Which seeds of change are currently emerging and how can they be observed? The OBSERVE project set up an Observatory: Novel emerging needs, practices, collaborations and solutions were screened using a set of quantitative and qualitative methods of prospective analysis. In line with the mission of the European Commission’s Future and Emerging Technologies programme (FET), the project pointed to new directions for interdisciplinary research towards visionary technology of any kind. The overarching aim was to support Europe in grasping leadership early on in new and emerging technology areas. Therefore, developments were observed that promise to renew the basis for European competitiveness and growth while making a difference for society in the decades to come.
The project was structured into four work packages:
1. Horizon Scanning: OBSERVE implemented a bottom-up horizon scanning process to identify emerging topics.
The process was based on four pillars:
- Publication analysis
- FET Portfolio analysis
- Web mining
- Manual scouting
2. Multi-stakeholder Dialogue for Sense-making: OBSERVE set up a multi-stakeholder dialogue for interpreting and sense-making, thereby condensing the emerging topics into a list of candidates for “hotspots”.
3. Assessment: OBSERVE subjected the hotspot candidates to a multi-criteria assessment within an online expert dialogue to evaluate their potential for the FET programme. OBSERVE carefully captured the lessons learned in terms of methodology as a basis for establishing a rolling process that could be continued by the FET group beyond the project’s duration.
4. Dissemination: OBSERVE strengthened futures literacy, responsiveness and resilience for diverse actors across Europe through a tailored dissemination program.
An Advisory Board of outstanding foresight experts – Elena Hiltunen, Tatsuro Yoda, Anne Stenros and Radu Gheorghiu – supported the project by reviewing the methodology and findings at two critical junctures: after the end of the Horizon Scanning phase and upon delivery of the first potential hotspots. OBSERVE delivered project results ranging from a Horizon Scanning report to a one-page radar and a deck of cards capturing the emerging seeds of change.
