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ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

ANTICIPINNOV: Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

"Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation” (ANTICIPINNOV) project is a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the European Innovation Council (EIC) to strengthen strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches.

Learn more about the project from its's 3 different barnches.

 

Everybody is looking into the Future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation

 

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, present leading challenges in policy-making nowadays. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks, emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policy-making and preparedness.

 

The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation trends and signals produced by public and private entities outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support innovation funding prioritisation. Other insights were extracted, namely those related with the scope of the EIC Programme Manager portfolios.

 

Read the report

 

See the lessons learned from the blog post

 

 

Scanning deep tech horizons: Participatory collection and assessment of signals and trends

 

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Innovation Council (EIC) conducted a series of Horizon Scanning exercises across six EIC programme managers’ (PM) portfolios as part of an ongoing collaborative effort to strengthen EIC strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches. The fields covered include: Space Systems & Technologies; Quantum Technologies; Agriculture & Food; Solar Fuels & Chemicals; Responsible Electronics and Architecture, Engineering & Construction.

 

The main findings of this Horizon Scanning – the identification and analysis of ‘signals’ from nascent research, technologies, or trends on the periphery of the mainstream – show opportunities for investment in emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations that can advance EU competitiveness while also serving to support the EU’s long-term policy and societal visions.

Other insights were taken from this exercise, namely the identification of drivers, enablers and barriers to technology development and adoption, that could be the starting ground of further foresight exercises and policy initiatives.

 

The report highlights three main themes – sustainability, energy, and scalability, which are overarching across signals, drivers, enablers and barriers. And concludes with a series of recommendations to streamline Horizon Scanning activities in the specific context and needs of the EIC.

 

Read the report

 

Learn more about the process from a blog post

 

Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices

 

In times of growing uncertainties and complexities, anticipatory thinking is essential for policymakers. Technology foresight explores the longer-term futures of Science, Technology and Innovation. It can be used as a tool to create effective policy responses, including in technology and innovation policies, and to shape technological change.

 

In this report we present six anticipatory and technology foresight methods that can contribute to anticipatory intelligence in terms of public funding of innovation: the Delphi survey, genius forecasting, technology roadmapping, large language models used in foresight, horizon scanning and scenario planning.

Each chapter provides a brief overview of the method with case studies and recommendations.

The insights from this report show that only by combining different anticipatory viewpoints and approaches to spotting, understanding and shaping emergent technologies, can public funders such as the European Innovation Council improve their proactive approaches to supporting ground-breaking technologies. In this way, they will help innovation ecosystems to develop.

 

Read the report

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EXTERNAL LINKS

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OUTPUTS

Everybody is looking into the future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation.pdf

Blog

Albert Norström

Scanning deep tech horizons_Participatory Collection and Assessment of Signals and Trends.pdf

Blog

Albert Norström

Technology foresight for public funding of innovation.pdf

Blog

Albert Norström

MEET THE EXPERTS

Matthew Spaniol

Matthew Spaniol

Marco Bevolo

Marco Bevolo

Rafael Popper

Rafael Popper

Joao Farinha

Joao Farinha

RELATED BLOGS

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With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility
With Big Tech comes Big (Ethical) Responsibility
In a world pervaded by the rapid entrance and development of new technologies, the pace at which ethical concerns are addressed is not always in sync. TechEthos, a Horizon 2020 project, wants to facili-tate “ethics-by-design” in order to push forward ethical and societal values into the design and develop-ment of new and emerging technologies at the very beginning of the process.
Laura Galante

Laura Galante

Be part of the foresight community!

Share your insights! Let the Futures4Europe community know what you are working on and share insights from your foresight research or your foresight project.

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4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth
4Growth project - Understanding the Market to Forecast Future Growth
4Growth will showcase the uptake of digital technologies and data through the “4Growth Visualisation Platform” that will combine powerful storytelling with advanced visualisations of the market. This 3-year Horizon Europe project, funded by the European Commission, brings together 13 partners with the aim of understanding where, how and to what extent digital technologies and data are being adopted within the agricultural and forestry sectors. The project started in January 2024 and will end in December 2026. Consortium members: 2 Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands (Coordinator) 2 EVENFLOW, Belgium (Technical Managers) 3 GEOPONIKO PANEPISTIMION ATHINON, Greece 4 FOODSCALE HUB GREECE, Greece 5 LE EUROPE LIMITED, Ireland 6 FUTURE IMPACTS, Germany 7 SIMBIOTICA SL, Spain 8 EV ILVO: EIGEN VERMOGEN VAN HET INSTITUUT VOOR LANDBOUW- EN VISSERIJONDERZOEK, Belgium 9 INSTITUTO NAVARRO DE TECNOLOGIAS E INFRAESTRUCTURAS AGROALIMENTRIAS, Spain 10 CENTRE TECHNIQUE INTERPROFESSIONNEL DES FRUITS ET LEGUMES, France 11 TEKNOLOGIAN TUTKIMUSKESKUS VTT OY, Finland 12 AgriFood Lithuania DIH, Lithuania 13 ARISTOTELIO PANEPISTIMIO THESSALONIKIS, Greece

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Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries
Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries
The foresight exercise listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others. For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications.These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases. Read the report

