This report presents the outcomes of the Geopolitical Industrial Decarbonisation Scenarios workshop, convened on behalf of the Eye of Europe Horizon Europe project by the Insight Foresight Institute. Bringing together 30 participants from across the European Union—including policymakers at EU, national, and regional levels, industry leaders, energy and climate specialists, and foresight and forecasting experts—the workshop explored how the EU can navigate mounting geopolitical uncertainty while accelerating industrial decarbonization on a 2050 horizon.

The discussion was structured around two core aims. First, participants examined a suite of forward-looking geopolitical scenarios, assessing how divergent power dynamics, energy trade patterns, and technological trajectories could either hinder or catalyse the transition to a net-zero industrial base in the EU countries. Particular attention was paid to supply-chain resilience, strategic autonomy in critical materials, and the interplay between carbon border adjustments and global climate diplomacy. Second, the workshop sought to surface emergent research and innovation (R&I) needs and opportunities that would equip EU actors to thrive across the scenarios. Priorities highlighted include advanced electrification processes for hard-to-abate sectors, low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic-fuel value chains, circular-economy business models, and data-driven tools for real-time decarbonisation monitoring.

Outputs from the session feed directly into the Eye of Europe project’s multi-workshop learning cycle. Immediate products comprise this extended report for attendees; aggregated insights captured in the public Pilot Logbook Part I – What we did and Part II – What we learned; and distilled policy recommendations to be released in the Eye of Europe Policy Brief: Foresight Perspectives on Key R&I Topics. Beyond documentation, the Insight Foresight Institute will leverage the findings to stimulate agenda-setting dialogues with EU bodies and industrial stakeholders, ensuring that identified R&I pathways inform Horizon Europe programming and other EU-level funding instruments. Workshop materials and presentations are retrievable via the futures4europe.eu knowledge-sharing portal, reinforcing the project’s commitment to an open foresight community.

The energy crisis resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine only underlines the urgency for the EU to reduce its dependency on fossil fuel, in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050, which is at the core of the European Green Deal. Decarbonising the industry, responsible for 17% of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, is therefore key.

This first industrial technology roadmap under the new European research area (ERA) provides an evidence base on the state of play of low-carbon technologies in energy-intensive industries in the EU and available support instruments, and points to possible research and innovation action in view of accelerating development and uptake of these technologies. These possible ways forward build on contributions from industry, other research and innovation stakeholders, Member States, and relevant European partnerships.

This roadmap will feed into the transition pathway for the energy-intensive industries ecosystem under the EU industrial strategy and supports the work to accelerate the green and digital transitions under the ERA policy agenda.

This second industrial technology roadmap, under the European Research Area, sets out 92 circular technologies in the textile,
construction and energy-intensive industries, which address all stages of a material and product lifecycle. It indicates the means to develop and adopt these technologies, which can help reduce the impact of these industries on climate and the environment. It finds a leading position of EU companies in circular technologies, but also looks at the substantial research &
innovation investment needs at EU and national levels and necessary framework conditions to put in place. It builds on
contributions from industry, other R&I stakeholders, Member States, and relevant European partnerships.