This case study formed part of the Foresight on Demand project 'S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions', carried out for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Conducted by Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute) with Carlo Sessa and Daniel Rodríguez Cassolà, it explored how science, technology and innovation can support the socio-economic transformation of production and consumption systems towards a regenerative economy that ensures prosperity and well-being for all on a healthy planet.

Using the Three Horizons framework, the case study develops scenarios for different forms of regenerative economy, each coupled with one of the project's perspectives on ecosystem stewardship. Horizon 1, the eco-efficient market, limits environmental degradation through new eco-efficient technologies and is paired with protecting and restoring socio-ecological systems. Horizon 2, the circular economy, is presented as a possible pathway between the first and third horizons and is paired with co-shaping socio-ecological systems. Horizon 3, the symbiotic economy, converts today's economy into a radically different model and is paired with immersing in and caring within hybrid collectives.

The study frames the regenerative economy as a possible next stage in the evolution of capitalism, in which economic vigour stems from human and societal vitality rooted in ecological health. In contrast to GDP-centred conventional economics, it treats economic and financial health as inseparable from human, societal and environmental health, and values diversity, integrity and fairness. Like the other case studies of the project, it concludes with implications for research and innovation policy in the context of the European Green Deal.

Reference: Könnölä, T., Sessa, C., & Cassolà, D. (2023). Case study 4: Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy. In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, K. Kubeczko et al., S&T&I for 2050: Science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – Accelerating sustainability transitions. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2777/100029 

Earth4All is an international initiative to accelerate the systems-change we need for an equitable future on a finite planet. Our analysis combines the best available science with new economic thinking. We found that the next ten years must see the fastest economic transformation in history if we want to steer humanity away from social and ecological catastrophe. 

Earth4All started as a vibrant collective of leading economic thinkers, scientists, policy leaders, and advocates, convened by The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Norwegian Business School.

Building on the legacies of The Limits to Growth and the Planetary Boundaries frameworks, science is at the heart of our work. Leading scientists have developed state of the art systems dynamic models and run different scenarios for possible plausible futures.

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We are providing a platform to connect and amplify the voices of people and organisations who want to upgrade our economies. The momentum is growing, with communities and policy makers around the world pushing for economic systems change.