In 2009 the Joint Research Centre's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) carried out the foresight study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges' for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The aim was to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response, as part of the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The study combined horizon scanning of 129 forward-looking reports in six areas, a wide online consultation, the prioritisation of issues with RPM Screening and a two-day sense-making workshop that brought together 19 experts from around the world and 22 officials from across the Commission's departments. Participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges and agreed on three overarching challenges for EU action: changing the ways in which essential natural resources are used, anticipating and adapting to societal changes, and more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources.

The final report fed into the strategy work of BEPA and the JRC and was referenced in the Commission's groundwork for the Innovation Union strategy.

This article discusses key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out by JRC-IPTS for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes that assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters, and the interpretation of the resulting clusters as a step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.

Issues drawn from published forward-looking reports were prioritised with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM), a multi-criteria method that combines several criteria into a shortlist that holds under every reasonable weighting and can also bring forward issues that divide opinion as well as wild cards. In a workshop, participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges, grouped them under global governance, natural capital, society and economy, and weighed them against three questions: is EU action urgent, can the EU realistically act, and would EU action have a major positive global impact? By the end of the workshop they had agreed on three overarching challenges.

Methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis support horizon scanning in prioritising, clustering and combining issues. They also provide traceability, which enhances the transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources when they were discussed inside the Commission.

Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021 

This report presents the main conclusions of the study 'Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out in 2009 by the Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. Its aim is to provide a comprehensive picture of the main trends and possible disruptive global challenges towards 2025 and beyond, and to examine how the EU could position itself to take an active role in shaping a response. The study fed into the preparations for the Europe 2020 strategy.

The methodology combined an extensive review of forward-looking studies, a wide online consultation on the identified issues and multi-criteria analysis with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) to prioritise them. In total, 129 forward-looking reports were reviewed across six areas: demography, migration and health; economy, trade and financial flows; environment, energy, climate change and agriculture; research, innovation and education; governance and social cohesion; and defence and security. The key issues were then presented and discussed in a workshop with selected experts and policymakers.

Based on the criteria of urgency, tractability and impact, the workshop identified three challenges with a global scope that require action at EU level: the need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used, the need to anticipate and adapt to societal changes, and the need for more effective and transparent governance for the EU and the world. The report sets out policy messages and opportunities for each challenge and highlights the need for building a foresight culture within EU policy-making.

Boden, M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., & Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges (EUR 24364 EN). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2791/4223