This article discusses key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges', carried out by JRC-IPTS for the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) of the European Commission. The exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes that assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters, and the interpretation of the resulting clusters as a step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
Issues drawn from published forward-looking reports were prioritised with Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM), a multi-criteria method that combines several criteria into a shortlist that holds under every reasonable weighting and can also bring forward issues that divide opinion as well as wild cards. In a workshop, participants produced 22 cross-cutting challenges, grouped them under global governance, natural capital, society and economy, and weighed them against three questions: is EU action urgent, can the EU realistically act, and would EU action have a major positive global impact? By the end of the workshop they had agreed on three overarching challenges.
Methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis support horizon scanning in prioritising, clustering and combining issues. They also provide traceability, which enhances the transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Because every issue and challenge was coded, the recommendations could be traced back to their sources when they were discussed inside the Commission.
Könnölä, T., Salo, A., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., & Vilkkumaa, E. (2012). Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs021