Foresight Study on the OSH Implications of Future Climate Change-Related Developments and Crises

This report, commissioned by the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA), explores the indirect and cascading impacts of climate change on occupational safety and health (OSH) and on the future of work in Europe over the next 10 to 25 years. It is the final report of EU-OSHA's fourth foresight cycle, delivered by RAND Europe in partnership with the Insight Foresight Institute and with the support of the Austrian Institute of Technology.
The study combined a scoping literature review and a PESTL analysis of climate-driven factors, a stakeholder survey and expert workshops. Four scenarios for 2050 were built on two dimensions, climate governance and OSH governance: Just transition Europe, OSH havens Europe, Climate race Europe and Grassroots hope Europe. They illustrate the pathways through which climate change and climate action may reshape labour markets, job roles and workplace risks, for instance through migration and informal work, the retrofitting of infrastructure, extreme heat or the rapid deployment of new technologies and materials.
Several cross-cutting themes emerge. Climate action is necessary but not without risk, since labour-market transitions that are not managed proactively can leave older, low-skilled and other vulnerable workers behind. A healthy and safe workforce is a precondition for the green transition, and climate policy that neglects OSH undermines the very resilience it seeks to build. Technology, including AI and digital systems, brings both new hazards and new means of prevention. The report sets out the target elements of a shared vision for 2050, the tensions and trade-offs on the way, and the implications for policymakers, employers and workers' representatives, intermediary organisations, workers and researchers, underlining the need for coordinated, inclusive and adaptive strategies.
Reference
Maistrello, G., Sykes, K., Xu, L., Adams, A., Silfversten, E., & Könnölä, T. (2026). Foresight study on the occupational safety and health implications of future climate change-related developments and crises. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/foresight-study-climate-change-implications-osh