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Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation
Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation
FAO’s Office of Innovation worked with partners on an FAO Chief Scientist initiative on Foresight on emerging agrifood technologies and innovations, aligned with the UN 2.0 process and the FOFA 2022: engaging all key actors of agricultural innovation systems in the foresight on emerging technologies and innovations to better prepare for alternative futures, feeding it into anticipatory action, and convening the global community for constructive dialogue and knowledge exchange. The aim was to support policymakers, investors and innovation actors in their approaches and decision-making.   The study assesses a selection of technologies and innovations, which potentially could be of paramount importance in addressing agrifood challenges until 2050, as well as the most important trends and drivers that will influence the emergence of agrifood technologies and innovations and their triggers of change, including some regional aspects. The goal is also to build plausible future scenarios for the evolvement of the emerging technologies and innovations in the future with the time horizon of 2050 to inform future-oriented policymaking.   The report is built with inputs from a multistakeholder Delphi survey and online workshops with experts.   Alexandrova-Stefanova, N., Nosarzewski, K., Mroczek, Z.K., Audouin, S., Djamen, P., Kolos, N. & Wan, J. 2023. Harvesting change: Harnessing emerging technologies and innovations for agrifood system transformation – Global foresight synthesis report. Rome. FAO and Cirad.

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Eye of Europe - The Research and Innovation foresight community
Eye of Europe - The Research and Innovation foresight community
As a Coordination and Support Action funded by the EU, project “Eye of Europe” aims to enhance the integration of foresight practices into Research and Innovation (R&I) policy making across Europe. Ultimately, the project envisions a more cohesive and influential R&I foresight community that contributes significantly, as a collective intelligence, to shaping and guiding policy decisions. To this end, Eye of Europe builds on existing initiatives and experiences to foster knowledge-sharing between foresight practitioners and policy makers, attract domain experts in foresight endeavours, and engage a broader audience in futures thinking. Nurturing futures4europe as the online home for the community and running various face-to-face events with different stakeholders will underpin these ambitions. The project runs between November 2023 - October 2026 and relies, methodologically, on the following building blocks: Futures4Europe.eu as the online hub for the R&I foresight community in Europe: The existing platform will be upgraded to better accommodate the interests of various stakeholders such as foresight experts, beneficiaries, domain experts, and an active audience. It will operate on multiple integration levels, from mapping organizations and experts to sharing foresight results and capabilities. Moreover, it will act as the communication gateway for ongoing foresight activities, events, educational and inspirational materials. More on the platform here. Sharing of practices: This entails mapping institutions engaged in R&I foresight activities, promoting mutual learning through interactive formats, developing shared visions for the future of foresight in R&I policy within the European Research Area (ERA), fostering exchanges among the foresight in R&I policy community through conferences, encouraging dialogues between futurist/expert communities, academics and policy practitioners. Key figures: 5 mutual learning events (MLE): 2 online, 3 face-to-face events; 1 vision building event for the Future of R&I Foresight in ERA; 2 conferences Running foresight pilots: Conducting a series of pilot workshops and online consultations with diverse formats, methodologies, and participants. This involves identifying topics of common interest within the European Research Area (ERA), where foresight perspectives offer added value, designing and implementing tailored pilot foresight activities involving various stakeholders, harnessing lessons learnt and feeding them into the platform and other dissemination channels. Key figures: 11 Foresight pilot processes: 3 exclusively with citizens, 4  mainly with experts and researchers tackling specific R&I topics, 4 involving a bespoke group of participants. Out of the 11 events,  8 will be face-to-face events, and 3 pilots will take place online Boosting futures literacy: The project encourages meaningful engagement with diverse audiences, from foresight professionals, researchers, policy-makers to various futures sensitive profiles (e.g. entrepreneurs, journalists, artists) and the wider civil society. The project will provide guides, methodology toolboxes, and training modules for R&I foresight and futures literacy, incorporating written and multimedia content. Key figures: 5-10 short training sets for participants in foresight exercises; 1 training module for foresight beneficiaries; 1 foresight training for early career researchers, 1 Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on R&I foresight; 12 conversational podcasts; 6-8 Short videos and/or animated materials showcasing foresight processes and outcomes Fueling the public discourse around futures: Promoting the project and fostering the foresight community via the online platform Futures4Europe and complementary channels such as social media and a dedicated newsletter. In addition to highlighting the project's own initiatives, Eye of Europe will also aim to promote foresight content developed in other projects, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives and insights within the foresight field. The quarterly newsletter will feature various content types like interviews, project updates, and foresight-related articles. Social media, particularly futures4europe's LinkedIn page, will be used to engage professional communities and wider audiences, with a focus on sharing project activities and fostering discussions. Eye of Europe leverages the experience of 18 partners across Europe coming from all walks of foresight expertise and practice: Unitatea Executiva Pentru Finantarea Invatamantului Superior A Cercetarii Dezvoltarii Si Inovarii (UEFISCDI) – coordinator Austrian Institute Of Technology GmbH (AIT) Fraunhofer Gesellschaft Zur Forderung Der Angewandten Forschung EV (Fraunhofer) Turun Yliopisto (UTU) VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH (VDI/VDE IT) Deutsches Zentrum Fur Luft - Und Raumfahrt (DLR) Fundacao Para A Ciencia E A Tecnologia (FCT) Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche (CNR) Technologicke Centrum Praha ZSPO (TC Praha) Agentia Nationala pentru Cercetare si Dezvoltare (ANCD) Urad Vlady Slovenskej Republiky (UV SR) Asociatia Institutul De Prospectiva (Prospectiva) Institut National De Recherche Pour L'agriculture, L'alimentation Et L'environnement (INRAE) S. MANTZANAKIS KAI SIA O.E (Helenos) Insight Foresight Institute SL (IFI) ARCTIK SRL (ARCTIK) Kozgazdasag- Es Regionalis Tudomanyi Kutatokozpont (CERS) Technopolis

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