The European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) commissioned its fourth foresight cycle to explore the indirect and cascading impacts of climate change on occupational safety and health (OSH) and on the nature of work in Europe over the next 10 to 25 years. Earlier cycles had addressed green jobs, digitalisation and the circular economy. The study was delivered by RAND Europe in partnership with the Insight Foresight Institute and with the support of the Austrian Institute of Technology, as part of the Foresight on Demand consortium.
The study combined a scoping literature review and a PESTL analysis of climate-driven factors (March–April 2025), an expert survey (April–May 2025) and two workshops in three sessions between June and September 2025. Four scenarios were built on two dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance: Just transition Europe, OSH havens Europe, Climate race Europe and Grassroots hope Europe. Participants then discussed a shared vision for 2050, its tensions and trade-offs, and the steps that policymakers, employers and workers' representatives, intermediary organisations, workers and researchers could take to realise it.
The results were published by EU-OSHA in May 2026 as a final report, a summary and a series of three policy briefs on climate-driven trends, scenarios for 2050, and the vision and its implications for stakeholders.
Final report
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Foresight study on the occupational safety and health implications of future climate change-related developments and crises. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/foresight-study-climate-change-implications-osh
All outputs: https://osha.europa.eu/themes/climate-change/future-climate-change-related-developments-and-crises
