This case study formed part of the Foresight on Demand project 'S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions', carried out for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Led by Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute) and Philine Warnke (Fraunhofer ISI), it explored how a strong focus on ecosystem flourishing could change current thinking about competition over land use.

The analysis examined the dynamics of global land use from diverse perspectives: deforestation and reforestation, agriculture, land degradation, biofuels and renewable energy, mining and quarrying, land grabbing, land health as an underlying driver of pandemics, rewilding, tourism, urban sprawl versus densification, floor space per person, human-scale city planning and the ownership of public space. On this basis, the experts developed three alternative scenarios. In 'Efficiency and optimisation of land use' (P1), heavy exploitation continues and land across the EU is matched to its most productive use in a highly globalised Europe. In 'Towards effective multiple use of land' (P2), a less globalised Europe meets its needs regionally, with land serving several purposes at once, such as grazing, recreation and timber production. In 'Land use adapting to nature' (P3), after a series of crises and system breakdowns caused by climate catastrophe, humans are forced to engage seriously with ecosystems, drawing on Indigenous legal thinking about land and early initiatives such as recognising the rights of ecosystems.

The case study highlights key trade-offs between efficiency and sustainability. Single-use approaches maximise local efficiency but risk harming ecosystems by ignoring systemic effects; multiple use requires substantial learning to integrate diverse practices across urban and rural settings; and the immersive approach aligns with nature-based solutions and Indigenous knowledge. Together, the scenarios frame a paradigm shift from human-centred exploitation of land towards nature-adaptive relationships, with implications for research and innovation policy in the context of the European Green Deal.

Reference: Könnölä, T., & Warnke, P. (2023). Case study 2: Land use futures. In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, K. Kubeczko et al., S&T&I for 2050: Science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – Accelerating sustainability transitions. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2777/100029 

This case study formed part of the Foresight on Demand project 'S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions', carried out for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Conducted by Totti Könnölä (Insight Foresight Institute) with Carlo Sessa and Daniel Rodríguez Cassolà, it explored how science, technology and innovation can support the socio-economic transformation of production and consumption systems towards a regenerative economy that ensures prosperity and well-being for all on a healthy planet.

Using the Three Horizons framework, the case study develops scenarios for different forms of regenerative economy, each coupled with one of the project's perspectives on ecosystem stewardship. Horizon 1, the eco-efficient market, limits environmental degradation through new eco-efficient technologies and is paired with protecting and restoring socio-ecological systems. Horizon 2, the circular economy, is presented as a possible pathway between the first and third horizons and is paired with co-shaping socio-ecological systems. Horizon 3, the symbiotic economy, converts today's economy into a radically different model and is paired with immersing in and caring within hybrid collectives.

The study frames the regenerative economy as a possible next stage in the evolution of capitalism, in which economic vigour stems from human and societal vitality rooted in ecological health. In contrast to GDP-centred conventional economics, it treats economic and financial health as inseparable from human, societal and environmental health, and values diversity, integrity and fairness. Like the other case studies of the project, it concludes with implications for research and innovation policy in the context of the European Green Deal.

Reference: Könnölä, T., Sessa, C., & Cassolà, D. (2023). Case study 4: Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy. In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, K. Kubeczko et al., S&T&I for 2050: Science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – Accelerating sustainability transitions. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2777/100029 

We are living through a transition that feels, at once, like collapse and awakening. The crises surrounding us—ecological breakdown, technological acceleration, geopolitical fragmentation—are often treated as separate problems. But they are not. They are symptoms of a deeper rupture: a failure in how we perceive reality itself.

This is the beginning of the “Big Shift.” Not merely a historical turning point, but a transformation in consciousness. The dominant frameworks through which humanity has understood itself—nation, progress, even “humanity” as a unified moral subject—are no longer sufficient. They fragment under pressure because they were never grounded in the deeper fabric of existence. They abstracted us from the Earth, from each other, and ultimately from being itself.

Long before modern crises, ancient traditions understood something we have forgotten: the Earth is not an object. It is a living, sacred reality. Early liturgical texts and cosmologies did not separate matter from meaning. To speak of the Earth was already to speak of order, of balance, of participation in a larger whole. This was not “ecology” in the modern scientific sense—it was a lived metaphysics.

What has been lost is not knowledge in the narrow sense, but a way of knowing. The modern world, in its pursuit of control and clarity, reduced reality to what can be measured, extracted, and optimized. Technology is not the root problem; it is an extension of this perception. We did not simply build machines—we built a worldview that sees the world as machine.

