The Foresight Forum, established by the Finnish Ministry of Trade and Industry in mid-2004, served as the pilot that shaped the RPM Screening method. RPM Screening supported three expert groups working on nutrigenomics, health care and social services, and services for the provision of personal experiences such as tourism. Around 50 people were invited per theme, and parallel processes were run with postgraduate students in a course on decision analysis at Helsinki University of Technology.

In total, 166 innovation ideas were generated, commented on, revised and evaluated online, and the results were discussed in workshops. Several of the screened ideas were later taken up in the Delphi survey of a regional foresight project. The pilot showed how the solicitation of innovation ideas, rather than broad weak signals, can produce focused, comparable and action-oriented inputs while preserving diversity.

The Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform was one of the European Technology Platforms that brought together industry, research and public authorities to define a Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) for the sector. In Finland, a modular foresight process was organised to develop national priorities as Finland's contribution to the European agenda.

The process was based on RPM Screening. More than 100 researchers and business people across five parts of the industry proposed and scored 146 research themes in just seven weeks. Robust Portfolio Modelling identified promising themes, and participatory workshops discussed the results of the multi-criteria analyses. After a demonstration, all value-chain coordinators chose to use the method, and in their workshops it helped focus and catalyse discussion.

More information: http://sra.tkk.fi/ 

WoodWisdom-Net was one of the ERA-NETs supported by the European Union, to deepen collaboration between European funding organisations in wood material science, coordinate the use of research funds and promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the European forest cluster. Its 18 partners from eight countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom) decided to launch a co-funded research programme in wood material science.

To shape the research agenda, a participatory bottom-up consultation was designed with the Systems Analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology. More than 400 researchers, industrialists and other stakeholders took part and proposed 317 research ideas, which were assessed online and prioritised with RPM Screening. Facilitated workshops discussed, validated and synthesised the results, and network analyses supported the identification of possible collaboration networks. The process ended with three groups of funders preparing joint calls for research proposals.

For more information: http://woodwisdom.tkk.fi/ 

Foresight activities have often supported priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. Drawing on complementary evolutionary perspectives, this article discusses these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity, which may be vital in contexts characterised by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. Although the solicitation of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may result in more focused, action-oriented and comparable reflections of future developments.

Building on this argument, the article extends Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) into a collaborative foresight method called RPM Screening, with phases for the generation, revision, evaluation and analysis of innovation ideas. It reports experiences from a pilot project in which the method supported the work of the Foresight Forum of the Finnish Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The results of the pilot and other applications suggest that RPM Screening holds promise for fostering diversity in a variety of contexts, for instance in the development of shared research agendas and in the identification and assessment of technological risks.

Könnölä, T., Brummer, V., & Salo, A. (2007). Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(5), 608–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.003 

Although foresight has become increasingly relevant at the international level, little methodological attention has been given to the challenges that arise from the geographical dispersion of participants or from their national and regional idiosyncrasies. This article addresses these challenges in connection with coordination tools for the Open Method of Coordination, most notably ERA-NETs and European Technology Platforms, which the European Commission facilitates to contribute to the establishment of the European Research Area.

The successful management of these tools calls for multi-stakeholder processes, which place demands such as scalability, modularity and dependability on the design and deployment of foresight methodologies. The article reports experiences from a foresight process conducted in Finland to support the development of the Strategic Research Agenda of the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. The process was based on the RPM Screening methodology, which combined the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research themes, the identification of promising themes through Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM), and participatory workshops where the results of the multi-criteria analyses were discussed.

The encouraging results of the process and the broader potential of Internet-based decision support systems are discussed in view of European coordination tools.

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., & Brummer, V. (2011). Foresight for European coordination: Developing national priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology Platform. International Journal of Technology Management, 54(4). https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2011.041583 

This article addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for the Open Method of Coordination, such as ERA-NETs, which the European Commission promotes towards the establishment of the European Research Area. It reports experiences from a consultation process organised within WoodWisdom-Net (ERA-NET) to create an international research agenda, based on the long-term challenges of the European forest sector and on the identification of gaps and new opportunities in wood material science and engineering.

The process involved eighteen funding organisations from eight European countries and over 400 participants, most notably leading researchers and industrialists. It combined the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) to identify promising research issues, and facilitated workshops where the results were discussed, validated and synthesised. Extensive network analyses supported the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.

Drawing on these experiences, the article discusses the broader potential of Internet-based decision support tools and participatory workshops in promoting foresight within ERA-NETs and other European coordination tools.

Brummer, V., Könnölä, T., & Salo, A. (2008). Foresight within ERA-NETs: Experiences from the preparation of an international research program. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(4), 483–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.005