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Wiring up Multiple Layers of Innovation EcosystemsJanuary 2017
Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight
Foresight has long been used to 'wire up' innovation systems, and exercises have been carried out at corporate, regional, national and international levels. Innovation ecosystems, however, extend across organisational, sectoral, regional, national and international layers, and both the development and the diffusion of innovations depend on framework conditions within and across these layers. The interconnectedness of the layers has so far received little attention in foresight literature and practice.
The article develops the concept of multi-layered foresight and proposes a framework for its design and management. The framework links the issues addressed (societal challenges and coordination), the inputs and incentives of stakeholders, and three facets of outcomes: knowledge, relations and capabilities. It is applied to the FP7 Personal Health Systems (PHS) Foresight project (2012–2014), which explored a field characterised by multiple disciplines, communities of practice, technologies and geographical contexts, and by fragmented development communities, market barriers and duplication of efforts. The project combined a literature review, interviews, social network analysis of European R&D projects, bibliometric and patent analyses and 39 case studies. A Web 2.0 platform with up to 900 registered members was used to submit, comment on and assess 42 visions of personal health systems in 2030. Two scenario workshops with 55 participants followed, the second of which developed a success scenario, and a strategic plan was prepared in dialogue with stakeholders.
The findings indicate that systemic interconnections within and across innovation systems should be reflected in the design and implementation of a foresight exercise as well as in its recommendations. The impact of foresight is likely to increase when activities in multiple layers are examined and engaged, and when strategies are designed in a concerted way. Online participation broadened the reach of the exercise, but it was mainly the interviews and workshops that built capabilities which stakeholders could apply in their own organisations.
Pombo-Juárez, L., Könnölä, T., Miles, I., Saritas, O., Schartinger, D., Amanatidou, E., & Giesecke, S. (2017). Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 115, 278–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.018
Posted on: 31/10/2026