And so we arrive at a strange paradox: we speak constantly of “saving humanity,” yet we do not even know what “humanity” means. It is an abstraction, a moral placeholder, often detached from real conditions and embedded inequalities. In trying to center humanity, we displaced the Earth. And in doing so, we undermined the very conditions that make human life possible.

A different orientation is needed. Not a rejection of humanity, but a re-centering within a larger field of existence. To love the Earth is not a poetic gesture—it is an ethical necessity. It means recognizing that harm to ecosystems is not external damage but a form of self-destruction. It means reframing ethics from human-centered to Earth-centered, from domination to participation.

This is where the future becomes most uncertain—and most significant. Artificial intelligence and emerging technologies are often framed in terms of capability and risk. But the deeper question is ontological: what kind of intelligence are we creating? If intelligence is participation, then ethical design requires more than safeguards—it requires alignment with the structures of reality itself.

We stand, then, at a threshold. The path forward is not a return to the past, nor a blind leap into technological futurism. It is a synthesis—a planetary civilization that draws from ancient wisdom while engaging modern knowledge. A civilization that recognizes the plurality of perspectives without losing sight of underlying unity.

This requires new forms of leadership, new frameworks of foresight, and a redefinition of progress. Not growth for its own sake, but alignment with the conditions that sustain life and meaning.

Ultimately, the future is not something we predict. It is something we participate in. Every action, every perception, contributes to the unfolding of reality. The question is not whether change is coming—it is whether we are capable of aligning with it.

To become planetary beings is not to transcend the Earth, but to belong to it fully. To act with awareness that we are not separate observers, but active participants in a living, dynamic cosmos.

The shift has already begun. The only question is whether we recognize it—and whether we are willing to follow it to its conclusion.

A new European Partnership is to be established as part of the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, 'Horizon Europe': the 'European Partnership on Social Transformations and Resilience' (STR). To define this partnership's specific research and innovation priorities, the DLR Project Management Agency conducted four strategic foresight cycles on Supporting the modernisation of social protection systems; Shaping the future of work; Fostering education and skills development; Contributing to a fair transition towards climate neutrality. On this basis, the DLR-PT team elaborated a first draft of the Partnership's strategy for 2027-2033. 

As part of the project, the DLR-PT convened around 40 European experts for a backcasting workshop in Bonn on 28 and 29 January 2026. This two-day event, held under the title of "Towards a Strategic Research & Innovation Agenda for the STR Partnership", aimed to translate four best-case scenarios from previous foresight cycles into concrete research and innovation priorities for the future STR partnership's Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda (SRIA). In the workshop, the DLR-PT's strategic foresight team worked with the Humanities and Cultural Heritage Unit to use the backcasting method. Starting from a desirable target vision for 2040, participants identified key milestones (including those for 2033 and 2037), as well as necessary framework conditions, potential obstacles, and action steps, thinking backwards from the future to the present. Specifically, the participants first developed priority measures and then used these to define research and innovation priorities for the strategy. By the end of the workshop, the experts had developed up to six thematic priorities for each of the impact areas in the future Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda.

The European Partnership on Social Transformations and Resilience is currently being prepared and is expected to start in 2027. The Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda, with its implementation-oriented research priorities, will serve members of the partnership as a basis for future calls for proposals.

This foresight report looks at how Europe’s food, energy and mobility systems and the built environment could evolve. The report takes four imagined futures, or ‘imaginaries’, developed by the EEA and its network – Eionet, and explores how Europe’s key systems might evolve under each possible future.

We help people and organisations imagine, work with, and shape their future. 

CIFS is one of the worlds oldest think tanks exclusively focusing on foresight. CIFS teach very popular courses in foresight, gives key notes and launch various initiatives and do research projects. CIFS is a self-owned think tank, completely independent of special interests. 

Supports the economic growth in South-East Europe by promoting innovative solutions and facilitating the transfer of technologies and know-how. 

The first organization in the South- East region to implement foresight methods to shape public policy.

The European Topic Centre on Sustainability Transitions (ETC ST) is a consortium of twelve European organisations working in partnership with the European Environment Agency under a Framework Partnership Agreement for the period 2022-2026.

The ETC ST provides support to the European Environment Agency (EEA) regarding sustainability transitions. The ETC ST aims to deliver insights that contribute to understanding of sustainability transition challenges and opportunities. The aim is to enhance knowledge base to provide support to European Union policies.

The ETC ST contributes to the three following actions:

• Monitoring and assessing sustainability transitions in Europe through systemic lenses
• Analysing sustainability transitions enablers: economics, finance, innovation, policies, and governance across scales
• Developing co-created knowledge for action, including foresight, with stakeholders.