The study “Futures of AI: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and EU Policy” explores
plausible trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) development and assesses their implications
for Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. It aims to inform EU R&I policy and contribute
to the development of an AI, recognising AI as a technology with transformative potential across
sectors and long-term structural consequences for investment, governance and strategic
direction.

Key Findings 

• AI development is characterised by uncertainty, path dependencies and competing trajectories
  rather than a single predictable pathway.  
• AI adoption in the EU remains uneven and relatively low, with higher uptake in digitally mature
  and data-intensive sectors such as ICT and professional services; sectors like manufacturing
  and construction lag behind. Where AI is deployed, it is primarily used in supportive roles rather
  than as a transformative force reshaping core business models. 
• Future adoption trajectories diverge across sectoral profiles, ranging from deep integration in
  innovation-led sectors to incremental optimisation in operational sectors and largely
  supplementary use in service-oriented sectors. 
• Several structural barriers constrain broader diffusion, including market fragmentation, the
  dominance of SMEs with limited resources, insufficient access to high-quality and interoperable
  data and shortages of skilled professionals, while investment levels remain fragmented and
  comparatively modest. On the other side, ethical, security and trust concerns continue to shape
  adoption decisions.  
• The EU’s regulatory leadership, particularly through the AI Act, creates both opportunities for
  trust-building and risks of administrative burden if implementation is not carefully managed.  

The future of the European science system fundamentally depends on its researchers, and it is therefore essential to continue fostering attractive and sustainable research careers. Yet, a wide range of challenges is currently shaping both researchers’ professional trajectories and the broader EU research and innovation ecosystem.

Against this backdrop, DG Research & Innovation commissioned the Foresight On Demand team to conduct a study with the following objectives:

• Identify long term trends and disruptions affecting researchers’ careers in Europe.
• Develop plausible scenarios (to 2040) for the evolution of the EU’s researcher workforce.
• Propose policy pathways and identify challenges. The study will outline potential EU level policy approaches and governance reforms that could generate added value through coordinated action.

By informing policymaking, the study’s findings will aim to support greater coordination among Member States and strengthen the effectiveness of governance structures, funding mechanisms, and frameworks for research career development across Europe.

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