food innovation community – its mission is three-fold aiming at healthier lives through food, a net zero food system and reducing risk for a fair and resilient food system. Its Consumer Observatory is Europe’s central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. The observatory has identified general and consumer-specific trends and other driving forces, which were used as a starting point for this scenario work. During the summer and autumn 2024, Insight Foresight Institute organised online workshops to develop four alternative future scenarios and their implications to stakeholders.
Scenarios are not predictions of the likely future, but they depict possible futures. Exploring alternative scenarios helps to expand one’s own span of observation further towards the future, and to possible threats and opportunities that otherwise might not be in the immediate attention span, or just being excluded for being unlikely. While the scenarios often consist of a possible future state and the pathway from the present to that future, in this case, our narratives of the future (written in the present tense, as if we were already in the future) describe each a different day in 2035.
The work focuses on the futures of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in 2035 in Europe, specifically with regards to emerging technological opportunities for new products and retail experiences as well as to (un)sustainable and (un)healthy consumer choices. These dimensions provided a structure that ensured that each of the four scenarios was truly different:
• Scenario A: GREEN AND ME - A Day in European High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035
• Scenario B: FRUGAL AND LOCAL - A Day in European Localized Food Sector Driven by Community Values in 2035
• Scenario C: COST AND CONTROL - A Day in European Decayed Food Ecosystem Focused on Industrial Efficiency in 2035
• Scenario D: HIGHS AND LOWS - A Day in European Unequal High-Tech Food Ecosystem in 2035.
We conclude the paper by reflecting on the scenarios and their implications to decision-makers today.
Implications
Further reflection on the implications of four scenarios to food consumption and the ecosystem led us to formulate the following issues potentially relevant for today´s decision-makers. The identified implications are not priorities and they are not ranked in any particular order. They are meant to be potential openings for further reflection on future developments in the sector.
1. Guiding Consumers Towards One-Health Choices
The food sector plays a critical role in guiding consumers to make well-informed one-health choices that benefit human health, animal welfare, and environmental sustainability. To achieve this, the sector must enhance value chain information sharing, providing transparency about how food is produced, processed, and distributed. Implementing Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) for new production methods—such as urban farming, indoor aquaculture, and cellular meat—is essential to evaluate their true environmental impacts and determine if they can sustainably scale to feed the global population.
Public research and action are vital to prevent greenwashing and corporate monopolisation, ensuring that innovations contribute to sustainability rather than merely serving private interests. The sector must also address the rising costs associated with dietary diseases and navigate the complex regulation of addictive substances in foods, whose misuse can lead to health issues.
Three out of four scenarios envision unequal societies, pinpointing that techno-economic innovations are insufficient to attain one health. Social innovations and ensuring food choices, safety and security for all citizens are integral parts of the needed transition. By proactively tackling these challenges, the food sector can promote a more transparent, equitable, and sustainable food system that empowers consumers to make choices aligned with one-health principles.
2. Embracing Innovative (New and Ancient) Mood-related Food Ingredients
As consumer preferences shift towards wellness and unique experiences, there is a rising demand for novel food ingredients, including technological innovations, ancient ingredients and mood-enhancing properties. As the intersection of nutrition and mental well-being gains prominence, mood-related foods are poised to become a significant segment of the food industry. These foods aim to enhance emotional health, reduce stress, and improve cognitive function through natural ingredients. The future could see a blend of innovative technologies and also a resurgence of ancient ingredients known for their psychotropic or adaptogenic properties.
Mood-related foods have the potential to revolutionize the way we approach mental well-being through diet. By addressing regulatory challenges and fostering collaboration among policymakers, businesses, and researchers, we can pave the way for these innovative products to enter the market responsibly. This not only satisfies consumer demand but also promotes a more holistic approach to health that integrates both physical and emotional wellness. By proactively addressing regulatory and market challenges through collaboration among policymakers, businesses, and researchers, we can successfully introduce innovative and ancient ingredients into the food supply, meeting future consumer demands and advancing public health.
3. Prioritising Animal Welfare
Animal welfare is an increasingly important aspect of sustainability that consumers expect the food sector to take seriously. Integrating the one-health approach—which recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health—requires balancing animal welfare with conservation efforts. For example, while sustainable aquaculture practices like closed-cycle systems aim to reduce environmental impact, they may not sufficiently address the well-being of the farmed animals. This oversight can lead to ethical concerns among consumers and potentially harm a company's reputation. Therefore, the food sector must ensure that sustainability initiatives encompass robust animal welfare standards. By doing so, businesses can meet consumer expectations, uphold ethical practices, and contribute to a holistic approach to sustainability that benefits all facets of the ecosystem.
For instance, while sustainable aquaculture practices, such as closed-cycle systems, aim to minimize environmental impact and support conservation efforts, they may inadvertently overlook the well-being of farmed aquatic animals. Issues like high stocking densities, poor water quality, and inadequate health management can lead to stress, disease, and suffering among fish and other aquaculture species. This neglect not only raises ethical questions but can also affect product quality and consumer trust.
