This policy brief, the third of three from EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle on climate change and occupational safety and health (OSH), sets out a shared vision for 2050 of a safe, healthy and sustainable working environment in Europe. The vision was synthesised by the research team from the desirable elements of the four scenarios presented in the second brief, then discussed and refined with stakeholders in a workshop, whose contributions were analysed to derive implications for different stakeholder groups.
The vision is of a world of work that is climate-resilient, inclusive and safe for all, in which OSH is integrated into climate action, technological innovation and economic planning. Its key elements are a just transition, coordinated action between OSH and climate strategies, safety by design in green technologies and practices, ongoing monitoring and evaluation of emerging risks, adaptive, pragmatic and inclusive regulation, a focus on affected groups, and human-centred innovation. The brief also identifies the tensions and trade-offs on the way, including short-term crises that divert attention from long-term goals, financial pressures on businesses, resistance to behavioural change, global emissions and supply chains beyond Europe's reach, technologies deployed faster than safety frameworks can adapt, and the need for transparency and public engagement to keep policies legitimate.
Implications are outlined for governments and policymakers, employers and their representatives, workers and their representatives, intermediary bodies such as social partners and civil society organisations, and researchers and innovators. They range from aligning OSH and climate policies across departments and levels of governance, embedding OSH in corporate sustainability strategies and engaging workers in early-warning systems, to sector-specific roadmaps for safe and equitable green transitions and interdisciplinary research on new risks. The brief concludes that climate change is a profound social and economic disruptor, and that the green transition is much more likely to succeed with safe, healthy and supported workers.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). From vision to action: Climate-driven developments influencing future occupational safety and health and their implications for stakeholders [Policy brief]. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/vision-action-climate-driven-developments-influencing-future-occupational-safety-and-health-and-their-implications-stakeholders

This policy brief, the second of three from EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle on climate change and occupational safety and health (OSH), presents four scenarios for Europe in 2050. Developed and refined with expert participants in workshops, the scenarios are not predictions but plausible narratives that make possible futures tangible enough for policymakers and workplace stakeholders to reflect on their implications. Each combines a different level of two key dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance.
In Just transition Europe (high climate and high OSH governance), a rapid green transition is matched by proactive, joined-up OSH management, though old risks such as asbestos in retrofitting and outdoor work in extreme heat remain, especially for small firms. In OSH havens Europe (low climate, high OSH governance), Europe adapts through automation and AI, and a skilled minority enjoys excellent protection while most people live on a universal basic income, informal work grows and OSH standards are neglected in global supply chains. In Climate race Europe (high climate, low OSH governance), belated and rushed climate action after the crises of the 2040s exposes workers to untested green materials, poorly implemented technologies and informal work, while mass migration northwards drives down wages and working conditions. In Grassroots hope Europe (low climate and low OSH governance), geopolitical instability and war leave both climate and OSH neglected, yet cooperatives and community initiatives that value workers' well-being begin to emerge.
Each scenario highlights a group of vulnerable workers, from older people and informal workers to migrants and disabled workers. Read together, the scenarios show that climate action and worker protection need to advance hand in hand, and they provide the basis for the shared vision for 2050 developed in the third brief.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Climate-driven scenarios for future occupational safety and health in Europe 2050 [Policy brief]. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/climate-driven-scenarios-future-occupational-safety-and-health-europe-2050

This policy brief comes from EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle on climate change and occupational safety and health (OSH). It outlines the key factors and trends influenced by climate change that in turn shape OSH and the world of work in Europe over the next 10 to 25 years. It draws on an evidence review and on expert input gathered through an online survey and a stakeholder workshop, with participants from academia, research institutions, trade unions, employers' organisations and industry.
Seven interacting factors are examined: adaptation and mitigation strategies, automation and technology use, the circular economy, economic instability, climate-driven migration, new materials, and social and wealth disparities. Mitigation measures such as clean technologies and renewable energy can expose workers to novel materials, changed work processes and new skill needs, while adaptation measures may increase outdoor work and exposure to extreme weather or biological hazards. AI and digital tools can strengthen early warning and safety monitoring, but rushed deployment can outpace regulation. Economic losses from extreme weather may lead organisations to deprioritise prevention, migration can bring language barriers and informal work, and nanomaterials and biological agents carry risks that are not yet well understood, even though new materials can also improve protective equipment.
The brief concludes that the impacts of climate change on OSH are intensifying but remain uncertain, and that adaptation and mitigation, while crucial, can have unforeseen consequences for worker safety. It calls on stakeholders across sectors to plan in a coordinated and proactive way, anticipating these interactions and protecting vulnerable workers, including those outside formal employment.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Climate-driven trends influencing future occupational safety and health [Policy brief]. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/climate-driven-trends-influencing-future-occupational-safety-and-health 

This report, commissioned by the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA), explores the indirect and cascading impacts of climate change on occupational safety and health (OSH) and on the future of work in Europe over the next 10 to 25 years. It is the final report of EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle, delivered by RAND Europe in partnership with the Insight Foresight Institute and with the support of the Austrian Institute of Technology.
The study combined a scoping literature review and a PESTL analysis of climate-driven factors, a stakeholder survey and expert workshops. Four scenarios for 2050 were built on two dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance: Just transition Europe, OSH havens Europe, Climate race Europe and Grassroots hope Europe. They illustrate the pathways through which climate change and climate action may reshape labour markets, job roles and workplace risks, for instance through migration and informal work, the retrofitting of infrastructure, extreme heat or the rapid deployment of new technologies and materials.
Several cross-cutting themes emerge. Climate action is necessary but not without risk, since labour-market transitions that are not managed proactively can leave older, low-skilled and other vulnerable workers behind. A healthy and safe workforce is a precondition for the green transition, and climate policy that neglects OSH undermines the very resilience it seeks to build. Technology, including AI and digital systems, brings both new hazards and new means of prevention. The report sets out the target elements of a shared vision for 2050, the tensions and trade-offs on the way, and the implications for policymakers, employers and workers' representatives, intermediary organisations, workers and researchers, underlining the need for coordinated, inclusive and adaptive strategies.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Foresight study on the occupational safety and health implications of future climate change-related developments and crises. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/foresight-study-climate-change-implications-osh 

The European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) commissioned its fourth foresight cycle to explore the indirect and cascading impacts of climate change on occupational safety and health (OSH) and on the nature of work in Europe over the next 10 to 25 years. Earlier cycles had addressed green jobs, digitalisation and the circular economy. The study was delivered by RAND Europe in partnership with the Insight Foresight Institute and with the support of the Austrian Institute of Technology, as part of the Foresight on Demand consortium.
The study combined a scoping literature review and a PESTL analysis of climate-driven factors (March–April 2025), an expert survey (April–May 2025) and two workshops in three sessions between June and September 2025. Four scenarios were built on two dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance: Just transition Europe, OSH havens Europe, Climate race Europe and Grassroots hope Europe. Participants then discussed a shared vision for 2050, its tensions and trade-offs, and the steps that policymakers, employers and workers' representatives, intermediary organisations, workers and researchers could take to realise it.
The results were published by EU-OSHA in May 2026 as a final report, a summary and a series of three policy briefs on climate-driven trends, scenarios for 2050, and the vision and its implications for stakeholders.
Final report
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Foresight study on the occupational safety and health implications of future climate change-related developments and crises. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/foresight-study-climate-change-implications-osh
All outputs: https://osha.europa.eu/themes/climate-change/future-climate-change-related-developments-and-crises