Climate-Driven Scenarios for Future Occupational Safety and Health in Europe 2050

This policy brief, the second of three from EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle on climate change and occupational safety and health (OSH), presents four scenarios for Europe in 2050. Developed and refined with expert participants in workshops, the scenarios are not predictions but plausible narratives that make possible futures tangible enough for policymakers and workplace stakeholders to reflect on their implications. Each combines a different level of two key dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance.
In Just transition Europe (high climate and high OSH governance), a rapid green transition is matched by proactive, joined-up OSH management, though old risks such as asbestos in retrofitting and outdoor work in extreme heat remain, especially for small firms. In OSH havens Europe (low climate, high OSH governance), Europe adapts through automation and AI, and a skilled minority enjoys excellent protection while most people live on a universal basic income, informal work grows and OSH standards are neglected in global supply chains. In Climate race Europe (high climate, low OSH governance), belated and rushed climate action after the crises of the 2040s exposes workers to untested green materials, poorly implemented technologies and informal work, while mass migration northwards drives down wages and working conditions. In Grassroots hope Europe (low climate and low OSH governance), geopolitical instability and war leave both climate and OSH neglected, yet cooperatives and community initiatives that value workers' well-being begin to emerge.
Each scenario highlights a group of vulnerable workers, from older people and informal workers to migrants and disabled workers. Read together, the scenarios show that climate action and worker protection need to advance hand in hand, and they provide the basis for the shared vision for 2050 developed in the third brief.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Climate-driven scenarios for future occupational safety and health in Europe 2050 [Policy brief]. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/climate-driven-scenarios-future-occupational-safety-and-health-europe-2050