4. Mainstreaming Precision Nutrition
The mainstreaming of precision nutrition—customizing dietary recommendations based on individual genetic, microbiome, and metabolic profiles—presents significant implications for the food sector. Advancements in omics and microbiome-related technologies require further research to effectively link them to nutrition, necessitating an integral development of solutions from new ingredient production to personalized data management within regulatory frameworks. Scaling up personalized nutrition demands robust partnerships with technology providers, creating win-win scenarios that foster innovation and efficiency. However, there is a risk of widening inequalities and income disparities, as vulnerable populations (e.g., low-income individuals or those without land access) may struggle to integrate into these advanced systems, impacting food security. Additionally, localized production methods often come with higher costs under current technologies, potentially exacerbating inequality unless technological evolution makes these options more affordable and accessible for all.
5. Scaling Up Localized Food Systems
Local food systems play a pivotal role in enhancing the diversity and resilience of our food supply while offering substantial benefits to consumers and communities. By focusing on locally sourced production and distribution, these systems foster stronger connections between people and their food, promote sustainable practices, and build robust local economies. Scaling up emerging solutions to enhance diversity and resilience in food systems requires a concerted effort across policy, business, and research sectors.
Policymakers could support the development of local producer networks by creating favourable regulations and providing incentives for localized value chains. This could include promoting the use of organic fertilisers to foster circular economies and ensuring food security by encouraging short supply chains that are less vulnerable to global disruptions. Policies could also focus on integrating digital tools for local bartering and distribution systems, enhancing community-based economies without compromising low-tech practices. Additionally, there must be strategies in place to help localized food systems adapt to extreme weather events and resource shortages, especially in the face of weakened global support structures.
Businesses have the opportunity to invest in and collaborate with local producers, enhancing economic viability and sustainability. They can leverage digital platforms to improve coordination and distribution within local markets. However, they must also navigate challenges in urban centres where land availability and costs hinder fully localised food systems. Innovative solutions like vertical farming or rooftop gardens could be explored to maximize space efficiency.
Researchers could focus on developing strategies that bolster the resilience of localised food systems against environmental and resource-based challenges. This includes studying the impact of extreme weather events on local agriculture and exploring sustainable practices that can be adopted by local producers. Research can also aid in optimising digital tools for community coordination without undermining low-tech methodologies. Furthermore, economic studies are needed to assess the feasibility and scalability of localised food systems in various settings, particularly in densely populated urban areas.
6. Embracing Soilless Agriculture
Soilless production methods—such as hydroponics, vertical farming, and urban agriculture using indoor LED lighting—are reshaping the food sector by offering alternatives to traditional soil-based farming. These technologies enable efficient food production in urban environments, reducing reliance on arable land and mitigating issues related to soil degradation and water scarcity. By decreasing dependence on precipitation and allowing for controlled growing conditions, soilless systems can enhance food security and provide consistent yields year-round. However, the transition to soilless production presents challenges, including high initial investment costs, energy consumption for lighting and climate control, and the need for technical expertise. The food sector must consider these factors to successfully integrate soilless methods, balancing sustainability with economic viability to meet the demands of a growing global population.
7. Empowering Farmers and Prosumer Communities
Empowering farmers and prosumer communities has significant implications for the food sector by making farming more attractive and accessible. Instead of focusing solely on high-tech solutions, implementing technologies that reduce the physical hardships of agricultural work can encourage more people to engage in farming. Providing education help individuals to make informed decisions about their involvement in food production. This approach is crucial in regions with low fertility rates, such as the EU, where demographic shifts cannot be easily altered, and reliance on immigration policies is uncertain. By educating consumers and training communities in sustainable practices like regenerative farming, foraging, and marine permaculture, the food sector can motivate people to engage and adopt environmentally friendly practices. This not only enhances food security but also builds resilient communities actively participating in the food system.
8. High-Tech Risks
The growing reliance on high-tech solutions in the food sector—such as AI-driven production systems, biotech foods, and drone deliveries—introduces significant vulnerabilities that could disrupt the entire food ecosystem. System failures in AI-controlled agriculture could halt production, leading to supply shortages and economic losses. Food safety breaches in biotechnology-produced foods might pose health risks, eroding consumer trust in innovative food products. Similarly, breakdowns in drone delivery networks could impede the distribution of food, particularly in areas that depend heavily on such technology. These scenarios underscore the risks of over-dependence on high-tech. The food sector must therefore implement robust risk management strategies, including backups and fail-safes, to mitigate potential disruptions. Balancing technological advancements with traditional practices can create a more resilient food system that is less susceptible to the pitfalls of technology failures.
9. Balancing Global vs. Local Dynamics
The interplay between global and local food systems has significant implications for the food sector, particularly in the context of sustainable competition policy. Balancing these dynamics is crucial to maintaining international peace, especially if global trade diminishes. Without equitable global trade, inequalities between developed and developing countries may intensify, as the latter might not have access to advanced technologies yet continue to supply raw materials. This disparity can exacerbate economic imbalances and hinder collaborative efforts towards food security. Limiting the market power of big corporations becomes essential to prevent monopolistic practices and the risk of cartels setting prices, which can undermine both global and local markets. Implementing policies that promote fair competition and technology sharing can help mitigate these risks, ensuring that the benefits of the food sector are distributed more evenly and sustainably across Europe and the world.
