This case study formed part of the Foresight on Demand project 'S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions', carried out for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Led by Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute) and Philine Warnke (Fraunhofer ISI), it explored how a strong focus on ecosystem flourishing could change current thinking about competition over land use.

The analysis examined the dynamics of global land use from diverse perspectives: deforestation and reforestation, agriculture, land degradation, biofuels and renewable energy, mining and quarrying, land grabbing, land health as an underlying driver of pandemics, rewilding, tourism, urban sprawl versus densification, floor space per person, human-scale city planning and the ownership of public space. On this basis, the experts developed three alternative scenarios. In 'Efficiency and optimisation of land use' (P1), heavy exploitation continues and land across the EU is matched to its most productive use in a highly globalised Europe. In 'Towards effective multiple use of land' (P2), a less globalised Europe meets its needs regionally, with land serving several purposes at once, such as grazing, recreation and timber production. In 'Land use adapting to nature' (P3), after a series of crises and system breakdowns caused by climate catastrophe, humans are forced to engage seriously with ecosystems, drawing on Indigenous legal thinking about land and early initiatives such as recognising the rights of ecosystems.

The case study highlights key trade-offs between efficiency and sustainability. Single-use approaches maximise local efficiency but risk harming ecosystems by ignoring systemic effects; multiple use requires substantial learning to integrate diverse practices across urban and rural settings; and the immersive approach aligns with nature-based solutions and Indigenous knowledge. Together, the scenarios frame a paradigm shift from human-centred exploitation of land towards nature-adaptive relationships, with implications for research and innovation policy in the context of the European Green Deal.

Reference: Könnölä, T., & Warnke, P. (2023). Case study 2: Land use futures. In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, K. Kubeczko et al., S&T&I for 2050: Science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – Accelerating sustainability transitions. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2777/100029 

Insight Foresight Institute (IF-Institute) is an independent research and consultancy firm founded in Madrid (Spain) in 2015. We orchestrate expertise in entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems to spark and drive structural changes, enhance resilience and direct society towards social, economic and environmental sustainability.

Our main sectors

Education|Energy And Environment | Health And Social Care | ICT | Manufacturing | Research And Innovation | Services | Transport And Infrastructure

Our solutions

* Activation & Alignment – scaling up ecosystem activities
* Insight & Foresight – assessing the past performance and exploring future developments
* Strategy & Governance – providing direction and structures
* Training & Mentoring – building capacities and capabilities
* Programming & Implementation – turning visions into action

Our partners

We offer a platform for experts and organisations to come up with creative and viable solutions to complex problems. We work with business, policy, academia and other stakeholders.

* We help established companies to position themselves in the wider ecosystem and work with stakeholders to empower their innovation activities.
* We help startups to define their growth plans and work with other organisations to scale up their transformative business.
* We help policymakers and their stakeholders to improve ecosystem performance and work together for transformative change. Our sectors

The key to biodiversity’s preservation? Fostering collaborations between the scientific community and policymakers by using a future-oriented mindset.

Welcome to "Global Futures of Climate”, the first Course in our series on Global Systems designed for individuals and organisations committed to facing global challenges and finding solutions.

This self-paced, online Climate Education Course is scientifically-based, and incredibly well researched to give you a deep understanding of our emerging world, providing a solid basis for you to build your personal, professional, and family futures. The innovative solutions offered align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Course Content includes 12 Lessons across 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, and Ecosystem. There are two lessons in each, examining the challenges, and addressing the alternatives. 

The Course Content incorporates over 100 learning resources, including:

• 12 Lessons over 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, Ecosystem.
• 12 Lessons over 3 Modules: Climate Change, Energy Systems, Ecosystem.
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• Over 40 expert videos (climate and ocean scientists, EC, UN, OECD, European Parliament, Carbon Brief, WWF, World Bank, Universities)
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