The study “Futures of AI: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and EU Policy” explores
plausible trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI) development and assesses their implications
for Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. It aims to inform EU R&I policy and contribute
to the development of an AI, recognising AI as a technology with transformative potential across
sectors and long-term structural consequences for investment, governance and strategic
direction.
Key Findings
- AI development is characterised by uncertainty, path dependencies and competing trajectories
rather than a single predictable pathway. - AI adoption in the EU remains uneven and relatively low, with higher uptake in digitally mature
and data-intensive sectors such as ICT and professional services; sectors like manufacturing
and construction lag behind. Where AI is deployed, it is primarily used in supportive roles rather
than as a transformative force reshaping core business models. - Future adoption trajectories diverge across sectoral profiles, ranging from deep integration in
innovation-led sectors to incremental optimisation in operational sectors and largely
supplementary use in service-oriented sectors. - Several structural barriers constrain broader diffusion, including market fragmentation, the
dominance of SMEs with limited resources, insufficient access to high-quality and interoperable
data and shortages of skilled professionals, while investment levels remain fragmented and
comparatively modest. On the other side, ethical, security and trust concerns continue to shape
adoption decisions. - The EU’s regulatory leadership, particularly through the AI Act, creates both opportunities for
trust-building and risks of administrative burden if implementation is not carefully managed.
